PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Where`s the error ? ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 .................... 1+2... 05AUG2015... 2.6 12AUG2015.. 2.0 Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April . The 1.2 region is known to be the more volatile of the regions but just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant. They've been saying this'll happen... but they've been wrong for 3 months. They kept saying it's imminent... they're finally right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. They've also said Nino 4 is imminently gonna warm... but it's obviously not happening. Hell, it's still going on right now.... and the tropical west Pacific has only cooled. Latest CFS runs is also hinting toward a warmer Nino 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 J-J-A Could get to 1.8 - 2 But then pulls back west in D-J- F . Posted 3 months ago . Heading the right direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 They've been saying this'll happen... but they've been wrong for 3 months. They kept saying it's imminent... they're finally right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. They've also said Nino 4 is imminently gonna warm... but it's obviously not happening. Hell, it's still going on right now.... and the tropical west Pacific has only cooled. Latest CFS runs is also hinting toward a warmer Nino 1+2. The 1.2 region was forecast to get to 2.5 C or so . It did the decline on the models over the last few month showed a drop to around 2 C starting mid July , it began its decline week 1 in Aug . The models were 3 weeks off on the decline not 3 months . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 lots of confirmation bias in this thread Where`s the error ? ^ Right here: Posted 3 months ago . Heading the right direction . Yeah, JAMSTEC has done well with JJA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Right here: Yeah, JAMSTEC has done well with JJA Here is the JMA from April and it`s look at the 3.4 region . Looks spot on . \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Here is the JMA from April and it`s look at the 3.4 region . Looks spot on . \ Too cold to the east, too warm to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Too cold to the east, too warm to the west. The 3.4 region just crossed into 2 C and the 1.2 region off .6 C in just the last week . The 3.4 region continues to warm and the 1.2 region has started to fall just as the models have advertised ( 3 weeks late ) from the forecasts 2 and 3 month ago . This is now basin wide , like we said and the 3.4 region has warmed as the 1.2 region cools as we said . Set in stone - nothing ever is , but we are trending that way, it what I opined on for over 2 months here and am comfortable how this is evolving . Not sure this evolution is even debatable . This will not an east based fall event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 Right here: Yeah, JAMSTEC has done well with JJA Region 4 forecasts have been bad, initializing too warm, showing warming that never happened. It's actually appearing to cool now on the TAO dailies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I am not sure what is being missed here . The call was this would not become an east based El Nino and how this would spread west basin wide , Region 1.2 3 and 3.4 are all at 2C . And the models are consistent in that the 3.4 region continues to warm and the 1.2 region cools . Don`t move the goal posts here These were the calls and this is what is happening . Next up is , do we keep the warmth off the Baja and in the EPO region through the fall . X and east based NINO there is a better chance that the plus 4C water you see in the EPO region will not be totally erased by the time we get to O - D . Not sure what is hard about how this is turning out , the models have been on the right track since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I am not sure what is being missed here . The call was this would not become an east based El Nino and how this would spread west basin wide , Region 1.2 3 and 3.4 are all at 2C . And the models are consistent in that the 3.4 region continues to warm and the 1.2 region cools . Don`t move the goal posts here These were the calls and this is what is happening . Next up is , do we keep the warmth off the Baja and in the EPO region through the fall . X and east based NINO there is a better chance that the plus 4C water you see in the EPO region will not be totally erased by the time we get to O - D . Not sure what is hard about how this is turning out , the models have been on the right track since May. You're completely ignoring Nino 4. It's over 1C cooler than the rest of the regions, and the models have been wrong about this for months. Nino 4 is just as important as Nino 1+2. No one's saying this will be an east-based Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I am not sure what is being missed here . The call was this would not become an east based El Nino and how this would spread west basin wide , Region 1.2 3 and 3.4 are all at 2C . And the models are consistent in that the 3.4 region continues to warm and the 1.2 region cools . Don`t move the goal posts here These were the calls and this is what is happening . Next up is , do we keep the warmth off the Baja and in the EPO region through the fall . X and east based NINO there is a better chance that the plus 4C water you see in the EPO region will not be totally erased by the time we get to O - D . Not sure what is hard about how this is turning out , the models have been on the right track since May. So are you saying we will have a -EPO this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 You're completely ignoring Nino 4. It's over 1C cooler than the rest of the regions, and the models have been wrong about this for months. Nino 4 is just as important as Nino 1+2. No one's saying this will be an east-based Nino. And how does having region 4 cooler than the 3.4 act during a Modoki ? Although we know this is not a Modoki it is a plus ( in terms of, if one is looking for a cooler winter ) seeing the heat focused in the 3.4 region which is 2C AN. Having the central basin warmer than the edges is a positive . No one's saying this will be an east-based Nino ? oh you would be surprised ....... Now you and I know that , we were preaching that since May , to others dismay my man . Having a cooler 1.2 and 4 region while the central basin is warmer is a clear positive for winter . The fact that the models cooled the 1.2 region off and the 4 region is not that warm as the models thought actually makes me feel better about this being vastly different than 97 . If you go back and read what has been written here from the very beginning this is exactly what was opined . You should cool the warmer water in the 1.2 region by the time we get to O - D , you will warm the entire basin first and the warmest waters inside the basin would be be found in the 3.4 region come this fall . As a side note it has also been written that since this would not be an east based Nino you had a good chance not losing the warmer waters in the EPO region come this fall . I am not sure if this overall could be evolving any better for the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 So are you saying we will have a -EPO this winter? Way to early to tell , but that water is plus 4 C . Some of that will get erased between now and N . We just have to wait and see to what extent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Every model has caved on the latest new runs. I guess the Euro and the CFSv2 weren't crazy after all insisting on this being an all time record breaking super El Niño peaking around November/December Attempting to verify a forecast 3 months prior is not a wise idea. I'm waiting to see what the August update of the IRI models show. Again, it's extremely difficult to achieve a trimonthly +ENSO event > 2.0c. Only 2 El Nino events accomplished that task in the past 65 years. 1982-83, just barely surpassing 2.0c at 2.1c, and 1997-98, at 2.3c trimonthly. As many of us have been consistently noting in this thread, this Nino event does not have the classic earmarks of an all-time record breaking Nino. We'd want to see eastern regions at least as warm as 97-98 at this point, and that's not the case. We're beginning to head in the opposing direction. It's possible the regions 1+2 warm again in future weeks, though model guidance isn't supportive of that. The region around Australia continues to run much warmer than 97-98 which will tend to inhibit the maintenance of persistently strong WWB's. While it's possible that this becomes a trimonthly super Nino, I continue to favor that not occurring for various reasons, some of which I noted in the aforementioned statements. Just like the 1996 blizzard, you need very, very special atmospheric conditions to come together in order to produce an all time record breaking El Nino. And at this juncture, I'm not seeing those factors coming together. For a very potent El Nino - yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 And how does having region 4 cooler than the 3.4 act during a Modoki ? Although we know this is not a Modoki it is better focus on the 3.4 region which is 2C AN. Having the central basin warmer than the edges is a positive . No one's saying this will be an east-based Nino ? oh you would be surprised ....... Now you and I know that , we were preaching that since May , to others dismay my man . Having a cooler 1.2 and 4 region while the central basin is warmer is a clear positive for winter . The fact that the models cooled the 1.2 region off and the 4 region is not that warm as the models thought actually makes me feel better about this being vastly different than 97 . The real difference from '97 is region 1+2, region 4 was not all that warm in '97. It was actually at similar levels to now during that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The real difference from '97 is region 1+2, region 4 was not all that warm in '97. It was actually at similar levels to now during that event. 1.2 3 3.4 4 12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Attempting to verify a forecast 3 months prior is not a wise idea. I'm waiting to see what the August update of the IRI models show. Again, it's extremely difficult to achieve a trimonthly +ENSO event > 2.0c. Only 2 El Nino events accomplished that task in the past 65 years. 1982-83, just barely surpassing 2.0c at 2.1c, and 1997-98, at 2.3c trimonthly. As many of us have been consistently noting in this thread, this Nino event does not have the classic earmarks of an all-time record breaking Nino. We'd want to see eastern regions at least as warm as 97-98 at this point, and that's not the case. We're beginning to head in the opposing direction. It's possible the regions 1+2 warm again in future weeks, though model guidance isn't supportive of that. The region around Australia continues to run much warmer than 97-98 which will tend to inhibit the maintenance of persistently strong WWB's. While it's possible that this becomes a trimonthly super Nino, I continue to favor that not occurring for various reasons, some of which I noted in the aforementioned statements. Just like the 1996 blizzard, you need very, very special atmospheric conditions to come together in order to produce an all time record breaking El Nino. And at this juncture, I'm not seeing those factors coming together. For a very potent El Nino - yes. I don't disagree with most of what you said... I just want to make 2 points: 1) CFS is hinting at Nino 1+2 stalling out soon. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif 2) The water around Australia has cooled in the past month... and especially in the west tropical Pacific. It's still a respectable difference from 1997... but it's clear we're not gonna have a Nino like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 UKMET winter SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Nino 4 is currently running at record levels for this time of year. The Euro has Nino 4 holding steady through August with a rise in September and October as Nino 3.4 warms and spreads west with the third very impressive Kelvin wave. get_legacy_plot-atls10-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-knpk5H.gif CLleS0_UkAAmu76.png Yeh, this has spread west. There are plenty of posts here over the last few months that are in line with exactly how this is evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Much of today's ENSO data has been covered in this thread. The major development was the cooling in ENSO Region 1+2. This does not necessarily mean that ENSO will transition into a central Pacific oriented one with cool anomalies in Region 1+2. Instead, it reaffirms the leading probability of a basin-wide event in which Region 3.4 anomalies > Region 1+2 ones. There remains some possibility that there could be a rebound in Region 1+2, much as what happened in 1972-73 when the September average fell 0.8°, only to stabilize there and then gradually rise. Moreover, historic experience suggests that it is more likely than not that Region 1+2 has seen its peak anomalies and that any secondary peak will likely be lower than the one that was recently witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Much of today's ENSO data has been covered in this thread. The major development was the cooling in ENSO Region 1+2. This does not necessarily mean that ENSO will transition into a central Pacific oriented one with cool anomalies in Region 1+2. Instead, it reaffirms the leading probability of a basin-wide event in which Region 3.4 anomalies > Region 1+2 ones. There remains some possibility that there could be a rebound in Region 1+2, much as what happened in 1972-73 when the September average fell 0.8°, only to stabilize there and then gradually rise. Moreover, historic experience suggests that it is more likely than not that Region 1+2 has seen its peak anomalies and that any secondary peak will likely be lower than the one that was recently witnessed. Hmmm... I thought a central-based Nino would be where Region 3 and 3.4 are highest... and a basin-wide would be where the anomalies are similar across the board. How would you label these Nino biases then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Hmmm... I thought a central-based Nino would be where Region 3 and 3.4 are highest... and a basin-wide would be where the anomalies are similar across the board. How would you label these Nino biases then? Basinwide sees all ENSO Regions at or above +0.5°C; Central Pacific would have R3.4 and/or R3 and/or R4 at or above ENSO threshold while R1+2 was below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Basinwide sees all ENSO Regions at or above +0.5°C; Central Pacific would have R3.4 and/or R3 and/or R4 at or above ENSO threshold while R1+2 was below it. Ah, okay. In terms of the largest anomalies, I see why 1957-58 is being talked about as an analog to JAMSTEC's solution. 1972-73 is slightly further east, but it's a stronger Nino than 57-58 and warmer 1+2. I'd say 1972-73 should be analog #2 for the ENSO. It's interesting that one also saw an easterly cooling in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 1.2 3 3.4 4 12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Nice Hey man. Where you been ? All good ? Miss you in PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Hey man. Where you been ? All good ? Miss you in PR Hey Paul! I've been trying to stick to the weather side. But with the extreme level of boringness in the weather right now, I'm getting tempted. Was actually just perusing it now, and man do I just want to pick a fight with Trixie. Maybe I better not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Hey Paul! I've been trying to stick to the weather side. But with the extreme level of boringness in the weather right now, I'm getting tempted. Was actually just perusing it now, and man do I just want to pick a fight with Trixie. Maybe I better not lol. I would rather stick my hand in a real Lion`s den that get on her bad side . Good to see that all is well man , I will check in there later on and see what`s going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 You can see this very strong third Kelvin wave focusing further west over Nino 3.4 instead 1+2 and 3 like May and June ones. Screen shot 2015-08-18 at 6.21.47 AM.png Very good chance it pushes east, at least into region 3 though possibly 1+2 as well, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Very good chance it pushes east, at least into region 3 though possibly 1+2 as well, we will see Why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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