Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

the 1982-83 winter had the strongest el nino on the mei scale...That winter was on the mild side but it did have one great storm...At this point in time I'd settle for a winter like that...

Yeh unc , that Friday blizzard in Feb 83 made you forget how bad that winter overall was

[mitchnick]

It would be idiotic of me or anyway to dismiss the possibility that a record breaking super NINO couldn't just overwhelm the patten , however I am looking for / not creating a way to hold onto the heat in the EPO region .

This NINO is turning into a great event , one that will be a measuring stick for many years . We just have to wait until O -N to really get a handle on the other players.

This one has already shown up to the game.

I don't believe there's one lr model that does not have the east coast way above normal precip, so it should be a noreaster fest. I doubt that consensus will be wrong...probably can guarantee that they will be correct. Hence, it comes down entirely to temps, and we can't answer that now and it will probably vary through the season with rain favored in December and snow chances increasing by mid-January. Mho

[AvantHiatus]

So what analog seems best to use for this nino? What are your thoughts?

There are no analogs, it is uncharted territory especially with the GOA warm pool involved.

[griteater]

Biggest difference between 82-83 & 97-98 showed during the heart of winter in Jan-Feb...

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

I don't believe there's one lr model that does not have the east coast way above normal precip, so it should be a noreaster fest. I doubt that consensus will be wrong...probably can guarantee that they will be correct. Hence, it comes down entirely to temps, and we can't answer that now and it will probably vary through the season with rain favored in December and snow chances increasing by mid-January. Mho

Yeh Mitch , the guidance paint a busy STJ into the SE . The question becomes what's it falling through in the MA and NE ?

Just too early to know.

[griteater]

Jan-Feb '83 vs. '98

 

 

[snowman19]

Jan-Feb '83 vs. '98

The Nino forcing was so overwhelming strong and dominite during the 1997-1998 winter, I think you could have had the strongest -AO and -NAO in history and they still would have been steamrolled

[PB GFI]

East based vs Central based could be the difference here.

I can't get caught up in 97/98 it's look overall is totally different .

I am not saying it's not possible but I don't see 97/98 playing out this winter IMO

[PB GFI]

The westward shift continues that the models have been indicating with Nino 1+2 down 

and 3.4 and 4 up . If the -0.4 ERRSTv2 reduction from the below OISST v2 holds, then

the official Nino 3.4 is at 1.7 now.

 

..................1+2..3....3.4...4

12AUG2015  2.0  2.2  2.0  0.9

19AUG2015  1.7  2.2  2.1  1.1

Unreal 1.2 region cooling. Down .9C in 2 weeks.

[Isotherm]

That was the first part of the forecast that has worked out so far. We'll all just have to wait and see if the second part

of enough warming in Nino 4 to shift the forcing west heading into the winter works out or not.

 

 

Although the likelihood of this is fairly low, there could still be renewed warming of regions 1+2. However, I think it's now apparent that we're not looking at a 97-98 east based Nino. Strongest warm anomalies should be region 3.4 based as we've discussed. I would like to see a bit more westward push over the next couple months.

[snowman19]

Although the likelihood of this is fairly low, there could still be renewed warming of regions 1+2. However, I think it's now apparent that we're not looking at a 97-98 east based Nino. Strongest warm anomalies should be region 3.4 based as we've discussed. I would like to see a bit more westward push over the next couple months.

Isotherm, it would appear the Eurosip is agreeing with your idea of loosing the -EPO, according to Coastalwx over in the New England forum, it's showing a strong GOA vortex/+EPO for Nov, Dec, Jan: "The euro-sip has a pretty nasty GOAK trough with lower heights into the Aleutians for the NDJ timeframe. That's probably because The early winter may be non-existent anyways. You really need the DJF look, and we aren't there yet".

[PB GFI]

The Euro D-F seasonal is as good as it gets here at 500. Since we are still in August I would still wait until O-N before I put a lot of stock in any one forecast . 

[UnionWeatherWx]

The Euro D-F seasonal is as good as it gets here at 500. Since we are still  in August I would still wait until O-N before I put a lot of stock in any one  forecast .

Pics?

[PB GFI]

Pics?

I can`t . That one would get me in trouble . If you can find it , it looks great . 

 

Bluewave may have it . 

[PB GFI]

I can't post the ECMWF, but it's similar to the NASA winter forecast which I can post.

 

NASA_ensemble_z200_season4.png

 

 

The Euro has a deep NEG south of the Aleutians , ( Deeper than last year ) . And the ridge is to the west of Hudson bay . 

Pretty look . 

[PB GFI]

The interesting thing about the Euro and NASA is how far the STJ gets forced south under ridge in California. Southern

California gets a dent put in the drought, but those two models don't share the wealth for Northern California into the

Pacific Northwest. It would be a third year in a row for the famous ridiculously resilient ridge.

 

That is a lot of heat to erase over the next 3 months , possible ? Sure , but the models try and pull it west . 

[snowman19]

SSTS around Austrailia are rapidly cooling. Very dramatic changes going on. We are quickly going into a strong +IOD. This setup is prime for even more WWBs. See: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/635970424254296064

[uncle W]

wettest November to March period during el nino years...

31.18" in 1972-73

29.91" in 1977-78

28.34" in 2009-10

25.01" in 1997-98

24.76" in 1986-87

23.68" in 1982-83

least wettest...

10.90" in 1958-59

11.71" in 1965-66

12.20" in 1976-77

13.85" in 1991-92

15.38" in 1994-95

[Sundog]

I just want to say that this has been a great discussion in here. Thanks for all the good info.

[donsutherland1]

The El Nino this year is already different from anything that we have seen before.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster’s-view-extreme-el-niño-eastern-pacific

 

EasternCentral_timeseries_610.png

Thanks for sharing this very nice blog discussion.

 

That this ENSO event is unique in some ways is another strong argument for one's not to rush to judgment concerning the upcoming winter e.g., don't write it off, just yet, even as a warm option still remains in the mix. The CFSv2 has an ugly resurgence of Region 1+2 anomalies, though historically, the secondary peak has wound up lower than the summer one in the limited number of strong-super El Niño cases.

 

Very cautiously, based on some past ENSO events with a warm August, one might be able to argue for a warm autumn on the East and West Coasts and possibly cool anomalies in the center of the country. Autumn 2002 might provide some insight into the distribution of anomalies, though that was a weaker ENSO event than the ongoing one and Region 1+2 had cool anomalies. Considering these differences, it's plausible that the Northern Plains might have a better chance of winding up on the warmer side of normal (unlike fall 2002). The bigger question will concern whether there begins to be some evidence of increasing blocking activity, which could be crucial for the winter outcome.

[donsutherland1]

Tri-monthly comparison of the 2015-16 El Niño event with past strong El Niño events (Peak tri-monthly ONI of +1.5°C or above) and paths the current event could take based on those events:

 

 

The mean tri-monthly ONI figures from the latter chart are as follows:

 

MJJ: +1.0°C (actual)

JJA: +1.3°C

JAS: +1.6°C

ASO: +1.8°C

SON: +2.0°C

OND: +2.2°C

NDJ: +2.2°C

DJF: +2.1°C

JFM: +1.8°C

 

It should be noted that the guidance calls for an earlier peak. The mean from the above cases is later on account of the timing of the 1991-92 ENSO event, which peaked during the DJF period. Moreover, caution about the individual cases is in order, as the evolution of ENSO events is non-linear.

[snowman19]

Thanks for sharing this very nice blog discussion.

That this ENSO event is unique in some ways is another strong argument for one's not to rush to judgment concerning the upcoming winter e.g., don't write it off, just yet, even as a warm option still remains in the mix. The CFSv2 has an ugly resurgence of Region 1+2 anomalies, though historically, the secondary peak has wound up lower than the summer one in the limited number of strong-super El Niño cases.

Very cautiously, based on some past ENSO events with a warm August, one might be able to argue for a warm autumn on the East and West Coasts and possibly cool anomalies in the center of the country. Autumn 2002 might provide some insight into the distribution of anomalies, though that was a weaker ENSO event than the ongoing one and Region 1+2 had cool anomalies. Considering these differences, it's plausible that the Northern Plains might have a better chance of winding up on the warmer side of normal (unlike fall 2002). The bigger question will concern whether there begins to be some evidence of increasing blocking activity, which could be crucial for the winter outcome.

Don, the cfsv2 is probably seeing the oceanic kelvin wave surfacing in 1+2 around mid September and that's why it's warming back up. Whether that happens remains to be seen. That period needs to be watched very closely. The normal cold tongue response that usually surfaces off the coast of south america is a no show this year, a testament to how strong this Nino is

[donsutherland1]

Don, the cfsv2 is probably seeing the oceanic kelvin wave surfacing in 1+2 around mid September and that's why it's warming back up. Whether that happens remains to be seen. That period needs to be watched very closely. The normal cold tongue response that usually surfaces off the coast of south america is a no show this year, a testament to how strong this Nino is

That's very possible. A secondary peak is fairly common for strong El Niño events. A secondary peak that exceeds the primary one (+3.3°C on the weekly data earlier this year) is less common. The sample size is small, so there is a lot of uncertainty. The CFSv2 does not yet show the less common outcome, but some of its ensemble members do. Region 1+2 is also far more challenging to predict from this far out. By October, there should be a better idea.

[snowman19]

That's very possible. A secondary peak is fairly common for strong El Niño events. A secondary peak that exceeds the primary one (+3.3°C on the weekly data earlier this year) is less common. The sample size is small, so there is a lot of uncertainty. The CFSv2 does not yet show the less common outcome, but some of its ensemble members do. Region 1+2 is also far more challenging to predict from this far out. By October, there should be a better idea.

Yea Don we will have to wait another couple months. But renewed region 1+2 warming is certainly possible given the oceanic kelvin wave movement, continued wwbs and strong -SOI. We are in the normal climatological drop period, then you typically see a warmup once the 1+2 drop period ends, even in non Nino years

[snowman19]

Don, check this out, look at the very strong warming developing at 130W with the kelvin wave continuing to push east, the heat content is really starting to soar: https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/636606437469253632

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, the PDO rose for the 2nd consecutive month. Recent PDO values:

 

May: +1.20

June: +1.54

July: +1.84

 

The July PDO figure indicates that it is now very likely that the December-February period will feature a PDO+ winter. Some statistics based on the July 1900-2014 PDO:

 

 

Also, when the July PDO has averaged +1.50 or above, 43% of months in the succeeding December-February timeframe were +1.00 or above.

[snowman19]

FWIW, the PDO rose for the 2nd consecutive month. Recent PDO values:

May: +1.20

June: +1.54

July: +1.84

The July PDO figure indicates that it is now very likely that the December-February period will feature a PDO+ winter. Some statistics based on the July 1900-2014 PDO:

Also, when the July PDO has averaged +1.50 or above, 43% of months in the succeeding December-February timeframe were +1.00 or above.

The July PDO number was the most positive since July 1997 funny enough: https://twitter.com/wxmanvic/status/636588292209819648

[Isotherm]

Latest region 3.4 value has decreased to +1.95c as of last night; +1.99c this morning.

 

 

[snowman19]

Latest region 3.4 value has decreased to +1.95c as of last night; +1.99c this morning.

How accurate is tropical tidbits? It had it up to +2.2C less than 24 hours ago

[ClicheVortex2014]

How accurate is tropical tidbits? It had it up to +2.2C less than 24 hours ago

It's certainly not perfect and not to be taken as gospel. The official readings over the past 2 weeks have been ~0.2C warmer than Tropicaltidbits had. It's still good for getting an idea of what you could expect... especially since it's updated every 6 hours.