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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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According to coastalwx in the NE forum.

New Euro seasonal is in. Not much change really. Continues with 500mb low anomalies near and south of the Aleutians with higher height anomalies once again in NW Canada. This continues into Canada with a weird appendage into eastern Canada as continued from last month, possibly due to low heights near Iceland helping to keep that part of Canada a bit warmer. Low heights also are shown in the srn US with active STJ it appears. Could be split flow city. QPF anomalies look wet up and down the East Coast. Bottom line is that I do like the anomalies near the Aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada. For those with a srfc temp fetish. Anomalies verbatim from DJFM looked about 0.5 to 1C AN. Temps were near normal over the Mid Atlantic.

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According to coastalwx in the NE forum.

New Euro seasonal is in. Not much change really. Continues with 500mb low anomalies near and south of the Aleutians with higher height anomalies once again in NW Canada. This continues into Canada with a weird appendage into eastern Canada as continued from last month, possibly due to low heights near Iceland helping to keep that part of Canada a bit warmer. Low heights also are shown in the srn US with active STJ it appears. Could be split flow city. QPF anomalies look wet up and down the East Coast. Bottom line is that I do like the anomalies near the Aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada. For those with a srfc temp fetish. Anomalies verbatim from DJFM looked about 0.5 to 1C AN. Temps were near normal over the Mid Atlantic.

 

 

Could not look better at 500. 

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According to coastalwx in the NE forum.

New Euro seasonal is in. Not much change really. Continues with 500mb low anomalies near and south of the Aleutians with higher height anomalies once again in NW Canada. This continues into Canada with a weird appendage into eastern Canada as continued from last month, possibly due to low heights near Iceland helping to keep that part of Canada a bit warmer. Low heights also are shown in the srn US with active STJ it appears. Could be split flow city. QPF anomalies look wet up and down the East Coast. Bottom line is that I do like the anomalies near the Aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada. For those with a srfc temp fetish. Anomalies verbatim from DJFM looked about 0.5 to 1C AN. Temps were near normal over the Mid Atlantic.

I just took a look, literally the only thing stopping an epic DJF blowtorch is that it has a -EPO, if it wasn't for that, it would have been torch city. The NAO and AO look raging positive
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I just took a look, literally the only thing stopping an epic DJF blowtorch is that it has a -EPO, if it wasn't for that, it would have been torch city. The NAO and AO look raging positive

 

 

You just took a look ? And that`s what you took from that 500 mb map ? 

Dude , if one wanted snow , you could not draw a 500 mb map up any better .

 

Please tell me what you see S of the Aleutians ?  Please tell me where the greatest POS anomalies are in Canada ? 

 

Not only does this map not scream, nor does it whisper TORCH , it screams look out. 

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You just took a look ? And that`s what you took from that 500 mb map ? LOL

Dude , if one wanted snow , you could not draw a 500 mb map up any better .

Please tell me what you see S of the Aleutians ? Please tell me where the greatest POS anomalies are in Canada ?

Not only does this map not scream, nor does it whisper TORCH , it screams look out.

It's entirely -EPO driven, I didn't say it wasn't a good look at all, but it has +AO/NAO. The EPO saves it into a good look
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I can`t post the S Low pressure maps . But there is LP in NE Canada . The highest heights are on the west shores of HB . There`s a - AO.

 

If you drag that POS west like that , you will drain cold air from N to S . 

 

I have not opined on the NAO , as there I have not been sure since day 1 and I will leave that to others .

But I love the look of how WET this map is along with its ridge position . 

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I can`t post the S Low pressure maps . But there is LP in NE Canada . The highest heights are on the west shores of HB . There`s a - AO.

If you drag that POS west like that , you will drain cold air from N to S .

I have not opined on the NAO , as there I have not been sure since day 1 and I will leave that to others .

But I love the look of how WET this map is along with its ridge position .

I am not disagreeing with you I don't know why you thought I was all I was saying was that the EPO saves the day again if that run is correct
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I am not disagreeing with you I don't know why you thought I was all I was saying was that the EPO saves the day again if that run is correct

I just thought the map looked good all around . Yes you are correct , there is a Deep Neg S of the Aleutians , it`s just when I see the ridge pulled back in Canada with a trough in the SE and nothing but STJ up the EC , I guess i just liked the totality more .

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I just thought the map looked good all around . Yes you are correct , there is a Deep Neg S of the Aleutians , it`s just when I see the ridge pulled back in Canada with a trough in the SE and nothing but STJ up the EC , I guess i just liked the totality more .

This is exactly why myself, and many others, are touting a reasonably snowy and cold winter.

 

The EURO did what we thought it would.....as for the AO/NAO...that was expected, too.

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It may be safe to say that DJF maximums will end up lower than average, while DJF minumums end up higher than average, giving us near average overall winter temperatures region-wide.  I believe something like this happened in 2009-10.

a few el nino winters were like that...1964, 1969, 1978 and 2010...

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JMA DJF winter forecast similar to the CA SST and Euro in keeping the strongest forcing

over the CP Nino 4 region. The Aleutian Low is far enough west to allow ridging to extend

back to Eastern Alaska. Last winter the JMA beat the CFS in this regard when the CFS

had the Aleutian Low too far east into Western Canada cutting off the cold air source.

So all we have to do now is wait for the winter to see where the best forcing actually

occurs along with the exact Aleutian Low position.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

attachicon.gifY201509.D0300 06-17-41-477.png

 

attachicon.gifY201509.D0300_gl0.png

 

 

The mean 500mb heights in the NPAC look a bit more realistic and in accordance with historical precedent, as compared to the ECMWF seasonal. It would be surprising to see the mean low height anomaly as far SW as the ECMWF depicts, though it's possible. The JMA essentially indicates a classic strong El Nino regime in the Pacific - though basin-wide and with favorable orientation of forcing. Large, expansive Gulf of Alaskan low, which again, isn't necessarily a detriment, depending upon its placement and the Arctic/Atlantic pattern as well. What seems to be a common denominator of all modelling is the active sub-tropical jet, which is good news insofar as precipitation for the East Coast. Will need to see how we progress over the next 1-2 months.

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The EURO seasonal D- F 500 S of the Aleutians looks very  similar to the D-F JMA

The J-M Euro is only a little further SW like the SST analog because its pulling the vortex slightly SW during the shorter wave length periods .

 

We don`t have the JMA - J-M to compare , but the D- F are pretty close . A few things all the guidance agree on ( all but the CFS in Canada ) is the lower heights near  the Aleutians  , the highest heights WEST of Hudson Bay, wet on the EC with that NEG in the means in the SE. 

 

 

I will stick this on the side of the guidance that agrees to what many here have opined about . 

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This exact profile can not be / nor should it expected to be found in any analog . 

 

No 2 NINO s are alike , this year the set up is a little different than any other year , so too may the outcome . 

 

A strong STJ

NEG in the SE 

NO SE RIDGE at all .

Blocking up over HB

Deep NEG south of the Aleutians .
 

If the guidance is right that "should" yield AB Snowfall . 

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This exact profile can not be / nor should it expected to be found in any analog . 

 

No 2 NINO s are alike , this year the set up is a little different than any other year , so too may the outcome . 

 

A strong STJ

NEG in the SE 

NO SE RIDGE at all .

Blocking up over HB

Deep NEG south of the Aleutians .

 

If the guidance is right that will yield AB Snowfall . 

Careful of absolutes....snowfall is highly variable.

 

It is a favorable pattern, though.

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Careful of absolutes....snowfall is highly variable.

 

It is a favorable pattern, though.

 

I changed to " should " , so we almost agree 

I will stay away from temps , Dec could start off so warm that N would not shock me .

 

That 500 mb map is wet on the EC . I like AN snow - I don`t think i`m reaching. 

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I changed to " should " , so we almost agree 

I will stay away from temps , Dec could start off so warm that N would not shock me .

 

That 500 mb map is wet on the EC . I like AN snow - I don`t think i`m reaching. 

Funny, but I am more comfortable forecasting seasonal snowfall, than I am temps.

Most of the pros are the opposite, so it probably helps that I have nothing riding on it.

 

Temps I just give a broad brush, general idea.

The H5 set up is the main thing, anyway....folks can glean from that as they wish.

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