Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Isotherm]

Nothing will last forever. Chris and I speak about the 80s thru early 90s period all the time , I've seen stretches of duds .

Will sck when we flip . The bigger point however is we are not locking this pattern in through March .

The entire evolution of this pattern retrogrades west once past N

And that will pull the trough west in the GOA and the ridge west in Canada .

 

 

Paul, if people are concerned about the Pacific pattern right now, they should wait a year. I'd take my chances with a +PDO / El Nino of any intensity over a -PDO / La Nina insofar as snowfall opportunities. Of course, numerous poor winters have occurred in the former regime, but particularly for NYC southward, a +PDO/El Nino is more favorable. I think it's very likely that we lose the conducive Pacific after this winter.

[PB GFI]

Paul, if people are concerned about the Pacific pattern right now, they should wait a year. I'd take my chances with a +PDO / El Nino of any intensity over a -PDO / La Nina insofar as snowfall opportunities. Of course, numerous poor winters have occurred in the former regime, but particularly for NYC southward, a +PDO/El Nino is more favorable. I think it's very likely that we lose the conducive Pacific after this winter.

Tom , I agree. I see the La Nina being modeled and one of these years ( maybe next year ) when you cool the Pacific and the EPO region you will stick a nice winter time trough in western Canada and you will fire up the SE ridge .

[ClicheVortex2014]

Paul, it was like someone flipped a switch right around the time of the 12/30/00 snowstorm.

We remember the 86-00 15 winter interval when there were 10 years with below 20 inches of

snowfall in NYC. The 11 out of 15 normal to above normal snowfall years from 00-01 on

have broken all variety of snowfall records here.

 

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That's very interesting.... I had no idea. Even weirder is the fact that 1986-2000 was the end of the +PDO regime. Talk about irony.

[JBG]

The Euro says ready, set, go for Super El Niño 2015-2016 starting real soon if it's correct...

One question for all the Niño believers; why if we're headed for or perhaps in a super Niño does sensible weather not take on Niño patterns?

 

To be sure we had similar La Niño or El Niña behavior in the fall of 2009. But his past July-September (so far) weather doesn't have the El Niño feel of coolness and rain,

[JBG]

I don't know much about the intricacies of meteorology that dictate ENSO fluctuations...you know more than I do.

 

I just know east-based sucks lol

1968-9 was east-based. It wasn't terrible by any means. Just average. Two NYC storms to speak of and plenty of cold.

[snowman19]

One question for all the Niño believers; why if we're headed for or perhaps in a super Niño does sensible weather not take on Niño patterns?

To be sure we had similar La Niño or El Niña behavior in the fall of 2009. But his past July-September (so far) weather doesn't have the El Niño feel of coolness and rain,

The real effects from El Niño don't come until mid to late October and especially November when wavelengths change and the jet matures. The atmosphere is responding to El Niño (coupled) in a huge way already

[snowman19]

Paul, if people are concerned about the Pacific pattern right now, they should wait a year. I'd take my chances with a +PDO / El Nino of any intensity over a -PDO / La Nina insofar as snowfall opportunities. Of course, numerous poor winters have occurred in the former regime, but particularly for NYC southward, a +PDO/El Nino is more favorable. I think it's very likely that we lose the conducive Pacific after this winter.

If you think about it, the period from 1979-2000 featured a very long run of mild to warm winters with below to really below average snow. There were a few good ones in that 21 year stretch but they were exceptions rather than rules. By and large that time period sucked.

[uncle W]

The real effect from El Niño don't come until mid to late October and especially November when wavelengths change and the jet matures. The atmosphere is responding to El Niño (coupled) in a huge way already

some of the wettest Novembers in NYC were el nino years...1972 and 1977 had over a foot of rain for November...the top ten includes 1963 with over 8 inches of rain...2006 is in the top ten...

[JBG]

The real effects from El Niño don't come until mid to late October and especially November when wavelengths change and the jet matures. The atmosphere is responding to El Niño (coupled) in a huge way already

I seem to remember that in 1972 we had El Niño signature storms in early August, weekend after Labor Day and October. During the summers of 1969 and 1992 we seemed to be locked in an El Niño type pattern for much of the summer. In 1997 we had a large El Niño signature storm on or about July 29. In 2002 the scorching summer came to an abrupt halt with a coastal cold-core storm the last weekend of August.

 

I wonder why this happens in most but not all of the El Niño summers.

[JBG]

If you think about it, the period from 1979-2000 featured a very long run of mild to warm winters with below to really below average snow. There were a few good ones in that 21 year stretch but they were exceptions rather than rules. By and large that time period sucked.

Shortening that sucky period to the period 1983-1992 I would tend to agree. I agree with your likely thinking that Megalopolis was a one-off event. But February 1979 featured big cold and a one-off PD I storm, 1980-1 had some big cold and a few nice storms, and 1981-2 had plenty of big cold and a few blockbusters. For my way of thinking the pattern began to see-saw rather than be unremittingly depressing around March 1992. We had the "Storm of the Century" a year later. There was nothing sucky about 1993-4 or 1995-6. Even 1994-5 had a Kocin storm. And the winters at both end of 2000 were pretty good.

 

I would say dystopia had a shorter life.

[uncle W]

for temperatures the change came in January 1990 and snowfall since 1993... snowfalls are heavier and more often...from 1970-71 to 1991-92 NYC average seasonal snowfall was around 20"...since 1992-93 it's over 30"...

[JBG]

for temperatures the change came in January 1990 and snowfall since 1993... snowfalls are heavier and more often...from 1970-71 to 1991-92 NYC average seasonal snowfall was around 20"...since 1992-93 it's over 30"...

Interesting. I don't remember there being much cold about the period from January 1990 to the beginning of February 1993.

[Absolute Humidity]

Late 80's and early 1990's sucked dog balls plain and simple. Mid 80's though in central and coastal NJ had some AB seasonal's and a few nice KU type snowfalls.

[Isotherm]

If you think about it, the period from 1979-2000 featured a very long run of mild to warm winters with below to really below average snow. There were a few good ones in that 21 year stretch but they were exceptions rather than rules. By and large that time period sucked.

 

 

The early-mid 1980s were actually quite cold, and for central NJ southward, on the snowier side as well. The 6 year 1987-1993 period was likely one of the worst stretches for both lack of cold and snow.

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

Late 80's and early 1990's sucked dog balls plain and simple. Mid 80's though in central and coastal NJ had some AB seasonal's and a few nice KU type snowfalls.

 

 

It's a shame the Freehold COOP wasn't recording in the 80s, as I think we probably did better than New Brunswick. Even still, New Brunswick recorded 34.6" in the super Nino 1982-83 winter, 30.9" in 81-82, 37.7" in 83-84, and of course 86-87, 47.3" [which I'm told locally was a 55-60" winter in Monmouth with a couple tight gradient storms].

[uncle W]

It's a shame the Freehold COOP wasn't recording in the 80s, as I think we probably did better than New Brunswick. Even still, New Brunswick recorded 34.6" in the super Nino 1982-83 winter, 30.9" in 81-82, 37.7" in 83-84, and of course 86-87, 47.3" [which I'm told locally was a 55-60" winter in Monmouth with a couple tight gradient storms].

I remember seeing the radar for the 1987 storms and the one around Jan. 25th had heavy snow about 20 miles south of Brooklyn...The same for the late February storm...I think Freehold recorded in the 1970's because in 1974 they got over 10" from a storm in late February but Brooklyn and the city picked up less than 3"...

[Isotherm]

I remember seeing the radar for the 1987 storms and the one around Jan. 25th had heavy snow about 20 miles south of Brooklyn...The same for the late February storm...I think Freehold recorded in the 1970's because in 1974 they got over 10" from a storm in late February but Brooklyn and the city picked up less than 3"...

 

 

Yeah, here's the map from Kocin / Uccellini book for the late Feb storm. Looks like it was a 10-20" event to the south of Middlesex/Staten Island/Brooklyn.

 

[uncle W]

i was thinking about these two...

[bluewave]

SST's are up a bit in Nino 3 and 3.4.....down a little in Nino 1+2....holding steady in Nino 4

 

Slightly above 1997 in Nino 3.4...below in 1+2 and 3....above in Nino 4

 

02SEP2015    2.2  2.4  2.1  1.0

09SEP2015    2.0  2.6  2.3  1.0

10SEP1997    4.2  2.9  2.2  0.6

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[donsutherland1]

SST's are up a bit in Nino 3 and 3.4.....down a little in Nino 1+2....holding steady in Nino 4

 

Slightly above 1997 in Nino 3.4...below in 1+2 and 3....above in Nino 4

 

02SEP2015    2.2  2.4  2.1  1.0

09SEP2015    2.0  2.6  2.3  1.0

10SEP1997    4.2  2.9  2.2  0.6

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

There's a nice little "horse race" between 1997-98 and 2015-16 taking place. 2015 has taken the lead again in Region 3.4 and closed the gap in Region 3. The 90-day SOI average is now down to -18.143. The last time the 90-day average was at least as low was May 23, 1998 (-18.245).

 

So far, a very impressive basin-wide El Niño remains on course.

[snowman19]

There's a nice little "horse race" between 1997-98 and 2015-16 taking place. 2015 has taken the lead again in Region 3.4 and closed the gap in Region 3. The 90-day SOI average is now down to -18.143. The last time the 90-day average was at least as low was May 23, 1998 (-18.245).

So far, a very impressive basin-wide El Niño remains on course.

Don the equatorial SOI average for June to August was the lowest on record since 1950. Impressive to say the least

[snowman19]

Yes, it's a very impressive event. The strong Aleutian Low is displaced a bit further east over the PAC NW

than it was back in September 1997. It will be very interesting to see how the strength and evolution

of the Aleutian Low position works out for the rest of the fall and winter.

9/15...so far

15.gif

9/97

1997.gif

That is not what you want to see. That will eat away the warm waters in the GOA and NE Pacific very quickly if this setup persists.

[ClicheVortex2014]

That is not what you want to see. That will eat away the warm waters in the GOA and NE Pacific very quickly if this setup persists.

CFS is consistently spitting out a ridiculous pattern in the weekly and monthly versions. Curious what Euro weeklies are showing.

 

[IsentropicLift]

When are we going to see evidence that this strong El Nino exists in the overall N American pattern? I thought strong Nino's typically resulted in wet Septembers in the East. Aside from this past weekend, things couldn't be drier.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

When are we going to see evidence that this strong El Nino exists in the overall N American pattern? I thought strong Nino's typically resulted in wet Septembers in the East. Aside from this past weekend, things couldn't be drier.  

I think we're seeing it affect our pattern now. We've seen a strong, persistent trough in NW North America... and in 1997-98, a trough of similar intensity started in September. Sample size is low, so it's hard to say the Nino is absolutely responsible at this point. I think it's more probable than not that it is... but that's my 2 cents.

[donsutherland1]

When are we going to see evidence that this strong El Nino exists in the overall N American pattern? I thought strong Nino's typically resulted in wet Septembers in the East. Aside from this past weekend, things couldn't be drier.  

There's a lot of variability. El Niño years that were dry in the East in September included 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2009.

[snowman19]

When are we going to see evidence that this strong El Nino exists in the overall N American pattern? I thought strong Nino's typically resulted in wet Septembers in the East. Aside from this past weekend, things couldn't be drier.

1997, 1982 and 1972 (super El Ninos) were dry in September in the east. The atmosphere and the Nino are already strongly coupled. The real effects don't normally exert themselves until mid to late October and especially November when the jet matures and wavelengths change

[SnoSki14]

Maybe it's a good thing that things aren't looking exactly like 97/98 right now in terms of the pattern.

Nice basin wide Nino right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1997, 1982 and 1972 (super El Ninos) were dry in September in the east. The atmosphere and the Nino are already strongly coupled. The real effects don't normally exert themselves until mid to late October and especially November when the jet matures and wavelengths change

Agree with you for once.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is not what you want to see. That will eat away the warm waters in the GOA and NE Pacific very quickly if this setup persists.

I'm not sure there is a solitary soul going cold and snowy throughout the first half of winter.