donsutherland1 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Interesting. So is it the plot chart that's off or is it the global SSTA map? And is there any other site that you prefer to use for SSTAs? Also... the official reading is based off July 29, not the week of the 29th, correct? So we'll have to wait for next Monday to see the SSTA readings for the 5th? The CPC data is for the week centered around 7/29 (7/26-8/1 average). CPC posts SST/SSTA maps that well-represent the weekly data it releases (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 soi minimums ...todays was -37.87 day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........204...-11.39 215...-15.82..........215...-37.87 233...-33.88 260...-26.63 278...-32.98 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 This looks basin wide to me evolving into a warmer 3.4 region with a steep decline in the 3.4 region once past Nov . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Which looks like the JAMSTEC , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 This wil update in 3 days , I am curious to see if the steep decline in the 3.4 region looks similar , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 3, 2015 Author Share Posted August 3, 2015 Anomalies in the ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 increased over the last week. Week centered around July 29: R 1+2: +2.7°C (+2.3°C prior report) R 3: +2.1°C (+2.1°C prior report) R 3.4: +1.7°C (+1.6°C prior report) R4: +1.0°C (+1.0°C prior report) No surprise given the wwbs, strongly -soi and we have back to back downwelling kelvin waves moving through right now. I would suspect regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 warm even more on the next update next week. There may be a major spike come early september with the surfacing oceanic kelvin wave. I would not be shocked if 3.4 is at or above +2.0C come early september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 3, 2015 Author Share Posted August 3, 2015 Nothing... I forgot when the models have the peak. So make that 12-14 weeks, lol. Edit: CFS has Nino 4 peaking around October... the rest of the regions peak later. So maybe that's where it came from. All models have a November/December peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 It will be interesting to see the DJF ECMWF when it comes out this month. The latest CA tool looks very similar to the NDJ ECMWF seasonal forecast. It's just a little further east with the Aleutian Low than the ECMWF which has it more west with a stronger -EPO ridge. But the rest of the forecast east of there looks similar to the ECMWF. cahgt_anom.3.gif cat2m_anom.3.gif Agreed , Same look at 500 on the Euro seasonal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Here`s the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Like CFS, CA didn't get last winter right at this point last year. The only seasonal model that got close (which turned out to be very close) was JAMSTEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yeah, that's a great look. Plenty of miller A's rolling up the East Coast from the Gulf. Here are the DJF composites: cahgt_anom.4.gif cat2m_anom.4.gif caprec_anom.4.gif Looks like some blocking too... I'd take that in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 If anyone remembers 09-10, several of our major snows were 3-5 degrees away from rain at 850mb and even closer at the surface. A moderated version of 09-10 would simply be cold and wet or warm and wet the entire winter. Although the interior would likely do well. The February 5th snowfall was so wet, almost broke my back shoveling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 If anyone remembers 09-10, several of our major snows were 3-5 degrees away from rain at 850mb and even closer at the surface. A moderated version of 09-10 would simply be cold and wet or warm and wet the entire winter. Although the interior would likely do well. The February 5th snowfall was so wet, almost broke my back shoveling it. We changed to rain in Philly in one of those Feb storms for a few hours. Still dumped like 25" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 We changed to rain in Philly in one of those Feb storms for a few hours. Still dumped like 25" though. I am convinced that the record breaking nature of 09-10 down here was due to threading the needle between record moisture transport and cold air availability/blocking. Don't think it will ever be challenged again locally and I am proud to have lived through that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 We changed to rain in Philly in one of those Feb storms for a few hours. Still dumped like 25" though. after the feb 10th storm ended the snow immediately started melting and temps went up to 33/34 and the late feb storm could have been 30+ for nyc had an inch of the 3" of liquid not been wasted on very low ratio snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I am convinced that the record breaking nature of 09-10 down here was due to threading the needle between record moisture transport and cold air availability/blocking. Don't think it will ever be challenged again locally and I am proud to have lived through that winter. The preseason indicators were as favorable as one can get; it definitely wasn't threading the needle. It was a perfect storm of favorable ingredients. Parts of MD, just outside of BWI, received upwards of 90-95" of snow that year. I still maintain that our maximum annual snowfall potential in this area is around 100". DC/BWI and SNE have achieved their "perfect" winters I think, but our area has yet to. I don't consider 95-96 as having achieved maximum potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The preseason indicators were as favorable as one can get; it definitely wasn't threading the needle. It was a perfect storm of favorable ingredients. Parts of MD, just outside of BWI, received upwards of 90-95" of snow that year. I still maintain that our maximum annual snowfall potential in this area is around 100". DC/BWI and SNE have achieved their "perfect" winters I think, but our area has yet to. I don't consider 95-96 as having achieved maximum potential. 1993-94 and 1995-96 could have seen 100" if the storms were all snow...both those years had close to a record amount of hours with frozen precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 latest tri monthly oni is +1.0 which is on par with 1997... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 latest tri monthly oni is +1.0 which is on par with 1997...I was just about to post that, the way this is going, I don't see how we don't hit +2.0C sometime in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 NYC could have beaten 95-96 if the blocking was just a little weaker in 09-10. Philly got 78.6" for a new seasonal record. http://www.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2010/July-August%202010/mega-snow-full.html The 09-10 STJ was pure beauty in motion. NYC could have also beaten 95-96 in 2010-2011 if the La Nina didn't run rampage in late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I was just about to post that, the way this is going, I don't see how we don't hit +2.0C sometime in September This Nino event began earlier than most previous strong Nino's. The current ONI doesn't really tell as much regarding the eventual peak magnitude. We're tracking similarly to 1957 as well, which had a +0.9C ONI as of the MJJ trimonthly period. The next several weeks are very important in ascertaining the evolution. Will be telling where we're at about one month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 This Nino event began earlier than most previous strong Nino's. The current ONI doesn't really tell as much regarding the eventual peak magnitude. We're tracking similarly to 1957 as well, which had a +0.9C ONI as of the MJJ trimonthly period. The next several weeks are very important in ascertaining the evolution. Will be telling where we're at about one month from now.Isotherm, take a look at this, Kenny Strawn pointed this out on twitter, but the entire warm pool has begun moving east. SSTS in 3.4 and 3 should really begin to soarhttps://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/628567800429199360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I was just about to post that, the way this is going, I don't see how we don't hit +2.0C sometime in September it's possible especially if the soi stays near -40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The latest set of CFS V2 ensembles are beginning to trend closer to reality regarding the peak intensity of this ENSO event (though still too strong). Note the trend over recent runs. Forecast for region 3.4 based on early July initial conditions: Mid/late July: Most recent runs (blue lines) trending closer to +2.0c: Latest runs (blue lines) cooling regions 1+2 as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Isotherm, take a look at this, Kenny Strawn pointed this out on twitter, but the entire warm pool has begun moving east. SSTS in 3.4 and 3 should really begin to soarhttps://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/628567800429199360 Definitely an impressive warm pool. But remember, most of that intense subsurface warmth will likely not reach the surface. However, I do agree that we should see some intensification over the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Definitely an impressive warm pool. But remember, most of that intense subsurface warmth will likely not reach the surface. However, I do agree that we should see some intensification over the next month.i could be wrong, nothing is certain in weather but I think we achieve super El Niño status come September. If we do not at least hit or surpass +2.0C in September, then it will be game over for a tri monthly super Nino IMO, I doubt that though as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Hot off the presses! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ some great links on this page too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It will be interesting to see exactly how strong the westward push ends up being going into September. poama.nino4.png You can almost see early hints of this on the subsurface animation jogging westward recently. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml agree on the jog west I just hope it's not just an underwater sonar hallucination! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 agree on the jog west I just hope it's not just an underwater sonar hallucination! if anything, the warm pool is moving east, look at this https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/628567800429199360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 mei was a little cooler this month...2015 is behind 1997 mei and closer to 1987 second year el nino... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.