Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[donsutherland1]

During the last two days, I posted short summaries of winters during the 1965-66 and 1982-83 El Niño events. The third post in a series features the 1997-98 El Niño event, which was the strongest on record. It produced notable warmth in the East focused on January. Snowfall in such cities as Washington (0.1"), Philadelphia (0.8"), and New York City (5.5") was much below normal.

 

 

 

For New York City, the following summary provides a sketch of the outcomes that resulted, in part, during the 1997-98 El Niño winter:

 

December 1997:

Highs 50° or above: 7

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 0

Measurable snowfall: None

Monthly snowfall: 0.0"

 

January 1998:

Highs 50° or above: 11

Highs 60° or above: 4

Highs 32° or below: 1

Measurable snowfall: 1 day

Monthly snowfall: 0.5"

 

February 1998:

Highs 50° or above: 9

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 0

Measurable snowfall: None

Monthly snowfall: 0.0"

 

December 1997-February 1998 Totals:

Highs 50° or above: 27

Highs 60° or above: 4

Highs 32° or below: 1

Measurable snowfall: 1 day

December-February snowfall: 0.5"

 

On March 22, 1998, New York City picked up 5.0" snow. That snowfall assured that winter 1997-98 would not be the least snowy on record. However, the 0.5" snow that fell during meteorological winter probably hints that even lower figures than the 2.8" that fell in winter 1972-73 (during a strong El Niño event) are possible given the right conditions. Furthermore, that only a single day registered a high temperature of 32° or below (during meteorological winter) might suggest that a sufficiently warm winter could have no such days.

[uncle W]

During the last two days, I posted short summaries of winters during the 1965-66 and 1982-83 El Niño events. The 1997-98 El Niño event was the strongest on record. It produced notable warmth in the East focused on January. Snowfall in such cities as Washington (0.1"), Philadelphia (0.8"), and New York City (5.5") was much below normal.

 

 

 

For New York City, the following summary provides a sketch of the outcomes that resulted, in part, during the 1982-83 El Niño winter:

 

December 1997:

Highs 50° or above: 7

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 0

Measurable snowfall: None

Monthly snowfall: 0.0"

 

January 1998:

Highs 50° or above: 11

Highs 60° or above: 4

Highs 32° or below: 1

Measurable snowfall: 1 day

Monthly snowfall: 0.5"

 

February 1998:

Highs 50° or above: 9

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 0

Measurable snowfall: None

Monthly snowfall: 0.0"

 

December 1997-February 1998 Totals:

Highs 50° or above: 27

Highs 60° or above: 4

Highs 32° or below: 1

Measurable snowfall: 1 day

December-February snowfall: 0.5"

 

On March 22, 1998, New York City picked up 5.0" snow. That snowfall assured that winter 1997-98 would not be the least snowy on record. However, the 0.5" snow that fell during meteorological winter probably hints that even lower figures than the 2.8" that fell in winter 1972-73 (during a strong El Niño event) are possible given the right conditions. Furthermore, that only a single day registered a high temperature of 32° or below might suggest that a sufficiently warm winter could have no such days.

I'll have to double check because I have three days 32 or lower for 1997-98...1997-98 holds the record for the highest coldest 30 day period beating out 2011-12...1997-98 holds the record for the highest max day which was only 31...

1972-73 managed a 30 day period averaging 32.0 which was lower than the next two seasons...1982-83 managed a 30 day period averaging 32.9...

1970-71..........24.2

1971-72..........28.6

1972-73..........32.0

1973-74..........32.3

1974-75..........33.0

1975-76..........27.1

1976-77..........21.9

1977-78..........26.2

1978-79..........26.0

1979-80..........30.9...10yr ave...28.22

 

1980-81..........22.2

1981-82..........25.2

1982-83..........32.9

1983-84..........26.1

1984-85..........27.5

1985-86..........31.0

1986-87..........29.3

1987-88..........28.3

1988-89..........32.4

1989-90..........25.3...10yr ave...29.02

1990-91..........34.5

1991-92..........30.3

1992-93..........31.0

1993-94..........23.5

1994-95..........31.5

1995-96..........27.7

1996-97..........31.7

1997-98..........37.3

1998-99..........31.3

1999-00..........26.2...10yr ave...30.50

2000-01..........29.9

2001-02..........35.4

2002-03..........25.9

2003-04..........22.5

2004-05..........29.5

2005-06..........33.5

2006-07..........25.8

2007-08..........35.7

2008-09..........27.9

2009-10..........31.6...10yr ave...29.77

2010-11..........28.1

2011-12..........37.0

2012-13..........31.5

2013-14..........28.5

2014-15..........23.9.

 

1930-15..........29.0 average...

[donsutherland1]

I'll have to double check because I have three days 32 or lower for 1997-98...1997-98 holds the record for the highest coldest 30 day period beating out 2011-12...1997-98 holds the record for the highest max day which was only 31...

1972-73 managed a 30 day period averaging 32.0 which was lower than the next two seasons...1982-83 managed a 30 day period averaging 32.9...

There were 3 such days for winter 1997-98, but 2 occurred in March. The total of 1 was for the December-February period. I've added language to refer to meteorological winter in my post.

[uncle W]

least amount of snow for the winter months Dec-Feb...

0.5" 1997-98

1.1" 1918-19

2.6" 1972-73

2.7" 1931-32

3.2" 1991-92

3.5" 2001-02

4.5" 2011-12

5.6" 1988-89

5.7" 1958-59

6.4" 2006-07

7.0" 1889-90

7.2" 1937-38

7.6" 1899-00

7.9" 1954-55

8.1" 1877-78

[uncle W]

There were 3 such days for winter 1997-98, but 2 occurred in March. The total of 1 was for the December-February period. I've added language to refer to meteorological winter in my post.

Thanks Don...you have to make it as simple as possible for me ...

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Don...you have to make it as simple as possible for me ...

It was sufficiently vague that others almost certainly missed it, too. I wrote the message fairly quickly and should have edited it.

[Sundog]

least amount of snow for the winter months Dec-Feb...

0.5" 1997-98

1.1" 1918-19

2.6" 1972-73

2.7" 1931-32

3.2" 1991-92

3.5" 2001-02

4.5" 2011-12

5.6" 1988-89

5.7" 1958-59

6.4" 2006-07

7.0" 1889-90

7.2" 1937-38

7.6" 1899-00

7.9" 1954-55

8.1" 1877-78

I've never seen a more depressing list.

[PB GFI]

>1.9C on the trimonthlies? That's far from a certainty IMO. Possible but definitely not a high-confidence forecast yet.

It will be close . I think we may eek it out.

1.9 was my forecast so I will see how close I get. I do continue to think the greatest deviations from normal will continue to back west and by the time we get to OND the 3.4 region will b warner than the 1.2 region .

I am content to wait and see what the EPO region looks like come O and N. I believe that area will be a large factor in either separating this winter from 97 or replicating it.

[donsutherland1]

least amount of snow for the winter months Dec-Feb...

0.5" 1997-98

1.1" 1918-19

2.6" 1972-73

2.7" 1931-32

3.2" 1991-92

3.5" 2001-02

4.5" 2011-12

5.6" 1988-89

5.7" 1958-59

6.4" 2006-07

7.0" 1889-90

7.2" 1937-38

7.6" 1899-00

7.9" 1954-55

8.1" 1877-78

Among these 15 very sad cases, just over half occurred during El Niños:

 

1877-78, 1889-90, 1899-00, 1918-19, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2006-07. The worst three all occurred during El Niño events.

[snowman19]

It will be close . I think we may eek it out.

1.9 was my forecast so I will see how close I get. I do continue to think the greatest deviations from normal will continue to back west and by the time we get to OND the 3.4 region will b warner than the 1.2 region .

I am content to wait and see what the EPO region looks like come O and N. I believe that area will be a large factor in either separating this winter from 97 or replicating it.

I agree with you. October/November will be important as to how winter goes. If we have a GOA vortex or a developing GOA vortex at that point, it's white flag waving time. If we maintain the -EPO look, then it could be a very interesting winter with a super El Niño to boot

[JBG]

It was sufficiently vague that others almost certainly missed it, too. I wrote the message fairly quickly and should have edited it.

I understood it that way, as edited, but many non-historians might miss it.

[uncle W]

Among these 15 very sad cases, just over half occurred during El Niños:

 

1877-78, 1889-90, 1899-00, 1918-19, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2006-07. The worst three all occurred during El Niño events.

some el nino years had very few measurable snowfalls...

season...amount...

1997-98...2

2001-02...2

1877-78...2 or one?

2011-12...3

1972-73...3

1988-89...4

1994-95...4

1979-80...5

1982-83...5

1991-92...6

1965-66...7

1968-69...7

1990-91...7

there may have been a few other years before 1953 with low totals but I don't have those records in front of me...

[Isotherm]

I agree with you. October/November will be important as to how winter goes. If we have a GOA vortex or a developing GOA vortex at that point, it's white flag waving time. If we maintain the -EPO look, then it could be a very interesting winter with a super El Niño to boot

 

 

The Atlantic and Arctic need to be monitored as well. A strong/super Nino with a -EPO and raging +AO/+NAO may not be very helpful. In fact, I can't find any examples of a strong or super El Nino winter with a -EPO / +NAO / +AO pattern. Last winter's regime of +NAO/AO/-EPO would not yield the same results in this ENSO state, and moreover, it would be uncharted territory if it occurred. If the EPO is negative, typically the NAO, and particularly AO, average neutral to negative as well.

[WEATHER53]

The cold air lurked but never got here for any event during late 90's one.  I think we have a similiar type set up for DC but not as extreme. Plenty of nice tracking lows but cold air hard to find, at least a few times this upcoming instead of zero.

[snowman19]

The Atlantic and Arctic need to be monitored as well. A strong/super Nino with a -EPO and raging +AO/+NAO may not be very helpful. In fact, I can't find any examples of a strong or super El Nino winter with a -EPO / +NAO / +AO pattern. Last winter's regime of +NAO/AO/-EPO would not yield the same results in this ENSO state, and moreover, it would be uncharted territory if it occurred. If the EPO is negative, typically the NAO, and particularly AO, average neutral to negative as well.

That was my question, if there is a super El Niño, even with a -EPO, +PDO, and +PNA, I didn't see why some think that would automatically lead to a cold and snowy winter without help from the NAO and AO. You took the words out of my mouth. I don't think we cut it this time without a solid -AO and -NAO given ENSO

[Yanksfan]

One things for sure, there will be plenty of storm opportunities for us this winter. The determining factor will be the atlantic teleconnections. If regions 1 and 2 don't go bonkers and torch, we should be ok or at the very least we'll have a back loaded winter. If not we're screwed.

[PB GFI]

A - EPO +PNA with a warmer 3.4 region  would yield a colder than normal pattern . That part is not hard guys .
When you turn the jet off Asia that set up would force HP through the lakes .
The debate can't be does a -EPO +PNA yield below normal Temps , it has to be does that signature actually show up.

[PB GFI]

Nino temperatures down a bit from last week especially in the Nino 1+2 regions.

The obvious difference between 1997 and today is how much warmer 1+2 already

was at this point. This seems to be what the models have been showing with the

warmest waters eventually spreading west and not becoming east based like 97-98.

 

15JUL2015  2.9 2.3 1.7  1.0

22JUL2015  2.3 2.1  1.6 1.0

23JUL1997  4.1 2.4  1.7 0.8

[bluewave]

Good post Chris .

The NMNE , Euro the Jamstec SST profile promote riding on the WC as a result of a NEG EPO.

The warm 3.4 region alone does not F winter here. If you ever got a strong STJ feeding into a coastal track along with arriving HP through the lakes many here will b happy.

No one can be sure yet but some of the guidance is hinting the scenario is possible.

 

Thanks Paul, I agree that we would rather see a a -EPO with a strong El Nino for better snow opportunities than a +EPO.

 

The one thing that we know is that all the stronger Ninos with a dominant +EPO featured below or in the case of 82-83

near normal seasonal snowfall for NYC. While the sample size is tiny, 57-58 featured a negative February and March

EPO when the best snows occurred and above normal seasonal snowfall. 65-66 while a strong -AO year, had

a mostly positive EPO and below normal seasonal snowfall in NYC.

[easternsnowman]

Thanks Paul, I agree that we would rather see a a -EPO with a strong El Nino for better snow opportunities than a +EPO.

 

The one thing that we know is that all the stronger Ninos with a dominant +EPO featured below or in the case of 82-83

near normal seasonal snowfall for NYC. While the sample size is tiny, 57-58 featured a negative February and March

EPO when the best snows occurred and above normal seasonal snowfall. 65-66 while a strong -AO year, had

a mostly positive EPO and below normal seasonal snowfall in NYC.

You and Paul have been on top of this developing strong nino and also have the most info and rational answers more than anyone.

[Isotherm]

Thanks Paul, I agree that we would rather see a a -EPO with a strong El Nino for better snow opportunities than a +EPO.

 

The one thing that we know is that all the stronger Ninos with a dominant +EPO featured below or in the case of 82-83

near normal seasonal snowfall for NYC. While the sample size is tiny, 57-58 featured a negative February and March

EPO when the best snows occurred and above normal seasonal snowfall. 65-66 while a strong -AO year, had

a mostly positive EPO and below normal seasonal snowfall in NYC.

 

 

The -NAO/AO were crucial in 57-58 as well. Prior to February, NYC recorded almost 20" of snow for Dec/Jan combined 57-58. The negative NAO became more anomalous as the winter progressed.

[Isotherm]

Nino temperatures down a bit from last week especially in the Nino 1+2 regions.

The obvious difference between 1997 and today is how much warmer 1+2 already

was at this point. This seems to be what the models have been showing with the

warmest waters eventually spreading west and not becoming east based like 97-98.

 

15JUL2015  2.9 2.3 1.7  1.0

22JUL2015  2.3 2.1  1.6 1.0

23JUL1997  4.1 2.4  1.7 0.8

 

 

One can see the values in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 are already beginning to equalize, which is good news. I'm fairly confident we're not looking at a super east based event ala 1997-98, and this will become basin wide over the next couple months.

[PB GFI]

You and Paul have been on top of this developing strong nino and also have the most info and rational answers more than anyone.

 

Thank you , 

 

TBF Snowman has been yelling strong to super from the get go .  I have just been in the camp of the greatest heat expansion ending up in the 3.4 region . I think you are starting to see the migration west into a basin wide NINO then ultimately there .

 

After that , J-M questions probably get answered in O and N . 

[IrishRob17]

You and Paul have been on top of this developing strong nino and also have the most info and rational answers more than anyone.

 

 

This statement is spot on, thank you for your efforts guys.

[donsutherland1]

Nino temperatures down a bit from last week especially in the Nino 1+2 regions.

The obvious difference between 1997 and today is how much warmer 1+2 already

was at this point. This seems to be what the models have been showing with the

warmest waters eventually spreading west and not becoming east based like 97-98.

 

15JUL2015  2.9 2.3 1.7  1.0

22JUL2015  2.3 2.1  1.6 1.0

23JUL1997  4.1 2.4  1.7 0.8

The latest data is encouraging and in line with some of the guidance. I still worry about the guidance showing a secondary peak for R1+2 down the road. Given that region's forecasting challenges, I don't think one will have a good handle on it until fall.

[Isotherm]

Thank you , 

 

TBF Snowman has been yelling strong to super from the get go .  I have just been in the camp of the greatest heat expansion ending up in the 3.4 region . I think you are starting to see the migration west into a basin wide NINO then ultimately there .

 

After that , J-M questions probably get answered in O and N . 

 

 

My thinking continues to be a trimonthly peak around 1.8c-1.9c, which is near / slightly stronger than the peaks seen in 65-66 and 57-58. I'd average the dynamical and statistical models with a lean toward statistical based upon performance in recent years. We'll see how things progress in the next month or so.

[PB GFI]

My thinking continues to be a trimonthly peak around 1.8c-1.9c, which is near / slightly stronger than the peaks seen in 65-66 and 57-58. I'd average the dynamical and statistical models with a lean toward statistical based upon performance in recent years. We'll see how things progress in the next month or so.

 

 

I do think Nov - Dec will start out A normal .

 

If we do happen to evolve to what I think could  happen I do like a back ended winter .

Jan - Feb - March type winter on tap .

 

Far away , so that`s just my 1st stab at it . Agree prob better to wait until the fall to make such a call . 

[nzucker]

I do think Nov - Dec will start out A normal .

If we do happen to evolve to what I think could happen I do like a back ended winter .

Jan - Feb - March type winter on tap .

Far away , so that`s just my 1st stab at it . Agree prob better to wait until the fall to make such a call .

57-58 was a backloaded winter in a strong Nino that featured blocking. Could be an analog.

[snowman19]

57-58 was a backloaded winter in a strong Nino that featured blocking. Could be an analog.

This one is looking to peak much stronger

[mitchnick]

I notice that the past few days on the CFS2 the latest members have been coming in cooler in ENSO 3-4. I'm hoping that's not just a blip. 1&2 remains chaos.