ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Wow what a Harmonious board here this morning , a very RARE feat here . After seeing last years + AO winter performance around here , I have come to appreciate how just one piece in the GRAND puzzle can undermine analogs and forecasts . The same rule may apply here .The sample size is small ,but keep in mind the entire evolution will likely hinge on a piece that may not be seen until late fall or early winter . I'm of the belief that, due to the strength of the Nino, the EPO is going to trump the AO/NAO yet again because of how strong the Aleutian low is expected to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 This is crazy, there is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth now in region 3.4 Link: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/631105727008894977 Also, this current wwb has become stronger than the one in July and it just keeps pushing the warm pool further east: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/631115258250309632 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 For the first time since June 2012, the Trans-Nino Index is positive 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.8442012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.5152013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.0772014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.1172015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.153 0.121 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/ There's a positive correlation between the TNI and US tornadoes: http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The most impressive July SST stat was the new record for the North Pacific east of 180 from the Equator to Alaska. This record warm July SST pattern easily eclipsed the 1957 developing El Nino summer which had the previous record. SST.png this year will be in a class by itself when it comes to looking at possible analogs...the bottom line is how much snowfall we get and how cold it is this winter in our area...this year could give us the greatest snowfall in years or no snow at all...all we need is one great snowstorm to make the winter worthwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The most impressive July SST stat was the new record for the North Pacific east of 180 from the Equator to Alaska. This record warm July SST pattern easily eclipsed the 1957 developing El Nino summer which had the previous record. SST.png Some plus 4 C there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Some plus 4 C there A closer look Chris , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The super nino of 1997-98 was not bad for the interior. horrible for the coast and around the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The super nino of 1997-98 was not bad for the interior. horrible for the coast and around the big cities. It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 The temps were above normal but outside of the big cities in the east snowfall was'nt bad for many. It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18". It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC with some good news I hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 JAMSTEC with some good news I hear? Yup... it cooled most of the east US compared to July, yet still has a super Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2015 Author Share Posted August 12, 2015 Yup... it cooled most of the east US compared to July, yet still has a super Nino It is all by itself showing a September peak no other models are doing that and it's also suggesting insane warming in 3.4 that I don't think is possible that fast even at the current pace. Over +2.5C between now and September? I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 The DJF SST profile on the JAMSTEC looks EXACTLY like the NMME and the Euro seasonal. Keep in mind J thru M appears colder than D thru F in the guidance . So the JAMSTEC is even colder In the NE earlier. So it's early peak is probably an error , but if you extrapolate the peak into O N like the Euro and CFS show then you will get that 2M profile in J thru M And that would match up with the other guidance. Chris pointed out yesterday how warm the water is in the EPO region , the new JAMSTEC is slightly warmer in the region than what it saw in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2015 Author Share Posted August 12, 2015 The DJF SST profile on the JAMSTEC looks EXACTLY like the NMME and the Euro seasonal. Keep in mind J thru M appears colder than D thru F in the guidance . So the JAMSTEC is even colder In the NE earlier. So it's early peak is probably an error , but if you extrapolate the peak into O N like the Euro and CFS show then you will get that 2M profile in J thru M And that would match up with the other guidance. Chris pointed out yesterday how warm the water is in the EPO region , the new JAMSTEC is slightly warmer in the region than what it saw in July. PB, I agree that early peak is an error cause it's all on its own showing it, but the real crazy thing that stands out big time is it suggesting a record breaking +2.5C Super El Niño that fast. Does it skew the rest of its forecast? Bad initialization maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 PB, I agree that early peak is an error cause it's all on its own showing it, but the real crazy thing that stands out big time is it suggesting a record breaking +2.5C Super El Niño that fast. Does it skew the rest of its forecast? Bad initialization maybe? The euro guidance seems warm as well. I am on here since May saying 1.9 peak in the tri monthly and it looks like 2 is a good bet , so it's warmer than what I thought. It looks like it initialized OK , it just sees a spike in the 3.4 region , which as you know I would be happy with. But probably overdone and it's September peak is to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2015 Author Share Posted August 12, 2015 The euro guidance seems warm as well. I am on here since May saying 1.9 peak in the tri monthly and it looks like 2 is a good bet , so it's warmer than what I thought. It looks like it initialized OK , it just sees a spike in the 3.4 region , which as you know I would be happy with. But probably overdone and it's September peak is to early. Agreed. I think it's possible that it really does peak out at +2.5C around November or something, September is too early, it would have to warm a lot faster than it is now. The Euro is showing a similar high peak too, just later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Bob Tisdale created a great chart showing the progress of that record warm pool off the US PAC NW Coast. 02-blob-time-series.png Now lets hold that look into O - N with a Super NINO and then we may be onto something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Yup... it cooled most of the east US compared to July, yet still has a super Nino I would take this in a heartbeat... A super Nino with a -EPO and maybe a -AO. The STJ looks fired up as well, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 CFS's August update is in... didn't change that much. Region 1+2 is still too cool at initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 CFS's August update is in... didn't change that much. Region 1+2 is still too cool at initialization The CFS is still having some issues, but it improved a tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 12, 2015 Author Share Posted August 12, 2015 CFS's August update is in... didn't change that much. Region 1+2 is still too cool at initialization The region 1+2 forecasts have been horrible, way, way off and too cool and it's been almost equally as bad in region 4, it keeps showing region 4 being too warm and also showing warming that hasn't happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 The region 1+2 forecasts have been horrible, way, way off and too cool and it's been almost equally as bad in region 4, it keeps showing region 4 being too warm and also showing warming that hasn't happened. I wish we could see JAMSTEC's forecast for each Nino region, like CFS. It's impossible to know when it expects something to happen... and you don't know how it initialized. I have a feeling it's doing the same thing as CFS; being too anxious to warm Nino 4, being too anxious to cool Nino 1+2. But there's no way of knowing for sure. How long is this gonna go on? When are they finally gonna wake up? Hope it happens before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 El Niño recently led to flooding rains and landslides in Argentina and Chile. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/worst-el-nino-in-30-years-pounds-south-american-economies-polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I would take this in a heartbeat... A super Nino with a -EPO and maybe a -AO. The STJ looks fired up as well, as expected. While JAMSTEC did do well last year... it missed the +AO/+NAO. CFS managed to catch that, but didn't catch the extreme GOA warm pool, which I think is the reason why it was so far off. I think that's true for 2013-14 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Seems as though the southern Andes are kicking some booty http://www.tetongravity.com/story/ski/el-nino-bringing-it-august-snow-update-for-south-america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 Interesting Dr. Ventrice is a genius as far as ENSO, best expert on the subject by far. If he thinks this El Niño is going to top 1997-1998 you need to listen. He is absolutely convinced this one is going to be the strongest ever on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Dr. Ventrice is a genius as far as ENSO, best expert on the subject by far. If he thinks this El Niño is going to top 1997-1998 you need to listen. He is absolutely convinced this one is going to be the strongest ever on record You know something, the more I think about it this Nino is becoming so powerful, there's bound to be one heck of a storm we will be dealing with sometime this winter. That southern jet is going to mean business. Just imagine if that ever phases with the northern jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 You know something, the more I think about it this Nino is becoming so powerful, there's bound to be one heck of a storm we will be dealing with sometime this winter. That southern jet is going to mean business. Just imagine if that ever phases with the northern jet.It might be beyond explosive. Michael Bay would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 It might be beyond explosive. Michael Bay would be proud. If that were to happen and it were to be all snow... we could be talking about ft and ft of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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