Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[easternsnowman]

A super el nino will be bad for NYC area even 50 miles north and west but inland areas will not  be affected as much. 5 degrees above normal won't hurt too much when your norms are around freezing for highs. When your average is above 35 and some cases near 40 say in January, you would need good timing and luck.

[Rittenhouse]

A super el nino will be bad for NYC area even 50 miles north and west but inland areas will not  be affected as much. 5 degrees above normal won't hurt too much when your norms are around freezing for highs. When your average is above 35 and some cases near 40 say in January, you would need good timing and luck.

 

A super El Nino would probably be bad for NYC if you're looking for snow in November or December. Early season snowfalls are always going to hampered by marginal temps at the coast. A strong subtropical jet can be a deal breaker in these situations. Arctic air is much more entrenched by January and February, though. A "super" El Nino is probably good thing if you want big snowstorms in January and February. The NAO and AO have more of an effect on the Northeast in the winter than El Nino anyway.

 

The CPC's winter forecast clearly favors an El Nino winter, but NYC remains in the EC zone for temperatures.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The latest CFSv2 forecast for August is now strongly resembling an El Niño composite, especially one in which a strong PDO+ is present:

 

 

In the meantime, the block that began on 6/21 has now lasted 35 days. That's the 4th longest AO- streak for blocks that began in June. The only longer ones are:

 

June 3-July 14, 1982: 42 days

June 19-August 11, 2009: 54 days

June 5-July 12, 2011: 38 days

 

Such extended duration blocks at this time of the year do not necessarily indicate a blocky winter lies ahead.

[nzucker]

A super El Nino would probably be bad for NYC if you're looking for snow in November or December. Early season snowfalls are always going to hampered by marginal temps at the coast. A strong subtropical jet can be a deal breaker in these situations. Arctic air is much more entrenched by January and February, though. A "super" El Nino is probably good thing if you want big snowstorms in January and February. The NAO and AO have more of an effect on the Northeast in the winter than El Nino anyway.

The CPC's winter forecast clearly favors an El Nino winter, but NYC remains in the EC.

Strong Ninos tend to have some cold shots in fall...thinking of Nov 1997 and Oct 2009. 1972 also had a pretty cool fall, I believe. So the cold November/warm December couplet of the last few years might continue. December could be extremely warm, too.

[uncle W]

there were a few early snowfalls in 1972...One in October and one in mid November...the October dusting started as rain...November's storm was rain ending as snow......it was followed by record cold...November 1972 was the wettest on record... the year without snow did have a few days with dustings and another one came in mid December...The next snowfall came at the end of January and was a rain to snow event from a coastal storm...If it was all snow it would have been 10"...There were a few storms that stayed south of us giving some places south of DC more snow than NYC...1982 had a cold snow event on Dec. 12th...1997 had a few dustings in December outside Manhattan...November was cool...this year could be the strongest nino or close to it...The year with the most snow (1982) had a mild fall...The older nino's from before 1950 did have a few that were snowy...1925-26 was saved by getting two major storms in one February week...1896-97 had snow in December and 43" for the season with a major storm at the end of January...

The JMA updated and is now +11...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

[snowman19]

The latest CFSv2 forecast for August is now strongly resembling an El Niño composite, especially one in which a strong PDO+ is present:

In the meantime, the block that began on 6/21 has now lasted 35 days. That's the 4th longest AO- streak for blocks that began in June. The only longer ones are:

June 3-July 14, 1982: 42 days

June 19-August 11, 2009: 54 days

June 5-July 12, 2011: 38 days

Such extended duration blocks at this time of the year do not necessarily indicate a blocky winter lies ahead.

Pretty strong signal for a cool to very cool August right now Don, between the Nino taking over and the +PDO/+PNA. Also, increasing confidence by the day that this event is going to be historic. There is yet another very strong WWB taking shape....

[Eduardo]

A super El Nino would probably be bad for NYC if you're looking for snow in November or December. Early season snowfalls are always going to hampered by marginal temps at the coast. A strong subtropical jet can be a deal breaker in these situations. Arctic air is much more entrenched by January and February, though. A "super" El Nino is probably good thing if you want big snowstorms in January and February. The NAO and AO have more of an effect on the Northeast in the winter than El Nino anyway.

The CPC's winter forecast clearly favors an El Nino winter, but NYC remains in the EC zone for temperatures.

I'm inclined to agree here. I could see another backloaded winter like we had last year, especially if the Niño peaks early in the winter. We will be in good shape so long as ENSO doesn't become so sharply east-based that it just overwhelms any favorable Atlantic conditions. November and December are going to be weenie suicide season.

[UnionWeatherWx]

I'm inclined to agree here. I could see another backloaded winter like we had last year, especially if the Niño peaks early in the winter. We will be in good shape so long as ENSO doesn't become so sharply east-based that it just overwhelms any favorable Atlantic conditions. November and December are going to be weenie suicide season.

I wouldn't expect snow/multiple below freezing readings in November, as much as this board would agree with me.

[snowman19]

Pretty strong signal for a cool to very cool August right now Don, between the Nino taking over and the +PDO/+PNA. Also, increasing confidence by the day that this event is going to be historic. There is yet another very strong WWB taking shape....

Also of note, the strongest downwelling kelvin wave of this entire event has formed...

[donsutherland1]

The second El Niño case concerns the first of two super El Niño events that occurred during the closing two decades of the 20th century: 1982-83.

 

The 1982-83 winter featured two highlights. First, December 1982 saw the temperature reach a monthly high of 72° on December 4. That record would subsequently be beaten by a 74° temperature on the same day in 1998 and a maximum reading of 75° on December 7, 1998.

 

The second highlight concerned a major East Coast blizzard that occurred on February 11-12, 1983, which dumped 17.6" snow on New York City. That blizzard occurred during a 29-day period of blocking (1/29-2/26) during which the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative. The strongest period of blocking occurred during the 25-day stretch from 1/31 through 2/24. The AO was at or below -1 on 24 of those days, at or below -2 on 14 days, and at or below -3 on 2 days. The lowest AO figure was -3.410 on February 6. During this period, the Middle Atlantic Region saw readings that were, on average, somewhat warmer than normal, but there was enough cold to allow for the decade's most notable blizzard.

 

 

 

For New York City, the following summary provides a sketch of the outcomes that resulted, in part, during the 1982-83 El Niño winter:

 

December 1982:

Highs 50° or above: 15

Highs 60° or above: 7

Highs 32° or below: 2

Measurable snowfall: 1 day

Monthly snowfall: 3.0"

 

January 1983:

Highs 50° or above: 3

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 4

Measurable snowfall: 2 days

Monthly snowfall: 1.9"

 

February 1983:

Highs 50° or above: 6

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 4

Measurable snowfall: 4 days

Monthly snowfall: 21.5"

 

December 1982-February 1983 Totals:

Highs 50° or above: 24

Highs 60° or above: 7

Highs 32° or below: 10

Measurable snowfall: 7 days

December-February snowfall: 26.4"

 

Well after meteorological winter had ended, another 0.8" snow fell in New York City on April 19.

[Animal]

From what I have gathered in this thread, all signals finally point to a NW burb winter.

no more city and Long Island storms

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

From what I have gathered in this thread, all signals finally point to a NW burb winter.

no more city and Long Island storms

Not far NW though. You would need a lot of coastal/inland runners for that. If we get a +AO/+NAO, then NYC is pretty much screwed and the NW Suburbs will encounter multiple ice events. A -AO/+NAO can still suffice, but it will probably only work out for NYC and the NW Suburbs.

[Rjay]

From what I have gathered in this thread, all signals finally point to a NW burb winter.

no more city and Long Island storms

It's July 25th...

[PB GFI]

Good post Chris .

The NMNE , Euro the Jamstec SST profile promote riding on the WC as a result of a NEG EPO.

The warm 3.4 region alone does not F winter here. If you ever got a strong STJ feeding into a coastal track along with arriving HP through the lakes many here will b happy.

No one can be sure yet but some of the guidance is hinting the scenario is possible.

[snowman19]

We are not going to know for sure what is going to happen this winter until we get into November. The models are initializing with the GOA warm pool that is there now and assuming it's going to stay there through March. Like Isotherm showed, we had a similar look in 1997 until October hit, then a huge GOA vortex developed, massive upwelling commenced and by November the GOA was cold and it was hello +EPO. This is just a let's wait and see approach for the next 4 months before we make any confident calls. The only thing that is certain right now is that we are headed for a super El Niño event, the PDO remains to be seen for now....

[Eduardo]

Loving this thread. Quality posts by everyone!

Possible rookie question: Seems like the EPO becomes a big player in light of the Niño, but what could go wrong there? What caused the death vortex to form in 1997 that led to the collapse of the warm pool early in the winter? Does The orientation of the Niño itself drive this?

[nzucker]

Loving this thread. Quality posts by everyone!

Possible rookie question: Seems like the EPO becomes a big player in light of the Niño, but what could go wrong there? What caused the death vortex to form in 1997 that led to the collapse of the warm pool early in the winter? Does The orientation of the Niño itself drive this?

Yes if the Nino is east-based, it allows the typical Aleutian low to expand into the GoA and cause upwelling/cooler SSTs there. Then you lose the forcing for the -EPO.

[Isotherm]

We are not going to know for sure what is going to happen this winter until we get into November. The models are initializing with the GOA warm pool that is there now and assuming it's going to stay there through March. Like Isotherm showed, we had a similar look in 1997 until October hit, then a huge GOA vortex developed, massive upwelling commenced and by November the GOA was cold and it was hello +EPO. This is just a let's wait and see approach for the next 4 months before we make any confident calls. The only thing that is certain right now is that we are headed for a super El Niño event, the PDO remains to be seen for now....

 

 

My only disagreement is that the eventual peak magnitude of the El Nino event is not certain yet. The next several weeks are crucial as far as monitoring the development stages. The placement of warmest anomalies and orientation of the Nino is also uncertain. And of course, those factors will have ramifications insofar as the EPO modality.

[PB GFI]

I favor the look of the -EPO . The models advertise the greatest heat potential expanding west and as this matures into a basin wide NINO , come OND the greatest deviations from normal look to be in the 3.4 region.

Also different is the warm water this time around Australia which had a colder look in 97.

I try not speculate I am just going by the model output while trying to see what was different than 97 which could yield a different result.

[nzucker]

I favor the look of the -EPO . The models advertise the greatest heat potential expanding west and as this matures into a basin wide NINO , come OND the greatest deviations from normal look to be in the 3.4 region.

Also different is the warm water this time around Australia which had a colder look in 97.

I try not speculate I am just going by the model output while trying to see what was different than 97 which could yield a different result.

Should be an interesting winter with a strong/super Nino, tendency towards EPO blocking, and a developing solar minimum. I tend to think we'll see a lot of strong coastal huggers with inland snowfall, as well as some southern sliders or suppressed storms when it's a colder regime, but who knows..

[SnoSki14]

Just the prospects of an active storm track and above normal precip is exciting to think about. Despite having the snow, we haven't had a major powerhouse system in a while though there were close calls.

I know our winter could already be doomed snow wise but at least it'll unlikely be boring.

[snowman19]

I favor the look of the -EPO . The models advertise the greatest heat potential expanding west and as this matures into a basin wide NINO , come OND the greatest deviations from normal look to be in the 3.4 region.

Also different is the warm water this time around Australia which had a colder look in 97.

I try not speculate I am just going by the model output while trying to see what was different than 97 which could yield a different result.

The thing with 1997 is, we have played catchup till this point. This Nino had its major strengthening in July, 1997 had it's major strengthening in June. Now, we are catching up since we were a month behind. The upper ocean heat content anomalies in the eastern and central pacific just caught up with 1997 exactly, they are at the exact same number 1997 was at the end of July right now, +1.83C. Also, the waters around Austrialia continue to cool, they are getting hit with Antarctic outbreaks which is really dropping the SSTS there, the +IOD developing also enhances cooling waters around Austrialia and Indonesia

[PB GFI]

No doubt my 1.9 gets surpassed . However I can only go by the modeling and it is telling me that this expands west over time.

Seeing the models roast the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region allows me to think all is not lost " yet " .

Once we get to O and N most of the questions should be answered.

I am looking at the NMNE , Euro , CFSV2 and the Jamstec SST s if they are wrong then I will b wrong.

I can only go by the guidance and not on emotion .

Time will tell.

[nzucker]

Just the prospects of an active storm track and above normal precip is exciting to think about. Despite having the snow, we haven't had a major powerhouse system in a while though there were close calls.

I know our winter could already be doomed snow wise but at least it'll unlikely be boring.

We just missed on the January 26 system last year...Euro had it like 970mb just 75 miles east of NJ the day before...could have been a ferocious blizzard with two feet of snow, high winds, and coastal flooding. Just missed. OKX was calling for 24-36" that afternoon, remember.

Also February 14, 2014 could have been a huge system for the City had it not changed to rain. I still got a foot in Bay Ridge and southern Westchester had 16"...

Nemo in February 2013 also dumped 17" in Dobbs Ferry with around 10" at my workplace in Cypress Hills, Brooklyn. That storm could have been a monster if it had closed off a bit earlier. New England got slammed just like January 26, 2015. The early March 2013 ocean low/east wind event could have also been huge and was just 75 miles east.

Definitely been some close calls ans we are due for a Miller A sub 980mb Nor'easter bomb. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a February 1983 type system this winter considering the progged STJ. This winter could be a mix of 82-83 and 57-58. A little colder than the former but not as epic as the latter, which is the 3rd snowiest winter on record in Dobbs Ferry with 80" seasonal snowfall, just behind 95-96(82") and 60-61(90").

[SnoSki14]

I still cringe knowing how close we were last year although the media, nws should have known better when the Euro was a clear outlier.

It wasn't quite a March 2001 (got near 8" in January storm), but it was pretty close given those ridiculous 24-36" calls.

[dmillz25]

I still cringe knowing how close we were last year although the media, nws should have known better when the Euro was a clear outlier.

It wasn't quite a March 2001 (got near 8" in January storm), but it was pretty close given those ridiculous 24-36" calls.

The NAM and for a while the GGEM even the RGEM and UKMET was siding with the EURO. GFS was on its own. The GFS was right in this case

[JBG]

Strong Ninos tend to have some cold shots in fall...thinking of Nov 1997 and Oct 2009. 1972 also had a pretty cool fall, I believe. So the cold November/warm December couplet of the last few years might continue. December could be extremely warm, too.

 

 

there were a few early snowfalls in 1972...One in October and one in mid November...the October dusting started as rain...November's storm was rain ending as snow......it was followed by record cold...November 1972 was the wettest on record... the year without snow did have a few days with dustings and another one came in mid December...The next snowfall came at the end of January and was a rain to snow event from a coastal storm...If it was all snow it would have been 10"...There were a few storms that stayed south of us giving some places south of DC more snow than NYC...1982 had a cold snow event on Dec. 12th...1997 had a few dustings in December outside Manhattan...November was cool...this year could be the strongest nino or close to it...The year with the most snow (1982) had a mild fall...The older nino's from before 1950 did have a few that were snowy...1925-26 was saved by getting two major storms in one February week...1896-97 had snow in December and 43" for the season with a major storm at the end of January...

The JMA updated and is now +11...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

You're actually both right, to my recollection.  In 1972 October and November were quite cold; in fact Thanksgiving week shattered records. In mid-November we had the rain-to-snow event where the changeover line made it just below Danbury and then stopped.  December 15, 1972 had a nice front-end thump followed by a changeover to freezing rain and a brief change back to snow, and some positively frigid weather the next two days.

Early December 1997 had an inland snow event as well.  What both 1972-3 and 1997-8 lacked was a satisfying big storm, like February 11, 1983.  Those are matters of timing and luck, but the STJ does create the opportunity as well as, unfortunately, the warm air for a lot of the season.

[donsutherland1]

 

 

You're actually both right, to my recollection.  In 1972 October and November were quite cold; in fact Thanksgiving week shattered records. In mid-November we had the rain-to-snow event where the changeover line made it just below Danbury and then stopped.  December 15, 1972 had a nice front-end thump followed by a changeover to freezing rain and a brief change back to snow, and some positively frigid weather the next two days.

Early December 1997 had an inland snow event as well.  What both 1972-3 and 1997-8 lacked was a satisfying big storm, like February 11, 1983.  Those are matters of timing and luck, but the STJ does create the opportunity as well as, unfortunately, the warm air for a lot of the season.

December 22-23, 1997 was also a near-miss for the New York City area. Temperatures were in the upper 30s with a cold rain. Meanwhile, snow fell not too far away. Some examples: Albany: 4.6"; Boston: 6.8"; Bridgeport: 0.3"; Danbury: 0.7"; and, Storrs: 3.5"

[Isotherm]

No doubt my 1.9 gets surpassed . However I can only go by the modeling and it is telling me that this expands west over time.

Seeing the models roast the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region allows me to think all is not lost " yet " .

Once we get to O and N most of the questions should be answered.

I am looking at the NMNE , Euro , CFSV2 and the Jamstec SST s if they are wrong then I will b wrong.

I can only go by the guidance and not on emotion .

Time will tell.

 

 

>1.9C on the trimonthlies? That's far from a certainty IMO. Possible but definitely not a high-confidence forecast yet.

[snowman19]

December 22-23, 1997 was also a near-miss for the New York City area. Temperatures were in the upper 30s with a cold rain. Meanwhile, snow fell not too far away. Some examples: Albany: 4.6"; Boston: 6.8"; Bridgeport: 0.3"; Danbury: 0.7"; and, Storrs: 3.5"

December 1997 was warm, and basically snowless for the area, but the real blowtorch that winter started in January. Jan-Mar 1998 were wall to wall torches