Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Yanksfan]

A very nice WSI blog suggesting that July's strong blocking might be hinting at a blocky winter:

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Very interesting read Don. I don't recall any past analogies of strong El Nino coupled -EPO/-NAO. Still way too early to tell, but we could be entering into uncharted waters with this potential ominous setup.

[easternsnowman]

A very nice WSI blog suggesting that July's strong blocking might be hinting at a blocky winter:

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Thanks Don for your unbiased information and facts. There is much more to this coming winter then just the strength of this el nino, but one thing we do need is blocking to have a decent winter at least for the cities and nearby burbs, the interior sections do not have the same problem

[mitchnick]

A very nice WSI blog suggesting that July's strong blocking might be hinting at a blocky winter:

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

HM posted some correlations....tasty!

https://twitter.com/antmasiello

[ClicheVortex2014]

You know what has a 1:1 correlation with a -AO/-NAO DJF? 

 

A -AO/-NAO DJF

 

 

This reminds me so much of the talk over SAI and that other index he created (October something something?)

[Morris]

HM posted some correlations....tasty!

https://twitter.com/antmasiello

Those are very high.

[donsutherland1]

For more on the AO, here is a list of all the years (1950-2015) that saw the AO average -0.500 or below in July and the subsequent December-February average.

 

 

It is encouraging that strong July blocking has often been followed by blocky winters (86% of the above July cases vs. 62% of winters in the 1950-51 through 2014-15 period). Nevertheless, it should be noted that the forecasting the AO's predominant winter state remains challenging, especially as some widely publicized tools have not fared as well as they did in hindcasting when applied to a forecasting environment. 

[snowman19]

Very interesting read Don. I don't recall any past analogies of strong El Nino coupled -EPO/-NAO. Still way too early to tell, but we could be entering into uncharted waters with this potential ominous setup.

There has never been a super El Niño along with a -EPO, ever. Again, before people start breaking out the champaign bottles, wait and see what happens this fall. Depending on something happening that has never been seen before will only lead to disappointment if it doesn't happen. Wait and see...

[Yanksfan]

There has never been a super El Niño along with a -EPO, ever. Again, before people start breaking out the champaign bottles, wait and see what happens this fall. Depending on something happening that has never been seen before will only lead to disappointment if it doesn't happen. Wait and see...

I'm just giving a potential scenario playing out. I know just like most of us in this forum agrees that a strong or super El Nino  usually spells doom and gloom for the winter. We need the warmest waters to be in regions 3.4 and 4 for us to have a shot for a snowy winter. That would hold the -EPO in place. The interesting blog that Don shows only adds fuel to the fire. The next few months will be telling.

[thunderbolt]

There has never been a super El Niño along with a -EPO, ever. Again, before people start breaking out the champaign bottles, wait and see what happens this fall. Depending on something happening that has never been seen before will only lead to disappointment if it doesn't happen. Wait and see...

[uncle W]

after seeing 50" of snow last year with a raging positive ao anything is possible...I'm not ruling anything out...

[mitchnick]

after seeing 50" of snow last year with a raging positive ao anything is possible...I'm not ruling anything out...

I'm with you unc

2 years ago everything looked bad "on paper" as late as fall in the MA, but we ended up with well above normal snowfall and a cold winter, not that last year was any slouch either in the end (but nothing like you guys)

[Yanksfan]

One has to wonder what kind of winter we would have... I'm speaking in terms of NYC metro if everything fell into place for us. Our EL Nino is western based and goes super along with a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. We could be line with snow totals like Boston had last year. Probably won't happen but its good to dream!

[snowman19]

One has to wonder what kind of winter we would have... I'm speaking in terms of NYC metro if everything fell into place for us. Our EL Nino is western based and goes super along with a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. We could be line with snow totals like Boston had last year. Probably won't happen but its good to dream!

If we do see a -EPO kudos to bluewave and PBGFI for calling it. It would be the 1st ever that we know of

[PB GFI]

JOE D`ALEO 

 

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far."

 

I will be the first to say , non of the above get me all warm and fuzzy .

 

One positive may be we don`t get to super status , but the others in the sample size are not exactly powerhouses .  After seeing 70 inches of snow last year with mostly a pos AO . 

Anything is possible . 

 

Still early . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

One has to wonder what kind of winter we would have... I'm speaking in terms of NYC metro if everything fell into place for us. Our EL Nino is western based and goes super along with a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. We could be line with snow totals like Boston had last year. Probably won't happen but its good to dream!

There's no guidance that suggests a west-based Nino though.

[Isotherm]

JOE D`ALEO 

 

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far."

 

I will be the first to say , non of the above get me all warm and fuzzy .

 

One positive may be we don`t get to super status , but the others in the sample size are not exactly powerhouses .  After seeing 70 inches of snow last year with mostly a pos AO . 

Anything is possible . 

 

Still early . 

 

 

Why the exclusion of 1957 as an analog?

[PB GFI]

Why the exclusion of 1957 as an analog?

I don`t know - I  will ask 

[PB GFI]

Why the exclusion of 1957 as an analog?

Response 

 

Still there, but right now, ranked a bit lower. 

[PB GFI]

What's the deal with their ECMWF contract that they don't make the ECMWF seasonal stuff available with the

EPS weeklies? The ECMWF site shows many regions including South America but leaves NOAM

and Eurasia out.

 

 

I am not sure . Cost prohibitive ?  

[ClicheVortex2014]

Some images to share

 

 

 

[snowman19]

JOE D`ALEO

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far."

I will be the first to say , non of the above get me all warm and fuzzy .

One positive may be we don`t get to super status , but the others in the sample size are not exactly powerhouses . After seeing 70 inches of snow last year with mostly a pos AO .

Anything is possible .

Still early .

I'm guessing Joe D'Aleo is going with '82-'83 and '97-'98 as his main analogs if this Nino goes super in the fall PB?

[griteater]

JOE D`ALEO 

 

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far."

 

I haven't seen Joe's write-up, but that particular wording is straight from the Aug. 4 MEI Update (Discussion and Comparison section) - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[PB GFI]

I'm guessing Joe D'Aleo is going with '82-'83 and '97-'98 as his main analogs if this Nino goes super in the fall PB?

 

 

Not sure .  But it will depend on what the 3.4 region looks like and what the 1.2 region looks like etc

These regions are factors , but not  the only ones .

 

I can`t speak for Joe , but I am sure if the Tri Monthly goes much higher than the 1.9 he thinks , then he may

reconsider . 

[Brian5671]

I'm guessing Joe D'Aleo is going with '82-'83 and '97-'98 as his main analogs if this Nino goes super in the fall PB?

that would be ugly.  Sure we got the one blizzard, but overall, those were two torchy wet winters.

[snowman19]

Here is a comparison to the current sea surface height anomaly with where we were back in 1997 at this time: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/629475000429342720

[Yanksfan]

Here is a comparison to the current sea surface height anomaly with where we were back in 1997 at this time: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/629475000429342720

From the looks at that comparison depending on how our EPO ends up, we will either have an epic winter or epic torch.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, to have some shot at forecasting the upcoming winter, one will need to have an idea of among the following:

 

1. El Niño strength: Strong looks very likely; super is still on the table..\

 

2. Distribution and evolution of the warmest anomalies in what appears to be a basin-wide event: Guidance leans toward R3.4.

 

anomalies exceeding R1+2 ones, but R1+2 could be warm. A better idea should be available during the fall.

 

3. PNA: With the persistent PDO+ and tendency for some El Niño winters to favor a PDO+, a PNA+ set-up seems more likely than not.

 

4. AO: Thanks to WSI's research, there is an above climatological probability of an AO- winter. The predominant AO state is difficult to forecast, so one will have to see how things evolve with regard to the AO as meteorological winter approaches. Earlier much touted tools such as the SAI and OPI have failed during the last two years and spectacularly last winter. Those tools likely rest on relationships that are weaker than had been envisioned when the tools looked good in a hindcasting environment. Strength of the AO- will be important, as the 1997-98 El Niño event overwhelmed the blocking that occurred during that winter. At the same time, the historic blocking during winter 2009-10 dominated the hemispheric pattern. Difficult as predicting the predominant AO state is, trying to reasonably estimate the strength of the blocking is all but impossible. None of the literature suggests that strength of blocking can be predicted with reasonable accuracy beyond 10-15 days.

 

5. EPO: As winter approaches, Gulf of Alaska SSTAs could provide important insight.

 

For now, at least for me, it's too soon to speculate on temperature anomaly distributions or seasonal snowfall in much of the East. If pressed, my starting point is 1965-66 for general outcomes, but I can't rule out a warmer, less snowy outcome right now.

[bluewave]

From the looks at that comparison depending on how our EPO ends up, we will either have an epic winter or epic torch.

 

It really goes to show how a subtle a shift in the Aleutian low can make such a big difference with a stronger event.

You can see how the CA idea of just enough ridging near NW Canada provides a source of cold for the east along 

the edge of the very strong STJ. The Aleutian low was too far NE in 83 and 98 so they were mild winters, but we

got lucky in February 1983. 

 

 

[snowman19]

IMO, to have some shot at forecasting the upcoming winter, one will need to have an idea of among the following:

1. El Niño strength: Strong looks very likely; super is still on the table..\

2. Distribution and evolution of the warmest anomalies in what appears to be a basin-wide event: Guidance leans toward R3.4.

anomalies exceeding R1+2 ones, but R1+2 could be warm. A better idea should be available during the fall.

3. PNA: With the persistent PDO+ and tendency for some El Niño winters to favor a PDO+, a PNA+ set-up seems more likely than not.

4. AO: Thanks to WSI's research, there is an above climatological probability of an AO- winter. The predominant AO state is difficult to forecast, so one will have to see how things evolve with regard to the AO as meteorological winter approaches. Earlier much touted tools such as the SAI and OPI have failed during the last two years and spectacularly last winter. Those tools likely rest on relationships that are weaker than had been envisioned when the tools looked good in a hindcasting environment. Strength of the AO- will be important, as the 1997-98 El Niño event overwhelmed the blocking that occurred during that winter. At the same time, the historic blocking during winter 2009-10 dominated the hemispheric pattern. Difficult as predicting the predominant AO state is, trying to reasonably estimate the strength of the blocking is all but impossible. None of the literature suggests that strength of blocking can be predicted with reasonable accuracy beyond 10-15 days.

5. EPO: As winter approaches, Gulf of Alaska SSTAs could provide important insight.

For now, at least for me, it's too soon to speculate on temperature anomaly distributions or seasonal snowfall in much of the East. If pressed, my starting point is 1965-66 for general outcomes, but I can't rule out a warmer, less snowy outcome right now.

I noticed in that article Don, they found little if any correlation with the NAO

[PB GFI]

I noticed in that article Don, they found little if any correlation with the NAO

Are you referring to Todd Crawford piece ?