dmillz25 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Weather Channel is already advertising this to potentially being the strongest el niño on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 D Aleo likes the 1919- 1920 SST analog to this upcoming winter . This is SST and temps for that year . 1919-20's El Niño was much weaker than what is currently modeled. He might be right, but I'd be a little nervous about using a weak El Niño case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Don, there is yet another new strong downwelling kelvin wave taking shape now... That's yet another indication that the current El Niño is still strengthening. The odds of a super event are continuing to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The JAMSTEC is close This kind of setup would bring a lot of storms riding up the gulf coast. I think we get a -NAO, +PDO, and +PNA with a moderate El Nino come winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 This kind of setup would bring a lot of storms riding up the gulf coast. I think we get a -NAO, +PDO, and +PNA with a moderate El Nino come winter time.Based on what do you think it's going to weaken to moderate by the beginning of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Based on what do you think it's going to weaken to moderate by the beginning of winter? Moderate-Strong El Nino* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 1919-20's El Niño was much weaker than what is currently modeled. He might be right, but I'd be a little nervous about using a weak El Niño case. checking the jma and long term mei 1919-20 was a weak plus enso...there was a 45 hour snow and sleet storm the first week of February 1920...17.5" fell in three days... http://www.bmt-lines.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/brtmonthly02-1920.pdf http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 1997-98 winter had average snowfall for northeastern Pa and NY state, everywhere especially the cities... forget it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 1997-98 winter had average snowfall for northeastern Pa and NY state, everywhere especially the cities... forget it! Why are you acting like its the summer of 1997? This is 2015 not 1997. Your acting like this Nino will have the same exact details.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Why are you acting like its the summer of 1997? This is 2015 not 1997. Your acting like this Nino will have the same exact details.. While it's too soon to be confident in the outcome, a 1997-98-style ENSO event that results in an abnormally warm winter, along with below normal snowfall, is a plausible scenario. At the same time, the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing (model trends are moving in that direction). Fortunately, there remain other possibilities. By fall, the evolution of the current event should provide a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 this nino should be a top five event...1982-83, 1997-98, 1972-73, 1918-19, 1877-78 all had a milder than average winter with well below average snowfall... February 83 did have one great week but not much snow before and after...1888-89 is another strong event with a cold February with below average snowfall...1930-31 is another strong event...NYC had well below average snowfall that year...I'm not saying this year will be snowless if the el nino gets to those levels (it's very close now)...A negative AO might not help either...See 1997-98... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 While it's too soon to be confident in the outcome, a 1997-98-style ENSO event that results in an abnormally warm winter, along with below normal snowfall, is a plausible scenario. At the same time, the probability of a super El Niño event is increasing (model trends are moving in that direction). Fortunately, there remain other possibilities. By fall, the evolution of the current event should provide a clearer picture.Don, have you seen the newest run of the ECMWF? All I will say is wow. The majority of the members are peaking this Nino higher than '97-'98 and by alot too. And the new CFS run is showing the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Don, have you seen the newest run of the ECMWF? All I will say is wow. The majority of the members are peaking this Nino higher than '97-'98 and by alot too. And the new CFS run is showing the same thing... Yes. It is extraordinary to see such a massive El Niño appearing on the guidance. We'll see how things continue to evolve in coming weeks, things seem to be on course for a super El Niño event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 If it does become super, i really hope we don't end up like 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 If it does become super, i really hope we don't end up like 97-98 The question is if it's becomes/remains super during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 If it does become super, i really hope we don't end up like 97-98 other indices could be different including the GOA and the Atlantic...November 1997 was colder than average in NYC and December was the coldest month...After that it was torchzilla... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Why are you acting like its the summer of 1997? This is 2015 not 1997. Your acting like this Nino will have the same exact details.. I hope not, but we do need a negative epo and help from the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 soi minimums ...todays was -31.46... day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78 233...-33.88 260...-26.63 278...-32.98 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The JAMSTEC's development of an area of >2°C anomalies in ENSO Region 1+2 presents the kind of scenario that would tend to favor a relatively warm winter in the East and possibly one with below to much below normal snowfall. The forecast temperature anomalies have also trended in that direction from the previous month's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 There's no cold anywhere on the Jamstec 90% of the globe is above normal...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Last Sept JAMSTEC 2m temp winter forecast for the NE were above normal . That was a wee bit off. I would wait to see how this progresses , either side of the equation before I put stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 The IRI model array continues to show this Nino peaking stronger and stronger this fall with every new run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 the core of the positive height anomalies lines up with the core of the positive sst anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The thermal ocean budget at 200m is massively larger than it was in 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I think todays nao reading is the lowest since November 2010...We could use this low nao in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 The thermal ocean budget at 200m is massively larger than it was in 97-98.Until a month ago I thought there was no way in hell this Nino was going to be stronger then 1997-1998, seeing where we are at right now, the projected conditions and the long range model runs, I think we are going to surpass that Nino now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Some of us have stated earlier that strong ENSO events are usually the kiss of death in Nov and Dec . You really have to see how steep the decline is once past Nov and In which region before we punt mid Jan into March. I thought this nino was headed towards 1.8 / 1.9. That looks like it will get surpassed . The key in the LR is what does this all look like comes Nov and Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Some of us have stated earlier that strong ENSO events are usually the kiss of death in Nov and Dec . You really have to see how steep the decline is once past Nov and I'm which region before we punt mid Jan into March. I thought this nino was headed towards 1.8 / 1.9. That looks like it will get surpassed . The key in the LR is what does this all look like comes Nov and Dec I agree. Super El Niño now all but guaranteed. All we can hope for is that SST anomalies are not near +3.0C come November like some models are showing on the new runs, If they are, it will be over before it starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 At least the SW U.S. will get their long awaited drought relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I agree. Super El Niño now all but guaranteed. All we can hope for is that SST anomalies are not near +3.0C come November like some models are showing on the new runs, If they are, it will be over before it starts...I think it comes down to the EPO and whatever blocking develops in the Atlantic. EPO- we have many chances for snow as that will send down occasional shots of arctic air. If we go EPO+ we'll roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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