snowman19 Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area. Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter. Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half. However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible. Lotta "ifs" there . A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter. Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. . Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winterIt wasn't a -EPO winter...there was a huge vortex in the Gulf of Alaska that flooded North America with warmth. That was the main problem. The -AO/-NAO was very weak, more like neutral, and poorly placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Nice, looks very stormy with baroclinic zone near the Mason Dixon. the temp anomalies would have to be reversed for that to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 the temp anomalies would have to be reversed for that to be trueIt looks like a classic strong El Niño pattern with the southeast cooler than normal because of a roaring subtropical jet/storms moving through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11. Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1. Per the 0Z Euro, a wild SOI ride ahead. Get ready for a very steep SOI rise over the next ~4 days to perhaps close to +20 from the current ~-35 before a fall back to ~-20's to near -30 by 7/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Yes, this year has been running behind 1997. However, it does have an opportunity to make up some significant ground over the next few weeks. 1997 went quiet in late June through most of July as easterlies resumed. Subsurface anomalies weakened significantly over that period. There's currently a strong WWB ongoing, so my guess would be that the two years will be a lot closer by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Don't have time to look it up at the moment, but I believe '97-'98 was a -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, +PDO winter, the problem was the super east-based Nino we had in place, the STJ was just totally overwhelming. Had it not been for the crazy strong Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 2009-10 had about 35" of wet snow and 15" of powder...1963-64 was an el nino winter with mostly wet snows and a blizzard thrown in for good measure...every thing went wrong in 1972-73 and 1997-98 had no cold air at all to work with...82-83 had the one great week in February...chances are next winter is milder than the last two if the el nino is very strong...If it remains strong into next spring the second half of the winter could be interesting...If the nino fades fast during the fall and winter I like a mild ending after a cold start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain. Well i hope we get the blocking like we got in 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Well i hope we get the blocking like we got in 09-10. The cold AMO type Atlantic SST look right now really doesn't favor a negative AO or NAO, but things can change in 5-6 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 3, 2015 Author Share Posted July 3, 2015 The El Niño may have had something to do with the AO and NAO averaging negative though as El Niños often favor more blocking than La Nina's do, so without the niño those indices may not have been as favorable. 09-10 was really not a whole lot different than 97-98, we were literally within 2-3C of being rain in the mid levels on most snow events. The insane -AO made the difference or that winter is likely a clunker, much like 97-98 many perfect storm tracks but most would have been rain.Very strong/super east-based ninos are the kiss of death for winter. They just totally overwhelm any blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 The cold AMO type Atlantic SST look right now really doesn't favor a negative AO or NAO, but things can change in 5-6 months Hopefully it does. We haven't had any sustained blocking in the winter in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Very strong/super east-based ninos are the kiss of death for winter. They just totally overwhelm any blocking I don't think we will see anything as bad as 97-98 though, the GOA will probably be better for us than it was that year even if the El Niño ends up in that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 I don't think we will see anything as bad as 97-98 though, the GOA will probably be better for us than it was that year even if the El Niño ends up in that level. What is the GOA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 so what does this mean for winter. interior NW gets crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 so what does this mean for winter. interior NW gets crushed... Won't know until November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 with a strong el nino we'll need a negative arctic oscillation at times...the last two years were snowy despite not having a very negative ao at any point... season.......low ao # and date 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80.......1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81.........1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81.....1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83......1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85......1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89....... . 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89......1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.........1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.......1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.........1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94........1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95..........1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96......1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.......1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99....... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00.......2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01.........2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01......2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03........2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05........2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07..........2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08..........2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09.........2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09......2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10.... 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...... 2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...... 2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...... 2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 What is the GOA?Gulf of Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Gulf of Alaska Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Nino region 3 just had the warmest average ssts on record between April and June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 4, 2015 Author Share Posted July 4, 2015 Overall, the only Nino event that was ahead of this one at this time of the year was 1997. We just left 1972 and 1982 in the dust.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Hey guys. I'm just curious to what a strong El Nino means for the northeast in terms of summer and winter storms. Can anyone explain? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 5, 2015 Author Share Posted July 5, 2015 First big model test of this El Nino event coming up in July. The current weekly Nino 3.4 temperature from the CPC is +1.4 C. We will get an update of this number tomorrow which will cover the last week of June. Weekly verifications on Nino 3.4 throughout the month of July will let us know which cluster of models is correct in the near term. This July period is where the two model groups are diverging. The Jamstec represents a faster temperature rise while the POAMA shows a slower July temperature increase. So we'll get to see which model or a compromise between the two turns out to be correct by August 1st. ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2015.gif poama.nino34.png Nino 3.4 should bump up to +1.5C tomorrow based on the daily numbers. The new July model runs will be very important. It appears the POAMA is and was too low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Nino 3.4 should bump up to +1.5C tomorrow based on the daily numbers. The new July model runs will be very important. It appears the POAMA is and was too low... Close to 1.5C on the update today holding the last few weeks at +1.4C. Nino 1+2 has also been steady recently but Nino 3 ticked up a bit. 03JUN2015 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 10JUN2015 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 17JUN2015 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 24JUN2015 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 01JUL2015 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 The July 1 weekly data showed ENSO Region 3's anomaly reaching +2.0°C. The last time that happened was the 1997-98 super El Niño event. During that event, the Region 3 anomaly first reached +2.0°C on June 25. Both the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events had monthly Region 3 anomalies of +2.0°C or above. It's still a little soon to be sure, but this most recent development may tilt the odds toward a basin-wide El Niño event. We'll have to see if Region 3's warmth is sustained or continues to increase in coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 The SSTA configuration has shifted - over the past 30 days - into a classic strong El Nino / +PDO precursor profile. The NW Pacific has seen significant cooling, as has the area surrounding Australia. The PDO will clearly register more positive when the June value comes in. Will be interesting to see the oscillation of SOI and WWB's over the next several weeks, as that will be telling insofar as our similarity to years like 1982, 1997, and 1972. To date, we've been lagging behind the "super" Nino's (>2.0c region 3.4). However, the SOI has plummeted and the 30-day running value is now under -15. This is indicative of a strong El Nino atmospheric regime. I think the July update of the IRI guidance will undoubtedly correct warmer, specifically the statistical guidance, which I thought was still too low around 1.4-1.5c peak on the June update. I continue to maintain a forecast of around +1.7 to 1.9c for the trimonthly region 3.4 maximum readings. Whether we have a chance to attain > 2.0c numbers or not depends upon the speed at which we progress in the coming weeks, and the frequency / maintenance of strong WWB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 The SSTA configuration has shifted - over the past 30 days - into a classic strong El Nino / +PDO precursor profile. The NW Pacific has seen significant cooling, as has the area surrounding Australia. The PDO will clearly register more positive when the June value comes in. Will be interesting to see the oscillation of SOI and WWB's over the next several weeks, as that will be telling insofar as our similarity to years like 1982, 1997, and 1972. To date, we've been lagging behind the "super" Nino's (>2.0c region 3.4). However, the SOI has plummeted and the 30-day running value is now under -15. This is indicative of a strong El Nino atmospheric regime. I think the July update of the IRI guidance will undoubtedly correct warmer, specifically the statistical guidance, which I thought was still too low around 1.4-1.5c peak on the June update. I continue to maintain a forecast of around +1.7 to 1.9c for the trimonthly region 3.4 maximum readings. Whether we have a chance to attain > 2.0c numbers or not depends upon the speed at which we progress in the coming weeks, and the frequency / maintenance of strong WWB's. Most important, the classic cold horseshoe has developed around Austrialia and Indonesia and is continuing to strengthen. We are now clearly into a strengthening +IOD. This is only going to support more -SOI and WWBs in the next few months ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Really big cave to the stronger guidance in just one run on the new POAMA. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml poama.nino34.png OLD.png That looks like a August peak. That would be a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6, 2015 Author Share Posted July 6, 2015 Really big cave to the stronger guidance in just one run on the new POAMA. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml poama.nino34.png OLD.png No shock. The POAMA started out too low for July to begin with. The POAMA has been terrible so far with this event.This Nino is clearly headed for the history books alongside '72-'73, '82-'83 and '97-'98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 No shock. The POAMA started out too low for July to begin with. The POAMA has been terrible so far with this event.This Nino is clearly headed for the history books alongside '72-'73, '82-'83 and '97-'98 It's too early to make such a definitive statement. The POAMA is still in a small minority of outlier models with respect to the maximum intensity. The rapid strengthening over the past few weeks doesn't necessarily implicate the maintenance of that pace of intensification going forward, over the next few months. What I'd say we can say with a high degree of certainty: the likelihood of at least a strong El Nino (>1.5c region 3.4) trimonthly peak is fairly high at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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