Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[donsutherland1]

Just so it's clear, the record-breaking ENSO scenarios (Case 4) do not represent my current line of thinking. They offer illustrations of what might happen if such an event occurs. My guess remains a tri-monthly peak ONI of +2.1°C (ERSSTv4).

[snowman19]

This will be nowhere near the el nino of 97-98

Great analysis

[PB GFI]

It would be nice to evolve into this . The CFS at least for today joins the other Global models with the warm start  in DEC  look evolving into a colder back end which looks good to me .

[PB GFI]

Chris , I see a difference  around Australia  . Warmer water promoting a neg SOI helps with forcing troughs on the EC ? 

I also like how the rest of the PAC is warmer in the bigger years , the current SST`S will cool some , but I do not think get totally erased . 

 

So the warmer PAC analog does not look bad this far out . 

 

 

[uncle W]

the last four Decembers have been mild averaging over 40.0 three of the four...I'd like to see a cold December for a change...2009 had a relatively cold December...

the cold December nino's...

[snowman19]

Just so it's clear, the record-breaking ENSO scenarios (Case 4) do not represent my current line of thinking. They offer illustrations of what might happen if such an event occurs. My guess remains a tri-monthly peak ONI of +2.1°C (ERSSTv4).

Looking at the latest imagery, it would appear Nino 3.4 is up to +2.1C as the warming continues, the next 3 months are going to be real interesting

[Isotherm]

the last four Decembers have been mild averaging over 40.0 three of the four...I'd like to see a cold December for a change...2009 had a relatively cold December...

the cold December nino's...

 

 

Strongly agree. If I had my way, I'd invert last winter's temperature anomaly progression. I prefer something like 2010-11 with a front-middle loaded colder / snowier than normal period, and moderation occurring in February/March.

 

Notice that the previous four Decembers featured a +NAO. December 2009 and 2010 were both -NAO months. Difficult to achieve colder than normal on the East Coast early in the winter without help from the Atlantic, generally.

[Isotherm]

Ahhh , I see I am being summoned , as I dry myself off from being in the pool all day , let me first say Don S is spot on with the warm Dec look as both Chris and I have been saying how it is very common and I opined only a few pages back that you could " write off " Dec this year as I think Dec will be warm . So I agree with the warm Dec look . 

 

Now , how we do we overcome this potential bad news .  You will see that many POS ENSO  events turn into back loaded winters .

For example here is  56/57 below  .  Also  09/10 turned into a GREAT winter as  Don pointed out as VERY strong blocking saved the day . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have to disagree on writing off December, or writing off anything at this point. While the observational and statistical evidence is clearly in favor of a warmer than normal December given a strong El Nino base state, the sample size is not particularly robust, so I'm hesitant to utilize such strong language considering the advanced lead time. There are a number of factors that could potentially invert the usual temperature departure progression, but the most notable one is likely the downstream mid level atmospheric pattern, namely the state of the north Atlantic. Strong +ENSO Decembers are by and large positive NAO months; however, what if a 2009 type scenario occurs? One must ask the question: what about a strong el nino physically prevents the occurrence of a cold December? The climatological progression of ++ENSO is such that it's difficult to induce Arctic/Atlantic side blocking in the early winter, although, other factors could override this. 2009, while a robust El Nino, had the aid of an exceptionally weak solar cycle and negative QBO modality, and so the usual warm El Nino December did not transpire. Solar cycling is quite a bit different from previous ++ENSO analogs, so all factors are not necessarily the same. My point is not to say that we're going to see a cold December, just that one should be hesitant to rush to conclusions about writing any particular month off. For all we know, February could torch this winter, and there are certainly reasons why that is a viable option.

[Isotherm]

I'm not sure what PB GFI's thoughts are, but my guess is that it is more likely than not that the PDO+ will persist through the winter.

 

 

While I agree that more likely than not the +PDO will persist, I think it's important for people to realize that this summer's SSTA profile and PDO values do not necessarily hold significant predictive ability for the winter's PDO values.

 

For example, the PDO values in 1957 were +1.76,  +0.72,   +0.51,   +1.59, and +1.50 for June, July, August, September, and October respectively. November then featured a major drop to -0.32, and further to -0.55 in December. January/February rose to slightly positive. So the 1957-58 DJF PDO mean was only +0.11, just barely above neutral -- and this following a summer and early/mid autumn of strongly +PDO values. The change was largely due to the north Pacific pattern.

 

As for the EPO, as I noted in my last post, I don't like writing possibilities off at this lead time, so a -EPO is certainly possible. However, the available data suggests it will be much more difficult to achieve a -EPO in the means for DJF, due largely to the ENSO state and its corresponding effects on the mid latitude jet.

[forkyfork]

super

[SnoSki14]

Wow look at that Nino go.

[uncle W]

Godzilla move over...this is a Rodan nino...

[PB GFI]

I have to disagree on writing off December, or writing off anything at this point. While the observational and statistical evidence is clearly in favor of a warmer than normal December given a strong El Nino base state, the sample size is not particularly robust, so I'm hesitant to utilize such strong language considering the advanced lead time. There are a number of factors that could potentially invert the usual temperature departure progression, but the most notable one is likely the downstream mid level atmospheric pattern, namely the state of the north Atlantic. Strong +ENSO Decembers are by and large positive NAO months; however, what if a 2009 type scenario occurs? One must ask the question: what about a strong el nino physically prevents the occurrence of a cold December? The climatological progression of ++ENSO is such that it's difficult to induce Arctic/Atlantic side blocking in the early winter, although, other factors could override this. 2009, while a robust El Nino, had the aid of an exceptionally weak solar cycle and negative QBO modality, and so the usual warm El Nino December did not transpire. Solar cycling is quite a bit different from previous ++ENSO analogs, so all factors are not necessarily the same. My point is not to say that we're going to see a cold December, just that one should be hesitant to rush to conclusions about writing any particular month off. For all we know, February could torch this winter, and there are certainly reasons why that is a viable option.

Right or wrong the guidance along with a few analogs that i favor point me to point a warmer than normal opening . ( sample size not withstanding ).

I personally don't see a cold December with a NINO that will still be above 1.5 in most regions.

BTW this is not the first time I have been accused of using strong language here. ☺

I was on record early that this NINO would head west , I guess this means I am on record for a Above Normal December and if I am wrong , no one will mind. They are just some early thoughts.

[uncle W]

July had the second lowest AO on record...2009 has the first...If we want snow in December the AO better be pretty low...

[Isotherm]

Right or wrong the guidance along with a few analogs that i favor point me to point a warmer than normal opening . ( sample size not withstanding ).

I personally don't see a cold December with a NINO that will still be above 1.5 in most regions.

BTW this is not the first time I have been accused of using strong language here. ☺

I was on record early that this NINO would head west , I guess this means I am on record for a Above Normal December and if I am wrong , no one will mind. They are just some early thoughts.

 

 

 

I agree with the meteorological reasoning regarding the warmer December. My only disagreement is that - for me - I wouldn't utilize the phrase 'write off' so early in the game, given the sample size and potential overriding factors. However, I definitely agree that the probability of a warmer than normal December is much higher this winter.

[Rtd208]

What are you guys thinking in terms of storminess?? I have seen alot of talk that El Nino usually brings but not in all cases a very active fall and winter in terms of storms, whether we see alot of snow or not is another story. I know nor'easters are more prevalent during El Nino falls and winters, any thoughts? 

[PB GFI]

I agree with the meteorological reasoning regarding the warmer December. My only disagreement is that - for me - I wouldn't utilize the phrase 'write off' so early in the game, given the sample size and potential overriding factors. However, I definitely agree that the probability of a warmer than normal December is much higher this winter.

You're probably right , then again 57/58 is your analog and I am riding it . So Is you know who...

[Sundog]

I agree with the meteorological reasoning regarding the warmer December. My only disagreement is that - for me - I wouldn't utilize the phrase 'write off' so early in the game, given the sample size and potential overriding factors. However, I definitely agree that the probability of a warmer than normal December is much higher this winter.

We only really need one moderate event to call December a success, so I agree. Of course it depends on the pattern at the time, though. If come December we have a monster SE Ridge that's stubborn as hell then obviously December will probably be a dud.

[OSUmetstud]

SE ridge in a strong nino? Why?

[OSUmetstud]

AK vortex equals winter death for the ne. Canada and the northeast are flooded with pac air.

[ClicheVortex2014]

FWIW... 72-73 was a strong Nino, but December resembled more of a Nina. That year also saw a Nino 1+2 cooling in September but some rebound in late Fall. A 1+2 rebound has become more of a possibility in the past week or so... CFS has caught on to it. It's only one model so far though.

[snowman19]

super

I stand corrected, looks like region 3.4 is up to +2.2C now

[csnavywx]

Really wish folks would stop using 2009-2010 as an analog, even as an ENSO only analog. I think it's partially because of JB, but either way, it's a really bad analog to this event. The subsurface looks nothing like a CP/Modoki Nino... at all... at any time.

 

I suppose you could say "basin wide", but I question the utility or usefulness of that. Our sample size for strong Ninos is already small enough so subdividing it into yet another category seems counterproductive to any sort of skillful prediction.

[dmillz25]

Really wish folks would stop using 2009-2010 as an analog, even as an ENSO only analog. I think it's partially because of JB, but either way, it's a really bad analog to this event. The subsurface looks nothing like a CP/Modoki Nino... at all... at any time.

I suppose you could say "basin wide", but I question the utility or usefulness of that. Our sample size for strong Ninos is already small enough so subdividing it into yet another category seems counterproductive to any sort of skillful prediction.

So what analog seems best to use for this nino? What are your thoughts?

[donsutherland1]

While I agree that more likely than not the +PDO will persist, I think it's important for people to realize that this summer's SSTA profile and PDO values do not necessarily hold significant predictive ability for the winter's PDO values.

 

For example, the PDO values in 1957 were +1.76,  +0.72,   +0.51,   +1.59, and +1.50 for June, July, August, September, and October respectively. November then featured a major drop to -0.32, and further to -0.55 in December. January/February rose to slightly positive. So the 1957-58 DJF PDO mean was only +0.11, just barely above neutral -- and this following a summer and early/mid autumn of strongly +PDO values. The change was largely due to the north Pacific pattern.

 

As for the EPO, as I noted in my last post, I don't like writing possibilities off at this lead time, so a -EPO is certainly possible. However, the available data suggests it will be much more difficult to achieve a -EPO in the means for DJF, due largely to the ENSO state and its corresponding effects on the mid latitude jet.

I agree regarding the summer SSTAs and lack of predictability into the winter. That's why I stated that it was more likely than not rather than something stronger e.g., likely. 

[PB GFI]

Really wish folks would stop using 2009-2010 as an analog, even as an ENSO only analog. I think it's partially because of JB, but either way, it's a really bad analog to this event. The subsurface looks nothing like a CP/Modoki Nino... at all... at any time.

I suppose you could say "basin wide", but I question the utility or usefulness of that. Our sample size for strong Ninos is already small enough so subdividing it into yet another category seems counterproductive to any sort of skillful prediction.

57/58 72/73 are most widely used here. Some of us

have used basin wide with the main thinking that larger heat come the fall is found in the 3.4 and 4 regions .

I didn't like 97/98 because of that years east based fashion The main question many of us are asking is as the guidance want to stick a trough in the SE/showing no signs of a SE ridge , is there a way we hold onto that heat in the the PAC as to bend the jet off Asia to seed Canada just enough where you can combined a STJ with HP slipping through the lakes if we see PosPNA in the means . Or does a super NINO in the 3.4 region just totally overwhelm the pattern.

Many of believe we will not know that until O - N but some of the guidance is hesitant to erase that heat entirely and I think that and its implicatioms are the conjecture here

I agree the strong NINO sample size is small as 97/98 72/73 were killers. 57/58 was not . So are we on the edges or in between ?

[snowman19]

57/58 72/73 are most widely used here. Some of us

have used basin wide with the main thinking that larger heat come the fall is found in the 3.4 and 4 regions .

I didn't like 97/98 because of that years east based fashion The main question many of us are asking is as the guidance want to stick a trough in the SE/showing no signs of a SE ridge , is there a way we hold onto that heat in the the PAC as to bend the jet off Asia to seed Canada just enough where you can combined a STJ with HP slipping through the lakes if we see PosPNA in the means . Or does a super NINO in the 3.4 region just totally overwhelm the pattern.

Many of believe we will not know that until O - N but some of the guidance doesn't erase that heat entirely and I think that and its implicatioms are the conjecture here

I agree the strong NINO sample size is small as 97/98 72/73 were killers. 57/58 was not . So are we on the edges or in between ?

Yea PB, that would be my concern, does the super Nino forcing overwhelm? If it does, and the +EPO flood gates open, would a -AO and -NAO even "save" us? I just know I wouldn't want to try that

[griteater]

57/58 72/73 are most widely used here. Some of us

have used basin wide with the main thinking that larger heat come the fall is found in the 3.4 and 4 regions .

I didn't like 97/98 because of that years east based fashion The main question many of us are asking is as the guidance want to stick a trough in the SE/showing no signs of a SE ridge , is there a way we hold onto that heat in the the PAC as to bend the jet off Asia to seed Canada just enough where you can combined a STJ with HP slipping through the lakes if we see PosPNA in the means . Or does a super NINO in the 3.4 region just totally overwhelm the pattern.

Many of believe we will not know that until O - N but some of the guidance is hesitant to erase that heat entirely and I think that and its implicatioms are the conjecture here

I agree the strong NINO sample size is small as 97/98 72/73 were killers. 57/58 was not . So are we on the edges or in between ?

I'm not a fan of the 72-73 analog.  Strong nino, but during a -PDO regime...thus its Dec-Mar pattern produced a North Pacific ridge, and trough along the west coast of CA / US.  Same thing occurred in the north Pac in 65-66 (-PDO).  

 

Nino with entrenched +PDO regime this year strongly favors the presence of a low in the north Pac (mean pattern).

[PB GFI]

Yea PB, that would be my concern, does the super Nino forcing overwhelm? If it does, and the +EPO flood gates open, would a -AO and -NAO even "save" us? I just know I wouldn't want to try that

It would be idiotic of me or anyway to dismiss the possibility that a record breaking super NINO couldn't just overwhelm the patten , however I am looking for / not creating a way to hold onto the heat in the EPO region .

This NINO is turning into a great event , one that will be a measuring stick for many years . We just have to wait until O -N to really get a handle on the other players.

This one has already shown up to the game.

[uncle W]

the 1982-83 winter had the strongest el nino on the mei scale...That winter was on the mild side but it did have one great storm...At this point in time I'd settle for a winter like that...