Isotherm Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Don the equatorial SOI average for June to August was the lowest on record since 1950. Impressive to say the least That isn't correct as per the numbers I see. The JJA SOI average was lower in 1982, 1997, and essentially identical to 1965 (which, probably not coincidentally, is close to my expected peak trimonthly value). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 although above normal 1997 had a colder December in NYC than 1965-1982-1957 and others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 What's your forecast for the maximum trimonthly ONI? 2.1 +/- .1c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 1997, 1982 and 1972 (super El Ninos) were dry in September in the east. The atmosphere and the Nino are already strongly coupled. The real effects don't normally exert themselves until mid to late October and especially November when the jet matures and wavelengths change 1972 wasn't a super. I'm not sure there is a solitary soul going cold and snowy throughout the first half of winter. Pretty sure his post was concerning the warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 1972 wasn't a super. Pretty sure his post was concerning the warm pool. 1972 was the third strongest El Nino on record. Not sure what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 1972 was the third strongest El Nino on record. Not sure what you're talking about. It didn't meet the criteria for Super Nino though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 It didn't meet the criteria for Super Nino though. It had a maximum trimonthly value of 2.0c, so I would consider it super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 It had a maximum trimonthly value of 2.0c, so I would consider it super. I thought you had to maintain it for 3 trimonthly periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 That isn't correct as per the numbers I see. The JJA SOI average was lower in 1982, 1997, and essentially identical to 1965 (which, probably not coincidentally, is close to my expected peak trimonthly value).According to this JJA had the lowest equatorial SOI since 1950. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/643247359506427904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 I thought you had to maintain it for 3 trimonthly periods Super El Nino is a made-up category; ENSO events are officially classified as strong, moderate, and weak. Therefore, "super" can really mean what you want it to mean although a common definition is a peak trimonthly exceeding 2.0C. In any case, the strongest Ninos on record are 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73, in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Super El Nino is a made-up category; ENSO events are officially classified as strong, moderate, and weak. Therefore, "super" can really mean what you want it to mean although a common definition is a peak trimonthly exceeding 2.0C. In any case, the strongest Ninos on record are 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73, in that order. Ah, okay. It's such a commonly used term, I'm surprised it's not an official category. Then again... it's so rare that we even have events that even warrant the use of the term in discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The first nine coldest el nino Decembers had a negative ao/nao...most of the rest had a positive ao/nao...It looks like we need a negative ao and nao to have any chance of having below normal temperatures or above average snowfall in December 2015... December temperature, snowfall, NDJ ONI, Dec. AO NAO 1958..........29.4...............3.8"..........0.6..........-1.687....-0.70 1976..........29.9...............5.1"..........0.7..........-2.074....-1.60 1963..........31.2.............11.3"..........1.0..........-1.178....-1.92 1969..........33.4...............6.8"..........0.6..........-1.856....-0.28 1968..........34.3...............7.0"..........0.9..........-0.783....-1.40 1977..........35.7...............0.4"..........0.7..........-0.240....-1.00 2009..........35.9.............12.4"..........1.3..........-3.413....-1.93 2002..........36.0.............11.0"..........1.1..........-1.592....-0.94 1997..........38.3................T.............2.3..........-0.071....-0.96 1951..........38.4...............3.3"..........0.6...........1.987.....1.32 2004..........38.4...............3.0"..........0.7...........1.230.....1.21 1972..........38.5................T.............1.9...........1.238.....0.19 1986..........39.0...............0.6"..........1.1...........0.060.....0.99 1987..........39.5...............2.6"..........1.1..........-0.534.....0.32 1991..........39.6...............0.7"..........1.4...........1.613.....0.46 1957..........40.2...............8.7"..........1.6...........0.828.....0.12 1965..........40.5................T.............1.5...........0.163.....1.37 2014..........40.5...............1.0"..........0.6...........0.413.....1.86 1979..........41.1...............3.5"..........0.6...........1.295.....1.001953..........41.3................T.............0.7...........0.575....-0.47 1994..........42.2................T.............1.0...........0.894.....2.02 1982..........42.8...............3.0"..........2.1...........0.967.....1.78 2006..........43.6................T.............1.0...........2.282.....1.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 The BOM just updated, Nino continuing to strengthen, possibly exceeding the 97-98 trimonthly peak...http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Current 90-day SOI Average: -18.396 That's the lowest figure since May 16, 1998, when the 90-day average was -18.458. It is also the 128th lowest 90-day average on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The BOM just updated, Nino continuing to strengthen, possibly exceeding the 97-98 trimonthly peak...http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Very nice discussion by the BOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 I wonder if the Indian Ocean being at as warm as it is will have any influence on our upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 According to Coastalwx Euro-sip looks similar to last month and not too far from the ECMWF seasonal with one difference. It is a bit further east with the trough near AK and it more into the GOAK. The verbatim solution at H5 is not a torch verbatim, but one can surmise that it introduces a warmer risk. It still advertises higher heights in Canada like the seasonal. Temps verbatim on the EC were 1.0-2.0C An here. Up to 0.5C in the MA. It is a bit warmer than the seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 According to Coastalwx Euro-sip looks similar to last month and not too far from the ECMWF seasonal with one difference. It is a bit further east with the trough near AK and it more into the GOAK. The verbatim solution at H5 is not a torch verbatim, but one can surmise that it introduces a warmer risk. It still advertises higher heights in Canada like the seasonal. Temps verbatim on the EC were 1.0-2.0C An here. Up to 0.5C in the MA. It is a bit warmer than the seasonal. Yikes. We might be seeing some last minute changes before the gears are in motion in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Yikes. We might be seeing some last minute changes before the gears are in motion in October. The Euro seasonal is colder . From ORH Not surprising since the Euro SIPS actually incorporates the CFS into it...and the CFS has been a furnace for the better part of 2-3 months now. So it will skew the overall ensemble a bit warmer when you add it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The Euro seasonal is colder . From ORH Not surprising since the Euro SIPS actually incorporates the CFS into it...and the CFS has been a furnace for the better part of 2-3 months now. So it will skew the overall ensemble a bit warmer when you add it in. I didn't know that. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Surprised we've not seen a wetter pattern start to develop (nationally). Maybe this is going to be one of those dry nino's like 72-73? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Surprised we've not seen a wetter pattern start to develop (nationally). Maybe this is going to be one of those dry nino's like 72-73? It's been pointed out that several Ninos had dry Septembers and we really wouldn't see the effects until later into fall and winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 October may be an early test of which models are on the right track for the winter forecast. While it's not always the case, the October Aleutian Low position can indicate where the it will set up during the winter. October 82 and 97 featured the Aleutian Low near the West Coast where it remained throughout the winter. October 57, 86, 02, and 09 had the Aleutian Low more suppressed south of the Aleutians with ridging over Alaska. Those winters featured above normal snowfall around the region since the Aleutian low hung back further west allowing more cold and snow. W.png C.png The Euro weeklies are maintaining a +EPO/-PNA pattern through week 4. If correct that would be a very bad sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The Euro weeklies are maintaining a +EPO/-PNA pattern through week 4. If correct that would be a very bad sign It's too soon to tell. Last year, there was a break in the EPO- from 9/17 through 11/4, during which 73% of the days had EPO+ conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 It's too soon to tell. Last year, there was a break in the EPO- from 9/17 through 11/4, during which 73% of the days had EPO+ conditions.My concern would be this, last year we didn't have a super El Niño which strongly favors +EPO and a GOA vortex. If the warm anomalies in the NE Pacific and GOA get upwelled and eroded away from the -PNA/+EPO over the next 4 + weeks and beyond, which is when Niño effects on the pattern are really "felt", going into October, what are the chances of a -EPO suddenly appearing at that point given strong Nino forcing and no more warm North Pacific and GOA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 My concern would be this, last year we didn't have a super El Niño which strongly favors +EPO and a GOA vortex. If the warm anomalies in the NE Pacific and GOA get upwelled and eroded away from the -PNA/+EPO over the next 4 + weeks and beyond, which is when Niño effects on the pattern are really "felt", going into October, what are the chances of a -EPO suddenly appearing at that point given strong Nino forcing and no more warm North Pacific and GOA? The forcing goes off out near the dateline and not east of 120 like in 97/98 . We just can`t seem to erase these plus 4c and 5c in time . In 97 there was already a large cold pool showing up , I thnk Chris already showed how the water has actually warmed SW of the Aleutians over the last 30 days . We really do have to see what this looks like come mid Nov , but as the jet tightens the guidance retrogrades the ridge west along with the neg in the EPO region . The JAMSTEC will be out this week and maybe it sheds some light on this as it was very good over the past 2 winters . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 It will be interesting to see how it goes. Some of the weaker events like 14-15 and 77-78 switch locations of the Aleutian Low from October to winter. But it seems like the moderate to strong events can carry over from October into winter. The 72-73 event was another where the October Aleutian Low position over the US West Coast repeated into the winter. That was a unique October Aleutian low split with the stronger center Over California. I agree. At least for me, it's too soon to embrace either solution. During October and November, we'll have to see how the SSTAs, among other factors are evolving, to try to determine the predominant position of the Aleutian Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The Euro weeklies are maintaining a +EPO/-PNA pattern through week 4. If correct that would be a very bad sign very bad sign for what ? snow ? nobody wants snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 very bad sign for what ? snow ? nobody wants snow here. If such a pattern were to predominate during the winter, the winter would be warmer than normal. Montreal could still get by with some decent snowfall, though snowfall might run below normal and there would be an increased risk of ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Add the UKMET to the Euro seasonal , NMME , NASA , SST analog , JAMSTEC @500 D-F. remember J- M look even better on all but the CFS . Notice how the neg is pulled west near the Aleutians along with the highest heights to the WEST of Hudson bay . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.