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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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You will get crushed this winter, I would die to live in your location.

One thing you have to remember is where the actual axis of heaviest snows are. In other words like most winters, pattern setups and storm tendencies  tend to repeat. Just ask the people in Boston how there winter went last year. As long as we don't torch this winter, who jackpots this time? D.C., New York, or New England?

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I'm usually cautious until the information is more definitive. The strong (possible super) El Niño event, very warm SSTs in the northeast Pacific, and potential blocking presents a particularly interesting and complex scenario. The widespread warmth this August suggests that one should not make early assumptions about the upcoming winter, even as a variety of scenarios is on the proverbial table.

What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for.

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What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for.

The closest SSTA matches to the current one tended to bring above to much above normal rainfall to at least northern California during the December-February period. The latest CFSv2 also seems to focus on northern California but has more widespread wet anomalies.

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What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for.

Obviously, they need the RRR to go away first and foremost. Then I think they need the Aleutian low to be displaced further south and east in a similar manner as 97-98, 82-83, 72-73, 57-58, and whatever other similar years there were before 1950.

 

q8Zh4oX.png

 

3/4 of those years were warm winters... and I agree with you... as long as California breaks the cycle and gets a bunch of rain, I'll put up with whatever comes our way.

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... as long as California breaks the cycle and gets a bunch of rain, I'll put up with whatever comes our way.

Glad to see opinions like this being expressed, although it may take a long time for the West to recover this time.

I'm with you on this one, having lived in N. CA for 31 years, until 2003.  

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Glad to see opinions like this being expressed, although it may take a long time for the West to recover this time.

I'm with you on this one, having lived in N. CA for 31 years, until 2003.  

Things look reasonably good at this time, but there are some El Niños that have failed to produce. Examples include 1899-00, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1965-66, and 1991-92. However, in those cases, a lot of the water off western North America was much cooler than is the case at present.

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here's a record for snow fall futility in NYC...the least amount of seasonal snowfall for the date...2006-07 had it's first flakes on January 10th...1973 had it's first measurable snowfall on 1/29...1995 holds the record of only 0.2" until Feb. 4th...1998 holds the record with only 0.5" until March 22nd...1919 in in there also...Only the 1999-2000 season wasn't an el nino year...

least...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/20/1973.....trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

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here's a record for snow fall futility in NYC...the least amount of seasonal snowfall for the date...2006-07 had it's first flakes on January 10th...1973 had it's first measurable snowfall on 1/29...1994 holds the record of only 0.2" until Feb. 4th...1998 holds the record with only 0.5" until March 22nd...1919 in in there also...Only the 1999-2000 season wasn't an el nino year...

least...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/20/1973.....trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1994.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

I think your 1994 date is wrong since that was a year with snows starting furiously in the second half of December 93.

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Decent write up on a pre winter forecast from Glenn " Hurricane" Schwartz. Tenured TV weather forecaster from Philadelphia, PA. Discusses El Nino.

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Hurricane_Schwartz_El_Nino_and_winter_A_first_look_from_August.html

I think he got the -+ao years backwards...-ao years yield more snow on average...A +PNA is just important...

NYC's 10" snowfalls and indices at time of event...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina

12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino

14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-

15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-

15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-

10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-

18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-

13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino

15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina

15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino

14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino

18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino

13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+

18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino

10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino

13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+

11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino

20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina

11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina

12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina

20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino

14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+

10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+

14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino

27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-

11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino

10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino

21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino

20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina

19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina

11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral-

11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral-

10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral-

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The daily monitoring now has region 3.4 up to +2.0C, so it would appear we have reached the Super status on the weekly numbers. Now does it sustain at or above that for a tri-monthly period? given that it is still strengthening as we speak, I don't see how that number not only sustains, but goes up higher. The warming is still ongoing

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It would be interesting to know which dataset the various model ENSO forecasts are using.

Not sure why the weekly updates are using a different dataset from the new official monthly

and trimonthly SST's. You can see how previous El Ninos were revised lower.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

1979-80 was revised upward to a weak el nino status...

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Region 1+2 is beginning to cool significantly as anticipated, per latest SSTA observations. I would expect this to be reflected in the numbers either this week or next week.

 

 

They finally got it right. 100-something-th time is the charm, no?

 

Latest CFS is now picking up on a warmer Nino 1+2 crash and a warmer 3.4 peak 

 

R8KkP8q.gif

aTffvwG.gif

 

Non-PDF corrected 3.4:

kkfInVp.gif

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Australia's BoM climate model page has updated... 1/8 of the models have the Nino peaking before November. All of the models have region 3.4 reaching 2.4C in November.

mhGQh3r.png

STVRxo0.png

qge5D45.png

Every model has caved on the latest new runs. I guess the Euro and the CFSv2 weren't crazy after all insisting on this being an all time record breaking super El Niño peaking around November/December
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The weekly OISST.v2 is showing the 1+2 drop that the models have been forecasting as the warmest

waters shift west toward 3.4. You can see how this is more west based on this date relative to

the east based 1997.

....................1+2...3...3.4...4

05AUG2015... 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9

13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6

The interesting thing is Nino 4 too, the models kept insisting it was going to warm since June and nada, in fact it appears to have not only leveled off, but it may be starting to drop and cool, eyeballing the latest TAOs
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The interesting thing is Nino 4 too, the models kept insisting it was going to warm since June and nada, in fact it appears to have not only leveled off, but it may be starting to drop and cool, eyeballing the latest TAOs

 

I think that 3.4 will need to warm more and the warmer SST's gradually spread west to see 4 rise. This is a unique year

where such a strong second year event following a modoki. You can see how much warmer

west is and cooler the east compared to 1997.

 

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The weekly OISST.v2 is showing the 1+2 drop that the models have been forecasting as the warmest

waters shift west toward 3.4. You can see how this is more west based on this date relative to

the east based 1997.

....................1+2...3...3.4...4

05AUG2015... 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9

13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6

.................... 1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6

12AUG2015.. 2.0

Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April .

The 1.2 region is known to be the more volatile of the regions but just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant.

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....................      1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6  

12AUG2015..  2.0  

 

Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April  . 

The 1.2 region is know to be the more volatile of the regions but  just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant.

 

For hopes of a snowy winter, I know we need more variables to fall into place but with regions 1+2 region cooling off quickly, it is an encouraging start.

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....................      1+2...

05AUG2015... 2.6  

12AUG2015..  2.0  

 

Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April  . 

The 1.2 region is know to be the more volatile of the regions but  just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant.

 

 

Yeah, you can see the differences on this date between 1997 across the whole North Pacific

from the Equator northward east of 180.

 

 

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Yeah, you can see the differences on this date between 1997 across the whole North Pacific

from the Equator northward east of 180.

 

attachicon.gif2015.gif

 

attachicon.gif97.gif

 

 

Going according to plan man , 

 

The 1.2 region was 2.6C warmer at this point in 97 , so as this cools we will get away from an east based fall El Nino , like we thought .

Now lets see it holds and keep falling .  

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