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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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There are some similarities.. Some of you guys put to much weight on the condition of the Nino. There are other factors.

 

Um, except that is what is being compared here. This year's Nino is being compared to past Ninos. In years where ENSO forcing is very strong (such as currently), it can tend to overwhelm these "other factors" you are referring to.

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This Nino is not similar in the least to 09-10. There are even certain people trying to say 02-03 is an analog too which is totally absurd and ridiculous. 57-58 is also not a good Nino analog

57/58 and 9/10 are good analogs because nyc got a lot of snow! duh.
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Um, except that is what is being compared here. This year's Nino is being compared to past Ninos. In years where ENSO forcing is very strong (such as currently), it can tend to overwhelm these "other factors" you are referring to.

Have it your way. I don't see the Nino completely changing the whole pattern. (And no, I'm not a snow weenie so that shouldn't be brought up)

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Have it your way. I don't see the Nino completely changing the whole pattern. (And no, I'm not a snow weenie so that shouldn't be brought up)

 

What?

 

The atmospheric response to the Nino has recently reached all-time record levels and we have seen a pattern regime over the last month that we haven't seen consistently in at least two years.

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If you would pay attention to my comment I clearly posted "completely changing the whole pattern" , not the Nino has no effect on the pattern. And also, I'm referring to the pattern during winter, not now. Read more post less.

 

Uh, you're arguing semantics. The Nino has had wholesale effects on the pattern this spring and summer, and it effectively has caused a major shift in the pattern over this period (see the Great Plains flooding during the spring after 2+ years of drought that was caused by the active sub-tropical jet generated by ENSO forcing).

 

Why would these effects stop happening going into winter? Also hilarious you telling me to read more/post less, don't think you're at that stage where you can do that, champ.

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Uh, you're arguing semantics. The Nino has had wholesale effects on the pattern this spring and summer, and it effectively has caused a major shift in the pattern over this period (see the Great Plains flooding during the spring after 2+ years of drought that was caused by the active sub-tropical jet generated by ENSO forcing).

Why would these effects stop happening going into winter? Also hilarious you telling me to read more/post less, don't think you're at that stage where you can do that, champ.

Andy , we have been arguing here for the better part of 3 months as to where to expect the strongest forcing.

This Nino is basin wide event with the greatest departures from normal being found in the 3 and 3.4 region .

The guidance suggests that the best forcing from D thru F wants to go off near the dateline and not in the eastern region.

There should be a trough in the means in the SE , all of the guidance is there. I think those 2 pieces are starting to come into focus on the guidance.

What many are looking for is 1 what does the EPO region look like come D and we will.have to see how much that region cools and where do the greatest height anomalies show up in canada.

Top far east and you cut off low level arctic air . But if the ridge pops up on the west shores of Hudson bay like the euro seasonal shows it will allow a piece of the N jet to get involved.

Lastly I have stated earlier a real big piece will come into focus on the Atlantic side as we get deeper into the fall.

So there are some pieces there and certianly there are also pieces that need to show up but if the forcing originates In the central basin then other factors are going to matter.

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Am I missing something? The data from here shows the Nino has stabilized if not slightly weakened from peak numbers lately.

I'm guessing there are numerous data sets and each varies on intensity.

There are official readings by the CPC that are released every week... then there are the unofficial readings such as Tropicaltidbits that are updated 4 times a day. 

 

The SOI has been weakly positive for 2 days in a row, so it's plausible that 3.4 has cooled a bit. We'll see on Monday.

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Am I missing something? The data from here shows the Nino has stabilized if not slightly weakened from peak numbers lately.

I'm guessing there are numerous data sets and each varies on intensity.

 

The Tropical Tidbits charts imply that Region 3.4 has cooled since the weak centered around August 19 and has essentially been flat for the most part since just before mid-July. In fact, Region 3.4 has been steadily warming, and the week centered around August 26 had the warmest ones yet, according to CPC's weekly data. In short, one should not automatically assume that Region 3.4 has been cooling. We'll see soon enough when the next report is issued on Monday.

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The Tropical Tidbits charts imply that Region 3.4 has cooled since the weak centered around August 19 and has essentially been flat for the most part since just before mid-July. In fact, Region 3.4 has been steadily warming, and the week centered around August 26 had the warmest ones yet, according to CPC's weekly data. In short, one should not automatically assume that Region 3.4 has been cooling. We'll see soon enough when the next report is issued on Monday.

There is clear strengthening going on Don, tropical tidbits is unstable
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It's all about where the best forcing sets up. If the forcing sets up in Nino 4, then it will be in a similar location

as 02-03, 09-10, and 57-58 to some extent. That would allow -EPO intervals like those three winters and a chance

of above normal seasonal snowfall in NYC.

The magnitude of the warming is greater than those three events to date. So this event may very well feature

more precipitation along the STJ track than those three winters. This event could also have a sharper spike

in global temperatures since it's so much stronger.

The CP index just set the record for August so we are already well ahead of 2009-10 in magnitude.

But you can see the EP index currently lagging well behind 97-98 and 82-83. Hence the current

comparisons to 09-10, 02-03, 57-58 for location of warmest SST's.

Agreed . I think we agree no 2 NINOs are exactly alike . We all respect the physical drivers here and are aware how this could end up badly for us . When we are ( hopefully ) sitting here next year as a LA NINA is going off and there is a SE ridge in the means forecast for the winter of 16/17 , trust me no is going to be looking for ways of how it could snow on the coastal plain at 40N .

But that`s next year ......

But ok , forget the analogs for a minute and just look at the actual drivers/guidance that are in front of us .

We have a STRONG basin wide NINO where the greatest warmth is found in the 3 and 3.4 region . Secondly the models want the greatest D- F forcing to come from around the dateline .

So as a result there is likely a TROUGH in the SE in the means come this winter . The EURO seasonal ,CFSV2, JAMSTEC ,SST UKMET seasonal NMME all show you this , so those 2 pieces are becoming clear / exist ( As per the guidance ) .

So what`s left to figure out for the rest of the forecast ? The NON winter argument is with such a strong NINO , you are going to cut the cold air off in Canada and be left with only a strong STJ and no cold air to work with along the EC . Now we see how that`s possible and no one should dismiss that out of hand sitting here in Sept . But for those who say lets not use analogs oh and BTW ( No one is using a particular analog because it shows " SNOW " for NYC .) , we use them to see where the similarities are in certain regions as to gauge what/where the downstream effects were to give us better insight as to what is POSSIBLE and not certain .

So if we throw away the analogs for a minute and just use the guidance we see for the most part it is telling you there should be a NEG @ 500 south of the Aleutians which in turn as the Euro seasonal , SST, Jamstec and NMME see it pulls the highest heights west of Hudson Bay which give you the opening to seed with HP .

The CFS has a slightly different look , its mean ridge position is further east in Canada , because it places the greatest NEG is further east in the PAC so it just cuts the cold air off.

The guidance see the same drivers at work here . A strong NINO with a trough in the SE in the means . But IMO and all the non CFS guidance suggests if you force out of the dateline you should pull the ridge further west and that should allow the N jet to get involved .

As far as the analogs go , mark this year down , because in a very small sample size this year may stick out like a sore thumb :)

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I'd be worried if it was cool now like a typical el nino brings this time of year...1965, 1976, 1982 , 1986 etc...there are not many el nino years with a hot August/September combo...2002 was the last el nino year like that but it got wet in September 2002...1968 and 1969 had late season heat and above normal temperatures in September...This year is not your typical el nino in the sensible way...

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some el nino years didn't have any measurable snow until January...1966, 1973, 1995, 1998, 2007 were years with no snow until January...it took until January 29th, 1973 for the first measurable snow in NYC...1998 was 1/18...1966 was 1/20...I hate years like that but some of them had snow in February...

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The monthly temp anomalies in Nino region 3.4 have just moved ahead of where 1997 was at this time: https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/639575494963269632

 

 

However, one must examine the antecedent conditions for full context of situation. 1996-97 was a borderline weak La Nina, and didn't become +ENSO until the AMJ trimonthly period. 2014-15 was warm ENSO / borderline weak El Nino, and thus the launching pad was quite a bit higher than 1997. The fact that the two years are intersecting at this juncture has little relevance insofar as the maximum magnitude of the event. 1997 continued a pace of rapid intensification through the months of Sept, Oct, and Nov. That rate of intensification from this point forward is highly unlikely in my opinion, due to a variety of reasons, some of which I've mentioned in this thread.

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We mentioned region 1+2 warming last week but wow, there are now anomalies of +5.3C showing up in it. It would appear a period of very explosive warming is occurring and this was definitely not predicted by any model. The weeklies are about to see a huge uptick in temps for that region. https://twitter.com/mario___ramirez/status/640294329194516480

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This Nino is not similar in the least to 09-10. There are even certain people trying to say 02-03 is an analog too which is totally absurd and ridiculous. 57-58 is also not a good Nino analog

1957-'58 is is absolutely an analog.

 

I don't know whether you are obsessed with warmth, or have the most emphatic array of defense mechanisms known to man, but you seem to have an alarm clock set for any post that implies anything other than a classic, warm eastern based ENSO event.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention 2003 or 2010 as an analog.

But I have seen folks compare and contrast, as they are were stronger ENSO events.

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Bottom line is, there aren't many (if any) good analogs. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say 82-83 for magnitude an anomaly placement (strongest warming was further west than 97-98 --) but trying to make comparisons on US weather based on that analog is contaminated by El Chicon and climate changes since then (hi Hadley Cells).

 

 

Um, except that is what is being compared here. This year's Nino is being compared to past Ninos. In years where ENSO forcing is very strong (such as currently), it can tend to overwhelm these "other factors" you are referring to.

The problem is one born of (mis)perception.

 

Folks are getting ENSO analogs and sensible weather analogs confused.

Intertwining conjecture regarding the two in the same thread is a recipe for debates that shouldn't even be taking place.

 

1973 is absolutely an ENSO analog, but it is a worse sensible weather analog than 1958.

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1957-'58 is is absolutely an analog.

 

I don't know whether you are obsessed with warmth, or have the most emphatic array of defense mechanisms known to man, but you seem to have an alarm clock set for any post that implies anything other than a classic, warm eastern based ENSO event.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention 2003 or 2010 as an analog.

But I have seen folks compare and contrast, as they are were stronger ENSO events.

 

1957-'58 is is absolutely an analog.

 

I don't know whether you are obsessed with warmth, or have the most emphatic array of defense mechanisms known to man, but you seem to have an alarm clock set for any post that implies anything other than a classic, warm eastern based ENSO event.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention 2003 or 2010 as an analog.

But I have seen folks compare and contrast, as they are were stronger ENSO events.

 

1957-'58 is is absolutely an analog.

 

I don't know whether you are obsessed with warmth, or have the most emphatic array of defense mechanisms known to man, but you seem to have an alarm clock set for any post that implies anything other than a classic, warm eastern based ENSO event.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention 2003 or 2010 as an analog.

But I have seen folks compare and contrast, as they are were stronger ENSO events.

He seems obsessed with 97-98 as an analog which means little snow even for his area.

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