Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

My point is that it worked out by the grace of God because of one single storm. Had it stayed South like originally modeled your forecast would have gone up in smoke.

Better / Happy to be lucky instead of being wrong.

Keep in mind the 500 mb pattern from a distance supported LP off the EC.

I can make the argument if FEB s storm phased snow totals would have doubled.

[Brian5671]

This winter turned out very close to the forecast for NYC and the coastal plain .

AN temps. AN snow.

A very warm Dec was seen from a distance and plus 1 to 2 C for Jan and Feb turned out right.

March was the only totally missed month.

Away from the coast it was dry but as Tom pointed out , that sometimes happens during strong EL NINOs .

If you go back and look at the late fall early winter precip maps the greatest anomalies were right up along the coastal plain.

Not sure where the bust was. If the call was for AN snow with AN temps, the forecast hit.

I think you were expecting more than what was forecast, so in your mind everything is a bust .

Perhaps, but many were calling for a big 2nd half with a big SSW and -NAO.  Neither showed up and we got a parade of cutters and 3 of the 4 months were well above normal. Most forecasts were not nearly warm enough.   One lucky blizzard ala 82-83 saved us (on the coast) in the snowfall dept.   As noted, some inland areas had historic lows for snowfall totals with horrific totals from the mid-Hudson valley up to VT...

[ag3]

Perhaps, but many were calling for a big 2nd half with a big SSW and -NAO.  Neither showed up and we got a parade of cutters and 3 of the 4 months were well above normal. Most forecasts were not nearly warm enough.   One lucky blizzard ala 82-83 saved us (on the coast) in the snowfall dept.   As noted, some inland areas had historic lows for snowfall totals with horrific totals from the mid-Hudson valley up to VT...

 

A lot of LI had 3 storms of over 6" this winter.

[Isotherm]

Perhaps, but many were calling for a big 2nd half with a big SSW and -NAO.  Neither showed up and we got a parade of cutters and 3 of the 4 months were well above normal. Most forecasts were not nearly warm enough.   One lucky blizzard ala 82-83 saved us (on the coast) in the snowfall dept.   As noted, some inland areas had historic lows for snowfall totals with horrific totals from the mid-Hudson valley up to VT...

 

 

This isn't correct. There was a SSW in early February; however, it wasn't sufficiently strong to a force a -NAO. In early March we had one of the strongest SSWs on record. We fell just short in early February; if that ended up being a major SSW, Feb-Mar would have looked quite a bit different. We had a significant -NAO episode in January (NAO averaged negative). 

 

Additionally, the phrase "lucky blizzard" is paradoxical because a blizzard is far from a lucky weather phenomenon. We had near record breaking blocking in mid January with a -5 SD AO and west based -NAO which descended southward. The pattern was very good.

 

Further, I'd argue the coast did have a good second half, although we didn't arrive there in precisely the way everyone thought. Dec 1 - Jan 15th: no snow, versus Jan 15-Mar 20: 35-45" totals from NYC/LI southwestward. That's the definition of a good second half snowfall wise.

 

The only aspect I agree with is the fact that temperatures were much warmer than expected (record warm vs our forecast of slightly warmer than normal). That pushes the grade down into a fair call. However, again, people expect too much from LR forecasts. It would have been impossible to forecast and nail a record warm winter from long lead times.

[Isotherm]

Better / Happy to be lucky instead of being wrong.

Keep in mind the 500 mb pattern from a distance supported LP off the EC.

I can make the argument if FEB s storm phased snow totals would have doubled.

 

 

The mid January pattern was a ticking time bomb, as I just posted. -5 SD AO blocks generally feature some type of historic winter weather event adjacent to the date. 

 

Another point is that this winter was expected to be one which featured a much lower frequency of snow events, with greater snowfall in the events that occur. One or two big events is a classic hallmark of strong El Nino's, and this was also expected. As you noted, the coast had a number of minor to moderate snows as well.

[Brian5671]

This isn't correct. There was a SSW in early February; however, it wasn't sufficiently strong to a force a -NAO. In early March we had one of the strongest SSWs on record. We fell just short in early February; if that ended up being a major SSW, Feb-Mar would have looked quite a bit different. We had a significant -NAO episode in January (NAO averaged negative). 

 

Additionally, the phrase "lucky blizzard" is paradoxical because a blizzard is far from a lucky weather phenomenon. We had near record breaking blocking in mid January with a -5 SD AO and west based -NAO which descended southward. The pattern was very good.

 

Further, I'd argue the coast did have a good second half, although we didn't arrive there in precisely the way everyone thought. Dec 1 - Jan 15th: no snow, versus Jan 15-Mar 20: 35-45" totals from NYC/LI southwestward. That's the definition of a good second half snowfall wise.

 

The only aspect I agree with is the fact that temperatures were much warmer than expected (record warm vs our forecast of slightly warmer than normal). That pushes the grade down into a fair call. However, again, people expect too much from LR forecasts. It would have been impossible to forecast and nail a record warm winter from long lead times.

Fair points all around and you are right on the last part, myself included. 

[masomenos]

My point is that it worked out by the grace of God because of one single storm. Had it stayed South like originally modeled your forecast would have gone up in smoke.

That's almost always the case for decent winters around here--one storm usually makes or breaks a season. poor argument. Many forecasts actually called for a higher than normal chance for a "big one" and it ended up panning out pretty well. All the ingredients were there for a blockbuster second half, but it just didn't quite workout.

[JBG]

I'm wondering if the AMO or some other oscillation has shifted. We've been 5-12" below the 30 year average on precipitation for almost a year and that during a super Niño. We got drenched the last two of those, 1982-3 (all-time record of over 80" of rain) and 1997-8. Any thoughts?

[snowman19]

I'm wondering if the AMO or some other oscillation has shifted. We've been 5-12" below the 30 year average on precipitation for almost a year and that during a super Niño. We got drenched the last two of those, 1982-3 (all-time record of over 80" of rain) and 1997-8. Any thoughts?

We are going into a long term -AMO again, big reason for the ice cold North Atlantic

[forkyfork]

I'm wondering if the AMO or some other oscillation has shifted. We've been 5-12" below the 30 year average on precipitation for almost a year and that during a super Niño. We got drenched the last two of those, 1982-3 (all-time record of over 80" of rain) and 1997-8. Any thoughts?

this is probably connected to the big nao shift that happened after april 2013