Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[donsutherland1]

Hence the " concern " that you are playing beat the clock to cool such a warm anomaly . 

 

Looks like 57/58 with a close 2nd .

Although it's still somewhat far out, the kind of warmth shown in Bluewave's chart typically sees warmer than normal SSTs during the following December-February period.

 

For all the years in which the July SSTs for the region were +15°C or above, the following December-February saw that region wind up warmer than the 1981-2010 average 69% of the time. In contrast, for all the other years, the following December-February period had SSTs that were cooler than the 1981-2010 average 64% of the time.

 

For those who are interested, the July 2015 value was +16.53°C. The previous warmest July figure was +16.09°C in 1958.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here it is... the questions everyone (the weather geeks) have been wondering... what did the Nino forcing look like this past month? How did it change from the month before? How does it compare to top analog years? (negative anomalies mean August 2015 saw more negative VP200, which indicates greater forcing)

 

The sum of August 2015:

 

The sum of July 2015:

 

My interpretation is that the forcing de-amplified, but the location of forcing stayed similar.

 

August 2015 minus July 2015

 

August 2015 minus August 1997

 

August 2015 minus August 1982

 

August 2015 minus August 1972

 

 

 

[snowman19]

It's certainly a possibility according to the guidance.

Don, and everyone else, take a look at this tweet by Eric Blake, this is just crazy, not only has region 3.4 ssts surpassed 1997 at this time but it has more heat at depth to bring to the surface this fall then that year did. This is just nuts that it actually looks like we are going to beat 1997-1998 right now. The heat content in the equatorial pacific right now is staggering. And the wwbs and kelvin waves continue unabated, at this point I would not doubt a +3.0C reading or even higher in region 3.4 on the weeklies coming up this fall... Link to tweet: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/638755712919732224

[donsutherland1]

Don, and everyone else, take a look at this tweet by Eric Blake, this is just crazy, not only has region 3.4 ssts surpassed 1997 at this time but it has more heat at depth to bring to the surface this fall then that year did. This is just nuts that it actually looks like we are going to beat 1997-1998 right now. The heat content in the equatorial pacific right now is staggering. And the wwbs and kelvin waves continue unabated, at this point I would not doubt a +3.0C reading or even higher in region 3.4 on the weeklies coming up this fall... Link to tweet: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/638755712919732224

This ENSO event has a lot of potential. It will be interesting to see how it continues to evolve. The next 4-6 weeks could be crucial in determining just how strong it becomes.

[SACRUS]

Australian Bureau Meteorology Sep 1 Update:

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150901.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sitting here today , I am inclined to buy a pattern set up that includes a  STJ - EPO  + PNA - AO in J - M

 

As far as a - NAO I would want to get closer before I am on board there . 

Odds for a negative NAO are on your side if the AO is indeed negative...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Isotherm, it would appear the Eurosip is agreeing with your idea of loosing the -EPO, according to Coastalwx over in the New England forum, it's showing a strong GOA vortex/+EPO for Nov, Dec, Jan: "The euro-sip has a pretty nasty GOAK trough with lower heights into the Aleutians for the NDJ timeframe. That's probably because The early winter may be non-existent anyways. You really need the DJF look, and we aren't there yet".

All he meant was that the first third of winter may be tame, which is nothing new.

December will likely be mild.

[40/70 Benchmark]

SSTS around Austrailia are rapidly cooling. Very dramatic changes going on. We are quickly going into a strong +IOD. This setup is prime for even more WWBs. See: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/635970424254296064

I'd be surprised if this topped 1997.

[PB GFI]

All he meant was that the first third of winter may be tame, which is nothing new.

December will likely be mild.

 

 

Agree with this . The Euro sip loses the - EPO but  a MONSTER - EPO shows up on the Euro seasonal D-F

I have been inclined to buy we start off AN in Dec , but that plus 5c water will get cooled and not erased in the EPO region and that will be enough to pull the trough SW of the Aleutians and that should pull the ridge onto the west shore of Hudson Bay and open up mid Jan thru early March here and up by you guys . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hence the " concern " that you are playing beat the clock to cool such a warm anomaly . 

 

Looks like 57/58 with a close 2nd .

1958 is my main sensible weather analog...

[PB GFI]

1958 is my main sensible weather analog...

 

 

I stole that from Tom here back in June - Gave it to JB and then he ran with it .

 

This was ISO`s earliest analog . Agree warm central basin with a warm EPO region . Strong STJ and a NEG EPO 

should allow the N JET  to show up post Jan 15 ish ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree with this . The Euro sip loses the - EPO but  a MONSTER - EPO shows up on the Euro seasonal D-F

I have been inclined to buy we start off AN in Dec , but that plus 5c water will get cooled and not erased in the EPO region and that will be enough to pull the trough SW of the Aleutians and that should pull the ridge onto the west shore of Hudson Bay and open up mid Jan thru early March here and up by you guys . 

Exactly....the Hudson will be replete with rescue boats until about mid January...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I stole that from Tom here back in June - Gave it to JB and then he ran with it .

 

This was ISO`s earliest analog . Agree warm central basin with a warm EPO region . Strong STJ and a NEG EPO 

should allow the N JET  to show up post Jan 15 ish ? 

Same page....everything will retrograde, and there will be a swift breeze around the tri state region, permeating throughout the met community as oozies are pulled from mouths... 

 

Here are my initial thoughts from July if you guys are interested....only thing I may change is the AO/NAO....implications would be small in sne, less snow in nne, and very good for you folks and into the MA.

I may pull that low anomaly off of the west coast westward too.

http://www.easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

 

In fact, I would place greatest seasonal snowfall anomalies from NYC south, like 2010 and 2003.

Interior sne will do markedly better than the coast owed to some huggers....

Should be some nice Miller As.

 

We could even see some REALLY suppressed events....

[PB GFI]

Very nice write up man ^ . 

[Isotherm]

I'm fairly confident at this juncture that region 1+2 warming is nearing or has already reached completion, namely, further ENSO warming will be restricted to regions 4, 3.4 and 3. This is apparent through an examination of subsurface anomaly trends over the past month; subsurface areas to the east of 100W longitude to 80W are now close to normal w/ pockets of cooler than normal developing immediately adjacent to the South American coastline. Region 3.4 has fallen to +1.76c on tropical tidbits, due to a recent weakening of WWB's, and the first positive daily SOI value in quite awhile. However, I expect renewed WWB bursts over the coming 1-2 months, promoting a maintenance of +2.0c or greater weekly anomalies. With that being said, I see no reason to abandon my original call from a few months ago for the peak trimonthly ONI value of +1.7c to +1.95. I still do not believe this event has the classic precursor pattern for a super Nino trimonthly classification of +2.0c or greater, akin to years such as 82/83, 97-98. There are already potential indications of a "cap" on the peak magnitude of this +ENSO event.

 

Subsurface trends. Note the progression of cooling in regions 1+2, and orientation of warmest anomalies from the central part of region 3.4 eastward through region 3. I generally expect a maintenance of this paradigm with possible gradual shifts wwd in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

SST's around Australia are undergoing a warming trend, which indicates to me that there is a limit on the magnitude of WWB's, and a peak near 97-98 intensity is highly unlikely.

 

With respect to the NPAC, there has been a cooling of waters recently. As I've opined in prior posts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant decrease in the coverage / magnitude of positive SSTA, particularly in mid/late autumn as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward. While the sample size is not great, historical precedent suggests that achieving a -EPO in the means will be quite difficult, unless a pattern akin to 2002-03 develops, which was a weaker El Nino event. There is time to monitor this. I'm not necessarily as concerned with the progression of NPAC SSTA, as their eventual fate will be predicated upon the ENSO forcing and tropical Pacific tendencies.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm fairly confident at this juncture that region 1+2 warming is nearing or has already reached completion, namely, further ENSO warming will be restricted to regions 4, 3.4 and 3. This is apparent through an examination of subsurface anomaly trends over the past month; subsurface areas to the east of 100W longitude to 80W are now close to normal w/ pockets of cooler than normal developing immediately adjacent to the South American coastline. Region 3.4 has fallen to +1.76c on tropical tidbits, due to a recent weakening of WWB's, and the first positive daily SOI value in quite awhile. However, I expect renewed WWB bursts over the coming 1-2 months, promoting a maintenance of +2.0c or greater weekly anomalies. With that being said, I see no reason to abandon my original call from a few months ago for the peak trimonthly ONI value of +1.7c to +1.95. I still do not believe this event has the classic precursor pattern for a super Nino trimonthly classification of +2.0c or greater, akin to years such as 82/83, 97-98. There are already potential indications of a "cap" on the peak magnitude of this +ENSO event.

 

Subsurface trends. Note the progression of cooling in regions 1+2, and orientation of warmest anomalies from the central part of region 3.4 eastward through region 3. I generally expect a maintenance of this paradigm with possible gradual shifts wwd in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

SST's around Australia are undergoing a warming trend, which indicates to me that there is a limit on the magnitude of WWB's, and a peak near 97-98 intensity is highly unlikely.

 

With respect to the NPAC, there has been a cooling of waters recently. As I've opined in prior posts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant decrease in the coverage / magnitude of positive SSTA, particularly in mid/late autumn as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward. While the sample size is not great, historical precedent suggests that achieving a -EPO in the means will be quite difficult, unless a pattern akin to 2002-03 develops, which was a weaker El Nino event. There is time to monitor this. I'm not necessarily as concerned with the progression of NPAC SSTA, as their eventual fate will be predicated upon the ENSO forcing and tropical Pacific tendencies.

 

 

Chuck cited that.

 

I completely agree with your forecasted peak of the el Nino.

I also agree that the EPO will slacken, but I'm not sure it completely fades away.....or at least I hope not.

Should that take place, this may render 1958 an even stronger analog because that season was NAO driven.

 

I had been expecting a +NAO/AO and a -EPO, but and open to amending those call, as my final call is still a ways off.

What do you feel the ramifications of +EPO would be considering the balance of the anticipated atmospheric canvass across the N. hemisphere?

I think that makes the Atlantic crucial.

[snowman19]

Chuck cited that.

I completely agree with your forecasted peak of the el Nino.

I also agree that the EPO will slacken, but I'm not sure it completely fades away.....or at least I hope not.

Should that take place, this may render 1958 an even stronger analog because that season was NAO driven.

I had been expecting a +NAO/AO and a -EPO, but and open to amending those call, as my final call is still a ways off.

What do you feel the ramifications of +EPO would be considering the balance of the anticipated atmospheric canvass across the N. hemisphere?

I think that makes the Atlantic crucial.

If the EPO goes positive, the maritime PAC floodgates open and you absolutely positively need -NAO and -AO or you are in real big trouble, and they would need to be strongly negative at that or they will get stream rolled by the forcing coming from the west in the PAC

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the EPO goes positive, the maritime PAC floodgates open and you absolutely positively need -NAO and -AO or you are in real big trouble, and they would need to be strongly negative at that or they will get stream rolled by the forcing coming from the west in the PAC

Obviously I know what that entails in a generic sense.

 

But as pervasive as that particular domain is, it is not an independent variable.

Nothing is.

 

I was brainstorming  with regard how that may play out if it were to be superimposed over a +PDO/PNA/ and -AO/NAO layout.

 

I don't think that would be awful, and in fact, while it maybe less favorable below about NYC, or including, it would probably be better throughout a portion of NE.

Mid west points westward would be cooked in all likelihood.

[donsutherland1]

Region 3.4 August Value: +2.06°C (OISSTv2).

 

That would imply a value somewhere between +1.50°C and +1.70°C on the ERSSTv4 dataset. That value has not yet been released.

 

Assuming that range for ERSSTv4, the June-July-August tri-monthly average would come out to somewhere between +1.22°C-+1.32°C. Then, if one takes the average progression of past strong El Niño events (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98), one could expect a tri-monthly peak of around +2.2°C +/- 0.1°C with either the October-December or November-January tri-monthly periods seeing the peak (probably the earlier one).That's lower than the latest CFSv2 forecast.

[PB GFI]

We should " ease " and not " erase " this warmth . The  guidance overall is seeing the ridge on the west shores of Hudson Bay .

The EPO region should cool , but remember you are coming off some plus 4c and plus 5c anomalies and sitting here in the 1st week in Sept that water is sitting at plus 3c in and around that region . 

[PB GFI]

The EPO has been a more important determinant during an El Nino for whether NYC

finishes with above normal snowfall. While it's a small sample size, the deal breaker

for above normal snowfall between 57-58 and 65-66 was the EPO. Both those

strong El Nino winters  featured a -AO pattern but 57-58 had  a strong -EPO

interval in November leading to the early December snow. The EPO dropped 

negative again in February with a stronger negative in March which saw

the heavy snow pattern. The near record 65-66 -AO couldn't produce

above normal snow with a strong +EPO pattern.

 

2002-2003 and 2009-2010 had negative EPO intervals with above normal seasonal

snowfall in NYC. The PD2 event was during a -EPO/+AO month.

 

The ECMWF and several other models spread the warmer waters westward from

3.4 to 4 during the winter. This westward move shifts the primary forcing closer

to Nino 4. That would allow the Aleutian low to set up far enough southwest 

to maintain a negative or neutral EPO for the winter into March. So I think 

the key will be getting this SST and forcing shift far enough west to maintain

a strong ridge in NW Canada.

 

I will probably wait until I see how the Euro plays it along with the other similar models

when they update in November to I have better idea of where the Aleutian low

and best Nino forcing sets up. 

 

Upon my initial viewing of this , you look at the EPO region and say hmmmm it did cool , but  look at where it did WARM , South of the Aleutians, it is right where the Euro ensembles want to stick the deepest NEG .

 

So as we warm the 3.4 and 4 region into the late fall , you may continue to pull that warmer water west and that will pull the ridge west of HB creating a pos PNA  and not east of HB  like the CFS wants to stick it . 

 

Lets see if that continues .  I you warm that region, then the EURO seasonal will be right . 

[UnionWeatherWx]

Latest SST anomaly change:

 

 

Cooling in the EPO region the past 7 days. Warming off the coast of Northern California into Southwestern Canada.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Latest SST Anomaly change 

 

 

 

 

 Cooling in the EPO region. Warming off the coast of Northern California into Southwestern Canada. I've been watching the Central Pacific for a couple of weeks now. Major cooling has been going down there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Opps. My mistake...didn't have the data in front of me.

1958 did have a negative EPO.

The EPO is def. most important, agreed.

I do not believe this season will avg. +EPO though.

Remember....forcing should be futher west than the terrible nino seasons.

Region 1.2 should cool.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Opps. My mistake...didn't have the data in front of me.

1958 did have a negative EPO.

The EPO is def. most important, agreed.

I do not believe this season will avg. +EPO though.

Remember....forcing should be futher west than the terrible nino seasons.

Region 1.2 should cool.

Great post. Imo, the EPO is most important in El Nino's. Along with the PDO.

[PB GFI]

Ripped from NE.

Looks like the Euro seasonal . 

[griteater]

The EPO has been a more important determinant during an El Nino for whether NYC

finishes with above normal snowfall. While it's a small sample size, the deal breaker

for above normal snowfall between 57-58 and 65-66 was the EPO. Both those

strong El Nino winters  featured a -AO pattern but 57-58 had  a strong -EPO

interval in November leading to the early December snow. The EPO dropped 

negative again in February with a stronger negative in March which saw

the heavy snow pattern. The near record 65-66 -AO couldn't produce

above normal snow with a strong +EPO pattern.

 

bluewave - good points regarding the bouts of -EPO during 57-58.  Regarding 65-66, the DC area had above normal snow that winter...so, it looks like it was more of a specific storm track issue as opposed to the temperature pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bluewave.......just saw your post.

Exactly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1966 was decent here

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ripped from NE.

Looks like the Euro seasonal .

Looks like a bit of Pamela Anderson action....