UnionWeatherWx Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 watched the world nightly news tonight. Lots of talk about epic weather coming with the record el nino Sorta of exciting to ponder at a 3 ft dump of snow in a storm at my house this season. You will get crushed this winter, I would die to live in your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 You will get crushed this winter, I would die to live in your location.That would defeat the purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 You will get crushed this winter, I would die to live in your location. One thing you have to remember is where the actual axis of heaviest snows are. In other words like most winters, pattern setups and storm tendencies tend to repeat. Just ask the people in Boston how there winter went last year. As long as we don't torch this winter, who jackpots this time? D.C., New York, or New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 I'm usually cautious until the information is more definitive. The strong (possible super) El Niño event, very warm SSTs in the northeast Pacific, and potential blocking presents a particularly interesting and complex scenario. The widespread warmth this August suggests that one should not make early assumptions about the upcoming winter, even as a variety of scenarios is on the proverbial table. What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for. The closest SSTA matches to the current one tended to bring above to much above normal rainfall to at least northern California during the December-February period. The latest CFSv2 also seems to focus on northern California but has more widespread wet anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 What scenario would be the one to get California out of its drought with much needed rain? That is the one I am going to root for. Obviously, they need the RRR to go away first and foremost. Then I think they need the Aleutian low to be displaced further south and east in a similar manner as 97-98, 82-83, 72-73, 57-58, and whatever other similar years there were before 1950. 3/4 of those years were warm winters... and I agree with you... as long as California breaks the cycle and gets a bunch of rain, I'll put up with whatever comes our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 ... as long as California breaks the cycle and gets a bunch of rain, I'll put up with whatever comes our way. Glad to see opinions like this being expressed, although it may take a long time for the West to recover this time. I'm with you on this one, having lived in N. CA for 31 years, until 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Glad to see opinions like this being expressed, although it may take a long time for the West to recover this time. I'm with you on this one, having lived in N. CA for 31 years, until 2003. Things look reasonably good at this time, but there are some El Niños that have failed to produce. Examples include 1899-00, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1965-66, and 1991-92. However, in those cases, a lot of the water off western North America was much cooler than is the case at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 15, 2015 Author Share Posted August 15, 2015 And the Euro continues predicting the strongest Nino in history on the new August run...https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/632528074677059584 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 here's a record for snow fall futility in NYC...the least amount of seasonal snowfall for the date...2006-07 had it's first flakes on January 10th...1973 had it's first measurable snowfall on 1/29...1995 holds the record of only 0.2" until Feb. 4th...1998 holds the record with only 0.5" until March 22nd...1919 in in there also...Only the 1999-2000 season wasn't an el nino year... least... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Decent write up on a pre winter forecast from Glenn " Hurricane" Schwartz. Tenured TV weather forecaster from Philadelphia, PA. Discusses El Nino. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Hurricane_Schwartz_El_Nino_and_winter_A_first_look_from_August.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 here's a record for snow fall futility in NYC...the least amount of seasonal snowfall for the date...2006-07 had it's first flakes on January 10th...1973 had it's first measurable snowfall on 1/29...1994 holds the record of only 0.2" until Feb. 4th...1998 holds the record with only 0.5" until March 22nd...1919 in in there also...Only the 1999-2000 season wasn't an el nino year... least... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1994.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... I think your 1994 date is wrong since that was a year with snows starting furiously in the second half of December 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 I think your 1994 date is wrong since that was a year with snows starting furiously in the second half of December 93. yea it should be 1995...thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Decent write up on a pre winter forecast from Glenn " Hurricane" Schwartz. Tenured TV weather forecaster from Philadelphia, PA. Discusses El Nino. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Hurricane_Schwartz_El_Nino_and_winter_A_first_look_from_August.html I think he got the -+ao years backwards...-ao years yield more snow on average...A +PNA is just important... NYC's 10" snowfalls and indices at time of event... snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI.... 12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina 12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino 14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral- 15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral- 15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral- 10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral- 18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral- 13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino 15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina 15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino 14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino 18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino 13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+ 18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino 10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino 13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+ 11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino 20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina 11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina 12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina 20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino 14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+ 10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+ 14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino 27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral- 11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino 10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino 21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino 20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina 19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina 11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral- 11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral- 10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 15, 2015 Author Share Posted August 15, 2015 You know it's a really strong Nino when this is the only one similar to compare it to....https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/632575878656987136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 16, 2015 Author Share Posted August 16, 2015 The daily monitoring now has region 3.4 up to +2.0C, so it would appear we have reached the Super status on the weekly numbers. Now does it sustain at or above that for a tri-monthly period? given that it is still strengthening as we speak, I don't see how that number not only sustains, but goes up higher. The warming is still ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 The facts as bluewave points out speak for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 It would be interesting to know which dataset the various model ENSO forecasts are using. Not sure why the weekly updates are using a different dataset from the new official monthly and trimonthly SST's. You can see how previous El Ninos were revised lower. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml 1979-80 was revised upward to a weak el nino status... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Can't wait for the Nino to strengthen even more in the coming months... how much stronger can this index get? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Region 1+2 is beginning to cool significantly as anticipated, per latest SSTA observations. I would expect this to be reflected in the numbers either this week or next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Region 1+2 is beginning to cool significantly as anticipated, per latest SSTA observations. I would expect this to be reflected in the numbers either this week or next week. They finally got it right. 100-something-th time is the charm, no? Latest CFS is now picking up on a warmer Nino 1+2 crash and a warmer 3.4 peak Non-PDF corrected 3.4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Australia's BoM climate model page has updated... 1/8 of the models have the Nino peaking before November. All of the models have region 3.4 reaching 2.4C in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 Australia's BoM climate model page has updated... 1/8 of the models have the Nino peaking before November. All of the models have region 3.4 reaching 2.4C in November. Every model has caved on the latest new runs. I guess the Euro and the CFSv2 weren't crazy after all insisting on this being an all time record breaking super El Niño peaking around November/December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 The weekly OISST.v2 is showing the 1+2 drop that the models have been forecasting as the warmest waters shift west toward 3.4. You can see how this is more west based on this date relative to the east based 1997. ....................1+2...3...3.4...4 05AUG2015... 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.9 12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 The interesting thing is Nino 4 too, the models kept insisting it was going to warm since June and nada, in fact it appears to have not only leveled off, but it may be starting to drop and cool, eyeballing the latest TAOs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The interesting thing is Nino 4 too, the models kept insisting it was going to warm since June and nada, in fact it appears to have not only leveled off, but it may be starting to drop and cool, eyeballing the latest TAOs I think that 3.4 will need to warm more and the warmer SST's gradually spread west to see 4 rise. This is a unique year where such a strong second year event following a modoki. You can see how much warmer west is and cooler the east compared to 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The weekly OISST.v2 is showing the 1+2 drop that the models have been forecasting as the warmest waters shift west toward 3.4. You can see how this is more west based on this date relative to the east based 1997. ....................1+2...3...3.4...4 05AUG2015... 2.6 2.3 1.9 0.9 12AUG2015.. 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 13AUG1997....4.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 .................... 1+2... 05AUG2015... 2.6 12AUG2015.. 2.0 Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April . The 1.2 region is known to be the more volatile of the regions but just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 .................... 1+2... 05AUG2015... 2.6 12AUG2015.. 2.0 Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April . The 1.2 region is know to be the more volatile of the regions but just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant. For hopes of a snowy winter, I know we need more variables to fall into place but with regions 1+2 region cooling off quickly, it is an encouraging start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 .................... 1+2... 05AUG2015... 2.6 12AUG2015.. 2.0 Many of us have been looking for this to decline , the models have been predicting a crash in the 1.2 region around this time since April . The 1.2 region is know to be the more volatile of the regions but just as the models have been saying ( only 2 weeks off ) this drop is significant. Yeah, you can see the differences on this date between 1997 across the whole North Pacific from the Equator northward east of 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Yeah, you can see the differences on this date between 1997 across the whole North Pacific from the Equator northward east of 180. 2015.gif 97.gif Going according to plan man , The 1.2 region was 2.6C warmer at this point in 97 , so as this cools we will get away from an east based fall El Nino , like we thought . Now lets see it holds and keep falling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 lots of confirmation bias in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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