Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[snowman19]

Why

WWBs.... Haven't seen you in a long time

[PB GFI]

You can see this very strong third Kelvin wave focusing further west over Nino 3.4 instead 1+2 and  3 like

May and June ones.

 

Screen shot 2015-08-18 at 6.21.47 AM.png

 

I  really think our work is done with respect to 1.2 . It seems we have been making these arguments for close to 2 months now , on how this would spread west . The models always saw the greatest heat potential residing in the 3.4 region and 4 of us have opined ad nauseam  how this looked like  this would evolve into a basin wide event 1st and how the 3.4 region would end up warmer than the 1.2 region come the fall .

That was the core of the original argument here . 

 

The model continue to turn down region 1.2 from its high of 2.6C  to below 1.5C as modeled ( we lost .6C ) in just a week here , the fact that the we see a leveling off between O-D does not negate the models keeping the 3.4 region at + 2C through the same time period . So our other point on how the 3.4 region would end up warmer than 1.2 also looks to be spot on . 

 

We pointed put very early that the 1.2 region is always the most volatile and how some of our best winter NINOs start east based ( 09 ) comes to mind but the models insisted on how this would spread west . 

 

This is now a basin wide  event and ALL of the guidance holds the greatest heat in the 3.4 region through D .  I think what we were saying holds . 

 

So I am done even looking at the differences of 1.2 and 3.4 , it`s over .( We got what we were opining on ) .

 

Next up Chris what do we do with that plus 4C water in the EPO region and the extended heat off the BAJA  ? 

Do we keep it , how much of it do we erase come O-D , that`s the next challenge .  

I believe because this is not an east based event , you will see the warmer anomalies in the EPO  region and  BAJA carry through into the fall .( not to it`s  current extent ) .  There is just too much heat there to get erased and if you look at the latest Jamstec , the Aug guidance is warmer in those regions than it`s July guidance . 

The Euro seasonal holds the heat there as does the UKMET I posted yesterday .  If that is correct we will promote ridging on the WC so I will be focusing on that .

[ClicheVortex2014]

The models miss 1+2 and focus the additional warming in 3, 3.4 and eventually 4 over time.

 

nino12Sea.gif

Why'd you post the E2 update of CFS's Nino 1+2?

[thunderbolt]

Very good chance it pushes east, at least into region 3 though possibly 1+2 as well, we will see

I'm sure you're hoping it does

[MJO812]

I'm getting really excited about this upcoming winter. I will take my chances with a strong El Nino rather than a strong La Nina. This winter looks like it will be really wet with the raging STJ.  Combine that with a -NAO or -EPO and you will have yourself a weenie winter.  Lets hope that happens.

[SACRUS]

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Aug 18 fortnight update 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150818.pdf (full report)

 

Issued on 18 August 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The 2015 El Niño has continued to strengthen over the past fortnight. The ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weakened trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Strong coupling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere is typical of a mature El Niño, and suggests only a small chance of the event finishing before the end of the year.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to warm further, peaking later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, El Niño is not the only influence on rainfall and temperature; other factors, such as sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean, also affect Australia's climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to remain neutral. A positive IOD event remains possible, with three of the five international models indicating a positive IOD is likely during spring. The other two models remain neutral.

[snowman19]

Why'd you post the E2 update of CFS's Nino 1+2?

I keep seeing a few people using 1957-1958 as an analog, 2 things to remember about that year, 1, it was not a super nino and 2, if you look at where the main Nino subtropical convective forcing cell was, it was all west based forcing that winter. That's very important, and we will not, repeat will not know, where the forcing cell is likely to setup in the subtropical pacific this coming winter until this fall, come November we should have a very good idea but we are 3 months away right now. It's all about where the forcing is, will it be east based forcing or west based forcing? That is to be determined come later fall

[PB GFI]

Yeah, most models including the ECMWF would represent the first modern day very strong hybrid event between

a traditional El Nino and a Modoki. You can see a perfect overlap between the two types showing up in the long

range seasonal guidance. So this will be interesting to track heading into the fall and winter. That's why

they are going with WC ridging along with a supercharged STJ cutting underneath.

 

web_nino3.jpg

 

web_modoki.jpg

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

 

 

I am interested to see how having the edges in the region  ( 1.2  and 4  ) " cooler" , less warm than the warmer 3.4 works . 

Most of the guidance continues with the AN look in the EPO an BAJA region come D . 

 

Will that promote enough ridging from the WC into the GOA  to force that jet off the Asian continent up and over the top ?  That`s the hope ( for some ) . 

Curious to see how long and strong that plus 2- 4 C water sticks around .

[ClicheVortex2014]

I keep seeing a few people using 1957-1958 as an analog, 2 things to remember about that year, 1, it was not a super nino and 2, if you look at where the main Nino subtropical convective forcing cell was, it was all west based forcing that winter. That's very important, and we will not, repeat will not know, where the forcing cell is likely to setup in the subtropical pacific this coming winter until this fall, come November we should have a very good idea but we are 3 months away right now. It's all about where the forcing is, will it be east based forcing or west based forcing? That is to be determined come later fall

Actually the 57-58 forcing was in the same general region as the 72-73 forcing. The big difference is the strength of forcing, of which 72-73 was strongest. 57-58 saw a strong +EPO but was saved by the -NAO. The 72-73 winter didn't have a distinguishable/dominant EPO by looking at the 500mb geopotential heights... but it did have a strong -PNA.

 

 

I looked back at the page that shows loops of the top 10 strongest Ninos... only 2 of them had a -EPO. 1877-78 was a basin-wide Nino, and 1940-41 was a Modoki (or west-based, depending on one's definition of Modoki). 

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html

[Yanksfan]

I am interested to see how having the edges in the region  ( 1.2  and 4  ) " cooler" , less warm than the warmer 3.4 works . 

Most of the guidance continues with the AN look in the EPO an BAJA region come D . 

 

Will that promote enough ridging from the WC into the GOA  to force that jet off the Asian continent up and over the top ?  That`s the hope ( for some ) . 

Curious to see how long and strong that plus 2- 4 C water sticks around .

With the persistence of the warm pool in the NP and BAJA areas along with the overwhelming  July -AO correlations with winter, we're bound to have one of those indices come into play. If we ever achieve both, our snow potentials will go through the roof. 

[PB GFI]

2 analogs that appeal to the predicted profiles are below .

You can see the AN temps to the west of the BAJA and into the EPO region in both 40/41 and 57/58. Which gives you these back end departures that are common in Pos ENSO years . I don`t like 97/98 due to it`s east based warmth or 72/73 due to the cold water off the WC .   The warmer water in these regions  tend to promote ridging  on the WC and force HP through the lakes . 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

With the persistence of the warm pool in the NP and BAJA areas along with the overwhelming  July -AO correlations with winter, we're bound to have one of those indices come into play. If we ever achieve both, our snow potentials will go through the roof. 

 

Many of the analogs point to a warm Dec - so scratch month 1 .Winter should appear from mid Jan into March ,

What that means in terms of snow - NO ONE knows .  You always run the risk of being too blocky and watching that STJ go off to your South .

 

I am just looking at temp profiles . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1940-41 was a Modoki/west-based event... which this one won't be. 1972-73's Nino is also quite close to JAMSTEC's solution... I'd say it would sit only behind 1957-58. If the warmest anomalies end up further east, then 1972-73 should be #1. Remember, I'm only talking about ENSO. 

 

Pros of 1972-73 Nino:

- warmer to the east compared to 1957-58, more similar to this year's forecast

 

Cons of 1972-73 Nino: 

- it's cooler out west than JAMSTEC shows for this winter

[PB GFI]

1940-41 was a Modoki/west-based event... which this one won't be. 1972-73's Nino is also quite close to JAMSTEC's solution... I'd say it would sit only behind 1957-58. If the warmest anomalies end up further east, then 1972-73 should be #1. Remember, I'm only talking about ENSO. 

 

 

72/73 looks nothing like the JAMSTEC off BAJA and in the EPO region . You just can`t look at the basin , you have to look at the entire PAC. 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

72/73 looks nothing like the JAMSTEC off BAJA and in the EPO region . You just can`t look at the basin , you have to look at the entire PAC. 

 

I said only looking at the Nino. Obviously the SSTs are much different in the PDO/EPO region... but what I'm looking at is where the Nino forcing sets up. That's only one piece of the puzzle, but it's a big one.

[PB GFI]

I said only looking at the Nino. Obviously the SSTs are much different in the PDO/EPO region... but what I'm looking at is where the Nino forcing sets up. That's only one piece of the puzzle, but it's a big one.

 

That is the convo here . 

Check out 40/41 Entire Pac vs the NMME and Jamstec , the edges are " less warm "  not a Modiki but may act similar .

 

[snowman19]

I said only looking at the Nino. Obviously the SSTs are much different in the PDO/EPO region... but what I'm looking at is where the Nino forcing sets up. That's only one piece of the puzzle, but it's a big one.

Bingo, that is the key. Very strong/super el nino is an overwhelming dominating signal. Where the subtropical convective forcing sets up is key, that will tell us how the winter goes....

[ClicheVortex2014]

That is the convo here . 

Check out 40/41 Entire Pac vs the NMME and Jamstec , the edges are " less warm "  not a Modiki but may act similar .

 

Again... this Nino is gonna be a strong basin-wide Nino... not a borderline strong Modoki. There's a BIG difference in the east regions between 1940-41 and this winter.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Again... this Nino is gonna be a strong basin-wide Nino... not a borderline strong Modoki. There's a BIG difference in the east regions between 1940-41 and this winter.

PB is a wise man, I think he knows what he's talking about.

[ClicheVortex2014]

PB is a wise man, I think he knows what he's talking about.

It doesn't take a genius to see the difference between 1940-41 and the models output for this winter.

[PB GFI]

Again... this Nino is gonna be a strong basin-wide Nino... not a borderline strong Modoki. There's a BIG difference in the east regions between 1940-41 and this winter.

 

 

40/41 was further west , That`s not the argument here .

 I am taking the entire PAC into account . I am not comparing the 1.2 regions ( which look to .5 C + ) different  to 41 .

 

We are talking about the winter as a whole . The basin temp and the position of it`s strongest departures are only 1 piece 

 

I could not be more clear I used 40 /41 due to the warm water west of BAJA and in the EPO region .

I am at a loss as to how anyone could miss that.

 

As far this NINO , you are looking at another hybrid Modiki as 1.2 and 4 are cooler than 3.4 

 

 

Look at the PAC as whole - that is what I opined on , I could not have  been more clear about it`s implications for ridging on the WC come D- M 

[ClicheVortex2014]

40/41 was further west , That`s not the argument here .

 I am taking the entire PAC into account . I am not comparing the 1.2 regions ( which look to .5 C + ) different  to 41 .

 

We are talking about the winter as a whole . The basin temp and the position of it`s strongest departures are only 1 piece 

 

I could not be more clear I used 40 /41 due to the warm water west of BAJA and in the EPO region .

I am at a loss as to how anyone could miss that.

 

As far this NINO , you are looking at another hybrid Modiki as 1.2 and 4 are cooler than 3.4 

 

 

Look at the PAC as whole - that is what I opined on , I could not have  been more clear about it`s implications for ridging on the WC come D- M 

What does the warm water west of Baja and the "EPO region" have to do with anything? Nino forcing is one of the biggest atmospheric drivers in the winter, if not the biggest, especially when the Nino is this strong. If the Nino forcing sets up in the right place, it doesn't matter what the SSTs below look like. 

 

Call the Nino what you want, but each region is expected to be in the strong category. This Nino is most similar to 1957-58 (#1) and 1972-73 (#2).

[PB GFI]

What does the warm water west of Baja and the "EPO region" have to do with anything? Nino forcing is one of the biggest atmospheric drivers in the winter, if not the biggest, especially when the Nino is this strong. If the Nino forcing sets up in the right place, it doesn't matter what the SSTs below look like. 

 

Call the Nino what you want, but each region is expected to be in the strong category. This Nino is most similar to 1957-58 (#1) and 1972-73 (#2).

 

 

You have officially wasted everyone`s time here today . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

You have officially wasted everyone`s time here today . 

It's called having a discussion. Do you really think those warm pools are going to be more of a forcing mechanism than this strong Nino?

[brooklynwx99]

It's called having a discussion. Do you really think those warm pools are going to be more of a forcing mechanism than this strong Nino?

I think he means that your last post implied that the warm pools do not have an effect on the ensuing weather pattern in the US. They do have an effect, although not as strong as the effect of the niño. They need to be taken into account in order to predict the ultimate outcome of the winter.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I think he means that your last post implied that the warm pools do not have an effect on the ensuing weather pattern in the US. They do have an effect, although not as strong as the effect of the niño.

Exactly. But the strong Nino should outweigh the effect of the warm pools, whatever they may have. Therefore... I don't understand why he would consider 1940-41 an analog because of these warm pools, even though the Nino isn't similar.

[PB GFI]

It's called having a discussion. Do you really think those warm pools are going to be more of a forcing mechanism than this strong Nino?

 

 

The entire  warm NINO regions allows the  STJ  to cut under the warmer water induced riding on the WC as a result of the " warmer anomalies in the BAJA and EPO region .

 

So as the STJ  has to break underneath  ( no question ) However ( because it all matters )  the ridging on the WC is able to turn the jet off the Asian continent over the pole and forces HP through the lakes . 

A neg EPO pos PNA should allow when for the shorter wave lengths to allow troughs to roll through at 500MB.

Since you carve out a trough in the SE the low level colder dense air will sink to the base of the trough .

 

 

So along with the nice WSI correlation to a - July AO to it`s wintertime , A strong STJ -  EPO- AO +AO sets us up for something a lot more than 72- 73  or 97 -98 . Because it all matters . 

[SnoSki14]

We also don't know exactly how the warm pool will look like 3-4 months from now.

It 100% won't even be half as effective as last winter was.

[snowman19]

Exactly. But the strong Nino should outweigh the effect of the warm pools, whatever they may have. Therefore... I don't understand why he would consider 1940-41 an analog because of these warm pools, even though the Nino isn't similar.

Coastalwx made the argument over in the NE forum that SSTS don't drive the pattern, they are rather a reflection of the pattern in place. In other words the SSTS are the result of the pattern not the driver

[forkyfork]

the warm pool is a function of the pattern and not the other way around. 45f sst's aren't going to force a ridge