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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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1919-20's El Niño was much weaker than what is currently modeled. He might be right, but I'd be a little nervous about using a weak El Niño case.

checking the jma and long term mei 1919-20 was a weak plus enso...there was a 45 hour snow and sleet storm the first week of February 1920...17.5" fell in three days...

http://www.bmt-lines.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/brtmonthly02-1920.pdf

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

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Why are you acting like its the summer of 1997? This is 2015 not 1997. Your acting like this Nino will have the same exact details.. 

While it's too soon to be confident in the outcome, a 1997-98-style ENSO event that results in an abnormally warm winter, along with below normal snowfall, is a plausible scenario. At the same time, the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing (model trends are moving in that direction). Fortunately, there remain other possibilities. By fall, the evolution of the current event should provide a clearer picture.

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this nino should be a top five event...1982-83, 1997-98, 1972-73, 1918-19, 1877-78 all had a milder than average winter with well below average snowfall... February 83 did have one great week but not much snow before and after...1888-89 is another strong event with a cold February with below average snowfall...1930-31 is another strong event...NYC had well below average snowfall that year...I'm not saying this year will be snowless if the el nino gets to those levels (it's very close now)...A negative AO might not help either...See 1997-98...

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While it's too soon to be confident in the outcome, a 1997-98-style ENSO event that results in an abnormally warm winter, along with below normal snowfall, is a plausible scenario. At the same time, the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing (model trends are moving in that direction). Fortunately, there remain other possibilities. By fall, the evolution of the current event should provide a clearer picture.

Don, have you seen the newest run of the ECMWF? All I will say is wow. The majority of the members are peaking this Nino higher than '97-'98 and by alot too. And the new CFS run is showing the same thing...
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Don, have you seen the newest run of the ECMWF? All I will say is wow. The majority of the members are peaking this Nino higher than '97-'98 and by alot too. And the new CFS run is showing the same thing...

Yes. It is extraordinary to see such a massive El Niño appearing on the guidance. We'll see how things continue to evolve in coming weeks, things seem to be on course for a super El Niño event.

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If it does become super, i really hope we don't end up like 97-98

other indices could be different including the GOA and the Atlantic...November 1997 was colder than average in NYC and December was the coldest month...After that it was torchzilla...

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soi minimums ...todays was -31.46...

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

188....02.84..........188....13.48

197...-09.84..........197...-31.46

204...-34.78

233...-33.88

260...-26.63

278...-32.98

308...-56.59

331...-44.58

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

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The JAMSTEC's development of an area of >2°C anomalies in ENSO Region 1+2 presents the kind of scenario that would tend to favor a relatively warm winter in the East and possibly one with below to much below normal snowfall. The forecast temperature anomalies have also trended in that direction from the previous month's run.

 

JAMSTEC07172015.jpg

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The thermal ocean budget at 200m is massively larger than it was in 97-98.

Until a month ago I thought there was no way in hell this Nino was going to be stronger then 1997-1998, seeing where we are at right now, the projected conditions and the long range model runs, I think we are going to surpass that Nino now
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Some of us have stated earlier that strong ENSO events are usually the kiss of death in Nov and Dec .

You really have to see how steep the decline is once past Nov and In which region before we punt mid Jan into March.

I thought this nino was headed towards 1.8 / 1.9. That looks like it will get surpassed .

The key in the LR is what does this all look like comes Nov and Dec

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Some of us have stated earlier that strong ENSO events are usually the kiss of death in Nov and Dec .

You really have to see how steep the decline is once past Nov and I'm which region before we punt mid Jan into March.

I thought this nino was headed towards 1.8 / 1.9. That looks like it will get surpassed .

The key in the LR is what does this all look like comes Nov and Dec

I agree. Super El Niño now all but guaranteed. All we can hope for is that SST anomalies are not near +3.0C come November like some models are showing on the new runs, If they are, it will be over before it starts...
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I agree. Super El Niño now all but guaranteed. All we can hope for is that SST anomalies are not near +3.0C come November like some models are showing on the new runs, If they are, it will be over before it starts...

I think it comes down to the EPO and whatever blocking develops in the Atlantic. EPO- we have many chances for snow as that will send down occasional shots of arctic air.

If we go EPO+ we'll roast.

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