Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[thunderbolt]

I don't know, that region is extremely volatile and difficult to predict. This time of year, there is always a climatological drop off for a period then it normally warms again. The difference this year, because of the super nino, the cold tongue that normally shows up is a no show[/quote how much of a a significant increase in regions 1/2 does it have to be to influence the atmosphere

[dmillz25]

Hear the IRI models are out for this month?

[HailMan06]

Hear the IRI models are out for this month?

Dynamical models peak at +2.5C around Oct/Nov and statistical models peak at +1.9C for NDJ.

[snowman19]

Dynamical models peak at +2.5C around Oct/Nov and statistical models peak at +1.9C for NDJ.

That dynamic model peak of +2.5C is for NDJ as well. The IRI model array keeps getting warmer with the peak every run since May

[Isotherm]

The latest IRI runs indicate a statistical region 3.4 peak of 1.9c, and a dynamical peak of 2.5c. Due to the fact that this will easily be the strongest El Nino since 1997-98, it's difficult to determine the predictive skill of these models since IRI forecasts only go back to 2002. With that being said, I would still favor the statistical guidance with a trimonthly mean at or below 2.0c for various reasons, including but not limited to the following: The super Nino's since 1950 -- 1972, 1982, and 1997, especially the latter two, featured the most anomalous warm anomalies in the eastern part of region 3 into regions 1+2. It's historically very difficult to achieve a super Nino with the greatest warmth centered in region 3.4, as is currently progged by most models for this event.

 

Composite of SSTA for December 1972/1982/1997. Notice the apparent region 3-1+2 centered warmth.

 

 

 

Contrast that to December 1965/1957 which featured more basin-wide events with anomalous warmth extending westward into region 3.4. These events reached maximum trimonthly values of 1.7-2.0c, the range that I have been opining over the past few months.

 

 

 

The potential issue is a small sample size, as there may have been super Nino's that were centrally based prior to 1950. However, given the available post-1950 data, the three super Nino's featured the strongest warmth in eastern region 3 and regions 1+2.

 

 

SOI wise, it appears we might achieve our first monthly value of -20 or lower for August, which would place this Nino in the list of other strong-super Nino's such as 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 1987. We'll have to monitor trends over the next month to see if we maintain the magnitude of this atmospheric response.

 

Additionally, SST's in the SW PAC continue to run warmer overall compared to 1997 at this time. This is indicative of potentially less subsidence near Australia and thus less frequent/persistently potent westerly wind bursts.

 

Going forward, regions 1+2 warmth relative to the other regions should offer a clue concerning the potential maximum intensity of this event. Generally speaking, those who are expecting a super trimonthly Nino should hope for renewed warming in 1+2.

[snowman19]

The latest IRI runs indicate a statistical region 3.4 peak of 1.9c, and a dynamical peak of 2.5c. Due to the fact that this will easily be the strongest El Nino since 1997-98, it's difficult to determine the predictive skill of these models since IRI forecasts only go back to 2002. With that being said, I would still favor the statistical guidance with a trimonthly mean at or below 2.0c for various reasons, including but not limited to the following: The super Nino's since 1950 -- 1972, 1982, and 1997, especially the latter two, featured the most anomalous warm anomalies in the eastern part of region 3 into regions 1+2. It's historically very difficult to achieve a super Nino with the greatest warmth centered in region 3.4, as is currently progged by most models for this event.

Composite of SSTA for December 1972/1982/1997. Notice the apparent region 3-1+2 centered warmth.

Contrast that to December 1965/1957 which featured more basin-wide events with anomalous warmth extending westward into region 3.4. These events reached maximum trimonthly values of 1.7-2.0c, the range that I have been opining over the past few months.

The potential issue is a small sample size, as there may have been super Nino's that were centrally based prior to 1950. However, given the available post-1950 data, the three super Nino's featured the strongest warmth in eastern region 3 and regions 1+2.

SOI wise, it appears we might achieve our first monthly value of -20 or lower for August, which would place this Nino in the list of other strong-super Nino's such as 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 1987. We'll have to monitor trends over the next month to see if we maintain the magnitude of this atmospheric response.

Additionally, SST's in the SW PAC continue to run warmer overall compared to 1997 at this time. This is indicative of potentially less subsidence near Australia and thus less frequent/persistently potent westerly wind bursts.

Going forward, regions 1+2 warmth relative to the other regions should offer a clue concerning the potential maximum intensity of this event. Generally speaking, those who are expecting a super trimonthly Nino should hope for renewed warming in 1+2.

Isotherm, good post as always but in order for 3.4 to peak trimonthly below +2.0C, it would need to start weakening, as in right now. Looking at the latest TAO anomalies it is continuing to warm and based on what I am seeing, it may very well be +2.1C on the next weekly update. The data is all pointing to further strengthening over the next several months. I hate to disagree with you but this Nino is destined for the history books in my opinion whether or not region 1+2 warms again after this normal climo drop period ends

[PB GFI]

Paul, did you see the new JMA for the fall? Hopefully it's correct about the Aleutian low setting up

far enough SW to maintain the -EPO ridge and warm pool. The late fall chart is showing the primary forcing shifting

west back into the Nino 4 region.

 

Y201508.D0900_gl0.png

 

Y201508.D0900 15-35-42-421.png

Chris I saw it last night , I keep seeing the warmest waters / Kelvin wave ( see Mike Ventrice ) shifting west . The guidance continues to see this warm in the 3.4 region for sure and hopefully in the 4 region as to pull that trough SW .

 

Take a look at the latest CFSV2 500MB  for JAN and FEB  . Look at how deep that neg is in the GOA . That should reflect a deeper trough in the east .  There is disconnect between it and it`s 2 M temps .( It is an error )  If you see that deep of a NEG , S of the Aleutians you will see a deeper trough into the SE and EC . 

 

 

[snowman19]

Here is a comparison of the Nino plume forecasts since May. As you can see each successive run since May has gotten stronger and stronger with the peak, the new runs are now showing an ONI of +2.5, the strongest ever, surpassing '97-'98. Also, the new ECMWF is showing an insane trimonthly for NDJ of +3.0C. Here is the link to the comparison graph: https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/634571323142877184

[donsutherland1]

Here is a comparison of the Nino plume forecasts since May. As you can see each successive run since May has gotten stronger and stronger with the peak, the new runs are now showing an ONI of +2.5, the strongest ever, surpassing '97-'98. Also, the new ECMWF is showing an insane trimonthly for NDJ of +3.0C. Here is the link to the comparison graph: https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/634571323142877184

It's still a little soon to be sure how strong this ENSO event will get. A record-breaking ENSO event remains on the table. Even if such a situation occurs, while there would be an increased probability of a warm winter due to extreme ENSO forcing, a cooler outcome still could not be ruled out depending on the other variables i.e. PDO, AO, etc.

 

At this point, I'm wondering whether my thinking of a +2.1°C trimonthly peak (ERSST v4) is a bit conservative. It's a compromise between the most recent statistical and dynamical guidance, but I'll wait to see how Region 3.4 warms over the next 4-8 weeks. During the week centered around August 13, 1997, the R3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C; for the week centered around August 12, 2015, it was also +2.0°C. In 1997, after 4 weeks, it had risen to +2.2°C and after 8 weeks it increased further to +2.6°C. Ultimately, the 1997-98 El Niño event saw a peak weekly R3.4 anomaly of +2.8°C on the week centered around November 26. For a record-breaking trimonthly figure, one would probably need to see R3.4's anomalies increase to near a record-breaking +3.0°C by the week centered around October 7.

 

Right now, we've seen Region 1+2 cool and additional cooling in the weeks ahead will be important. However, one won't know for sure until some time in October. During October 1997, that R1+2's warm anomalies started increasing again after they had cooled 1.1°C during a nearly 6-week period. Given the historical experience, I am reasonably confident that Region 1+2 will not warm beyond the +3.3°C weekly peak for the week centered around July 8, 2015, but even a +1.5°C to +2.5°C winter figure would increase the risk of a warmer outcome.

 

For now, at least IMO, a basin-wide, not Region 1+2 strong-super El Niño still appears to be the most likely outcome (my guess: around 60%). That gives opportunities for a colder outcome, especially if strong blocking develops. In contrast, a Region 1+2-centered ENSO event would largely preclude a cool outcome, as happened in 1997-98 despite some strong blocking. Right now, that seems to be a lower probability scenario, as per the guidance and historical experience. Hopefully, it can be ruled out by some time this fall.

 

PB GFI and Bluewave have had a lot of very solid discussions. Isotherm has also pointed out a difference between the super ENSO events and the current one (much warmer R1+2 anomalies) that bears watching. As such events are rare despite the two that occurred during the closing 25 years of the 20th century, there's a lot of uncertainty.

[Isotherm]

Isotherm, good post as always but in order for 3.4 to peak trimonthly below +2.0C, it would need to start weakening, as in right now. Looking at the latest TAO anomalies it is continuing to warm and based on what I am seeing, it may very well be +2.1C on the next weekly update. The data is all pointing to further strengthening over the next several months. I hate to disagree with you but this Nino is destined for the history books in my opinion whether or not region 1+2 warms again after this normal climo drop period ends

 

 

Snowman, thanks, and you could very well be correct with your prediction. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds either way.

 

One aspect to keep in mind regarding the weekly numbers is that the dataset utilized for the trimonthly calculation appears to run significantly cooler than the weekly dataset. This is the reason for the disparity between the July weekly values and the latest ONI trimonthly value, which was still only +1.0c despite the much warmer weeklies.

 

The following was posted in the main board ENSO thread concerning that difference.

 

So if a record breaking trimonthly-ONI El Nino occurs, we'd very likely need some weekly values near +3.0c or so.

 

 

My thinking is that the weekly values are based on OISST.v2....and yes, the tri-monthly ONI is based on ERSSTv4.  

 

OISSTv2 incorporates satellite data, whereas it looks like ERSST does not.  You can get more info about the data sets here - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

There must be something preventing NOAA from producing ERSSTv4 values on a weekly basis.  If they did that, the weekly, monthly, and tri-monthly values would be consistent.  As it stands, OISSTv2 is always warmer than ERSSTv4.  You can compare the two here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

[UnionWeatherWx]

A bit OT, but do any of you guys know a good website, where I can see the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Composite anomaly of the waters in the Pacific?

[snowman19]

Snowman, thanks, and you could very well be correct with your prediction. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds either way.

One aspect to keep in mind regarding the weekly numbers is that the dataset utilized for the trimonthly calculation appears to run significantly cooler than the weekly dataset. This is the reason for the disparity between the July weekly values and the latest ONI trimonthly value, which was still only +1.0c despite the much warmer weeklies.

The following was posted in the main board ENSO thread concerning that difference.

So if a record breaking trimonthly-ONI El Nino occurs, we'd very likely need some weekly values near +3.0c or so.

Yes, we would need some like the Euro is insisting on in the new runs, anomalies hitting +3.0C or above

[Isotherm]

This is the monthly Nino 3.4 comparison between the new official ERSST v4 and OISST v2

for the 97-98 event.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

 

..........OISST v2...new ERSSTv4

 

5/97......0.75.............0.56......-0.19

6/97......1.26.............1.09......-0.17

7/97......1.70.............1.44......-0.26

8/97......2.02.............1.74......-0.28

9/97......2.21.............1.98......-0.23

10/97....2.54.............2.25......-0.29

11/97....2.67.............2.33......-0.34

12/97....2.69.............2.24......-0.45

01/98....2.53.............2.22......-0.31

02/98....2.14.............1.90......-0.24

 

2015 so far

 

5/15.....1.03............0.87.........-0.16

6/15.....1.32............0.97.........-0.35

7/15.....1.60............1.21.........-0.39

 

 

Interesting. May was only a slight difference while July was quite a disparity. Similar variations occurred in 1997. Unanimously colder on the ERSST, however.

[ClicheVortex2014]

A bit OT, but do any of you guys know a good website, where I can see the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Composite anomaly of the waters in the Pacific?

Tropicaltidbits.com has a SSTA map that updates 4 times a day (00z/06z/12z/18z). 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

 

Here's another but I'm suspicious of its accuracy

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

Another

 

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

 

Another

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=212.92,8.13,397

 

And finally

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

[donsutherland1]

Case 4: Record-Smashing El Niño Event

• Super El Niño event

• Tri-monthly ONI peak (ERSSTv4): +2.5°C to +3.0°C

• Basin-wide throughout meteorological winter

 

Earlier in this thread, I posted outcomes from four strong El Niño events: 1965-66 (#614), 1982-83 (#627) and 1997-98 (#649). With some of the model forecasts suggesting that the current El Niño could beat some of the records set during the 1997-98 ENSO event, an attempt to look at such an event has a little merit.

 

It should be noted that this composite is not my current thinking. Moreover, as the above tri-monthly peaks would be unprecedented, the outcomes are speculative.

 

Two scenarios were derived from 1997-98, the current strongest El Niño on record. One scenario would lead to an extraordinarily warm winter in the East. A second would actually result in a cold December, followed by warmth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York City Snowfall:

 

Scenario 1: < 10"

 

Scenario 2: 10"-20"

[snowman19]

Case 4: Record-Smashing El Niño Event

• Super El Niño event

• Tri-monthly ONI peak (ERSSTv4): +2.5°C to +3.0°C

• Basin-wide throughout meteorological winter

Earlier in this thread, I posted outcomes from four strong El Niño events: 1965-66 (#614), 1982-83 (#627) and 1997-98 (#649). With some of the model forecasts suggesting that the current El Niño could beat some of the records set during the 1997-98 ENSO event, an attempt to look at such an event has a little merit.

It should be noted that this composite is not my current thinking. Moreover, as the above tri-monthly peaks would be unprecedented, the outcomes are speculative.

Two scenarios were derived from 1997-98, the current strongest El Niño on record. One scenario would lead to an extraordinarily warm winter in the East. A second would actually result in a cold December, followed by warmth.

New York City Snowfall:

Scenario 1: < 10"

Scenario 2: 10"-20"

Great post Don!

[donsutherland1]

Great post Don!

Thanks. FWIW, Mike Ventrice tweeted a map for December based on his ENSO analogs. It looks remarkably similar to positioning of the December anomalies in Scenario 1, though Scenario 1's warm anomalies are greater:

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/634794743428464640

 

It would be interesting to see what the December-February anomalies would look like using his ENSO analogs.

 

Of course, the extreme case remains speculative at this point in time. Other scenarios would almost certainly be possible, as my two scenarios are based on a limited set of assumptions, including the idea that such a strong ENSO event would, for the most part, predominate regardless of the other teleconnections barring, for example, the kind of extreme blocking that took place in 2009-10.

[griteater]

Don - his map looks like a Dec '82, '97 blend....which makes sense given that his index, which I believe is largely based on the VP anomaly pattern across the Eq Pacific, is sky high right now in the mold of those 2 years.

 

 

[snowman19]

Don - his map looks like a Dec '82, '97 blend....which makes sense given that his index, which I believe is largely based on the VP anomaly pattern across the Eq Pacific, is sky high right now in the mold of those 2 years.

His AEI is the highest it's ever been, way higher then even 1997-1998. The El Niño coupling with the atmosphere is off the charts this year

[donsutherland1]

Here's a close-up of the December map from my first scenario (most positive and/or least negative SOI values) for a record-breaking El Niño event and the December analog map Mike Ventrice tweeted yesterday:

 

My Case #4, Scenario 1 (Message #1168):

 

Mike Ventrice’s ENSO Analogs:

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/634794743428464640

[UnionWeatherWx]

PB, you think we hang on to the -EPO/+PDO pattern this winter?

[donsutherland1]

PB, you think we hang on to the -EPO/+PDO pattern this winter?

I'm not sure what PB GFI's thoughts are, but my guess is that it is more likely than not that the PDO+ will persist through the winter.

[snowman19]

Here's a close-up of the December map from my first scenario (most positive and/or least negative SOI values) for a record-breaking El Niño event and the December analog map Mike Ventrice tweeted yesterday:

My Case #4, Scenario 1 (Message #1168):

Mike Ventrice’s ENSO Analogs:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/634794743428464640

Don, your scenario one is basically a carbon copy of Dr. Ventrice's December map

[mitchnick]

Don, your scenario one is basically a carbon copy of Dr. Ventrice's December map

And the cfs2 December map

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd4.gif

[donsutherland1]

And the cfs2 December map

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd4.gif

There are subtle differences on the maps. Mine is a hypothetical illustration of what it might look like for an El Niño event that peaks with an ONI of +2.5°C to +3.0°C. The CFSv2 suggests such an outcome, so this kind of warmth is probably something that is on the table. It's too soon for me to reach any conclusions. I think a better idea will be available by some time in October when we see how the El Niño has evolved and is continuing to evolve.

[PB GFI]

Ahhh , I see I am being summoned , as I dry myself off from being in the pool all day , let me first say Don S is spot on with the warm Dec look as both Chris and I have been saying how it is very common and I opined only a few pages back that you could " write off " Dec this year as I think Dec will be warm . So I agree with the warm Dec look . 

 

Now , how we do we overcome this potential bad news .  You will see that many POS ENSO  events turn into back loaded winters .

For example here is  56/57 below  .  Also  09/10 turned into a GREAT winter as  Don pointed out as VERY strong blocking saved the day . 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

And the cfs2 December map

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd4.gif

Here are the 500s for Jan and Feb , which I don`t think is a bad this far away considering all the blocking it is seeing here  . If  this is right in the GOA the trough into the SE/MA  may be a little deeper .We saw the CFSV2 do this last year .

It put a deep NEG in the GOA  and in this case it`s into Europe as well and  washed the trough out into the east .

The Euro seasonal and JAMSTEC look stronger in the east , so I don`t think all is lost here .

 

[PB GFI]

PB, you think we hang on to the -EPO/+PDO pattern this winter?

 

 

We really will not know until O-D  . That plus 4 C water in the GOA should shed some heat , but Chris pointed out if you can warm the 4 region enough , maybe you pull that the vortex back a little futher west ( The Fall seasonal JMA ) alludes to it .

With all that warm water in the EPO and off BAJA ,can that promote enough ridging to force a POS PNA in the means like the Euro and JAMSTEC  think ? 

 

Many people think the STJ and it`s forcing will be the bully here .  I just think it`s A bully and may have to fight what`s in the EPO region and the Atlantic side ( which I have stated is probably harder to forecast  in terms of blocking ) than the PAC`S heat . 

[jm1220]

I'm not much of a fan of how the media describes the El Nino as "will have an impact". It's already having major weather impacts. The Nino drought in Australia has already popped up and is getting bad, and the historic flooding we had here in TX and elsewhere in the Midwest was directly El Nino-caused. You could trace each system that impacted us to the tropical Pacific. Hopefully this winter the firehose aims more at California, but without a doubt it'll probably be a cold/wet winter down here. Maybe I'll have one morning where I have to scrape frost off my car or have sleet mixed in with rain and call that a win. 

[KEITH L.I]

I'm not much of a fan of how the media describes the El Nino as "will have an impact". It's already having major weather impacts. The Nino drought in Australia has already popped up and is getting bad, and the historic flooding we had here in TX and elsewhere in the Midwest was directly El Nino-caused. You could trace each system that impacted us to the tropical Pacific. Hopefully this winter the firehose aims more at California, but without a doubt it'll probably be a cold/wet winter down here. Maybe I'll have one morning where I have to scrape frost off my car or have sleet mixed in with rain and call that a win. 

This will be nowhere near the el nino of 97-98