IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 If that were to happen and it were to be all snow... we could be talking about ft and ft of snowYeah. That's if the phasing happens at the right location and the Northern Stream needs to be just as strong or there will be an early phase, late phase or no phase at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 It will be a great storm for interior sections, I remember 97-98 winter and the big snowstorms were in the interior. If the timing is good and there is blocking maybe the cities will cash in, odds are however those 50 miles north an west of the cities will do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The SOI went negative on July 9 and has now been negative for 35 consecutive days. Interestingly enough, in 1997, the SOI went negative on July 14 and remained negative through September 23, a stretch of 72 consecutive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 The SOI went negative on July 9 and has now been negative for 35 consecutive days. Interestingly enough, in 1997, the SOI went negative on July 14 and remained negative through September 23, a stretch of 72 consecutive days.Don the warming going on right now in region 3.4 is just staggering. Looks like we are going to surpass where we were in 1997 come September. There is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth in that region now and the warm pool continues pressing east with the non stop wwbs and kelvins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Don the warming going on right now in region 3.4 is just staggering. Looks like we are going to surpass where we were in 1997 come September. There is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth in that region now and the warm pool continues pressing east with the non stop wwbs and kelvins Plus 28- 30 C water is stretching around the globe . WOW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 It's too bad this thread isn't on the main page. There's a lot of great information In this thread. I've learned a lot from reading it, including the reason why snowman19 is five posted. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 NOAA is on the verge of barking Super El Niño, they think tri-monthly departures may exceed +2.0C in region 3.4 in their new update today: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 NOAA is on the verge of barking Super El Niño, they think tri-monthly departures may exceed +2.0C in region 3.4 in heir new update today: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Sometimes I don't understand why they don't just go with a 100% chance of something happening. Like, 90% chance of Nino lasting through the winter? Or how about the tornado watch for Alabama on 4/27/11 (95% chance for issuance)... is there really a chance of it not happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Not a terrible look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 New NOAA blog on the developing El Niño if anyone wants to read: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-supercalifragilisticexpealidocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Who's ready for the media circus? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 Who's ready for the media circus? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html Deja vu 1997-1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 LA NINA next summer/winter - so enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 New NOAA blog on the developing El Niño if anyone wants to read: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-supercalifragilisticexpealidocious Interesting they have the peak at late-Fall/early-winter... which means they think JAMSTEC peaks too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter! If you want to see a bunch of strong storms then absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Who's ready for the media circus? http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html Oh yeah. Cats out of the bag. Have been getting texts today about it from non-weather friends. I'm excited. Any extreme weather event is exciting. Even if we don't really know yet how it will translate to sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Living in the big cities and nearby is going to be loads of fun in the winter! Let's hope the -EPO holds its ground. For if it does it would be game on for us not only for the snow potentials, but it would be fascinating to see the magnitude of the storms with an active northern jet and strong southern jet coexisting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Oh yeah. Cats out of the bag. Have been getting texts today about it from non-weather friends. I'm excited. Any extreme weather event is exciting. Even if we don't really know yet how it will translate to sensible weather. Yeah CNN, MSNBC, TWC all reported on it today. Can't wait to see all the misconceptions/pseudo-meteorological claims and terms/parodies/satire related to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 It's too bad this thread isn't on the main page. There's a lot of great information In this thread. I've learned a lot from reading it, including the reason why snowman19 is five posted. lol Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 It would be great if the CA winter forecast works out as well at the summer forecast issued back in April. cahgt_anom.1.gif 500.gif cahgt_anom.4.gif Forgive if im looking at this wrong but is that a -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)? Because Canada's "well above average" is still "well below average" for the east US. For example... Winnipeg's average high in January is -0.6F. Add 4 degrees to that, or even 10 degrees, that's still what we would call frigid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Because Canada's "well above average" is still "well below average" for the east US. I know, it's all relative, but I just thought a warmer (though still ice cold) Canada would mean that the cold air entering the U.S. would be more moderate than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I have a hard time wrapping my head around Canada (our source of cold air) being well above normal while the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast is below normal. It just sounds odd to me, where would the "colder than normal" air even come from if Canada is on fire (relatively speaking)? Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE. So it heads through the lakes . So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow . So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 SD above in Manitoba is cold enough here. So the departures from normal are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow. All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes. They are forced to the east coast. Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well. So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Don't look at that , those are temp anamolies , look at the 500 mb map That air in Canada is cold enough . It's NYC cold. It may be not be below normal cold in central Canada but when you see ridges on the west coast the " cold enough " air has to get funneled SE. So it heads through the lakes . So relative to averages at 500 it's showing you the direction of the cold airs flow . So what 2 below in the SE isn't all that cold here. But what's 1 to 2 above in Manitoba is cold enough here. So the departures from normal are colder relative to averages the further S you go , but that's a positive. You don't need frigid to snow. All that blocking means you will not see many storms to the lakes. They are forced to the east coast. Too much blocking and you shift the wetter anamolies south as well. So that blocky look at 500 is a what you want to see. Thanks for the explanation, the maps I've seen were throwing me off a bit, but it makes more sense to me now. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 If you want to see a bunch of strong storms then absolutely. The question is will they be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Here's info about all 10 of the strongest Ninos; SST anomalies, 300mb meridional winds and 1000mb temp anomalies. http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Here's info about all 10 of the strongest Ninos; SST anomalies, 300mb meridional winds and 1000mb temp anomalies. http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html If the blog is inferring that 1997-98 was only the 4th strongest El Niño event of the 19th and 20th centuries, that is wrong. The tri-monthly ONI for 1997-98 is highest, 1982-83 is 2nd highest, and 1877-78 is 3rd highest. Using the MEI, which really assesses ENSO impact, not direct ENSO strength, 1982-83 ranks 1st, 1997-98 2nd, and 1877-78 3rd. Also, one other error in the blog: ERSST v.4 goes back to 1854, not 1850 (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v4.html) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 The question is will they be snow. The real question is where these storms track. Do storms track up the Appalachians this winter, bringing heavy snow to the interior and rain for the East Coast? Do they track up the coast, bringing snow to the Northeast? Or, do they track further south and east, bringing snow to the South? There's plenty of wiggle room between these scenarios too. Last winter, NYC barely missed out on the big snows. Climatology favors the first scenario. Teleconnections and computer models can give us a rough idea a week or so out. But ultimately, we will know little until a few days before a storm hits. As last year's January blizzard demonstrated, a storm's track is not definitively known even within hours of the storm's onset. I think what is known now is that there will likely be opportunities for storm development this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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