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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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Wow what a Harmonious board here this morning , a very RARE feat here . 

 

After seeing last years + AO winter performance around here , I have come to appreciate how just one piece in the GRAND puzzle can undermine analogs and forecasts .

 

The same rule may apply here .The sample size is small ,but keep in mind the entire evolution will likely hinge 

on a piece that may not be seen until late fall or early winter . 

I'm of the belief that, due to the strength of the Nino, the EPO is going to trump the AO/NAO yet again because of how strong the Aleutian low is expected to be. 

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This is crazy, there is a 30C isotherm showing up at depth now in region 3.4 Link: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/631105727008894977 Also, this current wwb has become stronger than the one in July and it just keeps pushing the warm pool further east: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/631115258250309632

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For the first time since June 2012, the Trans-Nino Index is positive
 

 

2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844
2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515
2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077
2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117
2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.153 0.121 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990
 
 
There's a positive correlation between the TNI and US tornadoes: 
sZBs4PH.gif
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The most impressive July SST stat was the new record for the North Pacific east of 180

from the Equator to Alaska. This record warm July SST pattern easily eclipsed

the 1957 developing El Nino summer which had the previous record.

 

attachicon.gifSST.png

this year will be in a class by itself when it comes to looking at possible analogs...the bottom line is how much snowfall we get and how cold it is this winter in our area...this year could give us the greatest snowfall in years or no snow at all...all we need is one great snowstorm to make the winter worthwhile...

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The most impressive July SST stat was the new record for the North Pacific east of 180

from the Equator to Alaska. This record warm July SST pattern easily eclipsed

the 1957 developing El Nino summer which had the previous record.

 

attachicon.gifSST.png

 

Some plus 4 C there 

post-7472-0-58911600-1439311893_thumb.pn

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The super nino of 1997-98 was not bad for the interior. horrible for the coast and around the big cities.

It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18".

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The temps were above normal but outside of the big cities in the east snowfall was'nt bad for many.

 

It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18".

 

 

It was a torchy winter for Cincinnati... December ended +2.1, January ended +10.5, February ended +8.7. Yet we managed to get 2x our normal snowfall (~12") thanks mostly to an early February snowstorm that dumped 18".

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Yup... it cooled most of the east US compared to July, yet still has a super Nino

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

2AFHdtU.gif

It is all by itself showing a September peak no other models are doing that and it's also suggesting insane warming in 3.4 that I don't think is possible that fast even at the current pace. Over +2.5C between now and September? I don't think so
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The DJF SST profile on the JAMSTEC looks EXACTLY like the NMME and the Euro seasonal.

Keep in mind J thru M appears colder than D thru F in the guidance .

So the JAMSTEC is even colder In the NE earlier. So it's early peak is probably an error , but if you extrapolate the peak into O N like the Euro and CFS show then you will get that 2M profile in J thru M

And that would match up with the other guidance.

Chris pointed out yesterday how warm the water is in the EPO region , the new JAMSTEC is slightly warmer in the region than what it saw in July.

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The DJF SST profile on the JAMSTEC looks EXACTLY like the NMME and the Euro seasonal.

Keep in mind J thru M appears colder than D thru F in the guidance .

So the JAMSTEC is even colder In the NE earlier. So it's early peak is probably an error , but if you extrapolate the peak into O N like the Euro and CFS show then you will get that 2M profile in J thru M

And that would match up with the other guidance.

Chris pointed out yesterday how warm the water is in the EPO region , the new JAMSTEC is slightly warmer in the region than what it saw in July.

PB, I agree that early peak is an error cause it's all on its own showing it, but the real crazy thing that stands out big time is it suggesting a record breaking +2.5C Super El Niño that fast. Does it skew the rest of its forecast? Bad initialization maybe?
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PB, I agree that early peak is an error cause it's all on its own showing it, but the real crazy thing that stands out big time is it suggesting a record breaking +2.5C Super El Niño that fast. Does it skew the rest of its forecast? Bad initialization maybe?

The euro guidance seems warm as well. I am on here since May saying 1.9 peak in the tri monthly and it looks like 2 is a good bet , so it's warmer than what I thought.

It looks like it initialized OK , it just sees a spike in the 3.4 region , which as you know I would be happy with. But probably overdone and it's September peak is to early.

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The euro guidance seems warm as well. I am on here since May saying 1.9 peak in the tri monthly and it looks like 2 is a good bet , so it's warmer than what I thought.

It looks like it initialized OK , it just sees a spike in the 3.4 region , which as you know I would be happy with. But probably overdone and it's September peak is to early.

Agreed. I think it's possible that it really does peak out at +2.5C around November or something, September is too early, it would have to warm a lot faster than it is now. The Euro is showing a similar high peak too, just later
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CFS's August update is in... didn't change that much. Region 1+2 is still too cool at initialization

pmn484O.png

5btXcp4.png

3IKk7y3.gif

The region 1+2 forecasts have been horrible, way, way off and too cool and it's been almost equally as bad in region 4, it keeps showing region 4 being too warm and also showing warming that hasn't happened.
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The region 1+2 forecasts have been horrible, way, way off and too cool and it's been almost equally as bad in region 4, it keeps showing region 4 being too warm and also showing warming that hasn't happened.

I wish we could see JAMSTEC's forecast for each Nino region, like CFS. It's impossible to know when it expects something to happen... and you don't know how it initialized. I have a feeling it's doing the same thing as CFS; being too anxious to warm Nino 4, being too anxious to cool Nino 1+2. But there's no way of knowing for sure. How long is this gonna go on? When are they finally gonna wake up? :wacko: Hope it happens before November.

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I would take this in a heartbeat... A super Nino with a -EPO and maybe a -AO. The STJ looks fired up as well, as expected.

While JAMSTEC did do well last year... it missed the +AO/+NAO. CFS managed to catch that, but didn't catch the extreme GOA warm pool, which I think is the reason why it was so far off. I think that's true for 2013-14 too.

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Dr. Ventrice is a genius as far as ENSO, best expert on the subject by far. If he thinks this El Niño is going to top 1997-1998 you need to listen. He is absolutely convinced this one is going to be the strongest ever on record

 

You know something, the more I think about it this Nino is becoming so powerful, there's bound to be one heck of a storm we will be dealing with sometime this winter. That southern jet is going to mean business. Just imagine if that ever phases with the northern jet.

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You know something, the more I think about it this Nino is becoming so powerful, there's bound to be one heck of a storm we will be dealing with sometime this winter. That southern jet is going to mean business. Just imagine if that ever phases with the northern jet.

It might be beyond explosive. Michael Bay would be proud.
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