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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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How accurate is tropical tidbits? It had it up to +2.2C less than 24 hours ago

One should be cautious about drawing major conclusions from it. For example, if one looks at its graph for ENSO Region 3.4, it is implied that the 7/29 +/- 3 days period had a warmer anomaly than the 8/5 +/- 3 days period. In fact, NOAA reported that the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (OISSTv2) rose from 1.7°C to 1.9°C during that time.

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soi minimums ...todays was --15.42

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

188....02.84..........188....13.48

197...-09.84..........197...-31.46

204...-34.78..........204...-11.39

215...-15.82..........215...-37.87

233...-33.88..........233...-21.85

260...-26.63

278...-32.98

308...-56.59

331...-44.58

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

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No, it's not. It's available publicly here:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/monthly.html

 

 

Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well).

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Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well).

That's bad news for next summer that pattern would support RNA #blowtorch
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Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well).

Yup... in one of CPC's previous seasonal outlooks, they mentioned they're going with a Nina from summer onward. 

 

JAMSTEC's 2 year ENSO forecast, FWIW, is quite similar to what it had in August 2009. *cough* look at 2011 *cough*

 

fCciJwP.gif

UTIQgKw.gif

 

Again... FWIW.

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ENSO Weekly Figures:

R1+2: +2.0°C Increase of +0.3°C in the past week

R3.4: +2.2°C Increase of +0.1°C in the past week

The warmest in the weeklies region 3.4 got in the 1997-1998 El Niño was +2.8C. At this rate, with several months of warming still ahead, I wonder if we surpass that in the weeklies?
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Maybe last year? Ha, I didn't pull up any pictures but I'm pretty sure we got anomalies like that in the EPO region last year.

 

The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M.

IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP

to slip SE through the lakes . 

 

The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies  to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . 

 

We have been saying since June that we had  to wait until November to be confident of a winter time  - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to  5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 .

Getting closer . 

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The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M.

IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP

to slip SE through the lakes .

The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies to show up in the SE and right up along the coast .

We have been saying since June that we had to wait until November to be confident of a winter time - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to 5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 .

Getting closer .

It's all so exciting. I'm just as excited for the next La Niña as I am for this upcoming winter. I'm hoping we can keep the EPO right now but time will tell.

I have a question. Does a -EPO like we have now and a +PNA overrule a +NAO and +AO during a Strong El Niño?

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The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M.

IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP

to slip SE through the lakes . 

 

The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies  to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . 

 

We have been saying since June that we had  to wait until November to be confident of a winter time  - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to  5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 .

Getting closer . 

So have the latest EPO region readings warmed further or holding its own? I've heard that the +PDO has gotten stronger... just looking for good trends.

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It's all so exciting. I'm just as excited for the next La Niña as I am for this upcoming winter. I'm hoping we can keep the EPO right now but time will tell.

I have a question. Does a -EPO like we have now and a +PNA overrule a +NAO and +AO during a Strong El Niño?

 

Sitting here today , I am inclined to buy a pattern set up that includes a  STJ - EPO  + PNA - AO in J - M

 

As far as a - NAO I would want to get closer before I am on board there . 

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Sitting here today , I am inclined to buy a pattern set up that includes a  STJ - EPO  + PNA - AO in J - M

 

As far as a - NAO I would want to get closer before I am on board there . 

The aforementioned pattern setup would give us an above normal winter regardless; on paper that is. If we ever got the perfect setup with the -NAO, the skies the limit again on paper. 

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The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M.

IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP

to slip SE through the lakes . 

 

The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies  to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . 

 

We have been saying since June that we had  to wait until November to be confident of a winter time  - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to  5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 .

Getting closer . 

 

 

I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern.

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I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern.

Exactly, that's why it's important to see where we are at come November. 1997 didn't see the big change until around mid October. The PDO numbers so far aren't that far away from 1997 in fact. We just had the most positive PDO July since 1997
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I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern.

 

 

Chris look at where the Euro seasonal along with the other guidance deepens that NEG . 

 

Even the CFSV2 sees it but is just a little east . The warmest anomalies have backed up west .

 

 

This was never an east based event and a - EPO is on the way .  These were my 2 calls and the guidance has come to me . 

 

I guess I could wait until March , but that would not end being an impressive forecast . 

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Don, just looked it up, +2.2C reading in region 3.4 is the warmest ever on record for August.

It is. Nevertheless, the June-July-August tri-monthly average anomaly could still wind up 3rd, behind 1997-98 and 1987-88 using the ERSSTv4 dataset. Weekly figures are based on the OISSTv2 dataset. That should be a temporary situation, as the computer guidance still indicates that this event could rival the 1997-98 one (and perhaps surpass it in Region 3.4).

 

ENSO08312015.jpg

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