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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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87-88 might be a prime analog for this winter, actually. I know a lot of people have mentioned 86-87 but 87-88 might be better.

Lets wait until September, if there is a super El Niño in place at that point, they would both become incredibly horrible outliers as analogs
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The official CPC July numbers are in. Cooler in all Nino regions than 1997 except for the Nino 4 west region.

Nino 4 just set a new record warmest reading for July beating the previous record year of 2002.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii

............1+2.....3....4....3.4

2015 7 2.27 1.61 0.83 1.21

1997 7 3.32 1.93 0.61 1.44

Warmest July Nino 4 temperatures since 1950:

2015...0.83

2002...0.77

1997...0.61

1994...0.58

1991...0.57

1987...0.56

Hmmm....interesting. Thanks for the update Bluewave.
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Sure. The interesting thing for tracking on a weekly basis is that the final monthly number is often different

from what the weekly updates show. The official monthly number that will go into the trimonthly reading

often runs lower in El Nino events than the weeklies show. This was the case in July where the weekly

readings were 1.5...1.7..1.6..1.7 and the official July number came in at 1.21. The first +2C or greater

monthly reading in the 97-98 event was October. The reading was a lower 2.25 than the weekly

temperatures of 2.6...2.5...2.6...2.6. So we may need to see the weekly readings reach 2.3 or 2.4

averaged over a month to reach the official 2.0 monthly reading.

That may be attainable before at least October or November.
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1987 could be an analog for this fall and winter but the winter was front loaded...January 1988 was cold and snowy but the other months weren't...There was 1-4" from the November 11th storm...Two storms in early January followed by single digit cold...There was only 3" of snow after January that year with major thaws and a warm March...

cd100.33.44.93.216.8.27.17.prcp.png

cd100.33.44.93.216.8.41.3.prcp.png

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a couple things about 87/88 that give me pause, even though I agree this year is similar

first, the prior year (86/87) was an solid moderate NINO vs. last year being a warm neutral

second, even though this year started cooler than 1987 did, this year will certainly surpass the 87/88 numbers

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

so I guess I don't know how much guidance it can give us at this point

fwiw, QBO this year looks similar to 87/88 but the sun was coming off its low a year or 2 earlier and headed upward

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August 4th MEI Update

"While the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998.

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far.

El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December through February 2015."

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...everything you posted supports my point.

 

You posted " there is nothing that supports this being a west based el nino " 

 

Everything I posted points to this going basin wide and evolving  into a warmer 3.4 region on the back end  .

87 was west based and this is evolving that way . 

1997 was east based and that is what we are basing some of  the disco and it`s differences  here .

 

This is different in that the 1.2 region cools very fast and the warmer waters migrate west once into the fall evolving this into a western el nino event  . 

 

 

Did I read your post wrong ? I assumed you were implying this was an east based event and staying that way once into 0 - D

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You posted " there is nothing that supports this being a west based el nino "

Everything I posted points to this going basin wide and evolving into a warmer 3.4 region on the back end .

87 was west based and this is evolving that way .

1997 was east based and that is what we are basing some of the disco and it`s differences here .

This is different in that the 1.2 region cools very fast and the warmer waters migrate west once into the fall evolving this into a western el nino event .

Did I read your post wrong ? I assumed you were implying this was an east based event and staying that way once into 0 - D

Yeah you read my post wrong. Everything's pointing toward a central-based or basin-wide Nino right now. Nino 4 should be quite a bit cooler than regions 3 and 3.4... and it might be cooler than 1+2. That's not similar to 87-88 in the least
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Yeah you read my post wrong. Everything's pointing toward a central-based or basin-wide Nino right now. Nino 4 should be quite a bit cooler than regions 3 and 3.4... and it might be cooler than 1+2. That's not similar to 87-88 in the least

 

This goes Basin wide , but once you cool the 1.2 region off ( and that slope is steep on both the CFSV2 once into Aug  and on the JAMSTEC in the 3.4 region in Jan   ),as  the models continues to show strengthening in  the 3.4 region through N -D .

 

There is no doubt this is basin wide first , but the 1.2 region will cool the fastest as the western regions continue to warm .

By the time we get to O-D The 3.4 region should be the warmest of the entire basin . 

 

The main disagreement here we have had with some is that some continue to think this matures like 97 and I see now signs 

of this being east based come late fall .

 

Where the western edges of the warmest waters will be , will be known by S -O

But I have come down on the side that the 3.4 region will be warmer than the 1.2 region , just in time for winter . The models look to agree 

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A full basin event shifted west like the ECMWF , NMME, and CCA could have a similar atmospheric response

as a Modoki. When Nino 4 gets to around 1C or warmer we often get a -EPO instead of the more east based

event with generally produces a +EPO. The key will be how warm Nino 4 actually gets and the EPO response.

A really warm Nino 3.4 could work in our favor if the western edge of greatest warming extends back into

Nino 4. We'll just have to wait and see how things evolve the next several months.

I hope this occurs. That -EPO needs to stay put. And like you said even if the 3.4 region gets warm as along the western edge is as well we should be fine.

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A full basin event shifted west like the ECMWF , NMME, and CCA could have a similar atmospheric response

as a Modoki. When Nino 4 gets to around 1C or warmer we often get a -EPO instead of the more east based

event with generally produces a +EPO. The key will be how warm Nino 4 actually gets and the EPO response.

A really warm Nino 3.4 could work in our favor if the western edge of greatest warming extends back into

Nino 4. We'll just have to wait and see how things evolve the next several months.

Good post Chris. I agree

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This goes Basin wide , but once you cool the 1.2 region off ( and that slope is steep on both the CFSV2 once into Aug  and on the JAMSTEC in the 3.4 region in Jan   ),as  the models continues to show strengthening in  the 3.4 region through N -D .

 

There is no doubt this is basin wide first , but the 1.2 region will cool the fastest as the western regions continue to warm .

By the time we get to O-D The 3.4 region should be the warmest of the entire basin . 

 

The main disagreement here we have had with some is that some continue to think this matures like 97 and I see now signs 

of this being east based come late fall .

 

Where the western edges of the warmest waters will be , will be known by S -O

But I have come down on the side that the 3.4 region will be warmer than the 1.2 region , just in time for winter . The models look to agree 

Yeah, unless there's a series of major WWBs, this isn't gonna be an east-based Nino. Or unless the models are overshooting regions 3.4 and 3 by over 1C (lol)

 

I think the biggest wild card in the Nino category is what happens to region 4. It's really been struggling to warm over the past few months. Most recent CFS update says Nino 4 will warm at a slower pace than the previous update... as a result, it dropped the peak by 0.5C. What happens after that is anyone's guess. CFS has the Nino cooling the most from the west, progressing east. JAMSTEC's July update has the east cooling the most, pushing west. The August update for CANSIPS has the center of the Nino cooling the most, spreading both ways but most to the west.

 

JAMSTEC pretty much nailed last winter back in July... so I'm paying more attention to it. I'm excited for the August update... should be here in a week and a half. In the mean time... I've got severe weather to track ;)

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CV. Some good points. I see the muted 4 region over the last 4 weeks , I was just looking at the greatest heat potential and this looks to me to come back up .

I think the JAMSTEC should update by Aug 10 and I am curious to see if it's eats into the EPO region.

Hang around here long enough and you will see most of us beat the EPO region to death.

I do favor the modiki look come D and I suspect a wet winter is in tap for the EC.

All that warn EC water may hurt us early on but once past Jan 15 that warm water off the EC will be our fuel for deepening systems .

It's still early , but I agree this is going basin wide firsy and then we will have to look in S-O where we stand.

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CV. Some good points. I see the muted 4 region over the last 4 weeks , I was just looking at the greatest heat potential and this looks to me to come back up .

I think the JAMSTEC should update by Aug 10 and I am curious to see if it's eats into the EPO region.

Hang around here long enough and you will see most of us beat the EPO region to death.

I do favor the modiki look come D and I suspect a wet winter is in tap for the EC.

All that warn EC water may hurt us early on but once past Jan 15 that warm water off the EC will be our fuel for deepening systems .

It's still early , but I agree this is going basin wide firsy and then we will have to look in S-O where we stand.

And the warm pool is also going to get a lot of attention. It weakened substantially between July 20-25, then warmed up again afterward. 

 

I was curious if the atmosphere was responsible for this cool/warm phase... so I did a bit of research. (I did this last night, posted on Accuweather forums)

 

First, I got the rough coordinates of the warm pool before the cooling... then the rough coordinates of the warm pool after it warmed. Then I went to the reanalysis and subtracted the 500mb geopotential height anomaly during the "warming period" from the "cooling period". So positive anomaly means the heights were higher during the period of cooling than the period of warming.

 

EEivjlB.gif

 

So my conclusion is that it wasn't caused by the atmosphere... my guess is that it was from the currents. I'm guessing it would be the Oyashio current.

 

Anyway... I think it just proves how quick things can change. We already have a -PDO signature in the west Pacific with the warm tongue extending east from Japan... and there are some signs that the warm pool could be gone by winter time. CFS is certainly most aggressive with this... but JAMSTEC has it weakening with time. 

 

Another thought I had is if the fact that the CFS is so aggressive with the NE Pacific cooling is the reason why it's the coolest in Nino region 4.

aaqPdjc.gif

 

Besides the point of the research, I thought it was interesting to plot how the warm pool has evolved in just under 2 weeks.

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The equatorial SOI is now lower than 1997, 2nd month in a row, records set 2 months in a row for that index: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/628992395431006208The wwbs have done their "damage" as well, the warm pool continues pushing east, this almost certainly guarantees a big time spike in regions 3.4, 3 and possibly 1+2 as well over the next month. You can see the eastward progression here: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/628960242139664387

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The equatorial SOI is now lower than 1997, 2nd month in a row, records set 2 months in a row for that index: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/628992395431006208The wwbs have done their "damage" as well, the warm pool continues pushing east, this almost certainly guarantees a big time spike in regions 3.4, 3 and possibly 1+2 as well over the next month. You can see the eastward progression here: https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/628960242139664387

I've heard you say that over and over.

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Interesting to see a continuation of the warm anomalies off the East Coast. Good storm fuel and opens the door to a plethora of other blocking scenarios worldwide.

You make a good point. Everyone is talking about El Nino and the EPO, which make no mistake will be telling on how winter will turn out. However, the Atlantic will be a big wildcard player. We are overdue for a -NAO winter time regime. It will be an interesting few months coming up to see how everything evolves.

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You make a good point. Everyone is talking about El Nino and the EPO, which make no mistake will be telling on how winter will turn out. However, the Atlantic will be a big wildcard player. We are overdue for a -NAO winter time regime. It will be an interesting few months coming up to see how everything evolves.

It's more reflective of something we haven't seen ever with some areas of the Atlantic resembling a +NAO and others resembling a -NAO/-AMO or -NAO/+AMO. Either way gradients will always lead to dynamic weather.

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