Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Ginx snewx]

I think there is a red flag that just went up last month. The Aleutian Low was displaced well east of its normal position in July. Come fall, it would be very easy to upwell and eat away at those current warm anomalies like we saw briefly last October and like we really saw in October of 1997. If this trend continues this fall, I'd be very worried about keeping a -EPO. This needs to be watched very closely the next several months

you aren't considering what effect the PNA has on all this? Just look at that anomaly in the Pac NW, if that sets up this winter the PNA would be in perfect position for ridge West trough East as has been the persistent pattern since July 13

[easternsnowman]

The Aleutian Low was actually a bit further west this July compared to last year since the ridge was so much stronger

just west of Seattle where the record warmest month just occurred. But the winter location of the Aleutian

Low will depend on how far west the warmest SST's spread out into the Nino 4 region. 

 

15.gif

 

2014.g

Thanks again for the facts!

[uncle W]

the last two years had twice as many snowfalls as these winters below...

Dec snowfalls/blue...January/green...February/red...March/black...April/brown...tow colors mean last day/first day of the month combined...

season......1........2........3........4........5........6........7.......total

1997-98...0.5"....5.0"....................................................5.5"

1877-78...0.1"....8.0"....................................................8.1"

1972-73...1.8"....0.8"....0.2"..........................................2.8"

1994-95...0.3"..10.8"....0.1"....0.6"...............................11.8"

1979-80...3.5"....2.0"....1.6"....1.1"....4.6".....................12.8"
1982-83...3.0"....1.9"....3.9"..17.6"....0.8".....................27.2"

1991-92...0.7"....0.2"....1.3"....1.0"....6.2"....3.2"...........12.6"

1918-19...0.3"....0.3"....0.2"....0.3"....1.3"....1.4".............3.8"

1965-66...0.4"....2.4"....2.0"....6.8"....3.1"....0.4"....6.3"..21.4"

1968-69...5.2"....1.8"....1.0"..15.3"....1.3"....2.8"....2.8"..30.2"

[PB GFI]

Thanks again for the facts!

So there's no red flag right ?

You can see how the warmest anomalies are west and not " east " to date .

All the modeling progress the warmest waters west , first basin wide than warming the 3.4 region at the peak.

That scenario probably doesn't erase the warm waters In the Aleutians in time for the winter.

I think you will see that water finally get eaten up by next spring as we head into a La Nina.

Right now the EPO region is holding on both in the means and on the modeling . LR the models are still forecasting a warmer 3.4 region than the 1.2 region.

This does not look like 1997 to me .

[easternsnowman]

So there's no red flag right ? You can see how the warmest anamolies are west and not " east " to date .

All the modeling progress the warmest waters west , first basin wide than warming the 3.4 region at the peak.

That scenario probably doesn't erase the warm waters In the Aleutians in time for the winter.

I think you will see that water finally get eaten up by next spring as we head into a La Nina.

Right now the EPO region is holding on both in the means and on the modeling as is the forecast for a warner 3.4 region than the 1.2 region.

This does not look like 1997 to me .

I agree this does not look like 1997-98, but we still would need blocking and some luck in the cities much more than interior sections.

[PB GFI]

I agree this does not look like 1997-98, but we still would need blocking and some luck in the cities much more than interior sections.

Right now I can't be sure what the Atlantic will look like. If we end up with a Neg EPO , Pos PNA , I will take my chances.

Long term winter time blocking around here lately has been difficult.

[uncle W]

the ao and nao have been negative for a month now and forecasts are for more of the same in the short term...the long term is near neutral...is this the start of a negative regime or just wasted on the summer months?...

[dmillz25]

the ao and nao have been negative for a month now and forecasts are for more of the same in the short term...the long term is near neutral...is this the start of a negative regime or just wasted on the summer months?...

I hope its a negative regime.

[donsutherland1]

On today's CFSv2 charts, the most recent ensemble members (blue) were generally suggesting cooler anomalies in all four ENSO regions than earlier members and also the forecast mean, including in the all-important Regions 1+2 and 3.4.

 

 

This is a potentially significant development, but a much better idea, especially for Region 1+2, likely won't be available until the fall.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Recently, SST's have been warming around Australia - not the direction one would want to head if the hope is a record breaking El Nino event on par / surpassing 1997. My continued thinking is that probabilities are extremely low for a trimonthly peak at or above 2.3c (1997-98 magnitude), and a fairly low chance for a > 2.0c trimonthly peak.

 

Current:

 

July 29th, 1997:

 

 

It's cooling again

 

 

 

On today's CFSv2 charts, the most recent ensemble members (blue) were generally suggesting cooler anomalies in all four ENSO regions than earlier members and also the forecast mean, including in the all-important Regions 1+2 and 3.4.

 

 

This is a potentially significant development, but a much better idea, especially for Region 1+2, likely won't be available until the fall.

The PDF corrected version of region 3.4 is even cooler

 

 

The only region that CFS isn't picking up on a clear trend is 1+2, which is pretty ambiguous. All the others are on a downward trend.

[snowman19]

It's cooling again

The PDF corrected version of region 3.4 is even cooler

The only region that CFS isn't picking up on a clear trend is 1+2, which is pretty ambiguous. All the others are on a downward trend.

The Euro hasn't budged. That said, there is clearly more strengthening to come. We have 2 downwelling kelvin waves in progress as we speak, one behind the other. The wwbs have been amazingly persistent and an oceanic kelvin wave still has yet to surface

[ClicheVortex2014]

As far as the 'debate' about the Aleutian low... here's a simplified look at it. 500mb geopotential heights for July 2015 minus July 2014... then July 2015 minus 1997

 

 

 

If you look at CFS's output... it has the Aleutian low coming pretty far east... into the GOA. It should start to appear in the coming months.... which kinda makes sense IMO because ENSO typically has the most impacts in the cool season.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The Euro hasn't budged. That said, there is clearly more strengthening to come. We have 2 downwelling kelvin waves in progress as we speak, one behind the other. The wwbs have been amazingly persistent and an oceanic kelvin wave still has yet to surface

That's why I'm not so sure that region 4 will get as warm as CFS and JAMSTEC say. The warming has been delayed for months now. Now it's going to be at least another 2 weeks until CFS says there's a shot at it warming. At which point, gotta watch out for another WWB because they've been pretty frequent. Then there's only ~6-8 weeks until the Nino peaks. 

[snowman19]

As far as the 'debate' about the Aleutian low... here's a simplified look at it. 500mb geopotential heights for July 2015 minus July 2014... then July 2015 minus 1997

If you look at CFS's output... it has the Aleutian low coming pretty far east... into the GOA. It should start to appear in the coming months.... which kinda makes sense IMO because ENSO typically has the most impacts in the cool season.

Good point about the waters cooling around Australia again. And your graphic above is what you don't want to happen if you want to keep a -EPO. I posted about it yesterday, but an Aleutian Low displaced east, would upwell and eat up those warm anomalies in a heartbeat come October and November

[nzucker]

CFS forecast looks very unfavorable for a cold/snowy East...very low heights in the GOA and a raging PAC jet. Have to hope that forecast doesn't come to fruition.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Good point about the waters cooling around Australia again. And your graphic above is what you don't want to happen if you want to keep a -EPO. I posted about it yesterday, but an Aleutian Low displaced east, would upwell and eat up those warm anomalies in a heartbeat come October and November

I've been posting a lot in various places about what happened in late July when the warm pool was quickly but severely weakened. It's still not as strong as it was before, but it is recovering.

 

It seems like it was weakened by a cold tongue that extended east-southeast from the Sea of Okhotsk (see: http://i.imgur.com/Dq2Qy34.png).If you look at CFS's SST anomaly output for the next 6 months, the cold pool northwest of Hawaii is a persistent feature. It slowly moves east throughout the months, slowly cooling the NE Pacific. 

 

So I think what we saw in late July was a glimpse of what the CFS is expecting to happen in the North Pacific... but the current got cut off, so it was nothing more than a glimpse/teaser for now.

 

There's obviously been a lot of talk about 1997... but what's interesting to me is how similar the North Pacific is to what we saw in 97 around this time.

 

 

They both had a cold tongue of SSTs in the same area... but 97's extended further east. I really doubt the north Pacific is going to flip in time for this winter... but it should be weakening. 

 

I've also looked back at the ends of previous +PDO regimes (2010, 2004, 1997)... the first sign of a flip "started" when a warm tongue of SSTs first extended east from Japan... usually in the spring of the year before the flip.... in a -PDO fashion. From the time of the warm tongue to the time it actually flipped, it took 10-12 months. We had this warm tongue in April of 2015... so if history repeats itself, we should see the flip in late winter through the spring. But it might take longer since the NE Pacific is so damn warm.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.16.2015.gif

[ClicheVortex2014]

You have to be careful using the CFS beyond the one month forecast issued in the last

few days of the previous month. The forecast last year at this time for the winter of

2014-2015 was all wrong. It mistakenly lowered heights too much over the GOA

precisely where the ridge set up and was forecasting a warm winter for us last year.

So I am hoping that it's showing the same bias this year and the Aleutian low ends

up further west allowing a more -EPO like the other long range models have.

 

forecast 

 

glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

verification

 

15.png

Valid point. What I think happened there is that the CFS was expecting a moderate central-based Nino... which ended up to be weaker and further west.

Even in December, CFS thought the winter was gonna be a CONUS-wide torch. Poor performance overall. But based on the trends so far... this will probably end weaker than we thought one month ago... but I don't see the Nino going further west than currently expected. I'm looking forward to the August updates... but I think Nino 4 and 3.4 are going to trend cooler

[snowman19]

Valid point. What I think happened there is that the CFS was expecting a moderate central-based Nino... which ended up to be weaker and further west.

Even in December, CFS thought the winter was gonna be a CONUS-wide torch. Poor performance overall. But based on the trends so far... this will probably end weaker than we thought one month ago... but I don't see the Nino going further west than currently expected. I'm looking forward to the August updates... but I think Nino 4 and 3.4 are going to trend cooler

The cfs is more believable this year because it's showing a strong Nino pattern and we already have a solid strong Nino in place with record atmospheric forcing already. We shall see this fall...

[ClicheVortex2014]

you aren't considering what effect the PNA has on all this? Just look at that anomaly in the Pac NW, if that sets up this winter the PNA would be in perfect position for ridge West trough East as has been the persistent pattern since July 13

That poses 2 questions that I think are the million dollar questions

 

1) Will the forcing from the strong/super Nino be greater than the forcing from the warm pool, even if it does stick around? That can't be answered at this point because we've never had a strong/super Nino with a NE warm pool this extreme. Some of the Midwest Meteorologists on this forum think the Nino forcing will win... but a case can certainly be made for at least occasional warm pool-induced ridges.

 

2) Will the warm poor even still be there? CFS has the NE Pacific cooling dramatically in the Winter. JAMSTEC is less aggressive, however the extreme warm pool is gone and PDO is slowly weakening.

[Isotherm]

At this point in time, the onset of the El Nino (2015) is lagging behind the majority of other high-end strong to super El Nino events in terms of SOI values through July. While the SOI is one tool to measure the magnitude of an ENSO event, I believe it is an important one. It provides a valuable barometer for overall WWB intensity/frequency, and consequently the resultant SST warming that should occur.

 

Through July, the lowest monthly SOI values for these strong-super El Nino onset years:

 

1997 - June: -24.1 (peak trimonthly of +2.3c)

1982 - July: -20.1 (peak trimonthly of +2.1c)

1972 - July: -18.6 (peak trimonthly of +2.0c)

1965 - July: -22.6 (peak trimonthly of +1.8c)

1957 - May: -12.2 (peak trimonthly of +1.7c)

 

2015 - July: -13.83 is the lowest SOI monthly value thus far.

 

As one can see, SOI wise, 2015 more closely resembles 1957 than the years which featured trimonthly peaks at or above +2.0c. It is still fairly early in the game, so we'll see how the WWB / SOI pattern progresses over the next several weeks. However, by later this month, and particularly by September, we should have a good idea on the eventual peak magnitude trimonthly wise. As I've been posting for awhile now, I continue to think that the trimonthly peak will be in the range of +1.7c to +1.9c, and see no reason to discard that idea.

 

Regarding the EPO, I think there might be a bit too much focus on the SST's in the GOA. While those SST's can feedback and enhance a pattern, they're primarily the result of the atmospheric regime that initially induced them. In other words, I wouldn't be expecting the warm SST's south of Alaska to drive the pattern toward another strongly negative EPO year. As noted in prior posts, statistically speaking, strong El Nino events overwhelmingly favor a mean neutral to positive EPO modality due to the tendency for the Aleutian/GOA trough low heights to extend toward the BC coast. There can be periods of -EPO, but overall those winters tended to be neutral to positive. However, keep in mind, the EPO signal doesn't have much relevance insofar as the PNA or NAO/AO states, and the importance of those indices is elevated in this particular ENSO regime. At this point, I would be surprised to see a dominant -EPO signal this upcoming winter. If we weaken this El Nino rapidly into moderate territory by DJF and the event is central/west based, that will increase the potential for a -EPO. However, the maintenance of a strong +ENSO event through DJF allows probabilities to remain fairly low for protracted periods of -EPO due to the atmospheric response in expanding / strengthening the GOA low.

[donsutherland1]

Anomalies in the ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 increased over the last week.

 

Week centered around July 29:

 

R 1+2: +2.7°C (+2.3°C prior report)

R 3: +2.1°C (+2.1°C prior report)

R 3.4: +1.7°C (+1.6°C prior report)

R4: +1.0°C (+1.0°C prior report)

[ClicheVortex2014]

The colder models like the NMME and ECMWF, which are equally as  strong as the CFS, extend the warmer

waters further west into  Nino 4. So the tropical forcing is further west in these models allowing the -EPO and warm pool

to remain in tact. The location of the greatest SST anomalies in the ENSO regions will be the key as to the phase

that the EPO takes. So we'll have to wait and see if the CFS is showing that bias again of being too far

east with the warmer waters like last winter.

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

 

CFSv2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

Based on current trends, I really doubt CFS is being too far east (or not enough to the west). Nino 4 is below +0.8C now... we've got about 8 weeks until the Nino peaks. Sure, it's going to recover when the Kelvin wave is gone... but it has a lot of ground to make up to even make it to where the CFS has it peaking now... nonetheless what NMME has. We're gonna need a massive warming there, and hope that another WWB doesn't happen.

 

[donsutherland1]

Based on current trends, I really doubt CFS is being too far east (or not enough to the west). Nino 4 is below +0.8C now... we've got about 8 weeks until the Nino peaks. Sure, it's going to recover when the Kelvin wave is gone... but it has a lot of ground to make up to even make it to where the CFS has it peaking now... nonetheless what NMME has. We're gonna need a massive warming there, and hope that another WWB doesn't happen.

 

The Region 4 anomaly was actually +1.0°C in the data released today.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

The Tropical Tidbits site is usually off from officially-released figures. For example, it currently shows Region 3.4 with an anomaly of +1.326°C. The most recent reported figure was +1.7°C. That's not an inconsequential difference.

 

I do agree that it is too soon to write off excessive warmth in Region 1+2. The latest figure there was +2.7°C, which remains warmer than modeled e.g., on the CFSv2.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The Region 4 anomaly was actually +1.0°C in the data released today.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

The Tropical Tidbits site is usually off from officially-released figures. For example, it currently shows Region 3.4 with an anomaly of +1.326°C. The most recent reported figure was +1.7°C. That's not an inconsequential difference.

 

I do agree that it is too soon to write off excessive warmth in Region 1+2. The latest figure there was +2.7°C, which remains warmer than modeled e.g., on the CFSv2.

I saw that, but the "official" report is based on July 29, is it not? If that's the case, then Tropicaltidbits isn't off because the Nino 4 and 3.4 dip started soon after July 29. And the values seen on that chart on Tropicaltidbits for July 29 are consistent with the official report.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

          Nino1+2  Nino3     Nino34   Nino4

     Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA

24JUN2015 25.1 2.6 28.1 1.9 28.9 1.4 29.9 1.1

01JUL2015 24.9 2.7 28.0 2.0 28.9 1.4 29.8 1.0

08JUL2015 25.2 3.3 27.9 2.1 28.8 1.5 29.9 1.1

15JUL2015 24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0

22JUL2015 23.7 2.3 27.6 2.1 28.8 1.6 29.8 1.0

29JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.0

[Isotherm]

Based on current trends, I really doubt CFS is being too far east (or not enough to the west). Nino 4 is below +0.8C now... we've got about 8 weeks until the Nino peaks. Sure, it's going to recover when the Kelvin wave is gone... but it has a lot of ground to make up to even make it to where the CFS has it peaking now... nonetheless what NMME has. We're gonna need a massive warming there, and hope that another WWB doesn't happen.

 

 

 

 

What leads you to believe the peak will occur in 8 weeks (end of September)? The IRI dynamical/statistical mean is around November.

[ClicheVortex2014]

What leads you to believe the peak will occur in 8 weeks (end of September)? The IRI dynamical/statistical mean is around November.

Nothing... I forgot when the models have the peak. So make that 12-14 weeks, lol.

 

Edit: CFS has Nino 4 peaking around October... the rest of the regions peak later. So maybe that's where it came from.

[Isotherm]

Regarding the orientation of anomalies, SST's can change fairly drastically over the period Aug-Nov. Notice the following SSTA images from 2009.

 

August 3rd - still clearly east based:

 

 

 

 

By mid November, 2009 - transitioning basin wide:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early December 2009; central/west based:

 

 

Also notice the NPAC SSTA change. We have to see how the fall pattern evolves ENSO wise and in the mid-latitudes before any real educated guesses are made pertaining to the winter.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yeah but CFS and JAMSTEC had a good grip on the ENSO evolution in 2009 at this time that year... FWIW. I don't mean to suggest what we see now is locked in... but we are at the time of year where we're starting to get a good idea of what to expect. I'm looking forward to the August update for that reason.

 

 

Observed for that winter: 

[donsutherland1]

I saw that, but the "official" report is based on July 29, is it not? If that's the case, then Tropicaltidbits isn't off because the Nino 4 and 3.4 dip started soon after July 29. And the values seen on that chart on Tropicaltidbits for July 29 are consistent with the official report.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

it is often off, especially in Region 1+2. For example, here's data from the past 10 weeks:

 

 

Since the week centered around June 10, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been almost entirely above +2.5°C according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Tropical Tidbits charts show three short periods with such anomalies. None of those anomalies reach the +3.3°C peak that was registered in the week centered around July 8. Instead, the Tropical Tidbits Charts show figures generally below +2.5°C and falling to close to +2.0°C on one date. A more than 1°C "miss" is huge.

 

Moreover, even the most recent "cooling" shown in Region 3.4 on the Tropical Tidbits chart is likely to be spurious given the SOI- that has strengthened since July 29.

[ClicheVortex2014]

it is often off, especially in Region 1+2. For example, here's data from the past 10 weeks:

 

Since the week centered around June 10, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been almost entirely above +2.5°C according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Tropical Tidbits charts show three short periods with such anomalies. None of those anomalies reach the +3.3°C peak that was registered in the week centered around July 8. Instead, the Tropical Tidbits Charts show figures generally below +2.5°C and falling to close to +2.0°C on one date. A more than 1°C "miss" is huge.

 

Moreover, even the most recent "cooling" shown in Region 3.4 on the Tropical Tidbits chart is likely to be spurious given the SOI- that has strengthened since July 29.

Interesting. So is it the plot chart that's off or is it the global SSTA map? And is there any other site that you prefer to use for SSTAs?

 

Also... the official reading is based off July 29, not the week of the 29th, correct? So we'll have to wait for next Monday to see the SSTA readings for the 5th?