SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 I highly doubt the Nino will be that strong. I see it staying just shy of strong territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 It's still way too early to tell how strong this El Niño will be. Many were speculating that this last winter would feature a strong event based on strong down welling and Kelvin waves which took place early on but dissipated into the weak event we have now. But it doesn't have to be strong to have an impact-the current event is definitely behind all the rain here in Texas for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Not convinced we'll see a strong Nino based on the last few not working out, but as as aside, if we were to get the right combo, you could get a HECS on the east coast given the moisture laden STJ and a well timed cold air source. The Blizzard of 1983 is a great example of a HECS in an otherwise snowless winter. Wasn't there more than a little help from a volcanic eruption on that one? Was it Mt. St. Helens or another one? I seem to recall some blunting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 14, 2015 Author Share Posted May 14, 2015 Wasn't there more than a little help from a volcanic eruption on that one? Was it Mt. St. Helens or another one? I seem to recall some blunting there.Mt St Helens erupted in 1980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 The winter of 1982-1983 was back-loaded like many El Nino's are. December 1982 was the warmest month of the winter coming in at +7.3 at NYC and 64 degrees on Christmas. The departure was +2.7 in January with colder temps arriving around mid to later January. February was +3.1 and featured the biggest snowstorm of the 1980's with around 20" in the heaviest band around the area. So we got our biggest snowstorm of the 1980's in one of the warmest winters of the decade.The moral of the story is that people will forgive warm in the winter only if a major snowstorm can find a way to sneak in. when you look back at 1982-83 it wasn't that bad...It had one great week with hardly nothing else like many winters of the past...1877-78 had one 8" storm on 3/31-2/1...only 8.1" fell for the season...1994-95 was another one storm winter with a storm 2/3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 That storm made it my favorite winter of the 1980's with 81-82 in second place and 86-87 in third. Agreed. The Feb 83 storm was the decades best . -It started around noon on that Friday and it went right to +S . I remember Craig Allen calling for 4 to 8 and we ended up with 20 in Brooklyn . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I remember sitting in school at around noon time with the breaks in the overcast to the north and dark skies to the south. Around 1PM it came in as a wall of snow and didn't let up. No snowstorm impressed me as much until January 1996. So patience was really a virtue for snowlovers back in those days. Those who missed the 80`s , never experienced pain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Those who missed the 80`s , never experienced pain . In more ways than one? lol You have to adjust for AGW when thinking about the effects of a super el nino. It would be nothing short of hysterical and it would be a long walk into uncharted territory. We're talking 80s in January and stuff like that. Mabye tornado outbreaks down in the southeast. If not here, then somewhere for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 In more ways than one? lol You have to adjust for AGW when thinking about the effects of a super el nino. It would be nothing short of hysterical and it would be a long walk into uncharted territory. We're talking 80s in January and stuff like that. Mabye tornado outbreaks down in the southeast. If not here, then somewhere for sure. Tornado outbreaks in the South are far from uncharted, even in January. Just the fact that El Niño events favor a very wet and stormy South, in general this would be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 That storm made it my favorite winter of the 1980's with 81-82 in second place and 86-87 in third. the 1980's was the last decade to have multiple record lows...the last time it was freezing in October was 1988...January 1990 was a big change...May 2015 is going to have another record high minimum tied...49 is the record set in a few years including 1982...This May is warm but it doesn't mean a hot summer coming up...2000, 1992 and 1996 had their hottest temperatures in May but the Summer was cool...The winters from 1980-81 to 1984-85 had three with zero temps...Four at Newark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Yeah, the last three consecutive daily record lows in NYC were with the April 1982 blizzard. the 21 degree record low on 4/7 was the coldest for so late in the season...that's the last time NYC had a benchmark low minimum...benchmark record highs were set on, 72 1/06/2007 75 2/24/1985 76 3/07/1987 85 3/13/1990 92 3/07/2010 96 4/17/2002 99 9/11/1983 77 11/20/1985 75 12/07/1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Those who missed the 80`s , never experienced pain . Have you heard 80s music? Eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxradar 30623 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Well a El nino might be a little too much rain here in san Diego CA, we do need the rain but not that much, last El Nino we had flash flooding and that one wasn't too strong. But if it becomes a strong El Nino then we are in trouble. I am going to watch the Models for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 14, 2015 Author Share Posted May 14, 2015 California needs this event to be as strong as possible to start putting a dent in the serious drought there. It's good to see the drought map in Texas and Oklahoma shrinking with the heavy Nino STJ convection setting up there. It's also encouraging to see the STJ getting strong enough for some rare May heavy rains in Southern California. Regardless of the current SST's, the Nino atmospheric response is on the strong side for May. As of now, this Nino is actually stronger/ahead of where we were back in May of 1997 (based on both MEI and surface and subsurface Nino region SSTS). The atmospheric response, as you mentioned with the Nino driven STJ is also impressive for so early in the event. The atmosphere is behaving like we already have a very mature Nino in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Have you heard 80s music? Eek lol , def painful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Music to MY ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 14, 2015 Author Share Posted May 14, 2015 The recent strong -SOI drop coupled with the strong westerly wind burst pattern is very impressive for the month of May.Given the major SOI drop and constant WWBs this month, the MEI should skyrocket. The last monster Kelvin wave that moved through really ramped things up big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 soi has dropped but not as low as 1997 yet... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 In more ways than one? lol You have to adjust for AGW when thinking about the effects of a super el nino. It would be nothing short of hysterical and it would be a long walk into uncharted territory. We're talking 80s in January and stuff like that. Mabye tornado outbreaks down in the southeast. If not here, then somewhere for sure. AGW makes almost no difference when talking about daily temperatures...the globe has warmed about 1.5F since the late 1800s with little warming since 1998. The chance of 80s in January is incredibly low regardless of whether we have an El Nino or not, and AGW has almost nothing to do with it. You should take your nonsense to the climate forum where it will be quickly dismantled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 15, 2015 Author Share Posted May 15, 2015 soi has dropped but not as low as 1997 yet... https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt It's getting close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 mei analogs if the el nino becomes strong... 1877-78......8.1" 1888-89....16.5" 1896-97....43.6" 1918-19......3.8" 1925-26....32.4" 1930-31....11.6" 1940-41....39.0" 1957-58....44.7" 1965-66....21.4" 1972-73......2.8" 1982-83....27.2" 1986-87....23.1" 1991-92....12.6" 1997-98......5.5" 40"...2/14 30"...2/14 20"...3/14 10"...3/14 02"...4/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 15, 2015 Author Share Posted May 15, 2015 As bluewave showed, classic El Niño pattern. The atmosphere is responding already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 If you follow the source of the jet that's been pointed at us here in the Southern Plains for weeks now, it's directly from the tropical eastern Pacific. It's been a very steady pattern with a STJ trough over the West and a very moist flow into Texas which has consistently fired T-storms and sent constant S/W energy. Today was another big rainmaker especially south of here, along with several tornadoes. It's hard to definitively say that the El Nino caused any particular weather event, but the pattern here has been pretty much textbook for El Nino, and the jet is coming from the warmed eastern Pacific. The problem for CA has been that the trough has been too deep for them and the jet has been too far south for much of the state to receive heavy rain-it's mostly been pointed into Mexico. The storminess here has also been aided by the Gulf of Mexico-but the triggers have come from the enhanced STJ. And the SW flow here doesn't look to be quitting anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 If you follow the source of the jet that's been pointed at us here in the Southern Plains for weeks now, it's directly from the tropical eastern Pacific. It's been a very steady pattern with a STJ trough over the West and a very moist flow into Texas which has consistently fired T-storms and sent constant S/W energy. Today was another big rainmaker especially south of here, along with several tornadoes. It's hard to definitively say that the El Nino caused any particular weather event, but the pattern here has been pretty much textbook for El Nino, and the jet is coming from the warmed eastern Pacific. The problem for CA has been that the trough has been too deep for them and the jet has been too far south for much of the state to receive heavy rain-it's mostly been pointed into Mexico. The storminess here has also been aided by the Gulf of Mexico-but the triggers have come from the enhanced STJ. And the SW flow here doesn't look to be quitting anytime soon.All the warm tropical SSTS and associated strong latent heat release and outflow from the El Nino related convection/thunderstorms really juice up the STJ. Textbook Nino pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Sorry for bumping in, but, what do you think is the reason the wet and stormy pattern is not translating for the NE/MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Sorry for bumping in, but, what do you think is the reason the wet and stormy pattern is not translating for the NE/MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Sorry for bumping in, but, what do you think is the reason the wet and stormy pattern is not translating for the NE/MA? The flow has been westerly/NW for some time now, on the polar jet in the Northeast, which is the potential downside to an El Nino when the STJ is strong and there isn't a mechanism to bring the moisture north-that polar jet crushes it south. If you look into the longer range, this looks to continue-there's a big PNA ridge that sets up in NW Canada on the polar jet and the same STJ pattern is pushing into the Southwest/Texas. In the winter, when a polar jet disturbance/clipper can phase with a STJ wave, or the STJ can overrun enough moisture, that's when the massive PDII, 2/11/83 blizzards can happen. And 97-98 came close to being a lot snowier for the Northeast, but the Pacific just overwhelmed the pattern too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 to me the jet stream is in a typical strong el nino track with a trof in the west and ridge in the east...The ridge is strong and the jet is to far west...eventually gulf moisture will get involved if this pattern continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 to me the jet stream is in a typical strong el nino track with a trof in the west and ridge in the east...The ridge is strong and the jet is to far west...eventually gulf moisture will get involved if this pattern continues...Some of the new long range model runs are spiking region 3.4 to +2.2C come December. If that's correct, this El Niño would rival '97-'98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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