Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[ClicheVortex2014]

If the blog is inferring that 1997-98 was only the 4th strongest El Niño event of the 19th and 20th centuries, that is wrong. The tri-monthly ONI for 1997-98 is highest, 1982-83 is 2nd highest, and 1877-78 is 3rd highest. Using the MEI, which really assesses ENSO impact, not direct ENSO strength, 1982-83 ranks 1st, 1997-98 2nd, and 1877-78 3rd.

Yeah I dunno what that's about. I posted it more for the graphs... very helpful guide when talking about analogs.

[JC-CT]

The real question is where these storms track. Do storms track up the Appalachians this winter, bringing heavy snow to the interior and rain for the East Coast? Do they track up the coast, bringing snow to the Northeast? Or, do they track further south and east, bringing snow to the South? There's plenty of wiggle room between these scenarios too. Last winter, NYC barely missed out on the big snows. Climatology favors the first scenario.

Teleconnections and computer models can give us a rough idea a week or so out. But ultimately, we will know little until a few days before a storm hits. As last year's January blizzard demonstrated, a storm's track is not definitively known even within hours of the storm's onset. I think what is known now is that there will likely be opportunities for storm development this winter.

Lol

[donsutherland1]

Yeah I dunno what that's about. I posted it more for the graphs... very helpful guide when talking about analogs.

Overall, it has a lot of good information. Notice the February 1889 and February 1941 maps. In both cases, blocking regimes developed and lasted into March. March 1941 saw a blizzard.

[uncle W]

Overall, it has a lot of good information. Notice the February 1889 and February 1941 maps. In both cases, blocking regimes developed and lasted into March. March 1941 saw a blizzard.

February 1889 was quite cold but snow was lacking...February 1941 had a snowstorm south of NYC with 4" in the city proper...a foot fell way south of the city...Another big storm on March 8th...18" was measured in the city...It was a wet 18"...The JMA has 1888-89 and 1896-97 as strong el ninos...1930-31 was another strong second year nino...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

[snowman19]

I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)?

It's seeing a raging subtropical jet over the area(clouds and rain cooled air) fueled by a super Nino that's why it's showing the SE U.S. 'below normal' it isn't showing a "cold air" push from Canada causing that departure

[thunderbolt]

It's seeing a raging subtropical jet over the area(clouds and rain cooled air) fueled by a super Nino that's why it's showing the SE U.S. 'below normal' it isn't showing a "cold air" push from Canada causing that departure

[Absolute Humidity]

Need to keep in perspective what effect will an over all much warmer Northern Pacific have now, 2015, then it did during previous super Nino events. Will a warmer base state have a limiting effect?

[PB GFI]

It's seeing a raging subtropical jet over the area(clouds and rain cooled air) fueled by a super Nino that's why it's showing the SE U.S. 'below normal' it isn't showing a "cold air" push from Canada causing that departure

This is false and fails to see the bigger picture .

Every seasonal model ( including the insert below ) has the EXACT same look at 500 mb or 17k feet . What you are seeing are higher heights over lower heights . EVERY model is showing you a trough in the means at 500 . That is why it is colder against the normals the further south one goes at 2M.

Cold air sinks to the base of any trough , which means the flow with ridging on Hudson Bay ( in which the model is clearly showing ) is coming through Canada and must be funneled SE .

The model is clearly showing that the air is not being shunted back over the top but modifying as it comes through the lakes .

The colder relative to averages means that the further S one goes in this pattern the colder against the norms the model thinks it is going to be . You can see the trough teleconnect nicely with the trough in Europe .

Look at what this , the JAMSTEC 2m profile and the EURO seasonal at 500 are forecasting , they ALL have the same idea .

Blocking over the top with the SE trough . You can clearly see that below . That is not a 2M forecast but a 500MB one .

[uncle W]

That's pretty common in numerous El Ninos like 2009-2010. Not saying we'll see those warm/cold extremes , but Canada

experienced the warmest winter on record and the Southeast one of the coldest. NYC only finished the winter at -0.8

and never dipped under 13 degrees.

 

elnino.djf.temp.gif

 

elnino.djf.snow.gif

2009-10 winter minimum temperature was only 13 in Central Park...one of the warmest on record...1982-83 was 12...1997-98 was 14...

[easternsnowman]

The real question is where these storms track. Do storms track up the Appalachians this winter, bringing heavy snow to the interior and rain for the East Coast? Do they track up the coast, bringing snow to the Northeast? Or, do they track further south and east, bringing snow to the South? There's plenty of wiggle room between these scenarios too. Last winter, NYC barely missed out on the big snows. Climatology favors the first scenario. 

 

Teleconnections and computer models can give us a rough idea a week or so out. But ultimately, we will know little until a few days before a storm hits. As last year's January blizzard demonstrated, a storm's track is not definitively known even within hours of the storm's onset. I think what is known now is that there will likely be opportunities for storm development this winter.

You're right about tracks, however the the teleconnections will be very important this year.

[snowman19]

Just eyeballing the latest SST anomalies in region 3.4, it appears we have reached if not exceeded +2.0C and the warming is still continuing.....

[bluewave]

Nice animation showing warmest SST's shifting west from Nino 3 to 3.4 the last few weeks.

 

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/632212404949020672

[snowman19]

Nice animation showing warmest SST's shifting west from Nino 3 to 3.4 the last few weeks.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/632212404949020672

Pretty clear region 3.4 is going to Super status shortly on the weeklies. Like we've said before, we need to focus on where the Nino forcing cell sets up this fall and not just worry about SSTS only, it doesn't necessarily need to setup over the warmest anomalies. I think Joe Bastardi is too focused on where the warmest water is and automatically assumes that the Nino tropical convective forcing is definitely going to be there. That very well may not be the case and we won't know until we get into the fall exactly where that will be. SSTS are important, yes, but it's not the only do all and end all

[cleetussnow]

This is false and fails to see the bigger picture .

Every seasonal model ( including the insert below ) has the EXACT same look at 500 mb or 17k feet . What you are seeing are higher heights over lower heights . EVERY model is showing you a trough in the means at 500 . That is why it is colder against the normals the further south one goes at 2M.

Cold air sinks to the base of any trough , which means the flow with ridging on Hudson Bay ( in which the model is clearly showing ) is coming through Canada and must be funneled SE .

The model is clearly showing that the air is not being shunted back over the top but modifying as it comes through the lakes .

The colder relative to averages means that the further S one goes in this pattern the colder against the norms the model thinks it is going to be . You can see the trough teleconnect nicely with the trough in Europe .

Look at what this , the JAMSTEC 2m profile and the EURO seasonal at 500 are forecasting , they ALL have the same idea .

Blocking over the top with the SE trough . You can clearly see that below . That is not a 2M forecast but a 500MB one .

I'm trying to imagine the mean jet across these anomoly maps to get what your saying.  The 2 things that I see - that don't look 'good' is that A) the cold air source looks like its quite warm - but maybe the ridge out west is really high up so fine - and B ) for a good baroclonic set up, this is upside down - You want the cold anomoly to the north, and the warm riding up under the trough.   

[PB GFI]

I'm trying to imagine the mean jet across these anomoly maps to get what your saying.  The 2 things that I see - that don't look 'good' is that A) the cold air source looks like its quite warm - but maybe the ridge out west is really high up so fine - and B ) for a good baroclonic set up, this is upside down - You want the cold anomoly to the north, and the warm riding up under the trough.   

 

Post 978 

 

Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map  ( WHICH IS THE MAP I POSTED ) 

That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE.

So it heads through the lakes .

So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow .

So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 SD above in Manitoba is cold enough here.

So the departures from normal  are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow.

All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes.

They are forced to the east coast.

Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well.

So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see.

[atownwxwatcher]

 

Post 978 

 

Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map  ( WHICH IS THE MAP I POSTED ) 

That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE.

So it heads through the lakes .

So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow .

So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 SD above in Manitoba is cold enough here.

So the departures from normal  are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow.

All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes.

They are forced to the east coast.

Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well.

So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see.

 

And pretty much everyone that I have now seen is getting on board with the same direction that you have been talking. I want to thank you cause its only you and a couple others that are looking at the picture as a whole and not just blasting Oh this is going to be the greatest nino of all time. .. 

[PB GFI]

And pretty much everyone that I have now seen is getting on board with the same direction that you have been talking. I want to thank you cause its only you and a couple others that are looking at the picture as a whole and not just blasting Oh this is going to be the greatest nino of all time. .. 

 

 

Thanks man . 

I know Chris , Don and Tom and I were really on board with the wait and see approach to what this looks like come the fall .

 

We were focusing on how this did not look like an east based event once to the fall rather a basin wide event and then ultimately warmer in the 3.4 region .

 

It looks like it maturing that way and I do agree  when people hear " super El Nino " they automatically assume torch .

 

And that`s not 100 % off the table , but It has been trending towards a colder winter in the SE . I  can only go by the guidance and it keeps the warmer waters in the EPO intact and bakes the entire basin and not just off the coast of SA .

[MJO812]

Godzilla El Nino is coming
http://kfor.com/2015/08/13/experts-say-godzilla-el-nino-may-be-coming/

[donsutherland1]

And pretty much everyone that I have now seen is getting on board with the same direction that you have been talking. I want to thank you cause its only you and a couple others that are looking at the picture as a whole and not just blasting Oh this is going to be the greatest nino of all time. .. 

Whether or not this will be the strongest El Niño on record (my guess remains a +2.1°C peak tri-monthly ONI figure) is one issue. The outcome this winter will depend in large part on numerous variables, including but not limited to the El Niño. That the warmth in the northeast Pacific appears unprecedented during a strong El Niño adds to the complexity. That there has been some indication of a blocky winter (WSI's point about the July AO) is another important possibility. If the strongest blocking coincides with the period when the El Niño is waning, that might allow for widespread cold in eastern North America. It will be fun to see how things turn out.

 

For now, it's too soon to know for sure. Many of the variables including the AO are now well-predicted until one gets almost to December. Earlier promise with the SAI and OPI has faded in a forecasting environment, with each tool proving quite disappointing (last winter, they were disastrously off). Statistical relationships such as the one WSI pointed out may be much stronger signals.

[PB GFI]

Whether or not this will be the strongest El Niño on record (my guess remains a +2.1°C peak tri-monthly ONI figure) is one issue. The outcome this winter will depend in large part on numerous variables, including but not limited to the El Niño. That the warmth in the northeast Pacific appears unprecedented during a strong El Niño adds to the complexity. That there has been some indication of a blocky winter (WSI's point about the July AO) is another important possibility. If the strongest blocking coincides with the period when the El Niño is waning, that might allow for widespread cold in eastern North America. It will be fun to see how things turn out.

Wet and Blocky would be a nice combo . Agreed on the wait and see approach .

[snowman19]

Whether or not this will be the strongest El Niño on record (my guess remains a +2.1°C peak tri-monthly ONI figure) is one issue. The outcome this winter will depend in large part on numerous variables, including but not limited to the El Niño. That the warmth in the northeast Pacific appears unprecedented during a strong El Niño adds to the complexity. That there has been some indication of a blocky winter (WSI's point about the July AO) is another important possibility. If the strongest blocking coincides with the period when the El Niño is waning, that might allow for widespread cold in eastern North America. It will be fun to see how things turn out.

For now, it's too soon to know for sure. Many of the variables including the AO are now well-predicted until one gets almost to December. Earlier promise with the SAI and OPI has faded in a forecasting environment, with each tool proving quite disappointing (last winter, they were disastrously off). Statistical relationships such as the one WSI pointed out may be much stronger signals.

Pretty much my thoughts as well on the tri-monthly peak Don, I'm thinking slightly higher, in the range of +2.2C to +2.4C

[Eduardo]

Sorry for the OT (well....sorta) post, but I just can't emphasize how much I am loving this thread.  In addition to the fact that it's been delivering some positive news lately for those of us who love extreme winter weather, I feel like I've learned a ton just from checking it periodically.  Always exciting when there is a possibility of entering uncharted waters (i.e. Niño flexing its muscles with that NE PAC warm pool continuing to rage)!

 

Threads like these and knowledgeable, civil, level-headed members like you all are what makes this board so great!  Let's keep this high quality of discussion going into and through the winter!

[donsutherland1]

Three quick points:

 

1. August 2015 may be on course to have the most widespread warm anomalies in North America for any case since 1950 when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C or above.

 

2. A profile for cold months during cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C or above entailed the following during December-February: ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly > ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly by +0.5°C or more and the AO averaged -1 or below during the month: 10/13 cases had widespread cold in some part of the East (4/4 in December, 3/6 in January, and 3/3 in February). All 8 cases with such ENSO anomalies that lacked an average AO of -1 or below for the month featured widespread warmth in the East

 

3. A profile that resulted in widespread warmth in the East occurred when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C or more above the Region 3.4 anomaly (December-February). The AO was irrelevant in such cases, as the east-based ENSO overwhelmed the AO, even when the AO was strongly negative.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks man . 

I know Chris , Don and Tom and I were really on board with the wait and see approach to what this looks like come the fall .

 

We were focusing on how this did not look like an east based event once to the fall rather a basin wide event and then ultimately warmer in the 3.4 region .

 

It looks like it maturing that way and I do agree  when people hear " super El Nino " they automatically assume torch .

 

And that`s not 100 % off the table , but It has been trending towards a colder winter in the SE . I  can only go by the guidance and it keeps the warmer waters in the EPO intact and bakes the entire basin and not just off the coast of SA .

I'm usually cautious until the information is more definitive. The strong (possible super) El Niño event, very warm SSTs in the northeast Pacific, and potential blocking presents a particularly interesting and complex scenario. The widespread warmth this August suggests that one should not make early assumptions about the upcoming winter, even as a variety of scenarios is on the proverbial table.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm usually cautious until the information is more definitive. The strong (possible super) El Niño event, very warm SSTs in the northeast Pacific, and potential blocking presents a particularly interesting and complex scenario. The widespread warmth this August suggests that one should not make early assumptions about the upcoming winter, even as a variety of scenarios is on the proverbial table.

It's interesting because we're gonna have a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in this upcoming warm spell. Obviously the PNA is pulling through. This was almost the exact opposite case in 1957-58 (JB's favorite   on Twitter this year)... it was a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO... but the pattern across the US resembled +PNA more than anything else.

 

I think the EPO has really gained traction over the AO and NAO in the past few years... but I think 1957-58 was a great example that it just depends on how it's set up. With that said... you're playing with fire when you have a +EPO... lol.

[snowman19]

It's interesting because we're gonna have a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in this upcoming warm spell. Obviously the PNA is pulling through. This was almost the exact opposite case in 1957-58 (JB's favorite on Twitter this year)... it was a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO... but the pattern across the US resembled +PNA more than anything else.

I think the EPO has really gained traction over the AO and NAO in the past few years... but I think 1957-58 was a great example that it just depends on how it's set up. With that said... you're playing with fire when you have a +EPO... lol.

JB is talking up the +PDO right now. He's hoping the +PDO/warm NE PAC stick around to drive EPO blocking this winter

[ClicheVortex2014]

JB is talking up the +PDO right now. He's hoping the +PDO/warm NE PAC stick around to drive EPO blocking this winter

That comes back to the question... which forcing is stronger; ENSO or the NE Pacific warm pool/PDO? That's, of course, assuming it sticks around. Certainly not a given. Some event seems to be happening in the north Pacific right now, as the warm pool has shifted a bit and something else in the NW. There's still 4 months left for things to change, for better or for worse.

 

[UnionWeatherWx]

That comes back to the question... which forcing is stronger; ENSO or the NE Pacific warm pool/PDO? That's, of course, assuming it sticks around. Certainly not a given. Some event seems to be happening in the north Pacific right now, as the warm pool has shifted a bit and something else in the NW. There's still 4 months left for things to change, for better or for worse.

 

Reasoning for the cold tongue on east end?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Reasoning for the cold tongue on east end?

Dunno but CFS has been indicating a Nino 1+2 crash for a long time... it might finally be happening. Tropicaltidbits says the region hasn't crashed much, despite what it looks like. But it's shown itself to not be very accurate. Good for what it's worth, not to be taken as gospel. We'll find out on Monday.

 

[Animal]

watched the world nightly news tonight. Lots of talk about epic weather coming with the record el nino

 

Sorta of exciting to ponder at a 3 ft dump of snow  in a storm at my house this season.