Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[40/70 Benchmark]

He seems obsessed with 97-98 as an analog which means little snow even for his area.

I certainly think discussion of that el nino is warranted.....it was a strong, non modoki event, as this one is.

 

People need to recognize the distinction between general comparison and talk of strong seasonal analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The +PDO has just started weakening, the August number dropped: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/ersst.v4.pdo.datThis animation really shows the sst change going on: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

See, this is what I was referring to.

You have posted an entirely valid fact, but please note how no one has bludgenoned you with posts reaffirming the notion that a mean +PDO is likely this year.

 

Nowhere did you state that you expected a negative PDO winter, thus no one has thrust words into your mouth.

 

I don't whether you have taken the GRE of plan to, but this is how low percentiles are born on the verbal section.

[snowman19]

Agreed, the facts are always helpful.

I absolutely did state fact, there are now +5.3C anomalies showing up in region 1+2 that is fact, reality and not opinion or innuendo. Did you look at the link to the map I posted? Are we only allowed to discuss region 1+2 cooling and not when it is clearly undergoing dramatic warming that the models didn't predict? You are a weather fan right?

[snowman19]

He seems obsessed with 97-98 as an analog which means little snow even for his area.

97-98 is a Nino analog, sorry, but that's reality. Even Joe Bastardi used it

[IrishRob17]

I absolutely did state fact, there are now +5.3C anomalies showing up in region 1+2 that is fact, reality and not opinion or innuendo. Did you look at the link to the map I posted? Are we only allowed to discuss region 1+2 cooling and not when it is clearly undergoing dramatic warming that the models didn't predict? You are a weather fan right?

Dude, the only reason I'm even reading this post from you is because you quoted me, which is telling.

[snowman19]

I certainly think discussion of that el nino is warranted.....it was a strong, non modoki event, as this one is.

People need to recognize the distinction between general comparison and talk of strong seasonal analogs.

Nino analogs are important IMO and that's why I've been saying 97-98 is a definite Nino analog and the PDO has been close too

[SnoSki14]

There are clearly strong biases in play on this thread on both sides of the fence.

Dons analysis is always great because of the neutral stance and constant presentation of data for different scenarios.

[uncle W]

bias aside you can't rule out an analog like 1997-98...whether the sensible weather is the same is another question...

[thunderbolt]

97-98 is a Nino analog, sorry, but that's reality. Even Joe Bastardi used it

to be honest with you snowman I don't think there's an analog out there that represents this El Nino 97-98 was more of an East based which I believe this one is going to be more of a basin-wide

[Isotherm]

The primary purpose of analogs is misunderstood by many. No year will ever repeat a prior year, ENSO wise or sensible weather. I utilize analogs to identify potential ocean / atmospheric / solar commonalities between the current situation and past years. If there are some similarities in forcings, one can examine the evolution of those prior years for potential "clues" as to the possible progression of the present pattern. However, the probability of the current pattern progressing in a completely parallel fashion to a past year is zero. The non-linear, chaotic nature of the atmosphere will preclude identical results given the infinite possibilities. Often times, people hear an analog and automatically think, "cold snowy winter, blizzard in early February, 50"+ at NYC" - however, that is far from the purpose of an analog. Furthermore, an analog right now may not be an analog 2, 3 or 5 months from now due to the introduction of a new / unforeseen variable or change in pattern forcings. So the discussion of similar years is very preliminary and speculative at this point. We can have a similar ENSO forcing evolution to 57-58, yet still have a rainy / mild winter in the East, if the EPO is positive and the NAO/AO are predominately positive, for example (indices for which their modalities are unknown at this juncture).

 

The bottom line is that this year will create a new pathway, like every other year, and the extent to which it follows a previous year is unknown. There might not be any useful / acceptable analogs.

 

Finally, most of the discussion has been fairly objective in my opinion with sound, scientific support.

[thunderbolt]

The primary purpose of analogs is misunderstood by many. No year will ever repeat a prior year, ENSO wise or sensible weather. I utilize analogs to identify potential ocean / atmospheric / solar commonalities between the current situation and past years. If there are some similarities in forcings, one can examine the evolution of those prior years for potential "clues" as to the possible progression of the present pattern. However, the probability of the current pattern progressing in a completely parallel fashion to a past year is zero. The non-linear, chaotic nature of the atmosphere will preclude identical results given the infinite possibilities. Often times, people hear an analog and automatically think, "cold snowy winter, blizzard in early February, 50"+ at NYC" - however, that is far from the purpose of an analog. Furthermore, an analog right now may not be an analog 2, 3 or 5 months from now due to the introduction of a new / unforeseen variable or change in pattern forcings. So the discussion of similar years is very preliminary and speculative at this point. We can have a similar ENSO forcing evolution to 57-58, yet still have a rainy / mild winter in the East, if the EPO is positive and the NAO/AO are predominately positive, for example (indices for which their modalities are unknown at this juncture).

The bottom line is that this year will create a new pathway, like every other year, and the extent to which it follows a previous year is unknown. There might not be any useful / acceptable analogs.

Finally, most of the discussion has been fairly objective in my opinion with sound, scientific support.

very well said

[easternsnowman]

97-98 is a Nino analog, sorry, but that's reality. Even Joe Bastardi used it

Maybe for the strength not other factors.

[Yanksfan]

There are clearly strong biases in play on this thread on both sides of the fence.

Dons analysis is always great because of the neutral stance and constant presentation of data for different scenarios.

 

My perspective on this whole will there be a spectacular winter or dud season is no one really knows the final outcome. Not only are we still too early to look at present anomalies on the map, but most important there are really no true analogs that exist for a strong basin wide Nino event. Battle lines are now drawn in the sand between the snow weenies and warm misers. By the way I'm in the snow  camp. We just have to see how this plays out in the next 6-8 weeks.  Until then unfortunately, tempers are going to flare from time to time.

[Yanksfan]

The primary purpose of analogs is misunderstood by many. No year will ever repeat a prior year, ENSO wise or sensible weather. I utilize analogs to identify potential ocean / atmospheric / solar commonalities between the current situation and past years. If there are some similarities in forcings, one can examine the evolution of those prior years for potential "clues" as to the possible progression of the present pattern. However, the probability of the current pattern progressing in a completely parallel fashion to a past year is zero. The non-linear, chaotic nature of the atmosphere will preclude identical results given the infinite possibilities. Often times, people hear an analog and automatically think, "cold snowy winter, blizzard in early February, 50"+ at NYC" - however, that is far from the purpose of an analog. Furthermore, an analog right now may not be an analog 2, 3 or 5 months from now due to the introduction of a new / unforeseen variable or change in pattern forcings. So the discussion of similar years is very preliminary and speculative at this point. We can have a similar ENSO forcing evolution to 57-58, yet still have a rainy / mild winter in the East, if the EPO is positive and the NAO/AO are predominately positive, for example (indices for which their modalities are unknown at this juncture).

 

The bottom line is that this year will create a new pathway, like every other year, and the extent to which it follows a previous year is unknown. There might not be any useful / acceptable analogs.

 

Finally, most of the discussion has been fairly objective in my opinion with sound, scientific support.

Strongly agree.

[Morris]

The primary purpose of analogs is misunderstood by many. No year will ever repeat a prior year, ENSO wise or sensible weather. I utilize analogs to identify potential ocean / atmospheric / solar commonalities between the current situation and past years. If there are some similarities in forcings, one can examine the evolution of those prior years for potential "clues" as to the possible progression of the present pattern. However, the probability of the current pattern progressing in a completely parallel fashion to a past year is zero. The non-linear, chaotic nature of the atmosphere will preclude identical results given the infinite possibilities. Often times, people hear an analog and automatically think, "cold snowy winter, blizzard in early February, 50"+ at NYC" - however, that is far from the purpose of an analog. Furthermore, an analog right now may not be an analog 2, 3 or 5 months from now due to the introduction of a new / unforeseen variable or change in pattern forcings. So the discussion of similar years is very preliminary and speculative at this point. We can have a similar ENSO forcing evolution to 57-58, yet still have a rainy / mild winter in the East, if the EPO is positive and the NAO/AO are predominately positive, for example (indices for which their modalities are unknown at this juncture).

The bottom line is that this year will create a new pathway, like every other year, and the extent to which it follows a previous year is unknown. There might not be any useful / acceptable analogs.

Finally, most of the discussion has been fairly objective in my opinion with sound, scientific support.

Bingo!

I'm sick and tired of people bringing up El Nino in every stupid weather item and comment. We have no freaking clue what will be. And the current scorching summer might very well have nothing to do with El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nino analogs are important IMO and that's why I've been saying 97-98 is a definite Nino analog and the PDO has been close too

I didn't say they were not important, especially within the context of an ENSO thread.

 

But I think you are relying on them a bit too heavily.

 

JMHO....anyone is welcomed to disagree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nino analogs are important IMO and that's why I've been saying 97-98 is a definite Nino analog and the PDO has been close too

Do you think we are going to compile a a negative PDO in the mean this winter?

[snowman19]

Do you think we are going to compile a a negative PDO in the mean this winter?

So far, the PDO has been following 1997 pretty close, July had the highest PDO value since 1997, now it's begun to slowly drop in August. The PDO really began to drop off in October of 1997, when the jet matured, wavelengths changed and a huge vortex formed in the GOA in mid October that year and upwelled the warm pool into nothing. During the winter of 1998 is when the PDO went negative. Does that happen again this year? Who knows?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, well said, Isotherm.

I mentioned the word "commonality" as well. People need to stop jumping on other folks for drawing a comparison to a season which may not be that great of an analog as a whole.

 

That being said, I would rather be able to draw parralels to colder, snowier seasons than mild ones , but i'd like to think that I don't allow that to cloud my thought process. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

So far, the PDO has been following 1997 pretty close, July had the highest PDO value since 1997, now it's begun to slowly drop in August. The PDO really began to drop off in October of 1997, when the jet matured, wavelengths changed and a huge vortex formed in the GOA in mid October that year and upwelled the warm pool into nothing. During the winter of 1998 is when the PDO went negative. Does that happen again this year? Who knows?

Right. 

Like I was saying....just drawing parallels to a given season doesn't mean that you are endorsing a sensible weather repeat.

This is why it pissed me off when people jumped down my throat after I referenced how closely the current ENSO event mirrors that of 2009 with regard to how east based it is at the moment.

 

Does that mean cold and snowy?

"Who knows"?

[uncle W]

this year is basically a second year nino and using the mei numbers 1877-78, 1905-06, 1914-15, 1930-31, 1940-41 and 1987-88 should be considered analogs for this winter...

[40/70 Benchmark]

this year is basically a second year nino and using the mei numbers 1877-78, 1905-06, 1914-15, 1930-31, 1940-41 and 1987-88 should be considered analogs for this winter...

How important is that really?

Whether it is a second year nino......I've always thought that was overrated...

[PB GFI]

UNC where was the AO in sept 82- 97 . The warmer pos ENSO winters ? 

Here is the AO this Sept clearly -  MAYBE WSI is onto something . 

 

Lastly , analogs aside , if one wants to see why the GUIDANCE sees the greatest forcing out towards the date line , maybe it is because that is where the largest above normal anomalies are .

 

Where we force will matter . Now why the focus on a small blob of warm water in the 1.2 region while ignoring the huge anomalies in the 3 and 3.4 region which roughly cover 10 x it`s size is anyone`s guess .

 

Last 5 weeks out of the 1.2 region

 

2.7

2.4

1.8

2

2.2   After losing .9C it recovered .4C  .

Not exactly significant , but to be fair not a complete non event.  

 

This region does tend to be volatile , but a small anomaly does not  do it for me especially what is sitting out in the rest of the basin and in the face of the guidance . 

Oh and I will ignore the warm water S of the Aleutians for now . 

[OSUmetstud]

The warmest waters are nearly always near the dateline. They were in 1997 too.

[ClicheVortex2014]

1957-'58 is is absolutely an analog.

 

I don't know whether you are obsessed with warmth, or have the most emphatic array of defense mechanisms known to man, but you seem to have an alarm clock set for any post that implies anything other than a classic, warm eastern based ENSO event.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention 2003 or 2010 as an analog.

But I have seen folks compare and contrast, as they are were stronger ENSO events.

I laughed out loud at this

 

I'm just amazed how Nino 4 is still not warming up. CFS is too cool in 1+2 and too warm in 4. Green dots are observed values for the start of the month

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doesn't surprise me.

This isn't, and never will be a modoki.

Nor is it going to be east based.

 

Basin wide.

[PB GFI]

The warmest waters are nearly always near the dateline. They were in 1997 too.

I believe in both 82 and 97 the warmer anomalies were found east of 120 so much so the coast of Peru had their all time highest rainfalls.

I think this year the greatest heat is west of 120 although ( basin wide )

And the forcing , the greatest T storms will go off near the dateline

So the downstream effect may be different here.

We are seeing is a trough in the means in the SE as per ALL of the guidance.

I guess where the actual mid level forcing sets up will determine how far back west you can pull the greatest height fields as to give the N jet a chance to get involved.

The CFS says you end up with a STJ and no cold source

ALL of the other guidance disagrees and I am In this camp.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Doesn't surprise me.

This isn't, and never will be a modoki.

Nor is it going to be east based.

 

Basin wide.

Agreed except for the part about being surprised; I'm surprised. Talk about a stubborn Nino. 

 

I'm excited to see how JAMSTEC changes from the August update. Should be here within 2 weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agreed except for the part about being surprised; I'm surprised. Talk about a stubborn Nino. 

 

I'm excited to see how JAMSTEC changes from the August update. Should be here within 2 weeks.

Well, I guess it is interesting that those readings  have been so static, but the configuration of the even doesn't surprise me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I believe in both 82 and 97 the warmer anomalies were found east of 120 so much so the coast of Peru had their all time highest rainfalls.

I think this year the greatest heat is west of 120 although ( basin wide )

And the forcing , the greatest T storms will go off near the dateline

So the downstream the effect may be different here.

We are seeing is a trough in the means in the SE as per ALL of the guidance.

I guess where the actual mid level forcing sets up will determine how far back west you can pull the greatest height fields as to give the N jet a chance to get involved.

The CFS says you end up with a STJ and no cold source

ALL of the other guidance disagrees and I am In this camp.

Agreed.