donsutherland1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 How accurate is tropical tidbits? It had it up to +2.2C less than 24 hours ago One should be cautious about drawing major conclusions from it. For example, if one looks at its graph for ENSO Region 3.4, it is implied that the 7/29 +/- 3 days period had a warmer anomaly than the 8/5 +/- 3 days period. In fact, NOAA reported that the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (OISSTv2) rose from 1.7°C to 1.9°C during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 It's useful for providing an idea of relative warming / cooling. The cooling is likely temporary regardless, as we've seen these perturbations warmer / cooler with an overall increase in SST's in a step-wise fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 soi minimums ...todays was --15.42 day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........204...-11.39 215...-15.82..........215...-37.87 233...-33.88..........233...-21.85 260...-26.63 278...-32.98 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Chris, is the SST CA model pay-walled? I'm not too familiar with this model's accuracy history, but I must agree, that's one of the best model forecasts I've seen for the ensuing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Great verification. That looks just like the Euro seasonal. For the most part the seasonal outlooks look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Chris, is the SST CA model pay-walled? I'm not too familiar with this model's accuracy history, but I must agree, that's one of the best model forecasts I've seen for the ensuing season. No, it's not. It's available publicly here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/monthly.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 No, it's not. It's available publicly here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/monthly.html Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well).That's bad news for next summer that pattern would support RNA #blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Thanks for the link. Interesting that it also depicts a transition to La Nina / -PDO by next summer, which I think is highly likely based upon historical evidence. Usually / most of the time, there is a rubber-band effect with -ENSO immediately following ++ENSO (thus the typical spike and fall of global temperatures as well). Yup... in one of CPC's previous seasonal outlooks, they mentioned they're going with a Nina from summer onward. JAMSTEC's 2 year ENSO forecast, FWIW, is quite similar to what it had in August 2009. *cough* look at 2011 *cough* Again... FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Late Dec 2010 and Jan 2011 was the most prolific 6 weeks of winter I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Late Dec 2010 and Jan 2011 was the most prolific 6 weeks of winter I've ever experienced. The winters 2009-2011 were epic winters overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 ENSO Weekly Figures: R1+2: +2.0°C Increase of +0.3°C in the past week R3.4: +2.2°C Increase of +0.1°C in the past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 ENSO Weekly Figures: R1+2: +2.0°C Increase of +0.3°C in the past week R3.4: +2.2°C Increase of +0.1°C in the past week The warmest in the weeklies region 3.4 got in the 1997-1998 El Niño was +2.8C. At this rate, with several months of warming still ahead, I wonder if we surpass that in the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 When was the last time we were this far above Normal in the EPO region heading into Sept ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The warmest in the weeklies region 3.4 got in the 1997-1998 El Niño was +2.8C. At this rate, with several months of warming still ahead, I wonder if we surpass that in the weeklies? It's certainly a possibility according to the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 When was the last time we were this far above Normal in the EPO region heading into Sept ? Maybe last year? Ha, I didn't pull up any pictures but I'm pretty sure we got anomalies like that in the EPO region last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Maybe last year? Ha, I didn't pull up any pictures but I'm pretty sure we got anomalies like that in the EPO region last year. The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M. IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP to slip SE through the lakes . The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . We have been saying since June that we had to wait until November to be confident of a winter time - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to 5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 . Getting closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M. IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP to slip SE through the lakes . The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . We have been saying since June that we had to wait until November to be confident of a winter time - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to 5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 . Getting closer . It's all so exciting. I'm just as excited for the next La Niña as I am for this upcoming winter. I'm hoping we can keep the EPO right now but time will tell. I have a question. Does a -EPO like we have now and a +PNA overrule a +NAO and +AO during a Strong El Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M. IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP to slip SE through the lakes . The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . We have been saying since June that we had to wait until November to be confident of a winter time - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to 5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 . Getting closer . So have the latest EPO region readings warmed further or holding its own? I've heard that the +PDO has gotten stronger... just looking for good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 It's all so exciting. I'm just as excited for the next La Niña as I am for this upcoming winter. I'm hoping we can keep the EPO right now but time will tell. I have a question. Does a -EPO like we have now and a +PNA overrule a +NAO and +AO during a Strong El Niño? Sitting here today , I am inclined to buy a pattern set up that includes a STJ - EPO + PNA - AO in J - M As far as a - NAO I would want to get closer before I am on board there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 the nao has been mostly negative since mid June...does it go negative next winter when it counts?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 It's certainly a possibility according to the guidance.Don, just looked it up, +2.2C reading in region 3.4 is the warmest ever on record for August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Sitting here today , I am inclined to buy a pattern set up that includes a STJ - EPO + PNA - AO in J - M As far as a - NAO I would want to get closer before I am on board there . The aforementioned pattern setup would give us an above normal winter regardless; on paper that is. If we ever got the perfect setup with the -NAO, the skies the limit again on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The further west you pull the warmest anomalies in the EPO region the further west the center of the NEG will show up S of the Aleutians set up come D-M. IF that happens , you will pull the ridge west , just west of Hudson Bay and as we get into Jan and FEB , it will allow HP to slip SE through the lakes . The guidance suggests the STJ will allow the wettest anomalies to show up in the SE and right up along the coast . We have been saying since June that we had to wait until November to be confident of a winter time - EPO but we are now into Sept and that plus 4 C to 5 C water has not cooled yet . So what was once 6 months away is now only 2 . Getting closer . I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 1982-83 el nino was at it's peak in the DJF tri monthly period...2010 peaked the same time...1997-98 was on its way down from the previous tri monthly peak...I'd take my chances with a 1982-83 scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern.Exactly, that's why it's important to see where we are at come November. 1997 didn't see the big change until around mid October. The PDO numbers so far aren't that far away from 1997 in fact. We just had the most positive PDO July since 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I wouldn't expect the water to cool yet, anyway. The October-November time frame is more important to monitor as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward, thus potentially impacting SSTA, depending upon the mid level pattern. Chris look at where the Euro seasonal along with the other guidance deepens that NEG . Even the CFSV2 sees it but is just a little east . The warmest anomalies have backed up west . This was never an east based event and a - EPO is on the way . These were my 2 calls and the guidance has come to me . I guess I could wait until March , but that would not end being an impressive forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Don, just looked it up, +2.2C reading in region 3.4 is the warmest ever on record for August. It is. Nevertheless, the June-July-August tri-monthly average anomaly could still wind up 3rd, behind 1997-98 and 1987-88 using the ERSSTv4 dataset. Weekly figures are based on the OISSTv2 dataset. That should be a temporary situation, as the computer guidance still indicates that this event could rival the 1997-98 one (and perhaps surpass it in Region 3.4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 This is the first time. The most recent month for comparison is July. Chart.png 39/50....210/234 SSTC.gif Hence the " concern " that you are playing beat the clock to cool such a warm anomaly . Looks like 57/58 with a close 2nd . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Weekly SSTAs based on the August 23-29 Nino 1+2... 2.0C (+0.3C from last week) Nino 3...... 2.3C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 3.4.... 2.2C (+0.1C from last week) Nino 4...... 1.1C (unchanged from last week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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