Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[ClicheVortex2014]

57/58 just saw this my man.

My bad, that should've registered in my head.

 

57-58 is still much different from what we've seen

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/0WFZsgEebH.png

[PB GFI]

My bad, that should've registered in my head.

 

57-58 is still much different from what we've seen

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/0WFZsgEebH.png

[ClicheVortex2014]

Couldn't be further apart

 

[PB GFI]

Couldn't be further apart

 

 

What did the second half look like at 500 ?  , here`s what it did at 2m from the 16th on .

Basin wide NINO  and a warm Dec is on par and the forcing was similar .

The turn colder J-F looked in line with the Euro . Is why I use it . 

 

Never going to match perfect across the board . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

What did the second half look like at 500 ?  , here`s what it did at 2m from the 16th on .

Basin wide NINO  and a warm Dec is on par . 

The turn colder J-F looked in line with the Euro . It is why I use it . 

Second half is more in line with the pattern we've seen so far this December.

 

But for December overall, it's not going to match up with what we're gonna see for December 2015.

 

 

I still maintain the Nov-Dec pattern in 1972 matches most with this Nov-Dec. And CFS's forecast for January matches with the pattern observed in January 1973, as I've already posted.

 

[PB GFI]

Second half is more in line with the pattern we've seen so far this December.

 

But for December overall, it's not going to match up with what we're gonna see for December 2015.

 

 

I still maintain the Nov-Dec pattern in 1972 matches most with this Nov-Dec. And CFS's forecast for January matches with the pattern observed in January 1973, as I've already posted.

 

 

Nice match in AK with 57 

The basin wide NINO looks good .

The forcing is similar . 

Never going to be perfect . 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nice match in AK with 57 

The basin wide NINO looks good .

The forcing is similar . 

Never going to be perfect . 

I mean, yeah... the Alaskan trough matches with 57... but what about the rest of the US?

 

Anyway... we can agree to disagree and let time speak for itself. Whether you use 1972-73 as an analog or 1957-58, both Januarys were similar with a Nina-esque/-PDO pattern. The real difference comes in February. Both were wintery, but one was more extreme than the other. I think this comes down to how the Nino collapses.

 

So far, I'd argue the Nino is most similar to 1972-73 in terms of strength and location. 1957-58 crashed from the east and rapidly became among the most west-based Ninos on record.

 

I think for February, we'll see a mix of 1973 and 1958. I certainly don't buy CFS's output for February at this point.

[PB GFI]

I mean, yeah... the Alaskan trough matches with 57... but what about the rest of the US?

 

Anyway... we can agree to disagree and let time speak for itself. Whether you use 1972-73 as an analog or 1957-58, both Januarys were similar with a Nina-esque/-PDO pattern. The real difference comes in February. Both were wintery, but one was more extreme than the other. I think this comes down to how the Nino collapses.

 

So far, I'd argue the Nino is most similar to 1957-58 in terms of strength and location. In 1972-73, it appears the Nino started to collapse from the east, but ended up collapsing from the west. 1957-58 crashed from the east and rapidly became among the most west-based Ninos on record.

 

I think for February, we'll see a mix of 1973 and 1958. I certainly don't buy CFS's output for February at this point.

 

 

I think we agree on a lot here . 

[packbacker]

This isn't 58 or 10 or whatever, it's a classic Nino/+QBO winter progression. This isn't flipping until end of Jan at earliest, or I should say change to the more canonical Nino (NE pac low, plains to SE trough). STJ will get going early Jan, PV will intermittently be pushed off pole but DJF will solidly average +AO. We have never had a +QBO/Lsolar winter when DEC +AO that average negative over DJF.

I could have thrown more w-QBO/Lsolar (<150sfu) but it shows the same progression.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ugh - I meant to say 

 

So far, I'd argue the Nino is most similar to 1972-73 in terms of strength and location.

 

 

Not 

 

So far, I'd argue the Nino is most similar to 1957-58 in terms of strength and location.

 

I hope that was apparent by the context.

[snowman19]

HM said the pattern does not start shifting until mid to late January and the actual flip happens in February. He's favoring more late January for the beginnings of a pattern change

[snowman19]

This isn't 58 or 10 or whatever, it's a classic Nino/+QBO winter progression. This isn't flipping until end of Jan at earliest, or I should say change to the more canonical Nino (NE pac low, plains to SE trough). STJ will get going early Jan, PV will intermittently be pushed off pole but DJF will solidly average +AO. We have never had a +QBO/Lsolar winter when DEC +AO that average negative over DJF.

I could have thrown more w-QBO/Lsolar (<150sfu) but it shows the same progression.

Very good post could not agree more, it's status quo until the end of January. When you factor everything in, very strong/super El Niño, low solar, strong +QBO, +PDO, it very strongly favors February as to when the flip to a "winter" month happens

[SnoSki14]

HM said the pattern does not start shifting until mid to late January and the actual flip happens in February. He's favoring more late January for the beginnings of a pattern change

Agree with him, when pattern changes occur they often run on a delay. The wheels may be in motion by mid Jan but the public would still be basking in the warmth on the surface.

[PB GFI]

Very good post could not agree more, it's status quo until the end of January. When you factor everything in, very strong/super El Niño, low solar, strong +QBO, +PDO, it very strongly favors February as to when the flip to a "winter" month happens

The old day 28 from the weeklies 2 weeks ago and the new day 15 . The ensembles are speeding up the change .

 

It may be a little quick and like I said yesterday we need to make sure this step down is not just a transient one .  I have always like the 10 thru the 15th  but this would represent a quicker change .

 

 

There is a nice battle taking shape between the GFS and Euro as for where the MJO goes .

The GFS kills is after phase 6 the Euro is taking it around .  

 

 

[Isotherm]

NCrain and snowman - how do you define 'pattern flip / status quo'? My interpretation of both of your posts is that you essentially anticipate a continuation of the December regime through the end of January.

 

All I can say at this juncture is that it will be interesting to revisit our collective thoughts in about a month. I've presented my opinions on the progression w/ scientific backing. Ensemble guidance is now detecting what I've been expecting for the D10-15 time frame, with the development of a NPAC/W Canadian ridge and concomitant SE US trough by early January, which arguably, would be a significant "pattern change" from right now (and certainly not status quo). Temperatures would be suppressed much closer to seasonable levels. Beyond early January, the pattern should continue to evolve for reasons discussed in my previous posts.

[snowman19]

NCrain and snowman - how do you define 'pattern flip / status quo'? My interpretation of both of your posts is that you essentially anticipate a continuation of the December regime through the end of January.

All I can say at this juncture is that it will be interesting to revisit our collective thoughts in about a month. I've presented my opinions on the progression w/ scientific backing. Ensemble guidance is now detecting what I've been expecting for the D10-15 time frame, with the development of a NPAC/W Canadian ridge and concomitant SE US trough by early January, which arguably, would be a significant "pattern change" from right now (and certainly not status quo). Temperatures would be suppressed much closer to seasonable levels. Beyond early January, the pattern should continue to evolve for reasons discussed in my previous posts.

No, I'm not expecting severely above normal temps like the last month, BUT obviously not crazy warm, status quo meaning still above normal temps nothing like we've seen and below average snow until the end of January. I'm all for a pattern flip to a typical February but this pattern is not just going to change overnight, it's going to take time. There is good evidence for a SSW around mid January, then when you figure in the lag effect after the warming begins (around 20 days) you are at the end of January, final days, before the effects start to be felt. This progression is actually following a strong Nino, +QBO, low solar, +PDO setup as I already mentioned. I think the wintry month is February. Based on past very strong Nino climo, March is not good for cold and snow but that is something that will have to be followed closely once into February to see if it is actually going to follow climo into March. I'd favor a poor March right now but leave it open for the possibly that it may not follow it, since it is a small sample size, IMO this is

[Snow_Miser]

You can see tropospheric improvements before the 'official' displacement or 'official' split, as Tom has pointed out. January 1958 is a great example. Split officially happened on January 30, 1958, yet that month as a whole finished near normal. 

[PB GFI]

The pattern is already changing around Jan 1 on the euro ensembles.
The ridge develops on the WC and a deep trough into the E.

The MJO heads into phase 8 and supports a trough on the EC.
This pattern changes before Feb , to my surprise it's faster than the 10th thru 15th I had thought .

[Morris]

The pattern is already changing around Jan 1on the euro ensembles.

The ridge develops on the WC and a deep trough into the E.

The MJO heads into phase 8 and supports a trough on the EC.

This pattern changes before Feb , to my surprise it's faster than the 10th thru 15th I had thought .

Which part leads you to think that it's not transient? Just interested.

[PB GFI]

Which part leads you to think that it's not transient? Just interested.

I can't tell for sure. But the trough Is gone from the west . The trough splits in AK and send a piece to where the euro seasonal sets it up.

The CFS doesn't even hint at that. The ridge goes up on the WC of Canada.

If the MJO rolls all the way around and the vortex gets displaced it's game on.

The guidance is stating to show all of the above. It could be just the 1st step , but it's def a good early step

[The_Global_Warmer]

The euro ensemble mean develops a sightly below normal h5 height anomaly on January 2nd.

By January 4th it's already gone with ridging pushing back in.

It's not deep at all.

Short wavelengths.

And this is at 300hr+

[PB GFI]

The euro ensemble mean develops a sightly below normal h5 height anomaly on January 2nd.

By January 4th it's already gone with ridging pushing back in.

It's not deep at all.

Short wavelengths.

And this is at 300hr+

Dude you are in the deep end pool here with this stuff. When you come in here please be prepared to be pushed back on.

By day 11 there is a trough in the SE then E . 850 anamolies from day 12 they 15 are now NEG.

The heights on the WC of Canada pump to the point where the minus 8s and 10a next spike to plus 10 between day 12 to 15.

The trough in AK splits by day 10 and sends one piece S of the Aleutians and stays there.

When you see that kind of NEG there and those heights spike just to its east you will see the trough in the east get deeper as you get

The ridge isn't coming east between day 12 to 15 it's actually being forced further N on the WC. The great that ridge pumps the deeper the trough.

Your forecasts have been abhorrent yet you saunter in here like an expert and continue to waste my time having to take apart your bad posts .

[PB GFI]

No trough is ever permanent nor does it have to get frigid in January for it to snow. But these weeks of plus 10 are over once into early Jan

You will never avoid the trough pulling back but in good patterns they return quickly.

You are going to leave this very warm December pattern once you get into January and step down towards a more N temperature regime .

The calls for a torched / snow less winter have very few allies in the guidance .

Lastly the let's make a deal approach to this entire event has been been fun to watch.

First there were those who were convinced that this was 97/98 and were sure of an east based event. Months and months went by in here of posters ignoring the migration west but they insisted how this just had to verify.

Then it headed west and nov/dec failed to finish BN like 97 so they turned to 11/12 . You know the pattern only looked good in the L/R and this year like that will not capitulate from the torch.

Well those 4 week weeklies became 3 and those 3 weeks are now 12 days out. I wonder what they next argument will be ?

[donsutherland1]

It should also be noted that the SOI is forecast to possibly go strongly negative in the extended range. Such a situation has often led to a trough in the Southeast during strong El Niño events. IMO, there seems to be growing support for at least the relaxation of the current pattern responsible for the excessive warmth during much of December. 

[packbacker]

NCrain and snowman - how do you define 'pattern flip / status quo'? My interpretation of both of your posts is that you essentially anticipate a continuation of the December regime through the end of January.

All I can say at this juncture is that it will be interesting to revisit our collective thoughts in about a month. I've presented my opinions on the progression w/ scientific backing. Ensemble guidance is now detecting what I've been expecting for the D10-15 time frame, with the development of a NPAC/W Canadian ridge and concomitant SE US trough by early January, which arguably, would be a significant "pattern change" from right now (and certainly not status quo). Temperatures would be suppressed much closer to seasonable levels. Beyond early January, the pattern should continue to evolve for reasons discussed in my previous posts.

No, I'm not expecting severely above normal temps like the last month, BUT obviously not crazy warm, status quo meaning still above normal temps nothing like we've seen and below average snow until the end of January. I'm all for a pattern flip to a typical February but this pattern is not just going to change overnight, it's going to take time. There is good evidence for a SSW around mid January, then when you figure in the lag effect after the warming begins (around 20 days) you are at the end of January, final days, before the effects start to be felt. This progression is actually following a strong Nino, +QBO, low solar, +PDO setup as I already mentioned. I think the wintry month is February. Based on past very strong Nino climo, March is not good for cold and snow but that is something that will have to be followed closely once into February to see if it is actually going to follow climo into March. I'd favor a poor March right now but leave it open for the possibly that it may not follow it, since it is a small sample size, IMO this is

Agree with snowman... I think this early Jan change is a head fake, we shall see though. I think middle 2 weeks are nothing static and we don't lock into the aletuian low/canonical Nino until after mid-Jan. I also wouldn't be surprise the MA to NE see an event first week, but interior is obviously favored, it seems like it wants to snow in your areas so don't see that changing this winter. Seeing the GEFS/EPS trending better first week of Jan is interesting but head fake seems most likely IMO just based on another nino's analogs. Once we lock after mid-month it's locked for a period of time but not sure about AO since displacement is favored.

I do think the SE is probably neutral to +2 for temps in Jan and obviously the further north you go the warmer you are. As frustrating as Dec is ts following strong Nino/w-QBO climo, just very extreme in Dec.

You have a great point, we will flip from this record Dec warmth around New Years but I don't think it's the last time we see 60's this winter.

[Isotherm]

You can see tropospheric improvements before the 'official' displacement or 'official' split, as Tom has pointed out. January 1958 is a great example. Split officially happened on January 30, 1958, yet that month as a whole finished near normal. 

 

 

Thanks, Paul.

 

The notion that the tropospheric pattern is hostile / very hostile until 1-2 weeks post stratospheric warming is a major myth. The actual research suggests that tropospheric changes usually occur weeks prior, and in some cases, tropospheric blocking was present for over a month before the actual warming event. The progression this winter looks quite similar to 1958 given the strong Nino / +QBO background state, though I continue to favor displacement over split. The NAM shifted largely negative by the second week of January in 1958, 3 weeks prior to the event. I expect a similar evolution here w/ the neutralization and biased negative NAM sometime in the second week of month [7th-14th]. Tomorrow night's weeklies should be interesting.

[snowman19]

Agree with snowman... I think this early Jan change is a head fake, we shall see though. I think middle 2 weeks are nothing static and we don't lock into the aletuian low/canonical Nino until after mid-Jan. I also wouldn't be surprise the MA to NE see an event first week, but interior is obviously favored, it seems like it wants to snow in your areas so don't see that changing this winter. Seeing the GEFS/EPS trending better first week of Jan is interesting but head fake seems most likely IMO just based on another nino's analogs. Once we lock after mid-month it's locked for a period of time but not sure about AO since displacement is favored.

I do think the SE is probably neutral to +2 for temps in Jan and obviously the further north you go the warmer you are. As frustrating as Dec is ts following strong Nino/w-QBO climo, just very extreme in Dec.

You have a great point, we will flip from this record Dec warmth around New Years but I don't think it's the last time we see 60's this winter.

Given how very strong the stratospheric polar vortex is, a split is very unlikely. Most likely scenario is that it elongates, not splits. Judah Cohen mentioned in his last update that this will very likely be elongation not a total split

[Weathergun]

The Aleutian low and Scandinavian/Barents-Kara sea ridge appear to be enough to give us +PNA with near normal temperatures, shortly after the New Year's. Regardless, whether or not the strat PV splits

[Morris]

Latest values:

 

Region 1+2: 2.4 (+0.1)                                                                                                                                                       Region 3: 2.9 (no change)                                                                                                                                                   Region 3.4: 2.9 (+0.1)                                                                                                                                                         Region 4: 1.7 (no change)

 

This ain't collapsing...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree with snowman... I think this early Jan change is a head fake, we shall see though. I think middle 2 weeks are nothing static and we don't lock into the aletuian low/canonical Nino until after mid-Jan. I also wouldn't be surprise the MA to NE see an event first week, but interior is obviously favored, it seems like it wants to snow in your areas so don't see that changing this winter. Seeing the GEFS/EPS trending better first week of Jan is interesting but head fake seems most likely IMO just based on another nino's analogs. Once we lock after mid-month it's locked for a period of time but not sure about AO since displacement is favored.

I do think the SE is probably neutral to +2 for temps in Jan and obviously the further north you go the warmer you are. As frustrating as Dec is ts following strong Nino/w-QBO climo, just very extreme in Dec.

You have a great point, we will flip from this record Dec warmth around New Years but I don't think it's the last time we see 60's this winter.

I agree with this school of thought.