Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[donsutherland1]

My guess is that August is going to be a very cool month in the east. The atmosphere is extremely coupled with the Nino at record levels. The Nino forcing is very, very strong

A cool August and possibly cool fall looks reasonable at this point in time. Then depending on what happens in Region 1+2, we'll see whether winter flips to a much milder pattern.

[uncle W]

technically, well maybe very technically, last year was not a NINO but about as warm a neutral as you can get

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

I keep forgetting they down graded the nino from a weak nino to a strong positive...it's senility...

[Isotherm]

 we got lucky in 10-11 but that won't happen again.

 

 

Why?

[Isotherm]

A cool August and possibly cool fall looks reasonable at this point in time. Then depending on what happens in Region 1+2, we'll see whether winter flips to a much milder pattern.

 

 

September tends to run warm in strong El Nino onset years, barring some exceptions. The strongest correlation for cold appears to be the month of October. Looking at 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, the former three were warm Septembers in the Northeast while the latter two were cool. For October, all 5 years were colder than average, a very strong signal. And November, 2 were warm (57/82) and 3 cool (65/72/97). Of course the sample size is fairly small.

[uncle W]

1997 and 1982 had cool August's...1972 had an average one...72 had a cold October and November but mild December...97 had a relatively cold October and Nov...82 had a mild October and November...some Novembers were warm...2009, 2006, 1982, 1963...in 2009 December was cold enough and Dec. 1963 cold...years with a snowstorm in December usually had another one or more in February...2009, 2002, 1982, 1968, 1963, 1957 had December snowstorms and above average February snowfall...

[Isotherm]

The way this Nino is going, the NMME may be correct. The CFS and ECMWF are showing similar peaks around the December timeframe as well and the POAMA is peaking it stronger and stronger with every update, it's playing catchup to the other models and started out way too low to begin with.

 

 

What are your thoughts on my previous post regarding the ECMWF / CFS / GMAO historical accuracy? In recent +ENSO years, they have overestimated the magnitude of the El Nino quite significantly from the July forecast.

[snowman19]

What are your thoughts on my previous post regarding the ECMWF / CFS / GMAO historical accuracy? In recent +ENSO years, they have overestimated the magnitude of the El Nino quite significantly from the July forecast.

The thing is, this year, the models have been underestimating and underforecasting the warmth we have had and have now so far up until this point...

[donsutherland1]

September tends to run warm in strong El Nino onset years, barring some exceptions. The strongest correlation for cold appears to be the month of October. Looking at 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, the former three were warm Septembers in the Northeast while the latter two were cool. For October, all 5 years were colder than average, a very strong signal. And November, 2 were warm (57/82) and 3 cool (65/72/97). Of course the sample size is fairly small.

By fall, I was referring to the September-November anomaly. It's plausible that September could prove warm, though not assured.

[uncle W]

1972, 1982, 1997 Sept-Nov temps...1982 had a mild Autumn...in the NE...it also was the snowiest of the three but that ain't saying much...

[Isotherm]

There have been some changes in the Atlantic SSTA profile over the past couple months. Significant warming in the far north Atlantic west / east of Greenland, and expansion southeastward of the NATL cold pool.

 

June 1:

 

 

 

 

 

Now:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Pacific obviously continues to run very warm via the +PDO / ++ENSO.

[Isotherm]

July 22nd 1997 SSTA profile -

 

Notice the western ENSO regions are cooler vs. now; the area near Australia is colder vs. now, and the ENSO regions 1+2 are significantly warmer than present. While our current set-up is east based, the direction we're headed is less apparent compared to 1997. It's possible that this event is east based; however, I think we're going to transition into a basin-wide event over the next few months.

 

[PB GFI]

July 22nd 1997 SSTA profile -

 

Notice the western ENSO regions are cooler vs. now; the area near Australia is colder vs. now, and the ENSO regions 1+2 are significantly warmer than present. While our current set-up is east based, the direction we're headed is less apparent compared to 1997. It's possible that this event is east based; however, I think we're going to transition into a basin-wide event over the next few months.

 

[snowman19]

July 22nd 1997 SSTA profile -

Notice the western ENSO regions are cooler vs. now; the area near Australia is colder vs. now, and the ENSO regions 1+2 are significantly warmer than present. While our current set-up is east based, the direction we're headed is less apparent compared to 1997. It's possible that this event is east based; however, I think we're going to transition into a basin-wide event over the next few months.

If 3.4 really does peak at +2.7C in December, would it cause the EPO to go neutral or positive like you said? Should be interesting

[PB GFI]

If 3.4 really does peak at +2.7C in December, would it cause the EPO to go neutral or positive like you said? Should be interesting

 

It will depend on if the warmer waters  that are present now in the EPO region get eaten into/ and by how much  this fall .

Right now the modeling as per the Euro seasonal @ 500 shows a ridge on the PAC west coast . 

 

But If the warm water in the GOA gets beaten back then you ruin the - EPO,  the speed of the signal change is what to watch for this fall. 

[snowman19]

It will depend on if the warmer waters that are present now in the EPO region get eaten into/ and by how much this fall .

Right now the modeling as per the Euro seasonal @ 500 shows a ridge on the PAC west coast .

But If the warm water in the GOA gets beaten back then you ruin the - EPO, the speed of the signal change is what to watch for this fall.

I think October will be the important month when wavelengths start really changing, what you don't want to see is a GOA vortex (+EPO) develop, if we loose the warm GOA like Isotherm thinks may happen, then we definitely need a strongly -AO and -NAO. I don't think a +PDO and +PNA would help at that point without a stout -EPO in place, lots of questions going forward that will have to be answered in real time

[PB GFI]

J-M 500 

[PB GFI]

I do not think we lose the - EPO . The Euro, CFSV2 and the JAMSTEC all see the - EPO .

 

You will see a basin wide event , but i believe once into N-D you will see the warmest waters in the 3.4 region .

Then should begin to retrace lower once into Jan .

 

I do agree with Tom you are probably looking at LA NINA next year , so the fall could be pretty quick 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

J-M 500

This looks like a "wait and see" type of situation. This Ridge to Trough configuration is something I have never seen before. Has anyone else seen something like this?

[donsutherland1]

This looks like a "wait and see" type of situation. This Ridge to Trough configuration is something I have never seen before. Has anyone else seen something like this?

I agree. It's still too soon to judge. To illustrate how uncommon the current combination of ENSO warmth and the PDO is, during the August-November period, there were only two years in which the PDO was +1 or above and both ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 had anomalies of +1°C or above: 1987 and 1997. The former case then saw ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies cool rapidly during the winter with cool anomalies taking hold. The latter saw no such trend.

[snowman19]

The reason that several of the models feature a -EPO pattern with such a strong El Nino

is due to those models extending the warm SST's west into the Nino 4 region. Stronger

El Ninos like 82-83 and 97-98 were more east based during the winter so the EPO

was positive. The models are showing now what appears to be a hybrid event.

They are producing the -EPO that we saw with weaker events like last winter, 09-10, and 02-03

since the Nino 4 levels were so warm.

El Nino 4 composite favors a -EPO

NINO4.gif

Euro showing record Nino 4 levels beyond the +1.3 weekly readings set during the 02-03 and 09-10 events.

Last winter was just below those levels at +1.2.

get_legacy_plot-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-68iE78.gif

If there is really a December peak of +2.7C (strongest super El Niño ever), I don't think many will be calling for a cold and snowy winter

[snowman19]

It depends where the exact teleconnections line up as to how much cold and or snow portions of the East get.

The Euro through NDJ keeps the -EPO and colder temperatures with a 97-98 STJ near record moisture feed

from the tropics. The Euro is keying in more on Nino 4 for the primary forcing region even though it

has Nino 3.4's in the high range that you mentioned. If we see a warmer -EPO event , then it will favor

the higher elevations and interior sections from North Carolina into the NE for the heaviest snows. A colder

pattern especially late would allow the snows to extend down to the coast.

Here is the Nino 3.4 forecast

ECMWF model 2 2.4 2.7 3 3

The Euro is showing the strongest Nino in history come September

[Rittenhouse]

I think October will be the important month when wavelengths start really changing, what you don't want to see is a GOA vortex (+EPO) develop, if we loose the warm GOA like Isotherm thinks may happen, then we definitely need a strongly -AO and -NAO. I don't think a +PDO and +PNA would help at that point without a stout -EPO in place, lots of questions going forward that will have to be answered in real time

 

For what it's worth, the NAO is the most negative it has been since the summer of 2009. The El Nino events of 2009 and 1957 are the only other El Nino years to feature unusually negative NAO indices in July. In both of these years, the NAO remained negative for much of the following winter. For 2009-2010 and 1957-1958, the NAO- was able to keep enough of the cold air locked in for the coastal areas to receive big snows. 

 

Both of those El Nino events were not as strong as this year's is currently forecasted to be. But it seems to me that a Greenland block would prevent another 1997-1998 kind of winter. In fact, a "super" El Nino and a blocking pattern a la 2009-2010 sounds like a recipe for a brutal winter (lots of big front-end snows and CAD events).

 

I'm very skeptical that a strong El Nino necessarily leads to a wet and warm winter for the Northeast. There simply has not been enough strong El Nino winters to make any statistically meaningful predictions. Looking at other teleconnections, the 1997-1998 winter would have been pretty warm and wet for us regardless of the "Super" El Nino. My guess is that this year's El Nino will lead to more volatile patterns, with snowstorms followed by unseasonable warm spells.

[SnowGoose69]

For what it's worth, the NAO is the most negative it has been since the summer of 2009. The El Nino events of 2009 and 1957 are the only other El Nino years to feature unusually negative NAO indices in July. In both of these years, the NAO remained negative for much of the following winter. For 2009-2010 and 1957-1958, the NAO- was able to keep enough of the cold air locked in for the coastal areas to receive big snows. 

 

Both of those El Nino events were not as strong as this year's is currently forecasted to be. But it seems to me that a Greenland block would prevent another 1997-1998 kind of winter. In fact, a "super" El Nino and a blocking pattern a la 2009-2010 sounds like a recipe for a brutal winter (lots of big front-end snows and CAD events).

 

I'm very skeptical that a strong El Nino necessarily leads to a wet and warm winter for the Northeast. There simply has not been enough strong El Nino winters to make any statistically meaningful predictions. Looking at other teleconnections, the 1997-1998 winter would have been pretty warm and wet for us regardless of the "Super" El Nino. My guess is that this year's El Nino will lead to more volatile patterns, with snowstorms followed by unseasonable warm spells.

 

The sample size on strong Ninos being poor here is bigger I think.  I want to say 1918-19 is believed to have been a strong El Nino and NYC had only 3.8 inches of snow.  I also think 1877-78 and 1900-01 were Ninos which had 8.1 and 9 inches of snow respectively.  I don't know how reliable pegging those years as El Ninos is though.

[snowman19]

For what it's worth, the NAO is the most negative it has been since the summer of 2009. The El Nino events of 2009 and 1957 are the only other El Nino years to feature unusually negative NAO indices in July. In both of these years, the NAO remained negative for much of the following winter. For 2009-2010 and 1957-1958, the NAO- was able to keep enough of the cold air locked in for the coastal areas to receive big snows.

Both of those El Nino events were not as strong as this year's is currently forecasted to be. But it seems to me that a Greenland block would prevent another 1997-1998 kind of winter. In fact, a "super" El Nino and a blocking pattern a la 2009-2010 sounds like a recipe for a brutal winter (lots of big front-end snows and CAD events).

I'm very skeptical that a strong El Nino necessarily leads to a wet and warm winter for the Northeast. There simply has not been enough strong El Nino winters to make any statistically meaningful predictions. Looking at other teleconnections, the 1997-1998 winter would have been pretty warm and wet for us regardless of the "Super" El Nino. My guess is that this year's El Nino will lead to more volatile patterns, with snowstorms followed by unseasonable warm spells.

'97-'98 wouldn't have been bad for us, had it not been for ENSO. The super, raging El Niño that was in place totally dominated with the STJ and overwhelmed the pattern big time. The AO and NAO were actually not bad that winter they just got overran by the super Nino forcing

[SnowGoose69]

'97-'98 wouldn't have been bad for us, had it not been for ENSO. The super, raging El Niño that was in place totally dominated with the STJ and overwhelmed the pattern big time. The AO and NAO were actually not bad that winter they just got overran by the super Nino forcing

 

There was a ton of bad luck too.  There was several cases of bad timing, its really hard to get a snowless winter here even when its as mild as that winter was.  Remember, we have had 2 winters since then that were warmer and definitely drier yet both had one mid winter snow event of 2-4 inches and several other near misses. 

[donsutherland1]

The sample size on strong Ninos being poor here is bigger I think.  I want to say 1918-19 is believed to have been a strong El Nino and NYC had only 3.8 inches of snow.  I also think 1877-78 and 1900-01 were Ninos which had 8.1 and 9 inches of snow respectively.  I don't know how reliable pegging those years as El Ninos is though.

1877-78 was arguably the 19th century's biggest El Niño event.

[donsutherland1]

Over the next few days, I'll be posting some information from a number of strong El Niño events that had, at least, begun with basin-wide El Niño conditions and a PDO+. Those events will be 1965-66 (which is discussed in this post), 1982-83, 1997-98, and a hypothetical extreme scenario given that some of the guidance suggests that the current strengthening event could become the strongest on record. Right now, though, it is too soon to know how things will ultimately unfold.

 

 

 

The 1965-66 El Niño saw a brief and slight PDO+ in December return to a PDO- in January. At the same time, a severe blocking regime developed in January. The monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index was as follows:

 

December 1965: +0.163

January 1966: -3.232

February 1966: -1.438

 

Currently, such tools as the Snow Advance Index (SAI) provide a weak hint of the predominant winter AO state. However, as the last two winters have demonstrated, particularly last winter, the relationship is weak. So, the development of such blocking, if it is to occur this winter, might not become apparent until it appears on the ensembles.

 

For New York City, the following summary provides a sketch of the outcomes that resulted, in part, during the 1965-66 El Niño winter:

 

December 1965:

Highs 50° or above: 11

Highs 60° or above: 1

Highs 32° or below: 1

Measurable snowfall: 0 days

Monthly snowfall: Trace

 

January 1966:

Highs 50° or above: 3

Highs 60° or above: 1

Highs 32° or below: 8

Measurable snowfall: 6 days

Monthly snowfall: 11.6"

 

February 1966:

Highs 50° or above: 6

Highs 60° or above: 0

Highs 32° or below: 3

Measurable snowfall: 5 days

Monthly snowfall: 9.8"

 

December 1965-February 1966 Totals:

Highs 50° or above: 11

Highs 60° or above: 2

Highs 32° or below: 12

Measurable snowfall: 11 days

December-February snowfall: 21.4"

[JBG]

FWIW . Its is so far away and only 1 signal , but the above post would not make me feel good about seeing a trough on the EC.

A wet WC would not be a welcome sight here for cold and snow .

You want to see the ridge on the WC , so it forces HP over the top and through the lakes . If that JET is crashing into the WC non stop , then you flood the country with PAC air.

There are so many variables here, I would not look at any one signal this far out .

1968-9 had both a warm West Coast and good I-95 and overall East Coast snows.

[jm1220]

'97-'98 wouldn't have been bad for us, had it not been for ENSO. The super, raging El Niño that was in place totally dominated with the STJ and overwhelmed the pattern big time. The AO and NAO were actually not bad that winter they just got overran by the super Nino forcing

97-98 wasn't a bad inland winter. The Appalachian Spine had some good snow events, some at very marginal conditions. State College, PA had a 13" snow event on Feb 23, 1998 with temps at 33-34, and had a slightly above average winter for snow (about 50"). There was just a flood of warm air that winter.

[bkviking]

Kudos to our sub forum for best analysis of El Niño on board, including the one in the main forum