Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[ClicheVortex2014]

The entire  warm NINO regions allows the  STJ  to cut under the warmer water induced riding on the WC as a result of the " warmer anomalies in the BAJA and EPO region .

 

So as the STJ  has to break underneath  ( no question ) However ( because it all matters )  the ridging on the WC is able to turn the jet off the Asian continent over the pole and forces HP through the lakes . 

A neg EPO pos PNA should allow when for the shorter wave lengths to allow troughs to roll through at 500MB.

Since you carve out a trough in the SE the low level colder dense air will sink to the base of the trough .

 

 

So along with the nice WSI correlation to a - July AO to it`s wintertime , A strong STJ -  EPO- AO +AO sets us up for something a lot more than 72- 73  or 97 -98 . Because it all matters . 

Why are you automatically assuming there's gonna be a west coast ridge? This goes back to what I asked originally; do you really think the warm pools are going to trump the effect of a strong Nino's forcing? 

 

As far as the "WSI correlation"... I'm sure you were among the many that were riding the SAI all of last winter for a -AO/-NAO.

 

And yes, as I was typing this, Forky and Snowman brought up my next point... other Meteorologists on this board don't believe the warm pools were solely responsible for the RRR. I believe it has more of an effect than they're implying... but they do bring up a good point that the 45-50 degree water doesn't cause a massive ridge by itself. If you want to argue this with them, go on over to the Northeast's winter thread. Hit up CoastalWx and Typhoon Tip. I'd love to see this discussion.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-37

 

I reiterate... if the Nino forcing sets up in the right spot (such as 1957-58 and 1972-73), it doesn't matter what the SSTs below (in the GOA and PDO region) look like.

[PB GFI]

Why are you automatically assuming there's gonna be a west coast ridge? This goes back to what I asked originally; do you really think the warm pools are going to trump the effect of a strong Nino's forcing? 

 

As far as the "WSI correlation"... I'm sure you were among the many that were riding the SAI all of last winter for a -AO/-NAO.

 

And yes, as I was typing this, Forky and Snowman brought up my next point... other Meteorologists on this board don't believe the warm pools were solely responsible for the RRR. I believe it has more of an effect than they're implying... but they do bring up a good point that the 45-50 degree water doesn't cause a massive ridge. If you want to argue this with them, go on over to the Northeast's winter thread. Hit up CoastalWx and Typhoon Tip. I'd love to see this discussion.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-37

 

. I'm sure you were among the many that were riding the SAI all of last winter for a -AO/-NAO.  

I am sure you are mistaken . ( Not shocked here ) .

  

Why are you automatically assuming there's gonna be a west coast ridge? 

You can take it up with the Guidance , looks like the Euro seasonal  at 500 .

 

I chose to use the guidance along with analogs and they all point to ridging on the WC  . 

[PB GFI]

Wait more ridging 

[PB GFI]

[ClicheVortex2014]

It's too early to take seasonal guidance as gospel. All of the models, except JAMSTEC, did terribly at this time in the past 2 years. This year, JAMSTEC is an outlier with the Nino peaking in September. 

[BxEngine]

Discuss the forecast not the person. Goes for everyone.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Winter is DJF

 

[PB GFI]

It's too early to take seasonal guidance as gospel. All of the models, except JAMSTEC, did terribly at this time in the past 2 years. This year, JAMSTEC is an outlier with the Nino peaking in September. 

 

 

No one is making a forecast in August . We are going through the evolution of how this could evolve in the EPO region come - O - D

 

You are very late to the convo here . 2 months ago we picked apart the idea that was going to be an east based NINO '

I think we turned out right .

 

Finally , if you have any questions about what my forecast was or how I did last winter , ask the board . I am comfortable with the responses you will get . 

 

 

Winter is DJF

 

 

JFM are all colder on every model .Most pos ENSO years start warm - Hence why I said Dec will start warm . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

No one is making a forecast in August . We are going through the evolution of how this could evolve in the EPO region come - O - D

 

You are very late to the convo here . 2 months ago we picked apart the idea that was going to be an east based NINO '

I think we turned out right .

 

Finally , if you have any questions about what my forecast was or how I did last winter , ask the board . I am comfortable with the responses you will get . 

 

 

 

JFM are all colder on every model .Most pos ENSO years start warm - Hence why I said Dec will start warm . 

I'm not saying we'll have an east-based Nino, nor have I ever. 

 

If we're talking about how the EPO region could evolve... this whole discussion started with you saying that 1972-73 isn't an analog because of the warm pools in the north Pacific... and that 1940-41 can be an analog because the PDO/GOA regions match better. Tell me... do you think this Nino's forcing will be stronger than the effects of the warm pools?

[PB GFI]

I'm not saying we'll have an east-based Nino, nor have I ever. 

 

If we're talking about how the EPO region could evolve... this whole discussion started with you saying that 1972-73 isn't an analog because of the warm pools in the north Pacific... and that 1940-41 can be an analog because the PDO/GOA regions match better. Tell me... do you think this Nino's forcing will be stronger than the effects of the warm pool?

 

 

Dude , I know you are not . It is not aimed at you . We argued here with some that were certain it would be .

 

Yes the STJ will be stronger out of the southern branch , It is why every models aims the wettest anomalies into the SE

But secondary to that is how you do you get the N branch to slip HP  through the lakes ? 

You need ridging right ? 

We have no way of knowing how much of that plus 4C water in the NEPAC sticks around ( we have always said ) we need to wait until the fall .

 

However the GUIDANCE at this range are promoting ridging off the WC . When you do that , the shorter wave lengths allow HP to head around HP ( ridging ) on the WC end up sliding down from Canada . HP will turn that jet up and over the top .

I am sure ? OF COURSE NOT . But the climate models are hinting at it . 

Do we ignore it ?  

 

 

No one is making a forecast , all I have been saying ( since you did not see the orig posts ) on how this winter was destined to be lost was there were other factors other than the NINO driver as far as departures go .

 

Specifically was this east/ west or a basin wide event . Was this a modiki hybrid , were the edges cooler than the 3.4 region )  What the EPO region looked like and how much help the Atlantic side could supply which to date, I have not touched . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Fair enough. I needa make 3 points:

 

1) I still think you're over-emphasizing the importance of the warm pools this winter. It won't matter if it sticks around if the Aleutian low becomes fixed and creates a +EPO or -PNA. Because then you'd have to rely on the Atlantic and hope it works out like 1957-58.

 

2) If the first half of winter is warm, perhaps because the Aleutian low starts too far south and/or east, then that should take a hit on the warm pool... if it isn't already gone. 

 

3) There's certainly some models suggesting a cold/snowy winter, but there's just as many suggesting a warmer winter. If we look back at the top 10 strongest Ninos in the past ~150 years (which, of course, isn't a big sample size), only 2 of them had a -EPO. This winter could certainly join 1877-78 and 1940-41... but our brief history isn't on our side. It it all comes down to where the forcing is positioned... not those warm pools.

[Isotherm]

One point that has been absent from the conversation thus far is the influence of the PDO on the magnitude of the sub-tropical jet. While I agree that SST's in the middle latitudes are more a result of the preceding pattern than a cause, they can still have an effect in positively feeding back on the existing pattern, promoting maintenance, until a sufficiently strong enough atmospheric driver changes the regime. Furthermore, the PDO is statistically significantly correlated to the intensity of the sub-tropical jet as evidenced by the linear correlations NHEM plot of DFJ PDO seasonal correlation with the 300mb zonal winds:

 

There is a 0.5-0.6, locally 0.6-0.7 positive correlation with 300mb zonal winds over the SE US / GOM, which is a fairly representative of the upper level sub tropical jet in my opinion.

 

This is why less positive Nino PDO years (or negative) tend to feature weaker STJ's overall, and thus, less precipitation across the sern United States. The reason stems back to the physics of the STJ intensification in the Pacific. Warmer water in the Pacific tends to be promote a tightened atmospheric gradient, inducing stronger upper level zonal winds.

 

[griteater]

3) There's certainly some models suggesting a cold/snowy winter, but there's just as many suggesting a warmer winter. If we look back at the top 10 strongest Ninos in the past ~150 years (which, of course, isn't a big sample size), only 2 of them had a -EPO. This winter could certainly join 1877-78 and 1940-41... but our brief history isn't on our side. It it all comes down to where the forcing is positioned... not those warm pools.

Y'all have good discussion in here.

 

There actually has never been a strong nino with a -EPO pattern.  1877-1878 didn't have one.  1940-1941 came the closest, but had a +PNA pattern, though it did have some weak positive anomalies in eastern Alaska.  40-41 was a strong nino per ONI, but a moderate nino per MEI.  1930-1931 was the opposite..a moderate nino per ONI, but a strong nino per MEI...it also had a +PNA pattern.  '31 and '41 are the two years that most resemble some of the current 'positive' looking guidance such as the CA SST Analog model...on the flip side, I think the strength of this nino needs to get its due.  I feel it's going to be hard not to have a big NE Pac low in a ++ENSO / +PDO regime even if the SSTs aren't strongly east based....also, as has been mentioned, we have to watch the VP anomalies which are more closely following an east based pattern right now

[Isotherm]

Y'all have good discussion in here.

 

There actually has never been a strong nino with a -EPO pattern.  1877-1878 didn't have one.  1940-1941 came the closest, but had a +PNA pattern, though it did have some weak positive anomalies in eastern Alaska.  40-41 was a strong nino per ONI, but a moderate nino per MEI.  1930-1931 was the opposite..a moderate nino per ONI, but a strong nino per MEI...it also had a +PNA pattern.  '31 and '41 are the two years that most resemble some of the current 'positive' looking guidance such as the CA SST Analog model...on the flip side, I think the strength of this nino needs to get its due.  I feel it's going to be hard not to have a big NE Pac low in a ++ENSO / +PDO regime even if the SSTs aren't strongly east based....also, as has been mentioned, we have to watch the VP anomalies which are more closely following an east based pattern right now

 

 

I agree, and noted that very same point several pages back. The likelihood of a -EPO in the means is very low for the ensuing winter, based upon the statistical evidence. I think it's important for people to not become overly concerned with the numerical modality of certain indices. Not all +/-EPO's are alike; not all -NAO are alike, for example. The placement of mid level features is far more important. We need to monitor the longitude at which the lowest height anomalies set-up.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The warm pool off the PAC NW is part of the same pattern that is related to

the record SST's over the Nino 4 region that we have been experiencing.

These two features are part of the same pattern. One of the main reasons

that Nino1+2 is cooler now than 97-98 is that this warm SST anomaly pattern

favors the WWB pattern this year being stronger further west than 1997.

So the current warmer waters in the Nino 4 region are currently working against

Nino 1+2 becoming as warm. This reinforces the existing pattern that

the models are projecting into next winter. So if the warm pools and record

Nino 4 warmth verifies for fall into winter, it will be due to these promoting

a more central to west based forcing and Aleutian low position from action

currently underway.

Interesting. The only thing I have to add is the bolded. I'm not sure the activity in regions 4 and 1+2 are connected. Nino 4 was the warmest in late May/early June... but since then, it's been consistently hovering at 1C +/- 0.2C.

 

At the same time, Nino 1+2 had been consistently staying above 2C... gradually rising to its peak above 3C in the middle of summer.

 

But now Nino 1+2 has crashed, and Nino 4 has rapidly warmed. 

 

I guess I don't get how Nino 4 is "working against" 1+2 now. I just don't see a history of correlation/synchronization in the two indices.

 

 

By the way... that Nino 1+2 dip in late May wasn't real, according to the official CPC weekly reading.

 

I agree, and noted that very same point several pages back. The likelihood of a -EPO in the means is very low for the ensuing winter, based upon the statistical evidence. I think it's important for people to not become overly concerned with the numerical modality of certain indices. Not all +/-EPO's are alike; not all -NAO are alike, for example. The placement of mid level features is far more important. We need to monitor the longitude at which the lowest height anomalies set-up.

Agreed. The 1957-58 winter intrigues me the most; strong +EPO/-NAO... but the US pattern looks like a +PNA. It makes me wonder... did the Aleutian low placement (+PNA) cause the results, or the -NAO?

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

This second year event developed during a Modoki initial base state. So the Tropical Pacific SST profile influenced 

the way the OKW/WWB pattern evolved. The 1997 event was a first year with the March-July WWB and OKW

pattern situated further east promoting an east based event.

 

Nino 4 shares an overlapping pattern with the -EPO and North Pacific Mode of variability. There is some question 

now as to whether the record ridge over the NE Pacific which warmed the waters beneath originated from 

processes in the WPAC or Arctic back in 2013.

 

The maintenance of this pattern through the winter will depend on enough forcing extending  back into Nino 4

to keep the Aleutian low far enough SW.

 

February and March 1958 featured a -EPO pattern.

Hmm...

Nino 3.4: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/corr/65.185.149.188.229.16.42.52.gif

Nino 3: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/corr/65.185.149.188.229.16.42.18.gif

Nino 1+2: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/corr/65.185.149.188.229.16.43.14.gif

 

Don't get me wrong, the bit about Nino 4 overlapping with -EPO makes sense to me because I know west-based Nino winters are typically cold. 

 

It's interesting... looking at the correlations, Nino 1+2 brings the Aleutian low furthest north while Nino 4 brings it furthest south. I didn't expect that.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Oh snap

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Oh snap

Whoa. I look forward to Fall.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

ENSO precip index was a colossal +3.45 for July. It can sometimes be a leading indicator for Nino 3.4. That latest EKW is a monster.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Good read here, article was posted at 1AM GMT on August 19... so this is brand new. Some interesting points. I'll list only a couple.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=363

 

Fig 7: The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate & Society) Forecast for SST anomalies for 4, ‘3 month’ seasons. Per the associated text above, the most important ‘take away’ is the declining SSTA’s in the far NE Pacific (including the GOA). Even without an El Nino – the weakening and potential reversal of anomalies in the GOA by mid-winter would negate the forcing mechanism for a +PNA which prevailed during the last 2 winters, and this fact alone would argue for a far more ‘normal’ winter Temp pattern vs. a cold one..

 

 

Fig 8: SSTA Changes during the past month. Aside from the remarkable +2.0˚C anomaly now in the Niño 3.4 region –SSTA changes in the GOA and across the ATL basin have been substantial over the past month. Most importantly (beside the warm-up in the tropical Atlantic) is the large decline in the GOA. This lends support to what I’ve been mentioning for the past 2 months – as SSTA’s drop in the equatorial WPAC – they tend to lead a decline in the GOA as well. This appears to be well under way now, and if it continues as forecast by the IRI – the likelihood of a strong +PNA (and colder Temp pattern in the eastern US like last year) declines as well.

 

 

Fig 9: 'Close-up' of declining area of positive SST anomalies in the GOA.. Not only have actual anomalies decreased - the areal extent of warm anomalies has decreased and shifted towards the south over the past month..

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Good read here, article was posted at 1AM GMT on August 19... so this is brand new. Some interesting points. I'll list only a couple.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=363

This is good. It's interesting that the temps will be near normal instead. This leads me to believe that the snowstorms this winter will be fewer, but it may also be greater in size. The -EPO could have prevented us from having any good chances of great nor'easter's because it could have brought on a stronger but possibly overwhelming Northern Stream. The real teleconnections to be concerned about are the AO/NAO. Since we lose the -EPO mostly, we need to have the North Atlantic pull through for us.

[snowman19]

The new cfsv2 runs are back to showing a peak near +3.0C again. Dr. Ventrice is right, this oceanic kelvin wave is a monster, ssts in 3.4 are going to soar in the next few months

[ClicheVortex2014]

That's why several models like the JAMSTEC, ECMWF, UKMET, NMME, etc are currently showing the big ridge over

NW Canada this winter. That group of models spreads the warmer waters and forcing further west into Nino 4 

so the Aleutian low is further SW. But as always, we are talking about long range forecasts and the actual 

verification will determine which model camp gets the SST anomaly placement and forcing correct.

 

The NMME placement of the best forcing further west into the Central Pacific is the reason that 

the Aleutian Low is further SW allowing ridging into NW Canada. So this model is internally

consistent. But we'll have to wait and see if the westward placement of these features is

correct or not.

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_season5.png

 

NMME_ensemble_z200_season5.png

That makes sense. Nice post and well said. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

It will be very interesting to see how the fall into winter evolves since there will be

so much STJ potential coming to the table. The actual positioning of the Aleutian Low 

and SST anomalies will have big impact on what the winter sensible weather looks like here.

Will be a very interesting winter for sure, both Meteorologically and historically. It'd be icing on the cake if the Nino makes it to super status. I can't wait until we start seeing the Nino affect our pattern.

[snowman19]

Will be a very interesting winter for sure, both Meteorologically and historically. It'd be icing on the cake if the Nino makes it to super status. I can't wait until we start seeing the Nino affect our pattern.

It really starts to affect the long wave pattern when wavelengths change come oct/nov

[snowman19]

Will be a very interesting winter for sure, both Meteorologically and historically. It'd be icing on the cake if the Nino makes it to super status. I can't wait until we start seeing the Nino affect our pattern.

What we are seeing now is just astounding, Dr. Ventrice's AEI is going even higher and it had already been at record breaking high numbers for months to begin with. Given the warming we are still seeing on the TAO, would not be at all surprised to see Nino 3.4 up to +2.1C on the next update. Big question, how much higher does those ssts go given the continued wwbs, and that goliath oceanic kelvin wave pushing through over the next few months?

[snowman19]

Yeah, the OKW and WWB pattern continue to focus the greatest warming potential the

next few weeks over Nino 3.4 with a further drop for 1+2.

navy-anom-bb.gif

15.gif

Something to keep in mind, this is the time of year is where region 1+2 always sees a climatological drop. There is a drop off right now but the normal "cold tongue" response there that normally happens is way, way below average, which is an indication of a very strong basin wide Nino, the cold tongue this year is extremely weak to non existent. After this yearly drop off period it must be watched very closely to see if it warms again like it usually does, given the Nino, I expect it warms up some after this climo drop off period

[PB GFI]

Yeah, the OKW and WWB pattern continue to focus the greatest warming potential the 

next few weeks over Nino 3.4 with a further drop for 1+2.

 

navy-anom-bb.gif

 

15.gif

 

 

Agree  , the guidance has been on this for the last 6 weeks . You continue to see the greatest heat potential in the guidance expand west , along with the Kelvin wave that Mike Ventrice pointed out focused on the 3.4 region .

 

Like we have said from the beginning , I don`t expect ANY tick up in the 1.2 region . The models cool it , then level it off NEVER spiking it again .

 

I am comfortable that this BASIN wide nino, like we said would evolve from early on this thread will continue to show in both the verification and the guidance the 3.4 region wins out in terms of departures from normal .

 

Good work Chris . 

[thunderbolt]

Something to keep in mind, this is the time of year is where region 1+2 always sees a climatological drop. There is a drop off right now but the normal "cold tongue" response there that normally happens is way, way below average, which is an indication of a very strong basin wide Nino, the cold tongue this year is extremely weak to non existent. After this yearly drop off period it must be watched very closely to see if it warms again like it usually does, given the Nino, I expect it warms up some after this climo drop off period

what's your definition of some

[snowman19]

what's your definition of some

I don't know, that region is extremely volatile and difficult to predict. This time of year, there is always a climatological drop off for a period then it normally warms again. The difference this year, because of the super nino, the cold tongue that normally shows up is a no show