nzucker Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Very Nino like as has already been said. We don't need another Feb 2015 for it to snow. It's all about getting just enough cold air and a decent track. Maybe it'll end up like 09-10 where nearly every storm had marginal temps. Except for 12/19/09 which had twmps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It also hangs the Aleutian low back further SW over the North Pacific allowing a more -EPO than 1982-1983. This is probably a result of the warmer SST's being modeled south of Alaska with the higher ENSO SSTs extending further west into the Central Pacific Nino 4 region. Wow! A possible strong El Nino coupled with a -EPO? Throw in some atlantic blocking, and it would be a snow weenies dream! In all seriousness though, strong El Nino's usually tend to "overwhelm" the pattern and we torch. Let's hope the models are over doing it, or at the very least we peak earlier and we end up in moderate territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It also hangs the Aleutian low back further SW over the North Pacific allowing a more -EPO than 1982-1983. This is probably a result of the warmer SST's being modeled south of Alaska with the higher ENSO SSTs extending further west into the Central Pacific Nino 4 region. Wow! A possible strong El Nino coupled with a -EPO? Throw in some atlantic blocking, and it would be a snow weenies dream! In all seriousness though, strong El Nino's usually tend to "overwhelm" the pattern and we torch. Let's hope the models are over doing it, or at the very least we peak earlier and we end up in moderate territory. It would be a snowlovers dream with the blocking at least well north and west of the city, too strong it won't be for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 6" snowstorms for strong el nino years... Dec. 1957.....8.0"...temps near 30... Feb. 1958.....7.9"...temps in the teens... Mar. 1958....11.8"...temps around 32... Dec. 1963.....6.6"...temps around 30... Jan. 1964....12.5"...temps in the teens... Feb. 1964.....6.8"...temps in the low 30's... Jan. 1966.....6.8"...temps in the 30's... Feb. 1966.....6.3"...temps in the low 30's... Feb. 1983....17.6"...temps around 20... Jan. 1987......8.1"...temps around 30... Mar. 1992......6.2"...temps in the low 30's... Dec. 2002......6.0"...temps in the 20's... Feb. 2003....19.8"...temps in the teens/20's... Dec. 2009....10.7"...temps in the 20's... Feb. 2010....10.0"...temps around 30... Feb. 2010....20.9"...temps around 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 With the El Niño, much will depend on the Region 1+2 anomaly. If it's +1.0°C or warmer, the prospects of a moderate or big snowstorm during that time will be low. Some statistics for New York City: Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.00°C or above: 4" or greater: Once every 2.0 months 6" or greater: Once every 6.0 months 10" or greater: Once every 12.0 months (single storm, the February 1983 blizzard) Region 1+2 anomaly of +0.50°C to +0.99°C: 4" or greater: Once every 1.3 months 6" or greater: Once every 2.5 months (nearly as frequent as 6" or above snowstorms when the anomaly is +1.00°C or above) 10" or greater: Once every 10.0 months For purposes of illustration, if the entire December-February period had an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.00°C or above, the 1950-2015 average would be 0.5 snowstorms where 6" or more snow fell. In contrast, if the anomaly were slightly cooler (+0.50°C to +0.99°C), one would expect 1.2 such snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Except for 12/19/09 which had twmps in the teens. Loved that storm. It was a fast mover here but had incredible rates for a 5-6 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Interesting that it's like the other guidance and not pushing the warmest anomalies into 1+2 like we saw in 1997. The SST anomaly forecasts all look west of 1997 with significant warming all the way back to the Central Pacific which was cooler in 1997. Also more warm water south of Alaska than 1997 suggesting a more -EPO this time. NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png 98.png sst.png ENSO 1&2 numbers this year are cooler than 1997 by 1C thru July 1-2 fwiw http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 uh oh.....97' starting to show up on the Supercomputer analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 You can see that this year has a different Pacific SST profile than 1997 on the same date. One major difference is the much warmer SST's this year off the West Coast of North America than 1997 associated with the record ridge there of recent years. The other is that Nino 4 has already set records for record warmth this year while 1997 was cooler there. Finally, 1+2 is cooler extending south down the whole coast of South America. temp.gif Regions 3 and 1+2 are about to warm very dramatically with this downwelling kelvin wave https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/619307341725351936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 You can see that this year has a different Pacific SST profile than 1997 on the same date. One major difference is the much warmer SST's this year off the West Coast of North America than 1997 associated with the record ridge there of recent years. The other is that Nino 4 has already set records for record warmth this year while 1997 was cooler there. Finally, 1+2 is cooler extending south down the whole coast of South America. temp.gif agreeand in addition to SSTA configuration, 97/98 had a negative QBO while this year will br positive (not that I proclaim to know the exact consequences, but differentiating this year from that year makes this weenie happier!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 agree and in addition to SSTA configuration, 97/98 had a negative QBO while this year will br positive (not that I proclaim to know the exact consequences, but differentiating this year from that year makes this weenie happier!) no year is exactly alike so I doubt NYC will see 0.5" of snow before the first day of spring...it could be worse because anything can happen...1997-98, 1972-73, 1991-92 all had very little snowfall heading into March...all three had some measurable snow around the first day of spring...but it was to little to late...We have a long way to go and some second el nino years were good like 1940-41... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 no year is exactly alike so I doubt NYC will see 0.5" of snow before the first day of spring...it could be worse because anything can happen...1997-98, 1972-73, 1991-92 all had very little snowfall heading into March...all three had some measurable snow around the first day of spring...but it was to little to late...We have a long way to go and some second el nino years were good like 1940-41... agree, but at this stage of the game I need to reassure myself that we've got a chance lol plus, I hear the Euro seasonal model does not look bad for us on the east coast, so that's a bit comforting albeit early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Regions 3 and 1+2 are about to warm very dramatically with this downwelling kelvin wave https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/619307341725351936 Regions 1+2 are extremely volatile; transient fluctuations warmer or colder are not necessarily indicative of longer term trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Regions 1+2 are extremely volatile; transient fluctuations warmer or colder are not necessarily indicative of longer term trends. You can say that again! CFS2 has actually been all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 The Pacific side on that looks very close to the 40-41 El Nino. 41.png When there is a super El Niño, the Atlantic and arctic sides get "cancelled" out by the ENSO forcing and raging STJ. Even if we were to have a -AO and -NAO, they would be overwhelmed by a super Nino since weather moves west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 I'm assuming you think +PNA (which basically every Nino features), and -EPO and +PDO along with cross-polar flow? I think that the NAO and AO are lost causes already like you do. Canada is much warmer now than it was last year, so we will need cross-polar flow for a cold air supply there, that's for sure. Honestly I don't know what a super Nino along with a +PDO/-EPO/+PNA PAC setup would produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 When there is a super El Niño, the Atlantic and arctic sides get "cancelled" out by the ENSO forcing and raging STJ. Even if we were to have a -AO and -NAO, they would be overwhelmed by a super Nino since weather moves west to east They didn't get overwhelmed or cancelled out on 2-11-83. But the chart he posted focused the blocking on the Pacific side anyway. That's why I mentioned the Pacific side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I'm assuming you think +PNA (which basically every Nino features), and -EPO and +PDO along with cross-polar flow? I think that the NAO and AO are lost causes already like you do. Canada is much warmer now than it was last year, so we will need cross-polar flow for a cold air supply there, that's for sure. Honestly I don't know what a super Nino along with a +PDO/-EPO/+PNA PAC setup would produce The - EPO should turn the jet off Asia up over the top . I would like to se the ridge to go up east over the Caspian forcing that cold air down through Canada . As it stands - EPO love to seed Canada w HP. When you look at the 2M temp anomalies in Canada and they look a little warm , remember with a POS PNA that plus 1 SD air you see on the LR models in Canada has to slide through the lakes and becomes colder relative to averages the further S one goes . It just needs to be " COLD ENOUGH " to snow . We will def need a - AO this time around . Couple this with a STJ breaking through and winter will not be lost . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 The Pacific side on that looks very close to the 40-41 El Nino. 41.png Yeah, and the 1940-41 Nino peak was quite similar to 1965-66 - just under super criteria (1.8/1.9c or so). The year clearly featured a strongly -NAO/AO which is essential in a strong el nino. The numerical data only goes back to 1950, but the 500mb anomalies you posted suggest that blocking dominated the high latitudes. Per New Brunswick NJ temperature data, the winter was fairly cold as well, with a 29.4F mean January and 29.8F mean February. Snowfall was 37-39", 20" of which fell in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I'm assuming you think +PNA (which basically every Nino features), and -EPO and +PDO along with cross-polar flow? I think that the NAO and AO are lost causes already like you do. Canada is much warmer now than it was last year, so we will need cross-polar flow for a cold air supply there, that's for sure. Honestly I don't know what a super Nino along with a +PDO/-EPO/+PNA PAC setup would produce How did you arrive at the conclusion that the NAO and AO are "lost causes" at this lead time? It's too early to determine the modality and magnitude of those indices. Strong/super Nino coupled with a –NAO/AO yields a significantly different sensible weather result than a strong/super Nino w/ a +NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 You can say that again! CFS2 has actually been all over it. Agree. There's no doubt that a very potent El Nino is on the way; however, I continue to believe that model guidance suggesting a trimonthly peak > 2.0c in region 3.4 is overdone. SST's are still much warmer around Australia than in July of 1997; SOI values were much more negative to date in 1997. Furthermore, the progression of '97 was such that an east based event became apparent by mid summer. This one looks more basin-wide or centrally based to me (region 3-3.4). Extreme model guidance aside, empirically, I'm far from convinced that this ENSO event will rival 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Yeah, I was just using that to show how the Pacific side on that was similar to 40-41. But the Atlantic side is different on the model prog projection. Agree. I don't have much faith in any model progg at this lead time, anyway. Still watching the evolution of the ENSO event in the coming 1-3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 They didn't get overwhelmed or cancelled out on 2-11-83. But the chart he posted focused the blocking on the Pacific side anyway. That's why I mentioned the Pacific side. 83.gif to be fair, that winter was basically a +NAO, with one exception in the beginning of 2/83 (all that was needed, however) we (DCA/BWI/PHL) had a sneaky snow storm in December, 1982 as well that was progged on the 6PM news to stay south of DCA/BWI and on the 11PM local news, except one forecaster in the DC market I specifically recall said "Radar echoes out of SW VA sure don't look like the storm will be a miss" lol, 6-8" fell that night as far north as PHL I believe; I don't know how north of PHL faired though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 to be fair, that winter was basically a +NAO, with one exception in the beginning of 2/83 (all that was needed, however) we (DCA/BWI/PHL) had a sneaky snow storm in December, 1982 as well that was progged on the 6PM news to stay south of DCA/BWI and on the 11PM local news, except one forecaster in the DC market I specifically recall said "Radar echoes out of SW VA sure don't look like the storm will be a miss" lol, 6-8" fell that night as far north as PHL I believe; I don't know how north of PHL faired though North of Philly, there was less: 3.0" in NYC and 2.1" in Boston. The AO was negative during that storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 strong el nino years using a combination of long term mei/jma and oni since 1950...many of them were back loaded...even the chity ones... 1877-78...documented warm winter in the north country with little snowfall in NYC...only one snowfall...8" 2/1/78...above average temperatures for the 1870's...8.1" snowfall for the season... 1888-89...very cold February but snowfall was below average and no major storms...above average temps. for the 1880's... 1896-97...snowy Nov/Dec...18" total...white Christmas...major storm in late January...44" total snowfall...average temperatures... 1899-00...cold February/March...12 of the 13.4" that fell came in February/March...slightly above average temperatures... 1902-03...snowy December...9" snowfall in February...warm March...average temperatures/snowfall... 1905-06...mild Dec/Jan...colder February...below average snowfall... 20" of snowfall...17.5" after January...two March snowstorms... 1918-19...mild snowless winter...2.7" of the 3.8" that fell came in March...February was the coldest month but still averaged above normal...10 degree winter min... 1925-26...cold winter...Feb. was the coldest month...32.4" of snow fell for the season...22.4" fell during one week in early February... 1930-31...average temperatures with below average snowfall...only 11.6" of snow fell but a few inches fell just before Christmas...Jan. was the coldest....10 degree winter min... 1940-41...ave. temps...39" of snow...18" wet snow on March 8th...Jan. was the coldest....10 degree winter min... 1957-58...cold winter after a mild start...44.7" of snow...very cold February with a blizzard...Late March deep snows... 1965-66...mild overall but late January was cold and snowy...February had average snowfall...two 6" snowfalls...late Jan and late Feb... 1972-73...mild overall...Feb. was the coldest month and was below normal...only 2.8" of snow that winter...1.8" in late January...warm March... 1982-83...mild overall...Dec. snowfall but warm overall...mild Jan/Feb but the first two weeks in Feb. had 21.5" of the 27.2" of snow that fell that winter...12 degree winter min... 1986-87...mild overall due to a slow start...Late January was cold and snowy...February stayed cold...23.1" of snow fell that winter... 1991-92...mild winter...Jan. was the coldest month but still above normal...March had 9.2" of the 12.6" of snow that fell that year...6" 3/19...11 degree winter min... 1997-98...mild winter...0.5" of snow until March 22nd...5.5" total for the season...14 degree winter min...what more can be said... 2002-03...cold winter...December snowfalls...February Blizzard...Cold Jan/Feb...49" of snowfall... 2009-10...average temperatures with above average snowfall...13 degree winter min...Jan/Feb. were cold...December snowstorm...February snowstorms...mild March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 11, 2015 Author Share Posted July 11, 2015 How did you arrive at the conclusion that the NAO and AO are "lost causes" at this lead time? It's too early to determine the modality and magnitude of those indices. Strong/super Nino coupled with a –NAO/AO yields a significantly different sensible weather result than a strong/super Nino w/ a +NAO/AO. There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole in the Atlantic SSTS, research shows that this is the time of year you want to see the tripole if a -NAO winter is to follow, also, there is a severely negative AMO, record negative the last 2 months in fact, and an ice cold North Atlantic Ocean. As a rule, when the NAO is negative or positive, the AO is in the same state, an overwhelming amount of the time. It is very rare to see a disconnect between the 2 ( i.e. -NAO and a +AO or vice versa). The AO and NAO go through their long term negative and positive states at the same time actually. Best educated guess is that we see a positive AO and NAO this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 The Pacific side on that looks very close to the 40-41 El Nino. 41.png Looks like the main PV is over Russia, so the coldest air would be on the other side of the globe using PB's forecast 500mb anomaly map. That's not unexpected in a strong El Nino as 09-10 also had a very cold, persistent PV in eastern Siberia while Canada was very mild. However, in our favor is the strong Aleutian low, western Canada block, and a weakness off the East Coast which indicates an active sub-tropical jet with frequent Nor'easters...could be some Miller A Gulf lows as well. Still think next winter is extremely active with a battle between a strong Nino and a -EPO block, which could lead to a very snowy winter in these parts, and especially to our north and west in the elevations, despite temperatures not being that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole in the Atlantic SSTS, research shows that this is the time of year you want to see the tripole if a -NAO winter is to follow, also, there is a severely negative AMO, record negative the last 2 months in fact, and an ice cold North Atlantic Ocean. As a rule, when the NAO is negative or positive, the AO is in the same state, an overwhelming amount of the time. It is very rare to see a disconnect between the 2 ( i.e. -NAO and a +AO or vice versa). The AO and NAO go through their long term negative and positive states at the same time actually. Best educated guess is that we see a positive AO and NAO this winter First of all, a weak +AO/+NAO pattern means little for us if we have a perfectly positioned -EPO block over AK. Models are increasingly showing high heights in western Canada and AK, which corresponds to the warm SSTs off the coast and the prognosticated Aleutian low pattern. Winters 14-15 and 13-14 proved that a -NAO is not necessary for cold and snow here if we have a good Pacific. Second, the tripole SST configuration is only a small part of forecasting the NAO, and has a weak correlation. You also need to look at the weakening solar activity, which tends to lead to more blocking. Also, El Nino transports more ozone to the stratosphere near the poles...ozone particles absorb heat, therefore warming the stratosphere and causing warmth to propagate downward, leading to ridging in the upper latitudes and thus a more -AO pattern, like an egg being cracked over the Earth. I would forecast a weak positive NAO with a neutral AO, some big dips at times possible, especially February after the Nino peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 11, 2015 Author Share Posted July 11, 2015 First of all, a weak +AO/+NAO pattern means little for us if we have a perfectly positioned -EPO block over AK. Models are increasingly showing high heights in western Canada and AK, which corresponds to the warm SSTs off the coast and the prognosticated Aleutian low pattern. Winters 14-15 and 13-14 proved that a -NAO is not necessary for cold and snow here if we have a good Pacific. Second, the tripole SST configuration is only a small part of forecasting the NAO, and has a weak correlation. You also need to look at the weakening solar activity, which tends to lead to more blocking. Also, El Nino transports more ozone to the stratosphere near the poles...ozone particles absorb heat, therefore warming the stratosphere and causing warmth to propagate downward, leading to ridging in the upper latitudes and thus a more -AO pattern, like an egg being cracked over the Earth. I would forecast a weak positive NAO with a neutral AO, some big dips at times possible, especially February after the Nino peaks. We have just gone into a +QBO phase. During positive (westerly) QBO, you want high solar activity, not low solar activity to get blocking, your statement is incorrect. We currently have record low solar activity. If you look back at the +QBO winters that had blocking, they were high solar flux years. You are thinking of -QBO (easterly) and low solar activity, that combo leads to enhanced blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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