Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Didn't you go with +1 for Dec-Feb with AN snow?

The warmth was severely underestimated.

Dude this is the 10th time I have to tell you this.

Please scroll back and find the forecast it's here 100x.

Look at the Jan Feb 500 mb map and see exactly where I said those anomalies would place themselves .

Scroll back again read my forecast Dec will easily be AB then Jan -March plus 1 to 2 c with AN snow in NYC.

Jan and Feb finished at plus 2.2

March will prob be above that.

You called for 10 inches this winter in NYC. You can't be serious.

An AN Nov and Dec were called for in September/October.

My forecast was always for J thru M . So far Jan and Feb were spot on. The AN snow and -EPO were as well.

March will not be.

But Dec was thrown away by me in the fall. It's all in here if you want to look for it.

[PB GFI]

Hmmmm.

 

Although I think[/size] Dec could look like that . [/size]

Snoski start around page 55 in here and you will see the calls for a crap December and the forecast for J thru M

[PB GFI]

Many of the analogs point to a warm Dec - so scratch month 1 .Winter should appear from mid Jan into March ,

What that means in terms of snow - NO ONE knows .  You always run the risk of being too blocky and watching that STJ go off to your South .

 

I am just looking at temp profiles .

Holy sht snoski.

AUGUST.......

[JBG]

some big late season heat waves for those analogs...

I'm not good with those maps but I wonder what happens if you run August 24 to September 10 for those years. Edit: I figured out how to use those maps and apparently you can only do monthly increments. However trust me, those periods were off the charts. Over 95 quite a few days on each side of the September 1 line in 1953, 1973 and 2010; quite toasty in other years.

 

Other late August-early September heat years were 1991 and 1993. I'm not sure if ENSO was much of a factor in those years.

[Isotherm]

Dude this is the 10th time I have to tell you this.

Please scroll back and find the forecast it's here 100x.

Look at the Jan Feb 500 mb map and see exactly where I said those anomalies would place themselves .

Scroll back again read my forecast Dec will easily be AB then Jan -March plus 1 to 2 c with AN snow in NYC.

Jan and Feb finished at plus 2.2

March will prob be above that.

You called for 10 inches this winter in NYC. You can't be serious.

An AN Nov and Dec were called for in September/October.

My forecast was always for J thru M . So far Jan and Feb were spot on. The AN snow and -EPO were as well.

March will not be.

But Dec was thrown away by me in the fall. It's all in here if you want to look for it.

 

 

 

Those who don't regularly issue long range forecasts sometimes misunderstand (IMO) what would be considered a hit vs bust. We're looking for the overall / seasonal departures / pattern, and it is very difficult to nail the magnitude of departures from long leads. With that said, there is a grade reduction for underestimation of warmth.

 

However, I consider this winter a "hit" still. Correct side of departure, normal to above in the Northeast, so OK/fair on temps (failure/F in that regard would have been those who forecasted a colder than normal northeast). Snowfall was very good for me; bullseye mid atlantic with 27-35" forecasted for DCA-BWI-PHL, and I had 37-42" in the NYC metro area. Overall, I'd probably go C/C+ for the final grade. Certainly not as good as my past few winters personally, but definitely not a bust/miss either. Will wait until late March do to my usual full post-mortem/verification. Think we may have one more accumulating event.

[PB GFI]

Those who don't regularly issue long range forecasts sometimes misunderstand (IMO) what would be considered a hit vs bust. We're looking for the overall / seasonal departures / pattern, and it is very difficult to nail the magnitude of departures from long leads. With that said, there is a grade reduction for underestimation of warmth.

However, I consider this winter a "hit" still. Correct side of departure, normal to above in the Northeast, so OK/fair on temps (failure/F in that regard would have been those who forecasted a colder than normal northeast). Snowfall was very good for me; bullseye mid atlantic with 27-35" forecasted for DCA-BWI-PHL, and I had 37-42" in the NYC metro area. Overall, I'd probably go C/C+ for the final grade. Certainly not as good as my past few winters personally, but definitely not a bust/miss either. Will wait until late March do to my usual full post-mortem/verification. Think we may have one more accumulating event.

The main calls from late summer were an AN Nov/Dec

The AN snow in NYC worked.

The position at 500 worked.

The entire -EPO +PNA trough in the SE worked.

The plus 1 to 2 C in NYC worked (+1.5c)

The March call will blow .

I think we are close to +5

I never opined on a D departure always said that it was a warm "throw away month " from a distance.

I think that's a C + / B - . The real miss in my forecast is March.

[snowman19]

The main calls from late summer were an AN Nov/Dec

The AN snow in NYC worked.

The position at 500 worked.

The entire -EPO +PNA trough in the SE worked.

The plus 1 to 2 C in NYC worked (+1.5c)

The March call will blow .

I think we are close to +5

I never opined on a D departure always said that it was a warm "throw away month " from a distance.

I think that's a C + / B - . The real miss in my forecast is March.

I'm honestly worried this summer may be a furnace. Rapidly developing La Niña, PDO possibly transitioning to negative again, we are already seeing the GOA and eastern North Pacific ssts cooling down. That has SE ridge/Bermuda high on roids and -PNA written all over it. I hope I'm wrong about the heat

[PB GFI]

I'm honestly worried this summer may be a furnace. Rapidly developing La Niña, PDO possibly transitioning to negative again, we are already seeing the GOA and eastern North Pacific ssts cooling down. That has SE ridge/Bermuda high on roids and -PNA written all over it. I hope I'm wrong about the heat

This time we are going to agree. I think we are in for a very hot summer.

[Isotherm]

The main calls from late summer were an AN Nov/Dec

The AN snow in NYC worked.

The position at 500 worked.

The entire -EPO +PNA trough in the SE worked.

The plus 1 to 2 C in NYC worked (+1.5c)

The March call will blow .

I think we are close to +5

I never opined on a D departure always said that it was a warm "throw away month " from a distance.

I think that's a C + / B - . The real miss in my forecast is March.

 

Yeah. I don't do March from November lead time as I think there's insufficient skill, but agree, the entire progression worked fine. Dec warm --> Jan near normal with the 500mb trough in the East; bulk of snow late jan-mar. For me personally, February was probably the largest surprise. I thought the Jan blocking would persist.

 

Regardless, very good finish snowfall wise across the area, especially given the temp departures.

[Isotherm]

I'm honestly worried this summer may be a furnace. Rapidly developing La Niña, PDO possibly transitioning to negative again, we are already seeing the GOA and eastern North Pacific ssts cooling down. That has SE ridge/Bermuda high on roids and -PNA written all over it. I hope I'm wrong about the heat

 

 

Yes, we may return to 2010-2012 style heat this summer. Though I wait until May before talking summer seriously.

[snowman19]

Yes, we may return to 2010-2012 style heat this summer. Though I wait until May before talking summer seriously.

The most concerning is the PDO. If that goes negative along with a Niña, forget about it. The eastern North Pacific appears to be in the beginning stages of a big SST change though with the cooling

[MJO812]

I'm honestly worried this summer may be a furnace. Rapidly developing La Niña, PDO possibly transitioning to negative again, we are already seeing the GOA and eastern North Pacific ssts cooling down. That has SE ridge/Bermuda high on roids and -PNA written all over it. I hope I'm wrong about the heat

What is your thinking about the tropical season?

[JBG]

I'm honestly worried this summer may be a furnace. Rapidly developing La Niña, PDO possibly transitioning to negative again, we are already seeing the GOA and eastern North Pacific ssts cooling down. That has SE ridge/Bermuda high on roids and -PNA written all over it. I hope I'm wrong about the heat

Yes, we may return to 2010-2012 style heat this summer. Though I wait until May before talking summer seriously.

 

See posts 3207, 3209 and 3215 above. Two of those are mine, and Uncle W threw in his usual great historical perspective.  Obviously I agree. I'm not sure 2012 fills that bill real well though. Though there was one touch of 100° most of the heat was focused in upstate New York and far northern New England.

 

Personally I like the heat. I love the feeling of a good New York summer.

[Rtd208]

Anyone want to take a guess on what the prospects for severe weather and heavy rainfall will be like for the spring and summer months? Tropics? I honestly don't mind the heat but I would like it to be a fairly active spring and summer as well.

[snowman19]

What is your thinking about the tropical season?

Active to very active. Very warm Atlantic tropical ssts, developing La Niña (no westerly wind shear coming from the Pacific) The ITCZ should be really juiced up over the tropical Atlantic basin

[SnoSki14]

Honestly this could've easily been a >10" winter. We were saved by that huge storm, how very 1983-ish. Most places to our N&W got completely screwed over this season.

Take away that storm and this would've been a non-winter, but we seem to have all the luck even in a relatively crappy winter when you take Dec-Feb as a whole.

And the season's warmth was underestimated. Who in their right mind thought we would have the second warmest winter on record back in November.

[JBG]

Honestly this could've easily been a >10" winter. We were saved by that huge storm, how very 1983-ish. Most places to our N&W got completely screwed over this season.

Take away that storm and this would've been a non-winter, but we seem to have all the luck even in a relatively crappy winter when you take Dec-Feb as a whole.

And the season's warmth was underestimated. Who in their right mind thought we would have the second warmest winter on record back in November.

Interesting 1972-3, despite the record low snowfall, was actually colder. There were a number of near-misses for snowstorms. This winter could have been almost as bad. Take away January 23 and so far we've had under 6" of snow.

[uncle W]

with a very positive ao and nao in December coupled with one of the strongest if not the strongest el nino on record, you could have bet the house December was going to be way above average...not only was it above average but set a standard for warm months...once I saw the ao forecasts at the end of November I knew December was toast...I didn't think it would be burnt toast...

[PB GFI]

Honestly this could've easily been a >10" winter. We were saved by that huge storm, how very 1983-ish. Most places to our N&W got completely screwed over this season.

Take away that storm and this would've been a non-winter, but we seem to have all the luck even in a relatively crappy winter when you take Dec-Feb as a whole.

And the season's warmth was underestimated. Who in their right mind thought we would have the second warmest winter on record back in November.

You live on the coastal plain at 40 N. Every 20 Inch snowstorm involves some degree of luck.

But you were only able to achieve that because of what the mean at 500 was.

Strong EL NINOs are rarely pos for the interior.

So sure its luck. They all are.

Lastly Dec was plus 13. Jan plus 1.9. Feb plus 2.4. The -1 skews feb but Dec skewed the winter.

Verifications matter and not hurting feelings because some didn't participate.

These temp and snow calls were for KNYC .

[Wannabehippie]

The nino is slowly weakening which may save from a hot summer and also a strong nina for next winter.

Is there any real sign that we will have a strong Nina next winter?

[Isotherm]

Honestly this could've easily been a >10" winter. We were saved by that huge storm, how very 1983-ish. Most places to our N&W got completely screwed over this season.

Take away that storm and this would've been a non-winter, but we seem to have all the luck even in a relatively crappy winter when you take Dec-Feb as a whole.

And the season's warmth was underestimated. Who in their right mind thought we would have the second warmest winter on record back in November.

 

 

You can't "take away" a storm, and it wasn't luck. The historic storm should have occurred and was a direct result of the highly anomalous upper air pattern that evolved in January. The AO plummeted to -5 std and the decaying west based -NAO provided excellent confluence for bowling ball short wave. It was a great antecedent set-up, and most -5 AO dips feature an anomalous or record event of some type. To write off the blizzard as luck demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of the atmospheric processes.

 

And most of the coast now has 35-42" on the season - more events occurred beyond the blizzard. 1982-83 had less AO domain blocking than this winter.

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +1.0 (+0.1)

Nino 3: +1.8 (unchanged)

Nino 3.4: +1.9 (-0.2)

Nino 4: +1.4 (unchanged)

[bluewave]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +1.0 (+0.1)

Nino 3: +1.8 (unchanged)

Nino 3.4: +1.9 (-0.2)

Nino 4: +1.4 (unchanged)

 

DJF was the warmest on record for 3.4 to 4 finally surpassing the 97-98 winter ONI.

So we have a new king for the DJF trimonthly ONI. When you add all the ENSO regions

together, 2015 was the warmest ENSO year on record going back to at least 1948.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

Yearly total ENSO warmth 1948-2015

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

JB iseems to be on the very strong La Niña train now. There are a few models supporting that now too. This is going to be interesting to watch this summer

[PB GFI]

JB iseems to be on the very strong La Niña train now. There are a few models supporting that now too. This is going to be interesting to watch this summer

 

Curious to see how close we get to seeing  the most 90 degree days at KNYC this year . JJA .

[dmillz25]

Curious to see how close we get to seeing the most 90 degree days at KNYC this year . JJA .

What is the record?

[PB GFI]

What is the record?

 

UNC or Chris would know .

May should be included .

[dmillz25]

UNC or Chris would know .

May should be included .

I wouldn't be surprised if we see our first 90 in late April

[bkviking]

Dr Klotzbach just posted new CFS showing El Niño continuing through summer. Spring barrier influenced erroneous forecast?

[uncle W]

UNC or Chris would know .

May should be included .

 

monthly 90 degrees days......

Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals...

1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37.......................

1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8

1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11

1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24

1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30

1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15

1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29

1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13

1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19

1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10

1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27

1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7

1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14

1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9

1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12

1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16

1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16

1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25

1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6

1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15

1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9

1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22

1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9

1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4

1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17

1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13

1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7

1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10

1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14

1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4

1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16

1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22

1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15

1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6

1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31

1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9

1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8

1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9

1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19

1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26

1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17

1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10

1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34

1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9

1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26

1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22

1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23

1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6

1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17

1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11

1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26

2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12

2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17

2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33

2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17

2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7

2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30

2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22

2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23

2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19

2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8

2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48

2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19

2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28

2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........21

2014..........0.......0.......0......3......3......2...........8..........6

2015..........0.......0.......1......5......8......6..........20.......23

............................................................................................

The most 90's for...

April...3 in 1976 and 2002...

May....5 in 1991...

June...11 in 1943

July...20 in 1993...

Aug...15 in 1980...

Sept...8 in 1961...

I should note that 90 degrees was recorded in October 1927, 1938, 1939 once and 1941 twice...