Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 like this? Probably more like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I hate those damn maps.....it takes 10 minutes to discern that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 nyc has never had a cold and snowy winter with a nino this strong so I take the assumption that you're predicting a warm winter then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 not every el nino is wet around here during the winter...1991-92 is example and there was below average snowfall...even 1982-83 had below the normal el nino winter precipitation... 1994-95 and 2006-07 were dry with little snow...two cold winters 1963-64 and 1968-69 had near to above average snowfall with big snows...65-66 and 87-88 had below average snowfall also...if it's dry it better be cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 nyc has never had a cold and snowy winter with a nino this strong What's your forecast for the maximum trimonthly ONI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Some models are hinting at some MJO activity closer to the end of the month. I recall MJO can impact ENSO, as it did in early March (strongest wave on record) and early July(?) Certainly something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 not every el nino is wet around here during the winter...1991-92 is example and there was below average snowfall...even 1982-83 had below the normal el nino winter precipitation... 1994-95 and 2006-07 were dry with little snow...two cold winters 1963-64 and 1968-69 had near to above average snowfall with big snows...65-66 and 87-88 had below average snowfall also...if it's dry it better be cold... I wouldn't worry too much about 1991-92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 This is huge, if there was any doubt as to how strong this Nino really is, the sea level in the eastern Pacific has already risen 25cm and it dropped 25cm in the western Pacific. https://twitter.com/windjunky/status/641930013084745728 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 This is huge, if there was any doubt as to how strong this Nino really is, the sea level in the eastern Pacific has already risen 25cm and it dropped 25cm in the western Pacific. https://twitter.com/windjunky/status/641930013084745728 how is this huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 how is this hugeDo you understand what it takes to make sea levels rise? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Do you understand what it takes to make sea levels rise? Lol no that's why I'm asking you and what would the effect be from it doing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 no that's why I'm asking you and what would the effect be from it doing thisIt's an effect from the very powerful Nino we have. This is one of the indicators you look for to see how strong the event is. The very strong/super events alter sea levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It's an effect from the very powerful Nino we have. This is one of the indicators you look for to see how strong the event is. The very strong/super events alter sea levels ok thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The JMA has a fairly classic strong El Nino progression with a cooler October followed by a warm November in the Northeast. Retrogession of the mid level ridge into the West for October with an Aleutian low, then a shift eastward in the mean features for November. December initiates the retrogression process once again, at least as per the JMA. October: November: December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 The Euro is on board for a Pineapple Express into southern California week 4. STJ slamming into SOCAL with a direct connection from the eastern equatorial pacific. Classic strong El Niño look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The Euro is on board for a Pineapple Express into southern California week 4. STJ slamming into SOCAL with a direct connection from the eastern equatorial pacific. Classic strong El Niño look That'd be excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The Euro builds a massive vortex into Alaska and screaming Pacific Jet into the West by Day 10. If that's true the PDO's taking a beating. And with the Nino the way it is, it's only a matter of time before the charged STJ slams the Southwest. It would also likely restart the cool/wet pattern here in Texas which disappeared after mid-June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 The Euro builds a massive vortex into Alaska and screaming Pacific Jet into the West by Day 10. If that's true the PDO's taking a beating. And with the Nino the way it is, it's only a matter of time before the charged STJ slams the Southwest. It would also likely restart the cool/wet pattern here in Texas which disappeared after mid-June. The Euro says ready, set, go for Super El Niño 2015-2016 starting real soon if it's correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 As anticipated, recent CFS V2 runs have been trending quite a bit weaker with the maximum intensity of this El Nino event, now depicting a peak region 3.4 value around 2.0c. I still feel confident in my original call for a trimonthly ONI of 1.7 - 1.95c in region 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The amount of continuing westward shift of the warmest SST's will be the key to the winter forecast. It's what models like the Euro, SST CA, and others have been indicating by showing primary forcing shifting to Nino 4 during the winter. https://twitter.com/KellyHereid/status/641982626342019072 Screen shot 2015-09-11 at 9.00.31 AM.png Screen shot 2015-09-11 at 9.00.36 AM.png Before some read Modoki and jump on and start screaming , WSI does not mean SST style Modoki , they mean in terms of similar forcing in Modoki years . Yes the 1.2 and 4 region are not " below " normal , actually they are very much the opposite . However the greatest warm departures are west 120 and the guidance keeps expanding this west as we get towards DEC . So as long as you are not forcing out of the 1.2 region and instead back towards the dateline along with the guidance allowing a deep NEG S of the Aleutians ,once past DEC IMO , you could pull ridge back and that will open the door for HP to slip through the lakes towards the base of the trough in the means in the SE. This is what many here have been opining on since July, at least the guidance has come to our way of thinking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 This is exactly why myself, and many others, are touting a reasonably snowy and cold winter. The EURO did what we thought it would.....as for the AO/NAO...that was expected, too. I wouldn't expect much help from the NAO for the foreseeable future. I'm sure some winters will average negative but I think much like the 80s into the early 90s we will be predominantly positive during winter for the next 10 plus years if you believe the Atlantic phase change, and I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 As anticipated, recent CFS V2 runs have been trending quite a bit weaker with the maximum intensity of this El Nino event, now depicting a peak region 3.4 value around 2.0c. I still feel confident in my original call for a trimonthly ONI of 1.7 - 1.95c in region 3.4. Yea, we've been in agreement on that. Still feel great about my 1.8 from July. Not a record breaker, but an impressive warm ENSO, nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The Euro says ready, set, go for Super El Niño 2015-2016 starting real soon if it's correct... Have you invested your life savings in el nino stock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The amount of continuing westward shift of the warmest SST's will be the key to the winter forecast. It's what models like the Euro, SST CA, and others have been indicating by showing primary forcing shifting to Nino 4 during the winter. https://twitter.com/KellyHereid/status/641982626342019072 Screen shot 2015-09-11 at 9.00.31 AM.png Screen shot 2015-09-11 at 9.00.36 AM.png I'm going out on a limb and guessing that snowman, nor clichevortex will quote this bad boy.... god love 'em both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I wouldn't expect much help from the NAO for the foreseeable future. I'm sure some winters will average negative but I think much like the 80s into the early 90s we will be predominantly positive during winter for the next 10 plus years if you believe the Atlantic phase change, and I do. I disagree. Which phase change are you referring to, the AMO? The correlation between it and the NAO is very weak overall. The NAO decadal cycle has generally been on a downward slope over the past several years. Beyond that, variations in solar forcing modulate the behavior of the NAO via changes in ozone chemistry in the stratosphere, as numerous studies in the scientific literature have shown. The declining solar constant overall should increase the propensity for high latitude blocking in the NATL; not every year, but I expect an increased frequency of anomalous and stagnant blocking patterns over the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I disagree. Which phase change are you referring to, the AMO? The correlation between it and the NAO is very weak overall. The NAO decadal cycle has generally been on a downward slope over the past several years. Beyond that, variations in solar forcing modulate the behavior of the NAO via changes in ozone chemistry in the stratosphere, as numerous studies in the scientific literature have shown. The declining solar constant overall should increase the propensity for high latitude blocking in the NATL; not every year, but I expect an increased frequency of anomalous and stagnant blocking patterns over the next decade. I was going to say something to the effect of "don't these cycles last closer to 15-20 years"....but didn't feel weel enough versed on the issue to counter. I thought we had several years left, too.....but god only knows when the hammer drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I'm going out on a limb and guessing that snowman, nor clichevortex will quote this bad boy.... god love 'em both. I've already seen that... was posted on Accuweather's forum a while ago. I don't have anything to say to that (neither rebuttal nor support) because it's way over my head. I'll believe the big westward shift when I see it. It's been teasing us too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I've already seen that... was posted on Accuweather's forum a while ago. I don't have anything to say to that (neither rebuttal nor support) because it's way over my head. I'll believe the big westward shift when I see it. It's been teasing us too long. I don't know much about the intricacies of meteorology that dictate ENSO fluctuations...you know more than I do. I just know east-based sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Modoki? Yeah...OK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I wouldn't expect much help from the NAO for the foreseeable future. I'm sure some winters will average negative but I think much like the 80s into the early 90s we will be predominantly positive during winter for the next 10 plus years if you believe the Atlantic phase change, and I do. since the 1980's the nao has averaged below 1.00 for Jan once since 1987 and that was in 2010...Since 1986 the nao has averaged below -1.00 once and that was in 2010 also...the 1960's had many Jan/Feb months with a -1.00 or below nao number...It looks like we have been in a positive cycle of the winter nao since the 1970's... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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