Isotherm Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 IRI multi-model probabilistic guidance from this month, valid the trimonthly period centered on December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 IRI multi-model probabilistic guidance from this month, valid the trimonthly period centered on December: all of the seasonal guidance is looking similar, if not darn near the sameI just hope they're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 Falling further behind 1997 especially in Nino 1+2 but close in 3 and 3.4 and ahead in 4. 08JUL2015 3.3 2.1 1.5 1.1 15JUL2015 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.0 16JUL1997 4.1 2.5 1.8 0.7 This event is warmer than 1997 further west in the Central Pacific and much warmer off the US PAC NW Coast EPO region. You can also see how much cooler the SST's are now near the South American Coast. sst.gif The explosive strengthening in 1997 happened in June, this year it's happening in July. It is catching up to 1997 now. The eastern region warming is ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 Check this out. If this isn't screaming historic, I don't know what is https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/622749752988295168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 nino 1+2 fell a little bit from +3.3 to +2.9...in 97-98 nino 1+2 was above 3.0 for eight months...June to Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 As noted on a number of occasions, things are not yet cast in stone. Although the all-important Region 1+2 anomaly cooled somewhat to +2.9°C from +3.3°C last week, it is still warmer than had been modeled at this point in time. Moreover, only the super El Niño events (1982-83 and 1997-98) saw this anomaly reach or exceed +3.0°C. However, this is probably the most difficult ENSO region to forecast. Anomalies of +1.0°C or above during the winter would be consistent with widespread North American warmth so anomalies in this region will need to be monitored closely. Region 1+2 anomalies below +1.0°C would increase the likelihood for larger areas of cold anomalies. Region 3.4 is continuing to warm and is now up to +1.7°C (strong El Niño threshold). Of course, final classification of this still developing El Niño event will depend on the tri-monthly data. For now, the data indicate that a strong El Niño is very likely and a super El Niño remains a distinct possibility. Moreover, unlike with recent El Niño events, this event will very likely be a basin-wide one, not a Central Pacific-oriented one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 nino 1+2 fell a little bit from +3.3 to +2.9...in 97-98 nino 1+2 was above 3.0 for eight months...June to Feb....The thing that really stands out when looking at the ssts right now, is the total lack of a cold tongue west of South America. That is a staple of very strong/super El Niño events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 The warming this time is situated further west than it was in 1997. You can see how the current subsurface doesn't have nearly as much warmth close to the South American Coast and El Nino 1+2 regions as 1997 did. I think that's why the models focus the greatest further warming from El Nino 3, 3.4, and 4. But we'll see how the models verify on this heading into August. We have such a tiny sample size of only 2 very strong El Ninos since 1950 that one size may not fit all. July 2015 IDYOC002.201507.jpg July 1997 IDYOC002.199707.jpg I think, like Don said, this is clearly going to be a basin wide event. Region 1+2 is very volatile as everyone knows, but the models have been underestimating the warmth and initializing too low and not warm enough in both regions 1+2 and 3 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Updated SST anomaly maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 As noted on a number of occasions, things are not yet cast in stone. Although the all-important Region 1+2 anomaly cooled somewhat to +2.9°C from +3.3°C last week, it is still warmer than had been modeled at this point in time. Moreover, only the super El Niño events (1982-83 and 1997-98) saw this anomaly reach or exceed +3.0°C. However, this is probably the most difficult ENSO region to forecast. Anomalies of +1.0°C or above during the winter would be consistent with widespread North American warmth so anomalies in this region will need to be monitored closely. Region 1+2 anomalies below +1.0°C would increase the likelihood for larger areas of cold anomalies. Region 3.4 is continuing to warm and is now up to +1.7°C (strong El Niño threshold). Of course, final classification of this still developing El Niño event will depend on the tri-monthly data. For now, the data indicate that a strong El Niño is very likely and a super El Niño remains a distinct possibility. Moreover, unlike with recent El Niño events, this event will very likely be a basin-wide one, not a Central Pacific-oriented one. Years like 1957 and 1965 featured very warm (>1.0c) anomalies even in regions 1+2, yet still produced winters that were significantly colder than the 72/82/97 trio, especially in the Eastern US. December 1957 SSTA: December 1965 SSTA: I think the real key is the extension westward of the warm / very warm anomalies. The above normal warmth along the South American coast doesn't need to be a death sentence insofar as cold winter opportunities are concerned. 1957/1965 were more basin-wide strong Nino's in which the warmth in the east regions effectively spread west into region 3.4, and to a lesser extent, region 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Australian BOM updates http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Issued on 21 July 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00 The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. Weakened (or reversed) trade winds have resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. All key ENSO ocean monitoring areas have been more than 1 °C above average for 10 successive weeks—two weeks longer than the record in 1997. The eastern tropical Pacific is now at or exceeding +2 °C. In the atmosphere, the past week has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) drop to around −20, the lowest values of the event so far. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to strengthen, and is expected to persist into early 2016. El Niño events typically peak during the late austral spring or early summer, and then weaken in the new year. El Niño often brings below average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country during the second half of the year. However, other factors, such as temperatures to the north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean, also affect Australia's climate, meaning El Niño is not the only influence on rainfall and temperature changes. Read more about how El Niño might affect Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. A positive IOD event remains possible, with three of the five international models suggesting a positive IOD is likely during late winter to spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia. Model outlooks All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of 2015. Weekly sea surface temperatures Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have continued to increase over the eastern to central equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies extend along the equator from the South American coastline to about 160°E. Anomalies for the week ending 19 July exceeded +2 °C across nearly all of the eastern equatorial Pacific, reaching more than +3 °C in small areas. All five NINO indices again exceeded +1 °C this week, bringing the run to 10 consecutive weeks and exceeding the eight consecutive weeks recorded in 1997. Both NINO3 and NINO3.4 again recorded their warmest weekly value since the 1997–98 El Niño. Warm anomalies persist across most of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, extending down the western coastline of North America, and have increased in the northwest of the Basin, between the coast of Japan and the Date Line. Warm anomalies are also present along parts of the east coast of Australia, in areas to Australia's west, and across much of the Indian Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 Subsurface anomalies are warming and expanding once again. Areas of +7C showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 The new run of the NMME is peaking this Nino at +2.6C-+2.7C around December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 The new run of the NMME is peaking this Nino at +2.6C-+2.7C around December Do you think it's to high or to low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 Do you think it's to high or to low?The way this Nino is going, the NMME may be correct. The CFS and ECMWF are showing similar peaks around the December timeframe as well and the POAMA is peaking it stronger and stronger with every update, it's playing catchup to the other models and started out way too low to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 (Just wha I think) The current El Nino is unlikely to have the warming effect that the "Super El Nino" of 97-98 had. This is because that El Nino was combined with a very strong Positive (warm) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which made for a "perfect storm" in terms of global high temps. The current PDO is only mildly positive, which will lessen the effect of this El Nino. And, BTW when you look at the raw satellite data the planet has never been as warm as it was in 1998. The people in California are going bonkers. Thanks to the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 (Just wha I think) The current El Nino is unlikely to have the warming effect that the "Super El Nino" of 97-98 had. This is because that El Nino was combined with a very strong Positive (warm) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which made for a "perfect storm" in terms of global high temps. The current PDO is only mildly positive, which will lessen the effect of this El Nino. And, BTW when you look at the raw satellite data the planet has never been as warm as it was in 1998. The people in California are going bonkers. Thanks to the media. The current PDO is very strongly positive actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 The current PDO is very strongly positive actually http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest It was +1.5 last month, considering it has been as high as +2.5 and had declined to +1.2 before a slight rise, I wouldn't classify it as very strongly positive by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 anyone have any guesses on whether this El nino lingers into the following winter 16-17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest It was +1.5 last month, considering it has been as high as +2.5 and had declined to +1.2 before a slight rise, I wouldn't classify it as very strongly positive by any stretch. note that the PDO was figured differently before 2002, so I don't know if that makes any difference or whether it means we can't have an "apples to apples" comparison maybe someone who knows could chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 anyone have any guesses on whether this El nino lingers into the following winter 16-17? I think we get a La Niña winter 16-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 I think we get a La Niña winter 16-17. frankly, living in the Mid Atlantic, I fear the far right side of the CFS2 (and most other models) 3.4 forecast graph than what it shows for JAN, 2016 lol http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 anyone have any guesses on whether this El nino lingers into the following winter 16-17? JAMSTEC 2 year plot heads towards a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Too bad the ECMWF cuts the top portion of the US off on the public maps. But the NDJ has a 02/03 -EPO/+PNA but a +NAO. You can see the absolutely raging STJ through Mexico and up the East Coast. get_legacy_plot-atls07-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-k5dVJA.gif get_legacy_plot-atls07-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-rTFo1W.gif Per Ginxwx in the NE forum who has access to the Euro l/r progs, you/we can extrapolate that map and be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 I think we get a La Niña winter 16-17. 82-83, 97-98, and 09-10 all went to La Ninas immediately after and decently strong ones too, although 83-84 was probably the weakest out of the 3. There definitely is some sort of tendency for the ocean circulation to want to go La Nina after a big El Nino for whatever reason. We want to avoid a 98-99 or 10-11 La Nina if possible though, we got lucky in 10-11 but that won't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 True story, however the trade off is that we see temperatures that may rival 2011/2012 at least one month during DJF. Considering how badly California needs the rain, I will take the tradeoff so they can break the back of the drought they are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 the big three nino's were one year events...this year is a second year event...1939-40-1941-42 was the last three straight el nino years on the mei scale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 the big three nino's were one year events...this year is a second year event...1939-40-1941-42 was the last three straight el nino years on the mei scale... technically, well maybe very technically, last year was not a NINO but about as warm a neutral as you can get http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Consistent with some strong or rapidly strengthening El Niño events, the CFSv2 is now showing a large area of cool anomalies in the East. The very strong PDO+ and related persistent PNA+ regime should promote another warm month in the Pacific Northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23, 2015 Author Share Posted July 23, 2015 Consistent with some strong or rapidly strengthening El Niño events, the CFSv2 is now showing a large area of cool anomalies in the East. The very strong PDO+ and related persistent PNA+ regime should promote another warm month in the Pacific Northwest My guess is that August is going to be a very cool month in the east. The atmosphere is extremely coupled with the Nino at record levels. The Nino forcing is very, very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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