Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Looks like a bit of Pamela Anderson action....

 

 

DD on the left , full C on the right . I would love to see that deep NEG get reflected on the EC but clearly that`s my greedy side.

 I will take that neg in the SE . The key for me is the POS on Hudson Bay .

 

You should send HP through the lakes with a strong STJ with that look  . At least that`s the idea this far out . 

[Isotherm]

Chuck cited that.

 

I completely agree with your forecasted peak of the el Nino.

I also agree that the EPO will slacken, but I'm not sure it completely fades away.....or at least I hope not.

Should that take place, this may render 1958 an even stronger analog because that season was NAO driven.

 

I had been expecting a +NAO/AO and a -EPO, but and open to amending those call, as my final call is still a ways off.

What do you feel the ramifications of +EPO would be considering the balance of the anticipated atmospheric canvass across the N. hemisphere?

I think that makes the Atlantic crucial.

 

 

I think that the orientation of mid level features - specifically the longitude at which the most anomalous negative heights develop - is more important than the numerical mode of the EPO (+/-). If you look at some of the +EPO (in the means) strong El Nino winters, they featured different set-ups as far as the 500mb height anomaly orientation. What we don't want to see is a large, expansive GOA vortex with significant low heights extending into British Columbia, as that will more likely sever the arctic connection. A winter like 1957-58 was only slightly positive EPO in the means, with numerous -EPO periods. 2009-10 was another winter in which mid level heights were neutral or above normal on he British Columbian coast. My guess at this stage is we're looking at a near neutral to slightly positive EPO DJF average, with plenty of -EPO pulses interspersed. So the implications of a mean EPO regime similar to 1957-58 are not necessarily tragic insofar as cold / snow opportunities depending on the orientation of NPAC heights and the Arctic/Atlantic pattern. The NAO/AO can compensate for a slightly positive mean EPO, but I don't think the Atlantic would do much to save us with the negative height anomalies centered closer to the West Coast of North America.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yup....agreed PB

[Isotherm]

Great post. Imo, the EPO is most important in El Nino's. Along with the PDO.

 

 

I'm not sure we can make a statement as to which index is necessarily more important. If you want opportunities for larger snow events, the state of the NAO/AO is generally more crucial. If you want more persistent / frequent arctic outbreaks, the EPO is usually more important. The Pacific and Atlantic can sometimes join forces (rarely) to produce historic winters, or, option 2, the oceans have opposing patterns (seems to be the most common statistically), and of course, option 3 (what we all love), the Pacific/Atlantic combine to produce a historically warm winter regime.

[Isotherm]

Ripped from NE.

Looks like the Euro seasonal . 

 

 

Judging by that anomaly map, the EPO would probably average near neutral/slightly negative in the means, with a slightly more favorable EPO overall than a year like 1957-58 due to the placement of the low heights. Verbatim it would imply a conducive pattern for the development of troughiness in the E/SE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great post. Imo, the EPO is most important in El Nino's. Along with the PDO.

Up here, the NAO carries a lot of weight in el nino seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not sure we can make a statement as to which index is necessarily more important. If you want opportunities for larger snow events, the state of the NAO/AO is generally more crucial. If you want more persistent / frequent arctic outbreaks, the EPO is usually more important. The Pacific and Atlantic can sometimes join forces (rarely) to produce historic winters, or, option 2, the oceans have opposing patterns (seems to be the most common statistically), and of course, option 3 (what we all love), the Pacific/Atlantic combine to produce a historically warm winter regime.

Down there maybe....don't  think so here,

[PB GFI]

Judging by that anomaly map, the EPO would probably average near neutral/slightly negative in the means, with a slightly more favorable EPO overall than a year like 1957-58 due to the placement of the low heights. Verbatim it would imply a conducive pattern for the development of troughiness in the E/SE.

 

 

I think the model consensus sees the trough in means in the SE. The differences between the Euro and CFS is what does Canada look like at 500 . 

Are the Highest heights to the West of Hudson bay like the Euro thinks which would allow the N branch to sink S through 

the lakes or are those higher heights displaced east cutting the N branch off .

 

If we can pull the trough west in the GOA you pull the ridge back . I agree we really have to wait until the fall to see the structure of the PAC.

 

I don`t have a feeling on the Atlantic side yet , maybe you guys do . I have been so focused on the PAC. 

[Isotherm]

Down there maybe....don't  think so here,

 

 

I haven't run the correlations, but thinking meteorologically, downstream atmospheric blocks would tend to slow down the forward movement of east coast storm systems. Of course, eastern New England, by nature of its longitude, can receive monster snows without a downstream block, but the Pacific should be very amplified (as we saw last winter). I still would argue though, that your probability of major snowfall is higher in a -AO/NAO regime.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I haven't run the correlations, but thinking meteorologically, downstream atmospheric blocks would tend to slow down the forward movement of east coast storm systems. Of course, eastern New England, by nature of its longitude, can receive monster snows without a downstream block, but the Pacific should be very amplified (as we saw last winter). I still would argue though, that your probability of major snowfall is higher in a -AO/NAO regime.

Isn't that essentially what I just said..."up here"....

NE "sticks out", thus the NAO is more crucial to the south.

NNE and CNE are actually better off without it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously all things being equal I'd rather the NAO, but.....if you told me that I could only have one, then I'd take the EPO.

[Isotherm]

Isn't that essentially what I just said..."up here"....

NE "sticks out", thus the NAO is more crucial to the south.

NNE and CNE are actually better off without it.

 

 

More crucial further south, I agree. But as far as the probability of larger snow events, I would think a -NAO increases the probability from approximately your area southward in New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

More crucial further south, I agree. But as far as the probability of larger snow events, I would think a -NAO increases the probability from approximately your area southward in New England.

I agree with this, but it isn't crucial as it is to the south.

I'd still rather the EPO though.

 

This latitude is a real nexus of change...as NAO relevance begins to wane, and the snowfall begins to more closely correlate to precipitation, rather than temperature.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Upon my initial viewing of this , you look at the EPO region and say hmmmm it did cool , but  look at where it did WARM , South of the Aleutians, it is right where the Euro ensembles want to stick the deepest NEG .

 

So as we warm the 3.4 and 4 region into the late fall , you may continue to pull that warmer water west and that will pull the ridge west of HB creating a pos PNA  and not east of HB  like the CFS wants to stick it . 

 

Lets see if that continues .  I you warm that region, then the EURO seasonal will be right . 

 

If we go by the logic that the warm water in the North Pacific encourages a ridge (not saying it's wrong or right), then you wouldn't wait the warm water to extend west into the middle/end of the Aleutians. That would create a +WPO and/or +EPO. 

 

It seems like lots agree on a slow start to winter because of the GOA trough. That's just another reason why I don't care about what the SSTAs look like now. Once we get that trough, the area should cool quite a bit. With that said, I don't believe the water in the North Pacific will have much of an impact on this winter, unlike the past few years, because of the Nino. The forcing from the Nino ain't gonna care about the ~40 degree waters in the North Pacific.

 

One final note... the 500mb pattern in the CA analogs looks like a west-based Nino/forcing. It's very, very unlikely we're gonna have a west-based Nino, and I think it's unlikely that the forcing will be that far west. Remember, it's a set of analogs, and this year's pattern in the Pacific is very unique.

 

 

[PB GFI]

If we go by the logic that the warm water in the North Pacific encourages a ridge, then you wouldn't wait the warm water to extend west into the middle/end of the Aleutians. That would create a +WPO. 

 

It seems like lots agree on a slow start to winter because of the GOA trough. That's just another reason why I don't care about what the SSTAs look like now. Once we get that trough, the area should cool quite a bit. With that said, I don't believe the water in the North Pacific will have much of an impact on this winter, unlike the past few years, because of the Nino. The forcing from the Nino ain't gonna care about the ~40 degree waters in the North Pacific.

 

One final note... the 500mb pattern in the CA analogs looks like a west-based Nino/forcing. It's very, very unlikely we're gonna have a west-based Nino, and I think it's unlikely that the forcing will be that far west. Remember, it's a set of analogs, and this year's pattern in the Pacific is very unique.

 

 

 

 

The deep NEG develops  that there  pulls the ridge back and allows the higher heights to develop further west than where the CFS thinks it does  . THE NMME and Euro seasonal that do this at 500 , could give  you this 2M

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we go by the logic that the warm water in the North Pacific encourages a ridge (not saying it's wrong or right), then you wouldn't wait the warm water to extend west into the middle/end of the Aleutians. That would create a +WPO and/or +EPO. 

 

It seems like lots agree on a slow start to winter because of the GOA trough. That's just another reason why I don't care about what the SSTAs look like now. Once we get that trough, the area should cool quite a bit. With that said, I don't believe the water in the North Pacific will have much of an impact on this winter, unlike the past few years, because of the Nino. The forcing from the Nino ain't gonna care about the ~40 degree waters in the North Pacific.

 

One final note... the 500mb pattern in the CA analogs looks like a west-based Nino/forcing. It's very, very unlikely we're gonna have a west-based Nino, and I think it's unlikely that the forcing will be that far west. Remember, it's a set of analogs, and this year's pattern in the Pacific is very unique.

 

 

If this nino is central based, which is a good bet, we aren't going to have the forcing as far east as the torchy east-based ninos either.

 

I'm not sure why that screams positive EPO in the seasonal mean.

 

Will likely end up closer to neutral than last year, sure...

[ClicheVortex2014]

If this nino is central based, which is a good bet, we aren't going to have the forcing as far east as the torchy east-based ninos either.

 

I'm not sure why that screams positive EPO in the seasonal mean.

 

Will likely end up closer to neutral than last year, sure...

I never said this will be a +EPO seasonal mean or an east-based Nino.

 

I'm not sure how you define "central-based" Ninos... but this Nino looks similar to 72-73, and to a lesser extent but relatively close, 57-58. So you can call those what you want, but I think those are the 2 best years and I've seen them called basin-wide events. Where the forcing sets up is anyone's guess; we're 3 months away from the start of Meteorological winter after all. Nino 4 continues to fail to warm up, and I think that's something everyone needs to keep on the back of their minds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never said this will be a +EPO seasonal mean or an east-based Nino.

 

I'm not sure how you define "central-based" Ninos... but this Nino looks similar to 72-73, and to a lesser extent but relatively close, 57-58. So you can call those what you want, but I think those are the 2 best years and I've seen them called basin-wide events. Where the forcing sets up is anyone's guess; we're 3 months away from the start of Meteorological winter after all. Nino 4 continues to fail to warm up, and I think that's something everyone needs to keep on the back of their minds.

1973 is an absolutely heinous analog.

The Pacific is not like that, and if the PDO aligns in that manner, I will run naked into one of your fabled tornadoes.

[ClicheVortex2014]

1973 is an absolutely heinous analog.

The Pacific is not like that, and if the PDO aligns in that manner, I will run naked into one of your fabled tornadoes.

If you'd read my post before getting all excited, you'd know I said the "Nino of 72-73" is the most similar. Not the PDO. CFS is even further east than 72-73, but even the model that's furthest west (JAMSTEC) has a Nino similar to 72-73.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you'd read my post before getting all excited, I made sure to say the "Nino of 72-73" is the most similar. CFS is even further east than 72-73, but even the model that's furthest west (JAMSTEC) has a Nino similar to 72-73.

 

 

I'm not excited, I keep thinking that this is a "winter thread", as opposed to strictly ENSO.

 

Sure, maybe, but I'm speaking of seasonal analogs, so perhaps that is marginally OT.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm not excited, I keep thinking that this is a "winter thread", as opposed to strictly ENSO.

 

Sure, maybe, but I'm speaking of seasonal analogs, so perhaps that is marginally OT.

It's not off topic even for a winter thread. I'm talking about this year's Nino bias. That's one of the biggest factors for this winter. Also, you called this a central-based Nino, which I disagree with. What I was saying is that this looks like 72-73 and 57-58, which were basin-wide events. 

[snowman19]

It's not off topic even for a winter thread. I'm talking about this year's Nino bias. That's one of the biggest factors for this winter. Also, you called this a central-based Nino, which I disagree with. What I was saying is that this looks like 72-73 and 57-58, which were basin-wide events.

This is definitely not a central based Nino, I agree with you. This is clearly basin wide, it can't get anymore basin wide then it is and has been. It in no way shape or form resembles a modoki

[PB GFI]

The greatest departures from normal are found in Region 3 and 3.4 . So this is not an east based NINO .

R 3 - 3.4 continue to looks strong through the fall .

 

To give one an idea of an east based vs central NINO R 1.2  was at 2.6  3 weeks ago than dropped to 1.7 inside those 3 weeks before ticking  back to 2 . 

 

I have not seen guidance that spikes the region again . 

I would define this Nino as basin wide with the strongest forcing by the time we get into the winter to originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions . 

During this same time R 4 has also ticked up 

 

BASIN WIDE 

.....................1+2...3...3.4....4

05AUG2015... 2.6  2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015   2.0  2.2  2.0  0.9
19AUG2015   1.7  2.2  2.1  1.1

26AUG2015   2.0  2.3 2.2  1.1

 

EAST BASED 

VS

27AUG1997  3.7  2.7 2.0  0.5

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

I Agree, good post Chris .  I always though the best forcing would originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions 

[OSUmetstud]

I wonder why there's a larger discrepancy this year between the two nino data sets than 1997 so far

[PB GFI]

I wonder why there's a larger discrepancy this year between the two nino data sets than 1997 so far

 

 

Are they initializing with different data ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's not off topic even for a winter thread. I'm talking about this year's Nino bias. That's one of the biggest factors for this winter. Also, you called this a central-based Nino, which I disagree with. What I was saying is that this looks like 72-73 and 57-58, which were basin-wide events. 

Read carefully.

 

I said I was marginally off topic for referring to seasonal analogs, as opposed to purely ENSO analogs.

 

I disagree with you.

Guidance is pretty insistent that the greatest anomalies will shift westward into 3 and 3.4.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is definitely not a central based Nino, I agree with you. This is clearly basin wide, it can't get anymore basin wide then it is and has been. It in no way shape or form resembles a modoki

Good thing no one said it was a modoki, or ever will be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The greatest departures from normal are found in Region 3 and 3.4 . So this is not an east based NINO .

R 3 - 3.4 continue to looks strong through the fall , as R 1.2  looks to have already peaked . 

 

To give one an idea of an east based vs central NINO R 1.2  was at 2.6  3 weeks ago than dropped to 1.7 inside those 3 weeks before ticking  back to 2 . 

 

I have not seen guidance that spikes the region again . 

I would define this Nino as basin wide with the strongest forcing by the time we get into the winter to originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions . 

During this same time R 4 has also ticked up 

 

BASIN WIDE 

.....................1+2...3...3.4....4

05AUG2015... 2.6  2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015   2.0  2.2  2.0  0.9

19AUG2015   1.7  2.2  2.1  1.1

26AUG2015   2.0  2.3 2.2  1.1

 

EAST BASED 

VS

27AUG1997  3.7  2.7 2.0  0.5

 

 

 

 

 

Yes.

Basin wide with the greatest anomalies in 3 and 3.4

I didn't mean central based as in no above normal departures in eastern regions.

All I meant was greatest departures in the central regions.

[OSUmetstud]

Read carefully.

 

I said I was marginally off topic for referring to seasonal analogs, as opposed to purely ENSO analogs.

 

I disagree with you.

Guidance is pretty insistent that the greatest anomalies will shift westward into 3 and 3.4.

They're already there. Some of the models show the forcing near the dateline which is nino 4. Not sure if that will happen.