snowman19 Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Still think we could torch if we get a strong nino and +NAOThe winter of '97-'98 had -NAO and -AO, yet we still had a torch and snowless winter because of the very strong Nino. It overwhelmed the Atlantic and arctic side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 That map is showing Greenland below normal, wouldn't Greenland be above normal with -NAO? Typically. Difficult to say without a 500mb map, but sometimes when the blocking is centered over Alaska w/ a strong -EPO, heights can be lower near and particularly east of Greenland. You could have a situation in which heights are higher than normal across the Arctic, Alaska, northern Canada, and lower further east, though it's not as common. Another indication that the pattern represented seems to be -NAO is the core of the cold signaled in the SE US. Usually strong -AO/-NAO couplets focus the core of the cold to our south, much like 2009-10, or even 2010-11 to an extent. A strongly +NAO regime would feature more resistance w/ warming in the SE US like we saw over the past couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Well that's obviously already way off in the southern plains and the northeast US with record rainfall in TX/OK and barely anything in the northeast. What are you talking about? The forecast is for June/July/August and December/January/February...none of it has happened yet. Can you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 2.0c in region 3.4 seems to be the cut-off in terms of super Nino / strong Nino as far as impacts to the resultant USA winter weather pattern. There was a significant difference between the Nino's of 1957-58 and 1965-66 which peaked at 1.8c and 1.9c respectively, and years like 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, which all peaked at 2.0c or greater in 3.4. It seems that once we eclipse 2.0c in 3.4, the Nino overwhelms the mid latitude pattern, and high latitude blocking doesn't have as much of an impact. The NAO/AO were actually on the negative side for 97-98, but the STJ was so incredibly powerful that it torched the boundary layer. I don't think it's just that the STJ torches the boundary layer. All of the strong Ninos we've seen, all of which have been east-based, feature a very unfavorable Pacific pattern with a strong +EPO...a huge vortex over AK negates a weak -NAO/-AO...it would be different if we had a strong, west-based El Nino...you can't use 97-98 and 82-83 as examples because they were east based which leads to this unfavorable PAC pattern: Also, 97-98 didn't have that much blocking...the AO and NAO might have leaned slightly negative but were basically neutral..again the PAC pattern created by an East-based Nino ruled the temperature regime: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I don't think it's just that the STJ torches the boundary layer. All of the strong Ninos we've seen, all of which have been east-based, feature a very unfavorable Pacific pattern with a strong +EPO...a huge vortex over AK negates a weak -NAO/-AO...it would be different if we had a strong, west-based El Nino...you can't use 97-98 and 82-83 as examples because they were east based which leads to this unfavorable PAC pattern: strongninopac.png Also, 97-98 didn't have that much blocking...the AO and NAO might have leaned slightly negative but were basically neutral..again the PAC pattern created by an East-based Nino ruled the temperature regime: winter98.png Yes, it's not only the result of the STJ. I agree on the other points in your post. Super Nino's by nature tend to be east based, that is, Nino's with maximum 3.4 readings of 2.0c or greater. The strong, west based Nino's have tended to peak below 2.0c, at least since 1950. I'm definitely of the opinion that west vs east based is critically important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Obviously, this is very speculative since it's so far out in time. But the CFS goes full back-loaded on February after the El Nino peaks. But we have plenty of time to see how the pattern actually evolves as these long range maps can be fun to look at. A.png How nice would that be to build that kind of bridge across the top . Can't wait until that's a 5 day mean 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Dec. 1972... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 It has the blocking displaced further west than Feb 83 and colder temperature departures here. But that long range model guess pattern has a great look to it if it were to verify that way. That's a really nice pattern with a -EPO block bleeding into the Beaufort Sea north of AK. Definitely a cold regime especially for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 That's a really nice pattern with a -EPO block bleeding into the Beaufort Sea north of AK. Definitely a cold regime especially for the Southeast. Not sure why we're talking about that in May, but I guess there's no harm in it. I don't even think about that stuff until there's a noticeable loss in daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Not sure why we're talking about that in May, but I guess there's no harm in it. I don't even think about that stuff until there's a noticeable loss in daylight.October/November is the time to really seriously consider what may happen for the winter. It will all depend on what the Nino is doing at that point. What you don't want is an east-based Nino being anything more than weak at that point. As was already discussed, east based Ninos, anything more than weak are bad, strong ones are the kiss of death for winter unless west-based. Even moderate east-based ones are bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Yes, it's not only the result of the STJ. I agree on the other points in your post. Super Nino's by nature tend to be east based, that is, Nino's with maximum 3.4 readings of 2.0c or greater. The strong, west based Nino's have tended to peak below 2.0c, at least since 1950. I'm definitely of the opinion that west vs east based is critically important.If you look at where the the heart of the warm SSTs are in east-based Ninos, it's easy to see why they suck with where the resulting convection and latent heat release is, affecting the long wave patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 We had strong North Atlantic block for Feb 11th, 1983 KU. That kept the storm track south and east the area. This is how you combat a very strong,east-based El Nino: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Great discussion in here and I thank you all for sharing your collective knowledge. The '83 blizzard was the storm that got me into weather, in particular, winter weather. I was living in Millington, NJ in Morris county and i swear we got over 2 feet with that one, but I was only 9 at the time. My poor dad spent most of that night stuck in traffic trying to get home from what should have been a 30 minute commute. Ninos can be feast or famine. Since living down here for last 20 years, I'm pulling for a moderate west-based nino help our chances down here on the outer-outer coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 IRI updated on twitter but not the main site yet. It looks like the current May forecast peak is 1.7 in the fall before dropping into the winter. Below is a comparison to other IRI May forecasts and verifications. So far this would be the strongest May forecast mean of all the dynamical models during the 2000's so far.The public site doesn't have a record of forecasts made before 2002 so the sample size is small. IRI multimodel forecast in May and verification May...2015.....+1.7..............................? May...2014.....+0.9....verification.... +0.7 May...2009.....+1.0... verification....+1.6 May...2006.....+0.4....verification.....+1.0 May...2002.....+0.8....verification.....+1.3 CFihm2yVEAAsLeu.png-large.png Well, +1.7C is a solid strong event and the stats look like the May IRI forecasts end up verifying too low since 2002. We shall see, right now this El Niño is east-based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'd highly advise against using older analogs for direct comparison. We would need some pretty crafty positioning of features to do good in a east-based el nino in 2015/2016 ontop of whatever climate stuff happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 IRI updated on twitter but not the main site yet. It looks like the current May forecast peak is 1.7 in the fall before dropping into the winter. Below is a comparison to other IRI May forecasts and verifications. So far this would be the strongest May forecast mean of all the dynamical models during the 2000's so far.The public site doesn't have a record of forecasts made before 2002 so the sample size is small. IRI multimodel forecast in May and verification May...2015.....+1.7..............................? May...2014.....+0.9....verification.... +0.7 May...2009.....+1.0... verification....+1.6 May...2006.....+0.4....verification.....+1.0 May...2002.....+0.8....verification.....+1.3 CFihm2yVEAAsLeu.png-large.png That's for the dynamical model average. Looks like the statistical model average peaks around 1.2-1.3c. So the average of all models would still probably be about 1.4-1.5c, a high end mod / low end strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'd highly advise against using older analogs for direct comparison. We would need some pretty crafty positioning of features to do good in a east-based el nino in 2015/2016 ontop of whatever climate stuff happens this year. What's going to happen this year climate wise? Is there a significant event coming that we don't know about? This past February yielded 1st-2nd coldest month on record for much of the Northeast. Believe it or not, extreme events on the cold/snowy side can still occur even in our day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 What's going to happen this year climate wise? Is there a significant event coming that we don't know about? This past February yielded 1st-2nd coldest month on record for much of the Northeast. Believe it or not, extreme events on the cold/snowy side can still occur even in our day and age. 2013/2014/2015 living proof. The likely-hood that this summer will be strongly above average is a signal that the synoptic configurations have changed. We may be able to get 2014/2015 winter again but it would be a case of following a different path to the same result. 2015 will be the warmest year so you have to account for that too. I just don't think anyone should be forecasting winter until September, for their own good especially. Nobody wants to eat crow. You should also take into account the law of averages and statistics. The system will inevitable shift to warm again locally during DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'd highly advise against using older analogs for direct comparison. We would need some pretty crafty positioning of features to do good in a east-based el nino in 2015/2016 ontop of whatever climate stuff happens this year.I'll wait until October before I make a judgement, since a lot can possibly change between now and then, but if we have a high end moderate or strong east-based El Niño at that point, it will be a real bad sign imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 2013/2014/2015 living proof. The likely-hood that this summer will be strongly above average is a signal that the synoptic configurations have changed. We may be able to get 2014/2015 winter again but it would be a case of following a different path to the same result. 2015 will be the warmest year so you have to account for that too. I just don't think anyone should be forecasting winter until September, for their own good especially. Nobody wants to eat crow. You should also take into account the law of averages and statistics. The system will inevitable shift to warm again locally during DJF. Law of averages ? How about we just go off gut feeling ? Or maybe we should flip a collective coin and use that as a consensus. We don't use law of averages. There are physical drivers that will drive the winter in the CONUS . If the El nino migrates west to a weaker state like forecast If the same SSTs anomalies show up in the N PAC like most of the the forecast models say , then you may see the same mean ridge develop in the EPO region and regardless if the world is a blaze that would force the cold air off the Asian continent and slide south through the lakes. It's only May and no one is calling for anything but we use drivers not law of averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Just out of curiosity, in all of recorded weather history, how many strong east-based El Ninos, peaking strong (above +1.5C) in fall, have moved from east-based to being west-based during the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 You need to get lucky with a east based 1+2 El Ninos like we did in 1983 since the Aleutian low gets pulled closer to the West Coast and the corresponding ridge position ends up further east right over our area with warmer temperatures. 12.gif An El Nino focused closer to 3 has the features backed a few degrees west. 3.gif The west based event centered near 4 allows more room for better East Coast trough development and colder temperatures. 4.gif Tom and I were not making a winter call. We just went after the comment " old analogs don't apply because of what's going on " . Whatever is going on today went on yesterday. We ( I ) took exception with slanting a forecast based on an alarmist view and how the law of averages must be taken into account. The JMA is Leaning towards 3.4 w the PAC in the EPO region looking the same as the last 2. However it is smart to see how this progresses but if one buys the turn up towards 1.8 for June July Aug I am not sure why the same pp would ignore the turn down toward s 1 and the forecast of a migration west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 This ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 We had strong North Atlantic block for Feb 11th, 1983 KU. That kept the storm track south and east the area. This is how you combat a very strong,east-based El Nino: the ao dipped to -3.410 on 2/6/1983...lowest point of the winter...there was a big block in January 1966 when there was a big east coast storm...March 58 had a big block in place...2010 had blocking galore...1997-98 had a huge block in early January but after a cold start to January it turned mild...the neg ao was no help in 1997-98... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Tom and I were not making a winter call. We just went after the comment " old analogs don't apply because of what's going on " . Whatever is going on today went on yesterday. We ( I ) took exception with slanting a forecast based on an alarmist view and how the law of averages must be taken into account. The JMA is Leaning towards 3.4 w the PAC in the EPO region looking the same as the last 2. However it is smart to see how this progresses but if one buys the turn up towards 1.8 for June July Aug I am not sure why the same pp would ignore the turn down toward s 1 and the forecast of a migration west. I don't buy the global warming hoax/bs for one second myself. I'm just curious as to what strong El Ninos in the past, if any at all, started out east-based, peaked solidly strong in the fall, then moved to being west-based during the winter itself. Overall model consensus is that this thing peaks sometime in October. Right now it's clearly east-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Just read an interview the Washington Post had with Dr. Paul Roundy yesterday, he is saying there is a 60% chance this Nino gets stronger than the '97-'98 Nino and he said this year is already ahead of this time in '97 with Nino region subsurface temps and ssts, wwb's, and olr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I would like to see how the actual Nino 3.4 SST's verify vs the IRI mean projection going through the summer before trying to extrapolate a fall or winter number. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Just read an interview the Washington Post had with Dr. Paul Roundy yesterday, he is saying there is a 60% chance this Nino gets stronger than the '97-'98 Nino and he said this year is already ahead of this time in '97 with Nino region subsurface temps and ssts, wwb's, and olr http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/22/models-and-experts-lean-toward-strong-el-nino-forecast-for-the-fall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 23, 2015 Author Share Posted May 23, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/22/models-and-experts-lean-toward-strong-el-nino-forecast-for-the-fall/Thanks for the link, I forgot to post it. The fact that Dr. Roundy is saying that this Nino may peak stronger than '97-'98 did it just crazy. Region 1+2 is insanely warm right now and keeps getting warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Thanks for the link, I forgot to post it. The fact that Dr. Roundy is saying that this Nino may peak stronger than '97-'98 did it just crazy. Region 1+2 is insanely warm right now and keeps getting warmer The missing heat reveals itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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