Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Yes.

Basin wide with the greatest anomalies in 3 and 3.4

I didn't mean central based as in no above normal departures in eastern regions.

All I meant was greatest departures in the central regions.

Agree and the guidance cools R 1.2  S- N and seems to keep the greater heat potential into the fall through N-D in R 3 - 3.4  - 4 

 

I think the greatest forcing should be generated in the central basin region ( at least going by the guidance ) .

 

That`s why many of us here never bought 97/98 as some thought early on. Some here  agreed this would not end up an east based Nino. 

[snowman19]

Agree and the guidance cools R 1.2 S- N and seems to keep the greater heat potential into the fall through N-D in R 3 - 3.4 - 4

I think the greatest forcing should be generated in the central basin region ( at least going by the guidance ) .

That`s why many of us here never bought 97/98 as some thought early on. Some here agreed this would not end up an east based Nino.

I know the guidance is showing that region 1+2 should be cooling right now, but look at what is happening right now, in real time, it's actually warming not cooling and there is a very strong downwelling kelvin wave pressing east along with a wwb that is causing it to warm. It looks like it has gone up possibly pretty substantially too if you look at the new up to date animations over the past week. The models definitely did not see this current warming push. Question is does it continue? And for how long? What is going on right now in that region definitely was not predicted well..

[PB GFI]

I know the guidance is showing that region 1+2 should be cooling right now, but look at what is happening right now, in real time, it's actually warming not cooling and there is a very strong downwelling kelvin wave pressing east along with a wwb that is causing it to warm. It looks like it has gone up possibly pretty substantially too if you look at the new up to date animations over the past week. The models definitely did not see this current warming push. Question is does it continue? And for how long? What is going on right now in that region definitely was not predicted well..

 

 

R 1.2  had ticked down for 3 straight weeks after it`s peak of 2.6 . only to tick up last week . This region is always been classified  the most volatile . However I think it has peaked .

This region was modeled to cool then level off  then fall again later this fall . But the central regions have been modeled to increase ( and they have ) as the greatest heat continues to spread west .

 

You can see where Chris posted the best forcing D-F is around the dateline . Almost all the guidance is there .   We opined early on this would NOT be an east based event . No matter how hard some tried , this went basin like we originally thought .

 

Is it possible R 1.2  ticks up again only to fall as we get deeper into fall sure and it would not surprise me .  But the trend for me is the greatest deviations should be found in the 3 and 3.4 region . 

 

R4  has warmed like the guidance thought , it just lagged a but R3 and R 3.4 have increased every week and the models continue it`s rise . I think you are trying to force something here that is not occurring . 

 

The guidance has been pretty good and I think the greatest forcing come D- F is out of the central basin and not from the east .

[snowman19]

R 1.2 had ticked down for 3 straight weeks after it`s peak of 2.6 . only to tick up last week . This region is always been classified the most volatile . However I think it has peaked .

This region was modeled to cool then level off then fall again later this fall . But the central regions have been modeled to increase ( and they have ) as the greatest heat continues to spread west .

You can see where Chris posted the best forcing D-F is around the dateline . Almost all the guidance is there . We opined early on this would NOT be an east based event . No matter how hard some tried , this went basin like we originally thought .

Is it possible R 1.2 ticks up again only to fall as we get deeper into fall sure and it would not surprise me . But the trend for me is the greatest deviations should be found in the 3 and 3.4 region .

R4 has warmed like the guidance thought , it just lagged a but R3 and R 3.4 have increased every week and the models continue it`s rise . I think you are trying to force something here that is not occurring .

The guidance has been pretty good and I think the greatest forcing come D- F is out of the central basin and not from the east .

Not trying to force anything, I can't make region 1+2 warm, it's doing it on its own right now, I'm not behind it and also have stated multiple times that it is a basin wide Nino over the last month. All I'm doing is stating what is happening, it's fact not my opinion. There is pretty big warming going on right now in that region and the models did not predict it, according to model projections it should be cooling right now, not warming like it is. This has been ongoing literally since April, the models show region 1+2 too cool and under predict warming, they also show region 4 too warm and show warming that doesn't happen. Don S pointed this out several times already, those 2 regions have been poorly predicted for months now and this is yet another example. They have been much better with regions 3.4 and 3, by far

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

 

Read carefully.

 

I said I was marginally off topic for referring to seasonal analogs, as opposed to purely ENSO analogs.

 

I disagree with you.

Guidance is pretty insistent that the greatest anomalies will shift westward into 3 and 3.4.

Obviously the greatest anomalies are gonna be in 3 and 3.4. Again... call it what you want, but the outlook for the Nino is similar to whatever you'd call 1972-73 and 1957-58. 

 

The greatest departures from normal are found in Region 3 and 3.4 . So this is not an east based NINO .

R 3 - 3.4 continue to looks strong through the fall , as R 1.2  looks to have already peaked . 

 

To give one an idea of an east based vs central NINO R 1.2  was at 2.6  3 weeks ago than dropped to 1.7 inside those 3 weeks before ticking  back to 2 . 

 

I have not seen guidance that spikes the region again . 

I would define this Nino as basin wide with the strongest forcing by the time we get into the winter to originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions . 

During this same time R 4 has also ticked up 

 

BASIN WIDE 

.....................1+2...3...3.4....4

05AUG2015... 2.6  2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015   2.0  2.2  2.0  0.9

19AUG2015   1.7  2.2  2.1  1.1

26AUG2015   2.0  2.3 2.2  1.1

 

EAST BASED 

VS

27AUG1997  3.7  2.7 2.0  0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why are you still beating the dead horse about east-based Nino and 1997-98?

[PB GFI]

Not trying to force anything, I can't make region 1+2 warm, it's doing it on its own right now, I'm not behind it and also have stated multiple times that it is a basin wide Nino over the last month. All I'm doing is stating what is happening, it's fact not my opinion. There is pretty big warming going on right now in that region and the models did not predict it, according to model projections it should be cooling right now, not warming like it is. This has been ongoing literally since April, the models show region 1+2 too cool and under predict warming, they also show region 4 too warm and show warming that doesn't happen. Don S pointed this out several times already, those 2 regions have been poorly predicted for months now and this is yet another example. They have been much better with regions 3.4 and 3, by far

 

I see 3 declining weeks followed by an uptick . 

 

.....................1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6  

12AUG2015   2.0  

19AUG2015   1.7  

26AUG2015   2.0  

 

 

The guidance " FROM " April began to show cooling in the 1.2 region in July , it lagged about 3 weeks or so , but then declined .

I don`t recall seeing any guidance declining the region starting in April . Maybe you can post it . 

[PB GFI]

Region 1+2 has not trended down for the past 3 weeks. It increased to 2.0C in the most recent week.

 

 

Obviously the greatest anomalies are gonna be in 3 and 3.4. Again... call it what you want, but the outlook for the Nino is similar to whatever you'd call 1972-73 and 1957-58. 

 

Why are you still beating the dead horse about east-based Nino and 1997-98?

 

Ya think ? I am the on that posted it . 

But it peaked at 2.6 .

 

I know you are kind of new here and maybe did not take the time to go back and read from page 1 on , but there were those who believed this would end up an east based event .

 

Don`t ask me to clarify my writings again , I am on here too long and have too much cred  feel me ? 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I see 3 declining weeks followed by an uptick . 

 

.....................1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6  

12AUG2015   2.0  

19AUG2015   1.7  

26AUG2015   2.0  

 

 

The guidance " FROM " April began to show cooling in the 1.2 region in July , it lagged about 3 weeks or so , but then declined .

I don`t recall seeing any guidance declining the region starting in April . Maybe you can post it . 

Easy

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ya think ? I am the on that posted it . 

But it peaked at 2.6 .

 

I know you are kind of new here and maybe did not take the time to go back and read from page 1 on , but there were those who believed this would end up an east based event .

 

Yes but that was months ago. Everyone now knows this isn't an east-based Nino.

 

Don`t ask me to clarify my writings again , I am on here too long and have too much cred  feel me ? 

 

Yeah you've been here for almost 4 years. That automatically makes you smarter than someone who just joined this forum, right? Great logic. The date at which you joined this forum says nothing about your intelligence. That's the most arrogant thing I've heard/read all day. 

[snowman19]

I see 3 declining weeks followed by an uptick .

.....................1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6

12AUG2015 2.0

19AUG2015 1.7

26AUG2015 2.0

The guidance " FROM " April began to show cooling in the 1.2 region in July , it lagged about 3 weeks or so , but then declined .

I don`t recall seeing any guidance declining the region starting in April . Maybe you can post it .

When I get time later I will look it up, point being the models have been very bad forecasting 1+2 and 4, it's an ongoing issue for months now like I said. They show 1+2 too cool and region 4 too warm and show it having warming surges that don't happen, just like they showed 1+2 cooling right now, yet again, meanwhile as we can see it's doing the opposite, warming, forecast fail for 1+2 again. The other 2 regions have been well predicted for the most part, there is a clear problem with 1+2 and 4 though

[swamplover56]

I rarely post but Pb is one of the most knowledgeable and best posters on this site. Troll elsewhere

Yes but that was months ago. Everyone now knows this isn't an east-based Nino.

Yeah you've been here for almost 4 years. That automatically makes you smarter than someone who just joined this forum, right? Great logic. The date at which you joined this forum says nothing about your intelligence. That's the most arrogant thing I've heard/read all day.

[PB GFI]

Easy

 

The guidance " FROM " April began to show cooling in the 1.2 region in July , it lagged about 3 weeks or so , but then declined .

 

So you post a declining 1.2 region was predicted to fall in  JULY  ? 

[PB GFI]

 

 

Yes but that was months ago. Everyone now knows this isn't an east-based Nino.

 

 

Yeah you've been here for almost 4 years. That automatically makes you smarter than someone who just joined this forum, right? Great logic. The date at which you joined this forum says nothing about your intelligence. That's the most arrogant thing I've heard/read all day. 

 

Well you can say that on SEPT 3 , BUT did you say that back in MAY  ?  And there were those  that disagreed with this . Now some of the same people are making the same forcing arguments .

The best forcing is modeled to come out of the central basin. Why ? it is where the NINO is the strongest and longest . 

 

I don`t think I am smarter than anyone , I let me calls speak for themselves . You are a new jack here  and way too heavy footed , I will step on your toes if you don`t dial it down . 

 

J-J-A  Could get to 1.8 - 2  But then pulls back west in  D-J- F . 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The guidance " FROM " April began to show cooling in the 1.2 region in July , it lagged about 3 weeks or so , but then declined .

 

So you post a declining 1.2 region was predicted to fall in  JULY  ? 

Maybe he mis-remembered about saying it was showing that in April, but it definitely showed a drop around this time in the May update. Gotta give credit where credit is due. CFS had this Nino 1+2 dip figured out for a while.

 

Well you can say that on SEPT 3 , BUT did you say that back in MAY  ?  And there were those  that disagreed with this . Now some of the same people are making the same forcing arguments .

The best forcing is modeled to come out of the central basin. Why ? it is where the NINO is the strongest and longest . 

 

I don`t think I am smarter than anyone , I let me calls speak for themselves . You are a new jack here  and way too heavy footed , I will step on your toes if you don`t dial it down . 

Why does it still matter what people thought in May? No one is calling this an east-based Nino anymore, and you just posted about how this isn't an east-based Nino. It's September 3. The horse has been dead for a while now.

 

Nice threat and attempts at intimidating me by the way. It isn't gonna work on me. 

[PB GFI]

Maybe he mis-remembered about saying it was showing that in April, but it definitely showed a drop around this time in the May update. Gotta give credit where credit is due. CFS had this Nino 1+2 dip figured out for a while.

Why does it still matter what people thought in May? No one is calling this an east-based Nino anymore, and you just posted about how this isn't an east-based Nino. It's September 3. The horse has been dead for a while now.

Nice threat and attempts at intimidating me by the way. It isn't gonna work on me.

Misremembered ? No its called being wrong and misleading the readers in order to quantify a position.

Again , the best guidance suggests the best forcing pops up around the dateline and not in the 1.2 region.

Lastly when you respond to my posts don't start out with , easy and you will not get a dck response .

[Isotherm]

Maybe he mis-remembered about saying it was showing that in April, but it definitely showed a drop around this time in the May update. Gotta give credit where credit is due. CFS had this Nino 1+2 dip figured out for a while.

 

Why does it still matter what people thought in May? No one is calling this an east-based Nino anymore, and you just posted about how this isn't an east-based Nino. It's September 3. The horse has been dead for a while now.

 

Nice threat and attempts at intimidating me by the way. It isn't gonna work on me. 

 

 

Quite a few posters have been speculating about the similarities of this year to 1997-98, and Paul, myself, a couple others in this thread have been generally been posting opposing viewpoints for quite awhile regarding the orientation and magnitude of the ENSO event. Up until recently, the argument for an east based event was still floating around, and that's what Paul's responding to, I believe. Only recently has it now become apparent to the majority that we're looking at a basin wide event, and an east based orientation like 1997-98 is likely off the table. There's still ongoing debate concerning magnitude, with some in the camp that we see a trimonthly peak of > 2.1c, while others, believe super Nino trimonthly status is unlikely (I fall into this line of thinking).

[SACRUS]

 

MEI Value

 

Jul/Aug: 2.367

 

Closest Actuals (value);

 

1987: 1.982

1972: 1.827

1982: 1.817

1997: 3.038

1965: 1.436

 

 

Closest trends:

YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG 

2015    .406    .468    .65    .953    1.567    2.06    1.972    2.367

 

1987    1.237    1.184    1.727    1.867    2.14    1.954    1.855    1.982    

1982    -.278    -.138    .102    -.013    .432    .965    1.614    1.817

1997    -.485    -.602    -.244    .537    1.17    2.339    2.826    3.038

1972    -.594    -.417    -.251    -.195    .5    1.106    1.826    1.827

 

[SACRUS]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html 

The six loading fields show the correlations between the local anomalies and the MEI time series. Land areas as well as the Atlantic are excluded and flagged in green, while typically noisy regions with no coherent structures and/or lack of data are shown in grey. Each field is denoted by a single capitalized letter and the explained variance for the same field in the Australian corner.

The sea level pressure (P) loadings show the familiar signature of the Southern Oscillation: high pressure anomalies in the west and low pressure anomalies in the east correspond to positive MEI values, or El Niño-like conditions. Consistent with P, U has positive loadings centered along the Equator, corresponding to westerly anomalies mostly west of the dateline. In contrast, significant negative loadings cover the easternmost Pacific off the Central American coast, denoting easterly anomalies during El Niño at this time ofyear. The meridional wind field (V) features its biggest negative loadings north of the Equator across the eastern Pacific basin, flagging the southward shift of the ITCZ that is common during El Niño-like conditions, juxtaposed with large positive loadings northeast of Australia (southerly anomalies during El Niño).

Both sea (S) and air (A) surface temperature fields exhibit the typical ENSO signature of a wedge of positive loadings stretching from the Central and South American coast to just east of the dateline, or warm anomalies during an El Niño event. At the same time, total cloudiness © tends to be increased over the central and western equatorial Pacific (mainly east of Indonesia), while the easternmost Pacific is often less cloudy than normal east of Galapagos.

The MEI now stands for 23.8% of the explained variance of all six fields in the tropical Pacific from 30N to 30S, having regained about 6% since May-June. Seventeen years ago, right after the MEI was introduced to the internet, the explained variance of the MEI for July-August 1950-1997 amounted to 26.5%. This drop-off by almost 3% reflects the diminished coherence and importance of ENSO events in much of the recent 17 years, although it has regained 1.0% compared to last year's minimum. The loading patterns shown here resemble the seasonal composite anomaly fields of Year 0 in Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982).

With the MEI indicating even stronger El Niño conditions, one can find a long list of key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). Every one of them flags El Niño rather than La Niña conditions.

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate very high sea level pressure anomalies (P) northwest of Australia, strong westerly wind anomalies (U) along the Equator, especially close to the dateline, southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, and very high sea surface (S) and air temperatures (A) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) have become reestablished over the eastern equatorial Pacific as well as near Hawai'i for sea level pressure (P). They also flag increased easterlies (U) off the Central American coast, strongly increased northerlies (V) over the same region, anomalously cold air temperatures (A) east of Australia, and decreased cloudiness © near Galapagos. Compared to last month, both SLP and SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific have grown in the normalized sense.

In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.

Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI has increased significantly by 0.39 standard deviations to +2.37, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 remaining in a 'Super El Niño' club of their own (for now), with peak values around +3 standard deviations.

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining July-August values compared to earlier in the year gives us the same five 'analogues' as last month: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective calendar years. However, three of them ('65, '72, and '97) peaked already in July-August (the current season), followed by minor declines by the end of the year. Only 1982 showed continued growth right into the following year, while 1987 had already peaked back in May of that year.

Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90W to 170W, with a few peak values in excess of +3C.

For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (August 13th, 2015), El Niño conditions were diagnosed, and are expected to continue through the rest of 2015 with a greater than 90% chance. I see no reason to disagree with this assessment.

There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, just in time for this go-around. Since October 2014, Niño region 3.4 first hovered around +0.5C, but rose steadily from April onwards, reaching +1.3C in June, +1.6C, and +2.1C in August. Niño region 3 dropped out of weak El Niño conditions from January through March 2015, but quickly rose from +0.7C in April to +2.3C in August 2015.

For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2015, its value varied from +1 in February (neutral ENSO conditions) down to -11 in March, up again to -4 in April, and back down below -10 since May, reaching -20 in August, its lowest value since February 2005, and its first four-month run below -10 since early 1998.

An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates, with the last one to include data through 2014. Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now more than four years behind current conditions.

Stay tuned for the next update by October 5th (probably earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December 2014 through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing a renewed westerly wind surge near the dateline as of the beginning of September.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

Maybe he mis-remembered about saying it was showing that in April, but it definitely showed a drop around this time in the May update. Gotta give credit where credit is due. CFS had this Nino 1+2 dip figured out for a while.

Why does it still matter what people thought in May? No one is calling this an east-based Nino anymore, and you just posted about how this isn't an east-based Nino. It's September 3. The horse has been dead for a while now.

Nice threat and attempts at intimidating me by the way. It isn't gonna work on me.

 

Misremembered ? No its called being wrong and misleading the readers in order to quantify a position.

Again , the best guidance suggests the best forcing pops up around the dateline and not in the 1.2 region.

Lastly when you respond to my posts don't start out with , easy and you will not get a dck response .

I can't tell you what he was thinking when he said April. However, CFS hinted at this late summer Nino 1+2 drop since May.

 

 

 

Lastly when you respond to my posts don't start out with , easy and you will not get a dck response .

I don't understand why you're upset. I said it's easy to prove. Yes, he was wrong about CFS showing this dip back in April... but he was only off by a month. Who cares if it was April or May? That really doesn't null his argument. 

 

I rarely post but Pb is one of the most knowledgeable and best posters on this site. Troll elsewhere

Way to stick up for the bully

[donsutherland1]

Not trying to force anything, I can't make region 1+2 warm, it's doing it on its own right now, I'm not behind it and also have stated multiple times that it is a basin wide Nino over the last month. All I'm doing is stating what is happening, it's fact not my opinion. There is pretty big warming going on right now in that region and the models did not predict it, according to model projections it should be cooling right now, not warming like it is. This has been ongoing literally since April, the models show region 1+2 too cool and under predict warming, they also show region 4 too warm and show warming that doesn't happen. Don S pointed this out several times already, those 2 regions have been poorly predicted for months now and this is yet another example. They have been much better with regions 3.4 and 3, by far

ENSO Region 1+2 is perhaps the most poorly predicted region (likely due to proximity to land). The huge spread among the CFSv2's ensemble members bears this out.

 

Right now, the small rise might be a fluctuation in temperatures. A secondary peak is probably more likely than not given past experience with strong El Niño events, but in most cases the secondary peak wound up below the earlier peak. I think we'll have a much clearer idea concerning that region by some time in October.

 

My thinking remains that ENSO Region 3.4 will likely see a peak tri-monthly anomaly of +2.1°C. FWIW, the JJA tri-monthly figure came in at +1.22°C (the low end of the range I suggested in #1301). Given the warming of past strong El Niño events, that would support a peak tri-monthly figure of +2.1°C to +2.2°C. That's still cooler than the CFSv2 and some other guidance, but I want to see more data before moving to a warmer idea. The next 4-6 weeks could be critical. If the weekly Region 3.4 anomalies have surged to +2.5° to +2.6°C, a warmer idea than my current thinking will be likely.

 

The strong PDO+ at this time of year favors a PDO+ for the winter. Moreover, odds favor enough warm SSTAs in the Gulf of Alaska area to provide at least periods of EPO-. WSI's insight regarding July blocking and winter blocking suggests that the winter could be blocky. So, there are some factors that could be helpful for winter.

 

Is a warm and less snowy than normal winter on the proverbial table? Yes. Is it assured, No. My very early thinking is that the upcoming winter could evolve broadly along the lines of 1965-66 where a warm December gave way to cold at some point in January with increased opportunities for snowfall. Some guidance is supportive of a good winter. Other guidance is not.

 

It's really too soon for me to commit with any degree of confidence.

[OSUmetstud]

Don, care to shed some light on the greater than 0.5c difference between the two monthly data sets? 2.06c vs. 1.49c

[donsutherland1]

Don, care to shed some light on the greater than 0.5c difference between the two monthly data sets? 2.06c vs. 1.49c

I'm not sure. The difference between ERSSTv4 and OISSTv2 seems abnormally large.

 

Below is a comparison (ERSSTv4 SST - OISSTv2 SST) August 2015 vs. August 1997 and Previous 5 Years:

 

August 1997: -0.14°C

August 2011: +0.25°C

August 2012: -0.30°C

August 2013: +0.25°C

August 2014: -0.22°C

August 2015: -0.44°C

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know the guidance is showing that region 1+2 should be cooling right now, but look at what is happening right now, in real time, it's actually warming not cooling and there is a very strong downwelling kelvin wave pressing east along with a wwb that is causing it to warm. It looks like it has gone up possibly pretty substantially too if you look at the new up to date animations over the past week. The models definitely did not see this current warming push. Question is does it continue? And for how long? What is going on right now in that region definitely was not predicted well..

Region 1.2 is very malleable....careful.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Others beat me to it, but don't drive yourself crazy keeping a constant vigil on 1.2....

[40/70 Benchmark]

You have one that includes western Pac?

Awesome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2015 East PAC warming peaked about the same time that 2009 did.

[csnavywx]

2015 East PAC warming peaked about the same time that 2009 did.

1) It's early. 2) 09-10 isn't an analog of this Nino.

[snowman19]

1) It's early. 2) 09-10 isn't an analog of this Nino.

This Nino is not similar in the least to 09-10. There are even certain people trying to say 02-03 is an analog too which is totally absurd and ridiculous. 57-58 is also not a good Nino analog

[UnionWeatherWx]

This Nino is not similar in the least to 09-10. There are even certain people trying to say 02-03 is an analog too which is totally absurd and ridiculous. 57-58 is also not a good Nino analog

There are some similarities.. Some of you guys put to much weight on the condition of the Nino. There are other factors.

[csnavywx]

This Nino is not similar in the least to 09-10. There are even certain people trying to say 02-03 is an analog too which is totally absurd and ridiculous. 57-58 is also not a good Nino analog

Bottom line is, there aren't many (if any) good analogs. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say 82-83 for magnitude an anomaly placement (strongest warming was further west than 97-98 --) but trying to make comparisons on US weather based on that analog is contaminated by El Chicon and climate changes since then (hi Hadley Cells).