Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Sundog]

I don't buy the global warming hoax/bs for one second myself.

Lol this is rich. Why? Because it was cold in February over 2% of the Earth's surface?

It's a hoax! Just like moon landing!

[Isotherm]

May IRI models:

 

 

 

Average, dynamical models 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1

 

Average, statistical models 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1

 

Average, all models 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1

 

 

Average of the latest IRI models have a 1.5c peak in SON, and a weakening trend to 1.2c in DJF. Even the dynamical have a 1.7c peak in October, and down to 1.3c by January.

[Isotherm]

Thanks for the link, I forgot to post it. The fact that Dr. Roundy is saying that this Nino may peak stronger than '97-'98 did it just crazy. Region 1+2 is insanely warm right now and keeps getting warmer

 

 

The latest 30-day running SOI is around -16. May of 1997 had an SOI of -22.4. We're not going to make it that strongly negative. Of course, the SOI is only one measure of ENSO, but it can be indicative of the overall intensity of the incoming ENSO event. Thus far, I'd say the SOI has been indicative of an oncoming moderate to strong El Nino. But for someone to say we have a high chance of beating 1997-98; that's certainly going out on a limb at this fickle time of year for ENSO forecasting. I would wait another month at least before entertaining such possibilities. I think it's clear the probabilities are increasing for a high end moderate to strong Nino.

 

SOI is not always a clear measure as well. The last strongly negatively May SOI's were 2005 -14.5 and 2002 at -14.5 which peaked at moderate Nino.

[snowman19]

The latest 30-day running SOI is around -16. May of 1997 had an SOI of -22.4. We're not going to make it that strongly negative. Of course, the SOI is only one measure of ENSO, but it can be indicative of the overall intensity of the incoming ENSO event. Thus far, I'd say the SOI has been indicative of an oncoming moderate to strong El Nino. But for someone to say we have a high chance of beating 1997-98; that's certainly going out on a limb at this fickle time of year for ENSO forecasting. I would wait another month at least before entertaining such possibilities. I think it's clear the probabilities are increasing for a high end moderate to strong Nino.

SOI is not always a clear measure as well. The last strongly negatively May SOI's were 2005 -14.5 and 2002 at -14.5 which peaked at moderate Nino.

I'm kinda surprised Dr. Roundy feels that confident at this point that this is going to turn into a super Nino. But he knows a lot more then I do lol. There is pretty good model consensus that this El Niño peaks in October/November

[snowman19]

This goes to show what the current near moderate El Nino SST profile along with a

strong atmospheric response can do this time of year. This is the new wettest month

on record at OKC easily beating the previous record of 14.66 set in June 1989.

https://twitter.com/hebrooks87

The 17.61 for May (as of 854 PM) means 20.46 for 14 April-23 May, the rainiest 40 days and 40 nights in OKC history. #okwx @NWSNorman

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/getrecords.php?id=okc&mo=tta&type=tp

The atmosphere is already behaving like we are in a strong El Niño

[ineedsnow]

How is it way off when its for june july and august?

Well that's obviously already way off in the southern plains and the northeast US with record rainfall in TX/OK and barely anything in the northeast.

[jm1220]

This goes to show what the current near moderate El Nino SST profile along with a

strong atmospheric response can do this time of year. This is the new wettest month 

on record at OKC easily beating the previous  record of 14.66  set in June 1989.

 

https://twitter.com/hebrooks87

 

The 17.61 for May (as of 854 PM) means 20.46 for 14 April-23 May, the rainiest 40 days and 40 nights in OKC history. #okwx @NWSNorman

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/getrecords.php?id=okc&mo=tta&type=tp

The flooding around where I am is almost unprecedented. The San Marcos and Blanco Rivers reached record crests today-these flow through the towns immediately south of Austin-Kyle and San Marcos. To think that we're at this point now from a multi-year drought makes it all the more incredible.

[snowman19]

El Nino 3.4 continues to move into moderate territory at +1.1 on the latest update.

The +2.6 is the warmest Nino 1+2 reading since 97-98. This kind of warming

so far east is a departure for the 2000's so far which has been dominated

by more west based or Modiki activity. The very strong westerly wind burst pattern

is continuing unabated in the Tropical Pacific which drives the El Nino development.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

20MAY2015 2.6 1.2 1.1 1.1

u.anom.90.5S-5N.png

Excellent post and point about this being truly east-based. Really since 2000 we have seen either central-based or west-based "modoki" Ninos. So this is definitely a change from the previous 14 years

[snowman19]

We'll see if the long range models are correct in showing the strongest warming going into the early summer more east

and migrating a little further west to the more central 3 -3.4 zones by fall.

If this becomes a super El Niño, chances are it stays east-based like all the others in the past have.

[uncle W]

nino 3.4 has been 1.0 for the last three weeks...it's leveled off a bit...

It hasn't updated today yet...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[snowman19]

It updated here, but there hasn't been the weekly discussion update yet since it's a holiday today.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

06MAY2015 26.9 2.3 28.4 1.2 28.8 1.0 29.9 1.2

13MAY2015 26.4 2.1 28.2 1.1 28.8 1.0 29.8 1.1

20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1

That's impressive, region 3.4 up to +1.1C this early in the season and region 1+2 is ridiculously warm already

[Isotherm]

That's impressive, region 3.4 up to +1.1C this early in the season and region 1+2 is ridiculously warm already

 

 

One also must consider the fact that this +ENSO event may very well peak in late summer/early autumn and begin weakening by October/November/December. The best analog since 1950 for the following ENSO progression: weak Nino onset late in year 1, intensifying to moderate / strong Nino by mid year 2, then ending early in year 3, is 1987. In late 1986 a weak Nino developed - it became moderate by early 1987, strengthened to strong by the summer of 1987, peaked in August/September, and weakened to low-end moderate for the DJF 1987-88 winter, ending in March of 1988.

 

Not saying we'll definitely follow that progression, but that multiyear +ENSO period seems like a pretty good analog right now, so it's quite possible we see a peak earlier than the Nov-Jan typical time frame.

 

1987 was ahead of the 1997 super Nino as well in May, but it reached a maximum in late summer/leveled, then weakened, rather than continuing to intensify, and intensify over > 2.0c criteria in region 3.4. My point is that our position relative to 1997 at this time is only semi-relevant, as the timing peak of the +ENSO event could manifest much differently. 1996-97 was cold neutral/borderline weak La Nina until early spring; we had a weak El Nino already in place this past winter.

[snowman19]

One also must consider the fact that this +ENSO event may very well peak in late summer/early autumn and begin weakening by October/November/December. The best analog since 1950 for the following ENSO progression: weak Nino onset late in year 1, intensifying to moderate / strong Nino by mid year 2, then ending early in year 3, is 1987. In late 1986 a weak Nino developed - it became moderate by early 1987, strengthened to strong by the summer of 1987, peaked in August/September, and weakened to low-end moderate for the DJF 1987-88 winter, ending in March of 1988.

Not saying we'll definitely follow that progression, but that multiyear +ENSO period seems like a pretty good analog right now, so it's quite possible we see a peak earlier than the Nov-Jan typical time frame.

1987 was ahead of the 1997 super Nino as well in May, but it reached a maximum in late summer/leveled, then weakened, rather than continuing to intensify, and intensify over > 2.0c criteria in region 3.4. My point is that our position relative to 1997 at this time is only semi-relevant, as the timing peak of the +ENSO event could manifest much differently. 1996-97 was cold neutral/borderline weak La Nina until early spring; we had a weak El Nino already in place this past winter.

Most models, as of right now, are showing an October peak, which is kinda early

[jm1220]

Too bad the Nino-enhanced STJ hasn't been affecting California much. Austin is at between 13 and 18 inches of rain this month. Camp Mabry has close to 17 inches and is at its wettest May ever. 

[snowman19]

We have a very small sample size of 2nd year events with the more reliable post 1950 ENSO data.

But the two in 69-70 and 86-87 did peak in the fall instead of the winter. So maybe that's part of

the dynamic the early models are picking up on. We'll just have to monitor the next few months

to see if the models follow through on this. We also saw a strong year like 65-66 peak in the fall.

It would probably be helpful to get a peak in October especially if it's on the strong side.

El Nino winters naturally have their best cold and snow potential from January 15-through

Feb 28th and sometimes into March. So the more the El Nino has a chance to weaken

by this important time, the better it could potentially be for us. But still too far out in

time for anything more than speculation.

Yea, I think it's starting to become all but certain this is going to be at minimum at strong event. Region 3.4 is already well on it way to exceeding +1.5C. Like you said the question is, do we really see an October or November peak? Or are the models rushing it again like they do with long wave pattern changes? I think the next month will be very telling

[SACRUS]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

The El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate sea surface temperatures will remain well above El Niño thresholds at least into the southern hemisphere spring.

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators show a clear El Niño signal. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for nearly two months, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased, and the 90-day average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now below −10.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the strength of El Niño doesn't directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia's climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the majority of the Indian Ocean being warmer than average. Of the five international models that monitor the IOD, three suggest a positive IOD event is likely later in 2015. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

 

Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have increased in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, meaning the area of warm anomalies in the tropical Pacific now more resembles a classical El Niño pattern (i.e. a warm tongue extending along the equator from the South American coastline to around the Date Line). While anomalies in the far western equatorial Pacific have returned to neutral, the horseshoe shaped band of cool anomalies surrounding the warm tongue has not yet developed.

The SST anomaly map for the week ending 24 May shows warm anomalies in excess of +2 °C in parts of the far eastern equatorial Pacific and along part of the South American coast, with anomalies in excess of +1 °C present across most of the remaining equatorial Pacific to just west of the Date Line. All five NINO indices again exceeded +1 °C this week. Likewise, averaged over the past four weeks all NINO indices have averaged more than +1 °C. This is the first time this has occurred since the 1997–98 El Niño.

Warm anomalies also remain across a large part of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, extending down the western coastline of both North and South America. Over the past few weeks, SSTs surrounding Australia have cooled, with much of the country now surrounded by near-average SSTs. Some weak warm anomalies remain in areas to Australia’s east.

The SST anomaly map for April shows water across the entire equatorial Pacific east of 150°E was warmer than average. Water was also warmer than average over much of the northeastern Pacific Basin, along the coastline of South America, adjacent to Australia’s east coast, and across large parts of the Indian Ocean.

 

 

 

 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped further over the past two weeks, remaining firmly within El Niño values. The latest 30-day SOI value to 24 May is −17.4. The 30-day SOI has remained below El Niño thresholds for more than two weeks. The 90-day SOI has also dropped below −10; indicative of a persistent three-month period of higher atomspheric pressure in the western Pacific.

 

 

Trade winds over all but the far eastern tropical Pacific for the 5 days ending 24 May were weaker than average. Over the far western Pacific trade winds were in fact reversed (i.e. westerly—see map). Trade winds have been consistently weaker than average, and on occasion reversed in direction, since the start of 2015.

During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

 

 

All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Niño thresholds through the southern hemisphere winter and at least well into spring.

There is some spread between model averages for the individual models surveyed, and greater spread between ensemble members within several of the individual models; this underscores that while substantial warming is expected, it is still too early to determine with confidence what the peak ocean temperatures for this El Niño will be. However, the consistency of model outlooks for further warming right through into the southern hemisphere spring, as opposed to some disagreement between models at this time last year, indicates a low likelihood of the current event breaking down rapidly.

 

[uncle W]

nino 3.4 has been 1.0 for the last three weeks...it's leveled off a bit...

It hasn't updated today yet...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

it updated to+1.1 for last week...I looked at seven second el nino years since 1871 on the old mei scale...

1900...peaked at 1.713 in the Apr/May period...+0.438 in the Nov/Dec period...

1905...peaked at 1.954 in the June/July period. +1.232 in the Nov/Dec period...

1914...peaked at 1.328 in the Aug/Sept period. +1.257 in the Nov/Dec period...

1930...peaked at 1.925 in the Nov/Dec period...

1940...peaked at 1.441 in the Mar/Apr period...+0.967 in the Nov/Dec period...peaked again at 2.269 in A/M 1942...

1969...peaked at 1.219 in the May/June period. +0.744 in the Nov/Dec period...

1987...peaked at 2.343 in the July/Aug period...+1.490 in the Nov/Dec period...

[SomeWeatherGeek]

I hope this doesn't happen as the 97-98 winter only brought a measly 5 inches of snow to Central Park in late March lol.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/el-nino-seen-strengthening-as-pacific-ocean-s-heat-mimics-1997?cmpid=yhoo

[jm1220]

1997 (a strong Nino year) also was known for severe weather in the South that spring. That year brought F4 and F5 tornadoes near Austin. 1982 set a May rain record in Dallas (prior to the strong 82-83 Nino).

[GaWx]

^{Fwiw, based on the JMA and old monthly 3.4 records, here were the peaks for past 2nd year El Nino's that were strong:}

 

^{1877: Nov/Dec.}

^{1888: Nov/Dec}

^{1896: Nov}

^{1905: Jul-Oct}

^{1940-1: Feb}

^{1987: Sep}

 

 ^{I'm not sure how much lessening effect there is with an early peak as regards US winter impacts due to possible lag effects. I'd call 1905 and 1987 as the early peakers of 2nd year strong. They would be the ones to check. Nov or Dec peaks are not really early relative to most Nino's. That is about the average.}

[uncle W]

1977-78 was a two year el nino...the mei peaked just over 1.000 in Sept/Oct 1977...it was a weak two year event with a great winter in 1977-78..

[snowman19]

^{Fwiw, based on the JMA and old monthly 3.4 records, here were the peaks for past 2nd year El Nino's that were strong:}

^{1877: Nov/Dec.}

^{1888: Nov/Dec}

^{1896: Nov}

^{1905: Jul-Oct}

^{1940-1: Feb}

^{1987: Sep}

^{I'm not sure how much lessening effect there is with an early peak as regards US winter impacts due to possible lag effects. I'd call 1905 and 1987 as the early peakers of 2nd year strong. They would be the ones to check. Nov or Dec peaks are not really early relative to most Nino's. That is about the average.}

Thanks for the info, not a big sample size being that this is so unusual. If you take all the models as a whole at the moment, October/November seems like the time for this to peak, but who knows if this will still be the consensus a month from now. 2nd year strong Ninos are not common to say the least

[snowman19]

Bluewave, looks like there is yet another strong WWB and very strong downwelling Kelvin wave forming thanks to the previous non stop WWBs this month. Was just reading HM and Eric Blake on twitter. We are about to see some more major strengthening over the next several weeks...

[snowman19]

Yeah, it looks like we are going to rank fairly high on the May WWB update when it comes out next week.

The strongest WWB May since 1950 was 1987 with 1972 and 1997 coming in right behind.

Updated through May 2014

WWB.png

The warming going on in the eastern El Nino regions, namely region 1+2 and region 3 is just crazy right now and it continues unabated. I think records may be broke in those regions for warmth, they are already way above normal

[NinjaWarrior2]

Still early but I believe about equal chances of a Moderate or Strong El Niño.

[snowman19]

Still early but I believe about equal chances of a Moderate or Strong El Niño.

It is already moderate and still strengthening

[snowman19]

The most interesting thing to see is if some of the models are correct that we'll see an

early peak in the El Nino during sometime between July and October. While several other

dynamical models aren't this early, the second year 1987 El Nino followed this pattern.

But we'll probably need to get through the summer before judging which set of

models is on the right track.

poama.nino34.small.png

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1may2015.gif

nino34.GFDL.png

The POAMA is the earliest of the models but most are favoring an October or November peak as of right now, will be interesting. At this point, a strong Nino is all but a certainty

[snowman19]

It will be interesting to see since the POAMA was one of the first models last May to correctly forecast that the El

Nino last winter would be weak while the Euro was going strong and the CFS moderate. The GFDL also has

an earlier peak and it correctly forecast a weak El Nino last winter in May. But we'll probably need a few months

to sort things out before settling on one group of models or another since the current model spread is very wide

for an ENSO outlook.

1987 may be a decent analog depending on what it does in the coming months, however this one looks like it may peak stronger than the 1987 Nino did, it's well on its way already

[snowman19]

Yeah, it's still a bit early to guess the final number yet. The monthly 3.4 peak in 1987 was +1.76C in August.

We'll probably need a few more months to know if there is an earlier peak or more traditional one.

Anything sooner than November is considered early.

El Nino peak months since 1980:

Jan...83

Jan...87

Aug...87

Feb...92

Dec...94

Dec...97

Nov...02

Dec..04

Dec..06

Dec..09

Nov..14

Yea, any peak before November would certainly be unusual. The CFS is showing a real strong WWB pattern continuing in June if it's correct, we are in for some major strengthening ahead

[snowman19]

The very small sample size for this event is leading to more uncertainty in the forecast now until we get some clarification

on timing and peak of the intensity in the next few months.

http://www.climate.g...ked-high-school

A special snowflake

Speaking of typical events, though – this is not one of them. As you can see below, it is unusual for sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region to start off warm in the winter and then continue to be warm through the spring and summer. In the 60-year record, only one El Niño event, in 1986-1987, had similar behavior. The evolution and strength of this event might be a little easier to predict if it were starting at a more typical time of year.

The WWBs have been relentless, according to Eric Blake, we are about 2 weeks ahead of where we were in 1997 as far as this Nino's development up to this point