easternsnowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I agree. Super El Niño now all but guaranteed. All we can hope for is that SST anomalies are not near +3.0C come November like some models are showing on the new runs, If they are, it will be over before it starts... poconos and catskills will be good and probably northwest jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 The interesting thing about the NDJ Euro forecast showing a Pacific side with a -EPO like 2002-2003 is it's one of the warmest models out there for Nino 3.4. It must be the model putting more emphasis on the warmer waters pushing west into Nino 4 and keeping the warm pool off of the Pacific NW. We'll see if it holds serve when the DJF and JFM comes out. .........................JAS..ASO..SON..OND..NDJ ECMWF model... 2... .2.4.... 2.7.... 3..... 3 ECMWF NDJ Pacific side representation PAC.png The European does a few things. It's spreads the warmer water west. It cools the 1.2 region and keeps the neg epo in tact. So at 500 a huge ridge goes over the top connected thru the Caspian and it forces the colder anamolies underneath. And more specifically it's colder to our south relative to averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 We now have a southern hemisphere "booster" circulation showing up. This phenomenon is very rare and only seen in super El Ninos. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059370/abstract https://mobile.twitter.com/strawn_04/status/622380083517394945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Yeah, that would be our first set up like that since 1950 with such a strong El Nino event. 97-98 and 82-83 had the warmest anomalies in Nino 1+2. The Euro spreads the warmer water further west into the Central Pacific Nino 4 region and leaves the -EPO in tact. But we have been no stranger to firsts during the recent decade. The winter of 2010-2011 was our snowiest and most neg AO with a strong La Nina and -PDO. Last winter featured our first strong -EPO/+PNA /+AO/+NAO with high snow totals and record cold since 1950 also. So here's to hoping that the Euro is correct in another first next winter for us. Here is to hoping the crappy CFSV2 is right ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 The thermal ocean budget at 200m is massively larger than it was in 97-98.Eric Blake just tweeted this, but take a look at the change in the thermocline in just 10 days, this is nuts https://mobile.twitter.com/ericblake12/status/622425772347621378 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Precip should be well above normal correct? Looks like a great winter incoming for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Precip should be well above normal correct? Looks like a great winter incoming for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 FWIW . Its is so far away and only 1 signal , but the above post would not make me feel good about seeing a trough on the EC. A wet WC would not be a welcome sight here for cold and snow . You want to see the ridge on the WC , so it forces HP over the top and through the lakes . If that JET is crashing into the WC non stop , then you flood the country with PAC air. There are so many variables here, I would not look at any one signal this far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Eric Blake just tweeted this, but take a look at the change in the thermocline in just 10 days, this is nuts https://mobile.twitter.com/ericblake12/status/622425772347621378 Not much of a surprise. We'll have to see how things play out farther down the road. One should bear in mind that the subsurface anomalies are not static. They are dynamic, as well. It will be interesting to see the next set of figures that come out on Monday, both for ENSO region anomalies and also subsurface anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Not much of a surprise. We'll have to see how things play out farther down the road. One should bear in mind that the subsurface anomalies are not static. They are dynamic, as well. It will be interesting to see the next set of figures that come out on Monday, both for ENSO region anomalies and also subsurface anomalies.Don, did you see my post from earlier today in this thread about the southern hemisphere booster circulation that has developed? It is a circulation that is very rare and only occurs during super El Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 FWIW, one of the major reasons one has to pay attention to ENSO Region 1+2 is that exceptional warmth there would distort the overall pattern. A strong EPO- would not, contrary to usual teleconnections rules, bring about cold conditions in the East, at least in December. In fact, if past cases when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly reached or exceeded +1.0°C are representative, the East would be confronted with warmer to much warmer than normal readings. Below are 500 mb height anomaly and surface temperature anomaly maps for the December 1950-2014 cases when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 1.0°C or above and the EPO was -1.0 or below: For further illustration, below are mean temperatures: ENSO Region 1+2: +1.0°C or above; EPO -1.0 or below: Boston: 37.8° New York City: 41.7° Philadelphia: 41.1° ENSO Region 1+2: +1.0°C or above; EPO +1.0 or above: Boston: 33.2° New York City: 38.1° Philadelphia: 37.9° December Normal Temperatures (1981-2010 Base Period): Boston: 34.7° New York City: 37.5° Philadelphia: 37.5° Fortunately, Region 1+2 is probably the least predictable region, so it's still too soon to assume that this ENSO region will be exceptionally warm, though the prospects for such an outcome have been increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Don, did you see my post from earlier today in this thread about the southern hemisphere booster circulation that has developed? It is a circulation that is very rare and only occurs during super El Ninos I missed it, but have gone back and found it. I believe the rapid warming in Region 1+2 to above +3°C, continuing warming of subsurface readings (areas of +7°C) and the booster circulation you mentioned all indicate that odds of a super El Niño event are growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 For further illustration, below are mean temperatures: ENSO Region 1+2: +1.0°C or above; EPO -1.0 or below: Boston: 337.8° New York City: 41.7° Philadelphia: 41.1° I would hate to live in Boston with an ENSO 1+2 of 1.0 C and EPO -1.0 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I would hate to live in Boston with an ENSO 1+2 of 1.0 C and EPO -1.0 C. Typo. 37.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Typo. 37.8°. how many times has this occurred in Dec? ENSO Region 1+2: +1.0°C or above; EPO -1.0 or below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 how many times has this occurred in Dec? ENSO Region 1+2: +1.0°C or above; EPO -1.0 or below: 23 days. Years: 1972, 1982, and 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 I missed it, but have gone back and found it. I believe the rapid warming in Region 1+2 to above +3°C, continuing warming of subsurface readings (areas of +7°C) and the booster circulation you mentioned all indicate that odds of a super El Niño event are growing.Everything is now lined up for a super event. The +IOD is getting stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 FWIW . Its is so far away and only 1 signal , but the above post would make me feel good about seeing a trough on the EC. A wet WC would not be a welcome sight here for cold and snow . You want to see the ridge on the WC , so it forces HP over the top and through the lakes . If that JET is crashing into the WC non stop , then you flood the country with PAC air. There are so many variables here, I would not look at any one signal this far out . Any PAC air that floods in will be super moderated. You may want to give up your snow desires in order to allow the west coast drought to ease up. In the end, it's irrelevant but it's good to have respect in mind. At this point. I firmly believe and/or think the sequestered ocean heat from the 2007-2012 era is coming back to haunt us which is tied in with a plethora of other factors beyond the scope of this forum (apparently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 The record breaking MJO with the developing El Nino continues to produce. ...JULY RAINFALL RECORDS BROKEN AT LINDBERGH FIELD...SAN DIEGO... THERE IS A NEW RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD. TODAY AS OF 330 PM 1.03 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THIS BEATS THE OLD RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WHICH WAS 0.92 IN 1902. THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE WAS 0.01 IN 1922. ...DAILY PRECIP RECORD BROKEN OR TIED ON MAY 14 2015 ...LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD PERIOD OF RECORDSAN DIEGO 1.63 0.40 IN 1884 1850THIS ALSO SET THE ALL-TIME RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR MAY AT SANDIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.49 INCHES ON MAY 8 1977. July 14, 2015 (Released Thursday July 16, 2015) Valid 8 a.m. EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 Any PAC air that floods in will be super moderated. You may want to give up your snow desires in order to allow the west coast drought to ease up. In the end, it's irrelevant but it's good to have respect in mind. At this point. I firmly believe and/or think the sequestered ocean heat from the 2007-2012 era is coming back to haunt us which is tied in with a plethora of other factors beyond the scope of this forum (apparently). The chances of California staying dry in a super El Niño are slim to none. There will be a firehose STJ aimed right at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 The chances of California staying dry in a super El Niño are slim to none. There will be a firehose STJ aimed right at them. True story, however the trade off is that we see temperatures that may rival 2011/2012 at least one month during DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 23 days. Years: 1972, 1982, and 1997.the means you posted were for all 93 days or just the 23 days? With LR modeling indicating a more persistent EPO encompassing a majority of days in Dec it stands to reason outcomes of temperature means could be much different than with transient neg EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 They will put a dent in that next winter, and hopefully a large one. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/618904868682489856?lang=en NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png NMME_ensemble_z200_season5.png PAC NW tho. If it pans out verbatim next year's wildfire season would be sick up there depending on various factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A quick set of statistics for warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies and a PDO+. Days with highs of 32° or below and measurable snowfall are just over 50% less frequent than for the entire December-February timeframe since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 A quick set of statistics for warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies and a PDO+. Days with highs of 32° or below and measurable snowfall are just over 50% less frequent than for the entire December-February timeframe since 1950. I guess we'll just have to take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I guess we'll just have to take what we can get. Such a scenario isn't yet cast in stone. It's a possibility and the odds are likely increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 nino 1+2 is 3.3 as of July 8th...1997 had almost a year with nino 1+2 over 2.7 and eight months over 3.1... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 If the Nino stays strong and is basin wide, I think it's a given for a mild winter. We should see a good amount of nor'easters with an active sub tropical jet. I remember 97-98 being extremely stormy with several intense coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 the means you posted were for all 93 days or just the 23 days? With LR modeling indicating a more persistent EPO encompassing a majority of days in Dec it stands to reason outcomes of temperature means could be much different than with transient neg EPO Just the 23 days when the EPO was -1 or below. There were also 34 days when the EPO was +1 or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I see quite a few posts that are premature considering the lead time and the uncertainty associated with model prognostications. I did some research regarding IRI model forecast accuracy from the lead time of July, with respect to the ensuing cold season, and the results demonstrate that ENSO values often verify 0.5-1.0C warmer/colder than the July model mean forecasts indicates. For example - the following are July statistical / dynamical model mean forecasts for the peak region 3.4 value, and the corresponding "actual" peak: 2002-03: July statistical forecast: 1.0c July dynamical forecast: 0.9c Actual peak: 1.3c 2003-04: July statistical forecast: -0.5c July dynamical forecast: 0.0c Actual peak: 0.4c 2004-05: July statistical forecast: 0.6c July dynamical forecast: 0.5c Actual peak: 0.7c 2006-07: July statistical forecast: 0.5c July dynamical forecast: 0.5c Actual peak: 1.0c 2014-15: July statistical forecast: 0.7c July dynamical forecast: 0.9c Actual peak: 0.6c 2013-14: July statistical forecast: -0.5c July dynamical forecast: -0.2c Actual peak: -0.6c 2012-13: July statistical forecast: 0.4c July dynamical forecast: 1.1c Actual peak: 0.4c 2011-12: July statistical forecast: -0.1c July dynamical forecast: -0.2c Actual peak: -0.9c 2010-11: July statistical forecast: -0.8c July dynamical forecast: -1.2c Actual peak: -1.4c 2009-10: July statistical forecast: 0.9c July dynamical forecast: 1.5c Actual peak: 1.3c 2008-09: July statistical forecast: -0.2c July dynamical forecast: 0.2c Actual peak: -0.8c 2007-08: July statistical forecast: -0.4c July dynamical forecast: -0.9c Actual peak: -1.4c Total temperature anomaly error for all years combined: 5.4= statistical 5.5=dynamical One can see that some years feature more accurate long range forecasts than others. Since 2012, the statistical model means have shown superior skill compared to the dynamical mean guidance. However, there is no guarantee that will continue. To put some of the model guidance currently forecasting a +3c El Nino in perspective (e.g., ECMWF, CFS V2, GMAO models), below are those model forecasts from July for other years. 2014 July forecasts from select dynamical models- CFS: 1.1C peak NASA GMAO: 1.2C peak ECMWF: 1.4C peak Actual peak: 0.6C 2012 July forecasts from select dynamical models- CFS: 1.2C peak NASA GMAO: 1.6C peak ECMWF: 1.0C peak Actual peak: 0.4C 2009 July forecasts from select dynamical models- CFS: 2.0C NASA GMAO: 2.2C peak ECMWF: 1.3C peak Actual peak: 1.3C These models were consistently over amplified with respect to ensuing +ENSO events since 2009, often times on the order of +0.9C too warm from July. The point is: nothing can be "locked in" at this this stage, and there are some noted offenders which often intensify the event far above actual. For reference, current statistical mean peak is 1.7C trimonthly, and dynamical mean peak is 2.2C. The average of all models is 2.0C. As explained in the aforementioned notes, both of these means have been as much as 0.5-1.0c too warm or too cold from the July forecast. Finally, given the usual amplified bias of the three select dynamical models, I would place probabilities as very low for a region 3.4 trimonthly peak greater than 2.2c, and certainly 2.5c. If that occurs, it would be the strongest event since 1950. I don't believe that will occur. Right now, I continue to favor a trimonthly peak in the range of 1.7-2.0C. I remain unconvinced of a super, > 2.0c, trimonthly peak. Will need to see how the next several weeks evolve. We also need to monitor the orientation of the warm anomalies in the tropical pacific (e.g., east, central, etc. based). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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