snowman19 Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Latest values: Region 1+2: 2.4 (+0.1) Region 3: 2.9 (no change) Region 3.4: 2.9 (+0.1) Region 4: 1.7 (no change) This ain't collapsing... Since Friday, it would appear region 3.4 warmed again, up to +3.0C which is not surprising given the last WWB, SOI drop and kelvin wave. There may be a brief secondary peak, which is not at all unusual in very strong Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Since Friday, it would appear region 3.4 warmed again, up to +3.0C which is not surprising given the last WWB, SOI drop and kelvin wave. There may be a brief secondary peak, which is not at all unusual in very strong Ninos Another wwb is coming as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The euro ensemble mean develops a sightly below normal h5 height anomaly on January 2nd. By January 4th it's already gone with ridging pushing back in. It's not deep at all. Short wavelengths. And this is at 300hr+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Since Friday, it would appear region 3.4 warmed again, up to +3.0C which is not surprising given the last WWB, SOI drop and kelvin wave. There may be a brief secondary peak, which is not at all unusual in very strong Ninos Heh... latest daily SOI comes in at +30.70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Heh... latest daily SOI comes in at +30.70. That's its highest figure since June 13, 2014 when it reached +31.28. Some of the guidance still forecasts a sharp fall in the SOI. Strongly negative values have often coincided with a trough in the southern U.S. So such an outcome would lend support to the growing body of guidance supporting possible troughing somewhere in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Heh... latest daily SOI comes in at +30.70.That post was referring to the past -SOI burst burst man. And it's about to free fall negative again, the system is already in motion, the tone has been been set, this is the strongest Nino in history, it's an absolute beast, who cares at this point? History was made this year and its decline will be slow as we can see. Merry Christmas, better things to worry about tonight, go have fun, night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That post was referring to the past -SOI burst burst man. And it's about to free fall negative again, the system is already in motion, the tone has been been set, this is the strongest Nino in history, it's an absolute beast, who cares at this point? History was made this year and its decline will be slow as we can see. Merry Christmas, better things to worry about tonight, go have fun, night Merry Christmas to you and all others here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 strongest el nino's using the JMA index...snowfall average temperature winter minimum...we need 20" to get into the black...that's possible with one or two good storms...this year is in the top seven and only 1982-83 got average snowfall and most of it came in one storm... 2014 had a +10... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 +33...1997-98.....5.5".....39.6.....14 +29...2015-16................................ +28...1982-83...27.2".....37.9.....12 +23...1888-89...16.5".....32.7.......3 +22...1877-78.....8.1".....33.3.......7 +20...1972-73.....2.8".....35.8.......7 +19...1930-31...11.6".....33.8.....10 +18...1896-97...43.6".....32.7.......6 +16...1899-00...13.4".....33.4.......5 +16...1925-26...32.4".....32.0.......5 +15...1868-69...28.0".....33.0.......4...snowfall estimated...25.6" from Jan-Apr... +14...1902-03...28.7".....32.0.......4 +14...1918-19.....3.8".....36.6.....10 +14...1987-88...19.1".....34.7.......5 +14...1991-92...12.6".....37.2.....11 +14...2009-10...51.4".....33.8.....13 +13...1911-12...29.5".....30.6......-3 +13...1965-66...21.4".....35.9.......8 +13...2006-07...12.4".....36.5.......8 +12...1957-58...44.7".....33.3.......3 +12...1951-52...19.7".....37.0.......8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nino regions all down this week R 1+2 , 3 and 3.4 and 4 in that order from left to right: 16DEC2015 25.2 2.4 28.0 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.7 23DEC2015 25.2 2.1 28.0 2.7 29.3 2.7 30.0 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Given the ongoing pattern evolution debate, I took a look at the December cases that met the following criteria: 1. 500 mb height anomalies of 1σ or above the 1950-1995 mean in an area bounded by 35N-55N/60W-80W 2. December AO average of +0.75 or above 3. El Niño The following December cases were available during the 1950-2014 period: 1982, 1994, and 2006. 1982-83 was the only case that featured a super El Niño. With the requisite note about uncertainty given the small sample size, the following is a summary of outcomes: 1. All three cases saw December produce the warmest anomalies of meteorological winter in the East. 2. 2/3 cases saw the emergence of a mean trough in some part of the East during January. 3. 3/3 cases saw a mean trough somewhere in the East toward February. 4. 3/3 cases saw February wind up as the coldest month of meteorological winter relative to normal. So far, the 500 mb pattern seems to be evolving toward something between January 1983 and January 1995, but at perhaps an accelerated pace given the forecast blocking. In short, taking into consideration all of the above, it is reasonable to state that the warmest part of meteorological winter is ending (pretty obvious given December's historic warmth) and that a pattern more conducive to cold outbreaks is evolving. February offers the highest potential for the desired combination (at least by many of us) of cold and snow. Finally, the pattern evolution is already underway. The SOI has returned to strongly negative values. The PNA has gone positive. The El Niño may be starting to decay at a somewhat faster rate (especially in the eastern ENSO regions) if the latest weekly figures are representative. This stage of the ENSO's decline is important, as the 1982-83 ENSO event had a later tri-monthly peak. A somewhat faster decline at a somewhat earlier stage could produce a colder outcome than what one saw during winter 1982-83 during the latter part of January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Latest numbers: Nino tanking in the east. 1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Latest numbers: Nino tanking in the east. 1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5. This East-based fade is a big victory for the guidance. Over the past month, Regions 1+2 and 3 have cooled by 0.8°C and 0.4°C respectively. Regions 3.4 and 4 have each cooled by 0.3°C. The El Niño has clearly peaked and is fading, with the greatest cooling in the East. This development will likely influence the El Niño's forcing allowing for potentially more opportunities for a cold end to winter. Things could still go wrong e.g., if Region 1+2's cooling slows or stalls, but right now that does not appear to be a high probability outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Paging snowman and his never-ending kelvin waves that will warm Nino 1.2. There is a massive WWB underway. 28C is magic mark for convection you can see in concert with the big westerly wind burst a massive reversal of trades incredible area of near 32C ssts pushing East along the SH side. There is also unprecedented warmth North of enso 1-2 with a huge area of convection level ssts. Solar insolation is again increasing over the NH side. This nino isn't going to fade fast at all. If this trade set up doesnt relent we will see a 3rd year nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 A quick note: Strong WWBs have occurred as some El Niño events have been fading. WWBs during the latter stages of an El Niño may contribute to the slowed decay of such events. Otherwise, such events might rapidly collapse. For example, during the 1997-98 super El Niño event, strong WWBs occurred during the January 10-February 6, February 11-19, February 22-March 29, and April 23-May 4 timeframes in 1998. El Niño conditions persisted through May, June saw Region 3.4 develop cool anomalies, and then Region 3.4's anomaly fell below -0.50°C in July. IMO, given the latest weekly ENSO data, it is increasingly clear that the current event has peaked. It is now fading, with the fastest cooling in the East. The guidance supports a continuation of that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 There is a massive WWB underway. 28C is magic mark for convection you can see in concert with the big westerly wind burst a massive reversal of trades incredible area of near 32C ssts pushing East along the SH side. There is also unprecedented warmth North of enso 1-2 with a huge area of convection level ssts. Solar insolation is again increasing over the NH side. This nino isn't going to fade fast at all. If this trade set up doesnt relent we will see a 3rd year nino. NCEP disagrees with where you/they think we force . Which 2 look the same ? Forces bet 155 -175 which is consistent with most basin wide analogs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I didn't say anything about forcing I was merely talking about the near future of this el nino. The 1998 epac sub surface had a massive cold pool. This year the warm pool is still very large and the cold pool is much weaker and further West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I didn't say anything about forcing I was merely talking about the near future of this el nino. The 1998 epac sub surface had a massive cold pool. This year the warm pool is still very large and the cold pool is much weaker and further West OK was not sure what this was "28C is magic mark for convection " We have been forcing closer to 31 c waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The tao/triton subsurface data shows the warm pool between the dateline and 150E starting to grow in response to the off the CHARTS WWB TAKING PLACE THAT IS ONLY FORECASTED TO EXPAND IN SIZE LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE WISE THE next 10 days. With solar insolation starting to rise again at the equator heat will start to pool again in response to these wwbs. Can anyone link me to historic. Zonal wind anomalies so they can be compared to other big events?? Just thought it was worth noting how ridiculously warm the subtropical East PAC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure if it will show up on CPC data but enso 1-3 has been warming again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure if it will show up on CPC data but enso 1-3 has been warming again. It did. ENSO Region 1+2 warmed by 0.2°C and ENSO Region 3 warmed by 0.1°C in the just-released weekly numbers. Regions 3.4 and 4 cooled by 0.1°C each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It did. ENSO Region 1+2 warmed by 0.2°C and ENSO Region 3 warmed by 0.1°C in the just-released weekly numbers. Regions 3.4 and 4 cooled by 0.1°C each. Don does it really matter anymore for this winter? We are halfway through, and the winter will end with a strong Nino.I think as we head toward summer it will fade,could effect hurricane season with a possible Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Latest numbers: Nino 1.2 continues to drop. Down to +1.4 (-0.4) Nino 3 is up for the second week to +2.8 (+0.1) Nino 3.4 is unchanged at +2.6 Nino 4 is down to +1.3 (-0.1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Another week, another nail in the coffin of the east-based nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Don does it really matter anymore for this winter? We are halfway through, and the winter will end with a strong Nino.I think as we head toward summer it will fade,could effect hurricane season with a possible Nina Sorry about the delay, as I missed this message. I agree that this winter will end with a strong El Niño. A rapid shift into La Niño could promote an active hurricane season, as happened in 1998. A slow fade of the El Niño with a delayed onset of La Niña, though could dampen it, as occurred in 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Latest numbers: Nino 1.2 continues to drop. Down to +1.4 (-0.4) Nino 3 is up for the second week to +2.8 (+0.1) Nino 3.4 is unchanged at +2.6 Nino 4 is down to +1.3 (-0.1) It's a nice collapse in 1.2. It's a loss of 1.2 C over the last 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What sort of summer would we have though is the big question.... Colder? Warmer? Wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What's the latest number? I really care! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +1.4 (no change) Nino 3: +2.5 (-0.3) Nino 3.4: +2.5 (-0.1) Nino 4: +1.4 (+0.1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 JUST PUTTING A BOW ON THIS . We can see the collapse east to west as well as where the best upward motion has set up during the month of Jan . Going forward into FEB expect more of the same and at 500 there is a trough in the GOA a POS PNA extending over the top with a mean trough in the SE . Many of us worked in there since May making these very arguments . It is easy to see why we/where we are forcing relative to the cooler E region . 30SEP2015 23.4 2.8 27.6 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.107OCT2015 23.4 2.7 27.7 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.014OCT2015 23.3 2.5 27.5 2.6 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.121OCT2015 23.1 2.2 27.5 2.6 29.2 2.5 29.9 1.328OCT2015 23.4 2.3 27.7 2.8 29.4 2.7 30.0 1.404NOV2015 23.4 2.1 27.8 2.8 29.5 2.8 30.3 1.711NOV2015 23.5 2.0 27.9 3.0 29.7 3.0 30.3 1.718NOV2015 23.8 2.1 28.0 3.0 29.7 3.1 30.4 1.825NOV2015 24.4 2.4 28.0 3.0 29.6 3.0 30.3 1.802DEC2015 24.7 2.4 27.9 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.709DEC2015 24.8 2.3 28.0 2.9 29.4 2.8 30.2 1.716DEC2015 25.2 2.4 28.0 2.9 29.5 2.9 30.2 1.723DEC2015 25.2 2.1 28.0 2.7 29.3 2.7 30.0 1.630DEC2015 25.2 1.6 28.0 2.6 29.3 2.7 29.9 1.506JAN2016 25.7 1.8 28.1 2.7 29.1 2.6 29.7 1.413JAN2016 25.7 1.4 28.3 2.8 29.2 2.6 29.6 1.320JAN2016 26.0 1.4 28.2 2.5 29.1 2.5 29.6 1.4 FEB 1958 IS ON THE TABLE . ( KUDOS TO TOM IF IT HAPPENS ) . JUST WOW AT THE CALLS OVER AND OVER IN HERE OF 72/73 97/98 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 The calls for region 3.4 to peak at +1.9C Lol that was only off by over a degree. Actual 3.4 weekly peak: +3.1C. The early peak calls were equally as horrifically dreadful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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