Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[uncle W]

the nao is showing some life and has been negative for a week now...the last few years it's been positive...Decemeber nao has not averaged negative since 2010...January since 2011 March 2013 was negative but since then the winter months have average positive...this has to change sooner or later...

[snowman19]

the nao is showing some life and has been negative for a week now...the last few years it's been positive...Decemeber nao has not averaged negative since 2010...January since 2011 March 2013 was negative but since then the winter months have average positive...this has to change sooner or later...

Unless we have gone into the long term positive phases of the AO and NAO.

[uncle W]

latest mei number is 2.060 which is quite high now...it has to reach 3.000 to be on the 1997-98 and 1982-83 level...

[uncle W]

Unless we have gone into the long term positive phases of the AO and NAO.

the last 30 years had almost twice as many positive nao January's than negative...that's a long positive stretch...

[Isotherm]

There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole in the Atlantic SSTS, research shows that this is the time of year you want to see the tripole if a -NAO winter is to follow, also, there is a severely negative AMO, record negative the last 2 months in fact, and an ice cold North Atlantic Ocean. As a rule, when the NAO is negative or positive, the AO is in the same state, an overwhelming amount of the time. It is very rare to see a disconnect between the 2 ( i.e. -NAO and a +AO or vice versa). The AO and NAO go through their long term negative and positive states at the same time actually. Best educated guess is that we see a positive AO and NAO this winter

 

 

 

 

The early indicator that I monitor actually suggests a more neutral / negative NAO, but it's extremely early and there are numerous other factors to examine for the NAO prediction. The research I've seen specifically addresses the northern Atlantic SST's, which have been conducive thus far in my view.

 

The AMO was slightly positive as of June 2015 as per the official NOAA dataset:

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

The AMO-NAO correlation is a very weak one and virtually useless in terms of long-term predictions.

 

Following your logic, the assumption of a +AO is based upon the presupposition of a +NAO, which is essentially a wild guess at this point anyway. The AO-NAO modality correlation - while present - isn't strong enough for me to utilize it as a predictor. We've seen numerous winters in which the two indices were in varying states.

 

Regarding the long-term, the decadal trend has been more negative over recent years; however, even in a positive regime, negative NAO winters can occur (and vice versa). So again, this is a factor which I would refrain from utilizing on a year-to-year NAO prediction basis.

 

At this juncture, I have no stance on the NAO/AO for next winter, except to say - climatologically/historically - the negative AO/NAO is the favored modality during El Nino winters due to enhanced ozone transport, increased propensity for stratospheric warming events, and more favorable Pacific tropical forcing.

[Isotherm]

We have just gone into a +QBO phase. During positive (westerly) QBO, you want high solar activity, not low solar activity to get blocking, your statement is incorrect. We currently have record low solar activity. If you look back at the +QBO winters that had blocking, they were high solar flux years. You are thinking of -QBO (easterly) and low solar activity, that combo leads to enhanced blocking.

 

 

My only disagreement w/ your post: solar activity has been fairly active recently. We've seen a number of large solar flux spikes in conjunction w/ major geomagnetic storms. Solar flux has been 1200-1300 over the past couple months - while nowhere near as active as previous solar cycles - still approximately 200% of the solar flux in 2008 during the deepest portion of the cycle 23 minimum. Solar activity may decrease substantially by this winter, but speaking in terms of recent conditions, the sun has been active (relatively).

[easternsnowman]

If we do have a strong nino and do not get enough blocking then outside of NW Jersey,the Poconos and Catskills forget about even average snowfall or close to it. Temps will be above normal, although with an active STJ and an early peak to the nino late winter will produce like a 2006-2007 scenario although this will be a stronger enso.

[AvantHiatus]

People are forgetting about some aspects but I will leave it at that for now. Hey, not my loss if you fail at forecasting. Forecasting at long leads has always been a crapshoot except when you have something like the anomalous -EPO which is certain to deliver the same result every-time.

 

There are different aspects in play that didn't exist in 13-14 besides the el nino. At this point, winter 2015-2016 has feast or famine vibes with much more upward mobility in extreme weather potential than all other years.

 

I like to think of it as a transition point and a war between the old and new climate. Plus we have the emerging North Atlantic dipole SST configuration. It's just gonna get nasty. Buckle up and continue the deep research.

[PB GFI]

If we do have a strong nino and do not get enough blocking then outside of NW Jersey,the Poconos and Catskills forget about even average snowfall or close to it. Temps will be above normal, although with an active STJ and an early peak to the nino late winter will produce like a 2006-2007 scenario although this will be a stronger enso.

A strong STJ with a NEG EPO POS PNA regime like the European seasonal forecast shows is in line with the JAMSTEC pacific SST profile forecast.

I would think that Nov and Dec lag , but like in many POS ENSO years combined with the above regime this one could be a back loaded winter too.

[PB GFI]

Chris , I have the Euro seasonal . Have you seen it ?  It looks great . I will not post it but I like the look once into Jan at 500 .

[PB GFI]

IF ONLY 

[PB GFI]

Paul, I got to see a drawing of the 500 mb anomaly centers on the weather map which really looks great

like you mentioned. It makes sense given where the SST anomalies are forecast to be located. Looks

like a clash of the titans set up with the really powerful fire hose STJ gets forced under the -EPO block.

 

Agree ,  $64,000 question , Does one overwhelm ? or do they work together ? 

[Yanksfan]

Agree ,  $64,000 question , Does one overwhelm ? or do they work together ? 

We are entering uncharted waters my friends going into this upcoming winter. Normally in a strong El Nino state, it overwhelms the pattern, and we end up with our hearts being broke. However with increasing evidence of a -EPO regime coinciding with a possible modoki El Nino, the skies  the limit. Way too soon to tell right now. Purely speculation at this point. Can't wait till the late fall when things become much clearer. 

[snowman19]

Since 1948, Nino region 3 has been over +2C for a month only twice, 1982, 1997, and this year, just made it 3...

[donsutherland1]

Since 1948, Nino region 3 has been over +2C for a month only twice, 1982, 1997, and this year, just made it 3...

Right now, about the only thing that is now highly certain is that the upcoming winter will very likely feature a basin-wide El Niño event. Odds of a central Pacific type have fallen markedly.

[SACRUS]

 

MEI Value

 

May/Jun: 2.06

 

Closest Actuals (value);

 

1987: 1.954

1983: 2.201

1997: 2.339

1992: 1.762

1998: 1.239

 

 

Closest trends:

 

2015    .406    .468    .65    .953    1.567    2.06

 

1987    1.237    1.184    1.727    1.867    2.14    1.954

1997    -.485    -.602    -.244    .537    1.17    2.339    

1983    2.687    2.903    3.024    2.835    2.537    2.201

1992    1.749    1.87    1.987    2.269    2.148    1.762    

 

[snowman19]

Right now, about the only thing that is now highly certain is that the upcoming winter will very likely feature a basin-wide El Niño event. Odds of a central Pacific type have fallen markedly.

I agree, there are no signs whatsoever right now of this becoming a modoki. In fact, just the opposite

[snowman19]

Don, take a look at this animation, over the last week there has been explosive warming in regions 3 and region 1+2. +3C anomalies are now showing up https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/620242173351624704

[SnoSki14]

Don, take a look at this animation, over the last week there has been explosive warming in regions 3 and region 1+2. +3C anomalies are now showing up https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/620242173351624704

It's already been explained how volatile that region is. We are several months away from winter and people are already locking everything in.

[snowman19]

It's already been explained how volatile that region is. We are several months away from winter and people are already locking everything in.

Region 3 is not volatile and no one has locked anything in

[Isotherm]

Region 3 is not volatile and no one has locked anything in

 

 

He's referring to regions 1+2, which you mentioned appeared to have +3C anomalies. These regions are historically very volatile as I noted yesterday.

[snowman19]

He's referring to regions 1+2, which you mentioned appeared to have +3C anomalies. These regions are historically very volatile as I noted yesterday.

Region 3 is showing +3C anomalies now too

[donsutherland1]

Don, take a look at this animation, over the last week there has been explosive warming in regions 3 and region 1+2. +3C anomalies are now showing up https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/620242173351624704

I'm aware of it. It highlights the idea that the current El Niño event will likely be a strong one. A super event still remains on the table.

 

While I think a basin-wide event is now the base case for the winter, it's still far too soon to be sure that ENSO Region 1+2 will have anomalies of +1.0°C or above for one or more months during meteorological winter, though the CFSv2 supports such an idea. My guess that by October, a much better idea will be available concerning Region 1+2.

[Isotherm]

Still much cooler than 1997 in the subsurface layer:

 

[Isotherm]

I'm not convinced that the upcoming winter will feature a -EPO in the means. Most strong and super El Nino's featured a neutral or +EPO due to the orientation of the GOAK vortex in such a way that it lowered heights in the NE PAC and W Coast of British Columbia. If we note years like 1957-58, 1972, 1982, 1997, and to a certain extent 2009, the -EPO feature was generally not present for most of the winter. And this is the primary reason why most of those stronger / super Nino's promote warmth across Canada and muted arctic airmasses. The tropical Pacific forcing induces the formation of a GOAK trough which then directs the mid latitude jet eastward toward western Canada [thereby flooding Canada with mP air]. So I'm definitely not sold on a -EPO next winter. In fact, climatologically and statistically, the odds strongly favor a neutral to +EPO in the means. Recall that 1997 featured a fairly robust warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska during the summer, only to get eaten away by a changed regime in October 1997. Thus, I also wouldn't be banking on the current warmth south of AK remaining intact through the winter. It's possible it does, but at this point, I'm not anticipating a -EPO to the extent of the past couple winters, and more likely, a neutral to positive EPO. With that being said, that would be fairly typical, and good/snowy winters can still occur in a neutral/+EPO +ENSO regime, depending upon other factors.

[AvantHiatus]

Also regression to the mean, EPO has been negative for a long time. Not to say I believe in the "We are due" mindset.

[snowman19]

I'm not convinced that the upcoming winter will feature a -EPO in the means. Most strong and super El Nino's featured a neutral or +EPO due to the orientation of the GOAK vortex in such a way that it lowered heights in the NE PAC and W Coast of British Columbia. If we note years like 1957-58, 1972, 1982, 1997, and to a certain extent 2009, the -EPO feature was generally not present for most of the winter. And this is the primary reason why most of those stronger / super Nino's promote warmth across Canada and muted arctic airmasses. The tropical Pacific forcing induces the formation of a GOAK trough which then directs the mid latitude jet eastward toward western Canada [thereby flooding Canada with mP air]. So I'm definitely not sold on a -EPO next winter. In fact, climatologically and statistically, the odds strongly favor a neutral to +EPO in the means. Recall that 1997 featured a fairly robust warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska during the summer, only to get eaten away by a changed regime in October 1997. Thus, I also wouldn't be banking on the current warmth south of AK remaining intact through the winter. It's possible it does, but at this point, I'm not anticipating a -EPO to the extent of the past couple winters, and more likely, a neutral to positive EPO. With that being said, that would be fairly typical, and good/snowy winters can still occur in a neutral/+EPO +ENSO regime, depending upon other factors.

Great disco, I actually looked back at '97 after you mentioned the GOA sst change, it looks like a monster vortex developed in the GOA in early October, most likely due to the fall change in wavelengths and it caused massive upwelling and cooling. The sst change in the GOA was very dramatic and rapid between early October and late November that fall

[snowman19]

The warm pool associated with a -EPO was never in place even during the summer of 1997 like it continues today.

Notice how there was already a cold pool just of the US PAC NW Coast at that time where the strong warm SST

anomaly is today. The warmer waters in 1997 were closer to the south coast of Alaska allowing Aleutian low to

tuck in too close to the coast as the fall and winter went on. The spot for the greatest EPO correlation is just

off the US PAC NW Coast.

But all that being said, the million dollar question is if it will linger through the winter like some of the models

are suggesting to maintain a negative or at least weak negative to neutral EPO?

COR.gif

15.gif

97.gif

This is why I'll wait until November to make a call on the winter. I want to see what happens with the GOA come October when the wavelengths start changing. And I also want to see what the El Nino is doing at that point

[PB GFI]

Both the Euro seasonal and JAMSTEC Dec thru Feb keep the - EPO intact , but since it's July it is wise to wait and see what the

Eurasian snow cover ,

QBO,

N Atlantic ,

AO,

Region 3.4 vs 1.2 look like.

It's clearly speculation this far out but it's a good challenge to see which models handle the LR seasonal forecast the best.

The winter will hinge on many factors , so I don't want to get caught up on one variable.

[Yanksfan]

This is why I'll wait until November to make a call on the winter. I want to see what happens with the GOA come October when the wavelengths start changing. And I also want to see what the El Nino is doing at that point

Sometimes even November won't tell the story. Take last fall for instance. We all thought it was going to be a slam dunk -AO  with the record snowfall in Canada. Trying  to predict the weather can be a humbling experience at times.