JBG Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 We will probably see quite a few intense nor'easters this upcoming winter if the El Niño stays strong. We only need marginal cold so I'll take my chances with a good storm track. Thinking February 11, 1983? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sometimes even November won't tell the story. Take last fall for instance. We all thought it was going to be a slam dunk -AO with the record snowfall in Canada. Trying to predict the weather can be a humbling experience at times. Unfortunately, following two bad winter forecasts, it's not clear that the seasonal AO can be predicted much above climatology, so the AO could be a wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 1997-98 had a negative AO and slightly negative nao especially in December...The pna was positive...there was a lack of cold air that winter...It has the record for the highest coldest 30 day period...The coldest it got for 30 days was 37.3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 no year is exactly alike so I doubt NYC will see 0.5" of snow before the first day of spring...it could be worse because anything can happen...1997-98, 1972-73, 1991-92 all had very little snowfall heading into March...all three had some measurable snow around the first day of spring...but it was to little to late...We have a long way to go and some second el nino years were good like 1940-41... My pet theory for 1972-3 is that we cut over to La Niña so fast that we lost both the front end of winter, as usual for Niño and the back end, as usual for Niña. In March 1992 and 1998 we had about 6" of snow around the first day of spring. 1973's "event" amounted to less than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 1997-98 had a negative AO and slightly negative nao especially in December...The pna was positive...there was a lack of cold air that winter...It has the record for the highest coldest 30 day period...The coldest it got for 30 days was 37.3...The +EPO and loosing the warm GOA/+PDO look in '97 really killed it. If Isotherm is correct and we loose the strong +PDO/very warm GOA and end up with a neutral or positive EPO, we absolutely, positively will need a strongly -AO and and strong, west-based -NAO. A +PNA will not cut it in that situation. If the arctic and Atlantic blocking are to unfold, given the +QBO we just entered, you want to see an uptick in solar activity/solar fluxes going into the winter as well. We will be fighting a strong to super El Niño to boot all the while.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The +EPO and loosing the warm GOA/+PDO look in '97 really killed it. If Isotherm is correct and we loose the strong +PDO/very warm GOA and end up with a neutral or positive EPO, we absolutely, positively will need a strongly -AO and and strong, west-based -NAO. A +PNA will not cut it in that situation. If the arctic and Atlantic blocking are to unfold, given the +QBO we just entered, you want to see an uptick in solar activity/solar fluxes going into the winter as well. We will be fighting a strong to super El Niño to boot all the while.... the AO was as low as -2.081 for January 1998...The lowest the ao got to on one day last year was -1.460 and January averaged +1.092...I'd hate to think how warm 1997-98 would have been with a positive AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 the AO was as low as -2.081 for January 1998...The lowest the ao got to on one day last year was -1.460 and January averaged +1.092...I'd hate to think how warm 1997-98 would have been with a positive AO...The non stop Dec-Mar blowtorch that winter was just staggering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 1997-98 had a negative AO and slightly negative nao especially in December...The pna was positive...there was a lack of cold air that winter...It has the record for the highest coldest 30 day period...The coldest it got for 30 days was 37.3... If ENSO Region 1+2 has exceptionally warm anomalies (e.g., +2°C or greater) during meteorological winter as was the case during winter 1997-98, at least the northern tier of the CONUS, including the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas, could very likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. That's a very difficult ENSO region to forecast, so it's tough to make such a call from this far out. That Region 1+2 has warmed to a greater extent than had been modeled and has yet to experience the rapid decline in temperatures previously modeled is something to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 If ENSO Region 1+2 has exceptionally warm anomalies (e.g., +2°C or greater) during meteorological winter as was the case during winter 1997-98, at least the northern tier of the CONUS, including the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas, could very likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. That's a very difficult ENSO region to forecast, so it's tough to make such a call from this far out. That Region 1+2 has warmed to a greater extent than had been modeled and has yet to experience the rapid decline in temperatures previously modeled is something to be watched. I hope it doesn't warm much longer but the enso is close to the top five of all time...we all would like to see 1983 over 1998...as of now it looks like trouble if you want a cold winter...there is always hope for a renegade snowtorm... the el nino was the driving factor in 1997-98...It went super before 1982-83 did...maybe the earlier start helped flood north America with Pacific Maritime air?...1982-83 did have a negative ao in February while 1998 had a negative ao in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I hope it doesn't warm much longer but the enso is close to the top five of all time...we all would like to see 1983 over 1998...as of now it looks like trouble if you want a cold winter...there is always hope for a renegade snowtorm... the el nino was the driving factor in 1997-98...It went super before 1982-83 did...maybe the earlier start helped flood north America with Pacific Maritime air?...1982-83 did have a negative ao in February while 1998 had a negative ao in January... I agree. Hopefully, R1+2 will peak very soon and then cool down. Sometimes the strong-super El Niños can feature a big snowstorm (1877-78 and 1982-83), but they can also see a lack of snowfall (1918-19, 1972-73, and 1997-98). Some of the seasonal guidance does not yet suggest a non-winter so to speak, but the guidance has been generally behind the curve of events with respect to R 1+2, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 I agree. Hopefully, R1+2 will peak very soon and then cool down. Sometimes the strong-super El Niños can feature a big snowstorm (1877-78 and 1982-83), but they can also see a lack of snowfall (1918-19, 1972-73, and 1997-98). Some of the seasonal guidance does not yet suggest a non-winter so to speak, but the guidance has been generally behind the curve of events with respect to R 1+2, at least so far.The models are initializing too low for region 1+2 and even region 3. They are going to have to play catchup now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 If the nino keeps going strong anybody outside of northwest Nj,northeast Pa and New York state is going to be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The +EPO and loosing the warm GOA/+PDO look in '97 really killed it. If Isotherm is correct and we loose the strong +PDO/very warm GOA and end up with a neutral or positive EPO, we absolutely, positively will need a strongly -AO and and strong, west-based -NAO. A +PNA will not cut it in that situation. If the arctic and Atlantic blocking are to unfold, given the +QBO we just entered, you want to see an uptick in solar activity/solar fluxes going into the winter as well. We will be fighting a strong to super El Niño to boot all the while....Somehow I doubt we lose the PAC with the current SST profile and the Euro seasonal and JAMSTEC forecasts...everything points towards a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Somehow I doubt we lose the PAC with the current SST profile and the Euro seasonal and JAMSTEC forecasts...everything points towards a -EPO.Isotherm gave a very good detailed explanation as to why we may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Isotherm gave a very good detailed explanation as to why we may If true we fire house and fry. If not we could be on to something epic. I have a feeling it's neither. As we see some of both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I agree. Hopefully, R1+2 will peak very soon and then cool down. Sometimes the strong-super El Niños can feature a big snowstorm (1877-78 and 1982-83), but they can also see a lack of snowfall (1918-19, 1972-73, and 1997-98). Some of the seasonal guidance does not yet suggest a non-winter so to speak, but the guidance has been generally behind the curve of events with respect to R 1+2, at least so far. 1972-3 was notably snowless but not notably warm. We had a real cold spell around December 15-18 and thereafter we did torch, through January 4, 1973, and then again for about half that January. In between, super-cold. Most of the snow opportunities actually were suppressed. And New England was not particularly warm. I do see that 1982-3 and 1997-8 featured the northern torching you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I agree. Hopefully, R1+2 will peak very soon and then cool down. Sometimes the strong-super El Niños can feature a big snowstorm (1877-78 and 1982-83), but they can also see a lack of snowfall (1918-19, 1972-73, and 1997-98). Some of the seasonal guidance does not yet suggest a non-winter so to speak, but the guidance has been generally behind the curve of events with respect to R 1+2, at least so far.funny thing about 72/73 was that from Richmond on south, they had a great winter and had above normal snowfall in southern Virginiait was really the mean storm track that killed those of us north of Richmond which actually gives me "some" pause for hope even if we reach those kind of near Super Nino ssta numbers this year that said, that's the winter that made me a weenie thanks to 3 near misses that were forecasted the night before to dump mod/heavy snow imby but turned into traumatic busts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 One thing I think we can all agree on is that this Nino is heading for the record books right now. How strong it gets? Anyone's guess at the moment, but this El Niño is on steroids. We will definitely remember 2015-2016 as a very powerful El Niño and leave the ultimate strength as "to be determined" for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 funny thing about 72/73 was that from Richmond on south, they had a great winter and had above normal snowfall in southern Virginia it was really the mean storm track that killed those of us north of Richmond which actually gives me "some" pause for hope even if we reach those kind of near Super Nino ssta numbers this year that said, that's the winter that made me a weenie thanks to 3 near misses that were forecasted the night before to dump mod/heavy snow imby but turned into traumatic busts! The 1972-73 El Niño faded fast. 1982-83 saw a blizzard that salvaged what would otherwise have been a relatively snowless winter in much of the Mid-Atlantic. 1997-98 needs no description. Hopefully, we won't have anything like 1997-98 (or a 1998-99 La Niña to follow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The 1972-73 El Niño faded fast. 1982-83 saw a blizzard that salvaged what would otherwise have been a relatively snowless winter in much of the Mid-Atlantic. 1997-98 needs no description. Hopefully, we won't have anything like 1997-98 (or a 1998-99 La Niña to follow).I was only six at the time but I remember the drought and water restrictions in the summer of 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I was only six at the time but I remember the drought and water restrictions in the summer of 1999. Both the 1997-98 and 1998-99 winters were warm across much of the CONUS. The 1972-73 and 1997-98 El Niños gave way to La Niñas. 1982-83 was followed by neutral ENSO/borderline La Niña conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 1994-95 to 1999-00 had five out of six years with below normal snowfall...Take away 1995-96 and it would be one of the worst snowless periods of all time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The 1972-73 El Niño faded fast. 1982-83 saw a blizzard that salvaged what would otherwise have been a relatively snowless winter in much of the Mid-Atlantic. 1997-98 needs no description. Hopefully, we won't have anything like 1997-98 (or a 1998-99 La Niña to follow). Is it possible that the fast fade to La Niña in 1972-3 killed the possibility of a rescuing snowstorm like February 11, 1983 or late March, 1998? If I recall we crossed the neutral threshold in February or March and were in Niña territory by April 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The ceiling will drop at some point but I don't think it'll be this winter. Still feel the pacific will save us as long as we hold a -EPO and +PDO. It'll be a wait and see forecast more so than usual and it might not be until late November when things get figured out. Can't say the raging Nino isn't a concern though if you like cold & snow. Those maps look rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 At this time, this is the way I see the evolving El Niño event. I believe there is a high probability of a basin-wide ENSO event. Right now, I assess equal chances that Region 1+2 could have anomalies generally below +1°C or +1° or above for most or all of the winter. However, with that region remaining warmer than modeled, the forecast decline in temperatures being delayed, climatological experience with secondary peaks, and the ongoing WWB, I believe the probability of the latter outcome is growing. The JAMSTEC has taken a step toward December-February temperature anomalies consistent with the latter case. The CFSv2 is currently showing temperature anomalies consistent with the latter case. The ECMWF has taken a step there showing pronounced cool anomalies in the Southwest for the December-February timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 D Aleo likes the 1919- 1920 SST analog to this upcoming winter . This is SST and temps for that year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The JAMSTEC is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I like the SST comparison laid out by J D , but the Jamstec has the core of the cold further South. Which makes more sense . The air in Canada may be cold , but even the Euro 500 mb maps look like Canada will end up AVG . The core of the colder air , relative to averages should end up further south . ie over the MA/SE . What is moderating plus 1 SD above air in Manitoba is 1 SD below normal in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 At this time, this is the way I see the evolving El Niño event. I believe there is a high probability of a basin-wide ENSO event. Right now, I assess equal chances that Region 1+2 could have anomalies generally below +1°C or +1° or above for most or all of the winter. However, with that region remaining warmer than modeled, the forecast decline in temperatures being delayed, climatological experience with secondary peaks, and the ongoing WWB, I believe the probability of the latter outcome is growing. The JAMSTEC has taken a step toward December-February temperature anomalies consistent with the latter case. The CFSv2 is currently showing temperature anomalies consistent with the latter case. The ECMWF has taken a step there showing pronounced cool anomalies in the Southwest for the December-February timeframe. Don, there is yet another new strong downwelling kelvin wave taking shape now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I like the SST comparison laid out by J D , but the Jamstec has the core of the cold further South. Which makes more sense . The air in Canada may be cold , but even the Euro 500 mb maps look like Canada will end up AVG . The core of the colder air , relative to averages should end up further south . ie over the MA/SE . What is moderating plus 1 SD above air in Manitoba is 1 SD below normal in DC. The JAMSTEC SST map shows a very favorable configuration for an Aleutian low/+PNA/-EPO...it is really going to depend on where the Pacific low height anomaly sets up. If it's farther west towards the Aleutians, it'll pump up the western ridge and give us a cold/snowy winter. However, if the low heights set up over the GoA, the +EPO will flood North America with warm air as the -PNA limits snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.