Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[donsutherland1]

What is the record?

June-August: 35 days, 1993

 

Total for a Calendar Year: 39, 1991 and 1993

[donsutherland1]

Dr Klotzbach just posted new CFS showing El Niño continuing through summer. Spring barrier influenced erroneous forecast?

The El Niño is only fading very slowly. It's plausible that summer could begin with borderline El Niño conditions or perhaps even weak El Niño conditions unless the rate of cooling picks up. If such an acceleration in cooling occurs, the late March through early May timeframe might provide the most likely period during which it starts in Region 3.4 based on the 1991-92 and 1997-98 events.

[snowman19]

Curious to see how close we get to seeing the most 90 degree days at KNYC this year . JJA .

We are on the same page here. The more I look at it, the more this summer has torch written all over it. I can see the SE ridge being a monster. I think the signal is much stronger now than it even was going into the summer of 2010.

[PB GFI]

We are on the same page here. The more I look at it, the more this summer has torch written all over it. I can see the SE ridge being a monster. I think the signal is much stronger now than it even was going into the summer of 2010.

 

 

 

[dmillz25]

June-August: 35 days, 1993

Total for a Calendar Year: 39, 1991 and 1993

Thank you

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

We bake this summer. I'm expecting record high water temps. Thus tons of moisture and lots humidity. Lots of storm potential too

[uncle W]

a quick look at mei analogs using mei data,

the analogs that were el nino during the DEC/JAN period and also the JULY/AUG period are...

1900, 1915, 1919, 1926, 1941, 1983, 1992 ...

years that went from el nino to weak positive...

2003, 1980, 1966, 1958, 1959, 1931, 1878...

years that went from el nino to weak negative...

2007, 1998, 1978, 1952, 1906, 1897,

years that went from el nino to la nina...

2010, 1988, 1973, 1970, 1964, 1942, 1912, 1889,

[easternsnowman]

I believe we are on a trend with hot summers which will only get hotter over time. Summer I feel will be hot and dry this year with many days over 100 especially philly and further south.

[JBG]

What is the record?

39 (edited from 41) 90+ days in 1991 and 1993, which beat out 1944's 37 (edited from 39). I edited after looking at Uncle W's chart. The prior figures were from faulty memory.

[Morris]

Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.2 (+0.2)
Nino 3: +1.6 (-0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.8 (-0.1)
Nino 4: +1.5 (+0.1) 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[dmillz25]

Any updates on this?

[Morris]

Any updates on this?

1

1.7

1.7

1.4

[Rjay]

Up to you guys but is time to lock it and ask if we're headed towards a LA Nina?

[BxEngine]

Up to you guys but is time to lock it and ask if we're headed towards a LA Nina?

Lets wait for the west to east collapse first.

[Rjay]

Lets wait for the west to east collapse first.

Lol

[HailMan06]

Up to you guys but is time to lock it and ask if we're headed towards a LA Nina?

We still have a strong Niño in thé Pacific. I vote we wait for neutral ENSO before locking the thread up.

[Rjay]

We still have a strong Niño in thé Pacific. I vote we wait for neutral ENSO before locking the thread up.

I hear you but...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[Brian5671]

We still have a strong Niño in thé Pacific. I vote we wait for neutral ENSO before locking the thread up.

Part of the reason this winter was such a horrific bust-this nino did not collapse nearly as fast as some thought.   That and no -NAO doomed us

[snowman19]

Part of the reason this winter was such a horrific bust-this nino did not collapse nearly as fast as some thought. That and no -NAO doomed us

When ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C in November you knew you were screwed. At least some did that is. It was over before it began...

[Brian5671]

When ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C in November you knew you were screwed. At least some did that is. It was over before it began...

I was encouraged by the cold and blizzard in January but when we got a parade of cutters and no Atlantic Blocking, it was time to jump ship around 2/20.  

[bluewave]

The only dud El Nino winter for snowfall in my area since 2000 was 06-07.

 

Just goes to show how little correlation there has been between El Nino

strength and seasonal snowfall.

 

JFK El Nino winter snowfall since 2000:

 

15-16....41.4"..super

14-15....44.1"..weak

09-10....47.2"..moderate

06-07......8.5"..weak to borderline moderate

04-05....36.8"..weak

02-03....55.9"...moderate

[Isotherm]

The only dud El Nino winter for snowfall in my area since 2000 was 06-07.

 

Just goes to show how little correlation there has been between El Nino

strength and seasonal snowfall.

 

JFK El Nino winter snowfall since 2000:

 

15-16....41.4"..super

14-15....44.1"..weak

09-10....47.2"..moderate

06-07......8.5"..weak to borderline moderate

04-05....36.8"..weak

02-03....55.9"...moderate

 

 

Yep. Good to very good snowfall winter for the coast from NYC/LI (even coastal SNE) southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic, regardless of how some want to spin it. Yes, it was a furnace, but snowfall totals are up near the levels of el nino winters which were quite a bit colder. Regarding how we arrived at those totals - some enjoy the long duration, 10 5" events, while others like the warmer, one big event/few small events type winter. Here in CNJ we had 25 snow cover days with a nice stretch of snow on the ground following the blizzard. Not bad considering the DJF departures (JF was only slightly warmer than normal). Another above normal snow year in the books.

[PB GFI]

Part of the reason this winter was such a horrific bust-this nino did not collapse nearly as fast as some thought.   That and no -NAO doomed us

This winter turned out very close to the forecast for NYC and the coastal plain .

AN temps. AN snow.

A very warm Dec was seen from a distance and plus 1 to 2 C for Jan and Feb turned out right.

March was the only totally missed month.

Away from the coast it was dry but as Tom pointed out , that sometimes happens during strong EL NINOs .

If you go back and look at the late fall early winter precip maps the greatest anomalies were right up along the coastal plain.

Not sure where the bust was. If the call was for AN snow with AN temps, the forecast hit.

I think you were expecting more than what was forecast, so in your mind everything is a bust .

[Isotherm]

This winter turned out very close to the forecast for NYC and the coastal plain .

AN temps. AN snow.

A very warm Dec was seen from a distance and plus 1 to 2 C for Jan and Feb turned out right.

March was the only totally missed month.

Away from the coast it was dry but as Tom pointed out , that sometimes happens during strong EL NINOs .

If you go back and look at the late fall early winter precip maps the greatest anomalies were right up along the coastal plain.

Not sure where the bust was. If the call was for AN snow with AN temps, the forecast hit.

I think you were expecting more than what was forecast, so in your mind everything is a bust .

 

 

 

Yeah, to me, at least for both of us, I'd consider this winter a hit as a fair call. It wasn't a bust and it wasn't an excellent forecast.  We both went normal to above normal temperatures for the Northeast for DJF (thus we had the correct side of departure, but underdid the magnitude) and above normal snow for I-95 NYC-DCA. I had the maximum bullseye around the DCA-BWI area.

 

To me, a total bust would implicate a forecast of colder than normal (and less snow than normal). Some sources did have a colder than normal winter for much of the Northeast, and for them, I would agree, that's a bad bust. But let's not write everyone's forecast off as a total bust. There were no great/excellent forecasts that nailed the blazing torch departures in the Northeast, but we did alright I thought (I'd probably assign a grade of C/C+).

[PB GFI]

When ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C in November you knew you were screwed. At least some did that is. It was over before it began...

I'm trying to wrap my head around this. From NYC east and down through CNJ 35 to 45 inches of snow fell this winter.

The only forecast that missed were the "snowless" ones.

[IsentropicLift]

This winter turned out very close to the forecast for NYC and the coastal plain .

AN temps. AN snow.

A very warm Dec was seen from a distance and plus 1 to 2 C for Jan and Feb turned out right.

March was the only totally missed month.

Away from the coast it was dry but as Tom pointed out , that sometimes happens during strong EL NINOs .

If you go back and look at the late fall early winter precip maps the greatest anomalies were right up along the coastal plain.

Not sure where the bust was. If the call was for AN snow with AN temps, the forecast hit.

I think you were expecting more than what was forecast, so in your mind everything is a bust .

Why are you making this about NYC and the coastal plain? This was one of the worst years on record snowfall wise North of 84.

[Isotherm]

I'm trying to wrap my head around this. From NYC east and down through CNJ 35 to 45 inches of snow fell this winter.

The only forecast that missed were the "snowless" ones.

 

 

The coast was the focus for the above normal snowfall this winter. I personally never expected a big winter for the interior Northeast, though it was certainly worse than I thought. Overall, my forecast called for below normal snow across most of the northern US, with the only real above normal swath from the interior SE through the Mid-atlantic coastal region, to the SNE coast.

[PB GFI]

Yeah, to me, at least for both of us, I'd consider this winter a hit as a fair call. It wasn't a bust and it wasn't an excellent forecast.  We both went normal to above normal temperatures for the Northeast for DJF (thus we had the correct side of departure, but underdid the magnitude) and above normal snow for I-95 NYC-DCA. I had the maximum bullseye around the DCA-BWI area.

 

To me, a total bust would implicate a forecast of colder than normal (and less snow than normal). Some sources did have a colder than normal winter for much of the Northeast, and for them, I would agree, that's a bad bust. But let's not write everyone's forecast off as a total bust. There were no great/excellent forecasts that nailed the blazing torch departures in the Northeast, but we did alright I thought (I'd probably assign a grade of C/C+).

Not a bad grade....

March was an F.

Dec was always opined AN, just plus 3 not plus 13. C

Jan and Feb were plus 1 to 2 C with AN S That hit. A.

[PB GFI]

Why are you making this about NYC and the coastal plain? This was one of the worst years on record snowfall wise North of 84.

AWT.

This forecast was always for NYC and the coast and it was opined here on many occasions places away from the coast are usually drier than N in strong El NINOS .

No one is discussing the LHV or places away from the coast . BN snow was expected there.

Go back and look at the guidance the wettest anomalies were along the coast.

So again , the AN temps AN S forecast for the city and coast worked. The BN S forecast went right to the late fall guidance.

[IsentropicLift]

AWT.

This forecast was always for NYC and the coast and it was opined here on many occasions places away from the coast are usually drier than N in strong El NINOS .

No one is discussing the LHV or places away from the coast . BN snow was expected there.

Go back and look at the guidance the wettest anomalies were along the coast.

So again , the AN temps AN S forecast for the city and coast worked. The BN S forecast went right to the late fall guidance.

My point is that it worked out by the grace of God because of one single storm. Had it stayed South like originally modeled your forecast would have gone up in smoke.