Yanksfan Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Those are the latest values. Next week, December 9 values will be released. December 9 values are already out. Here's the latest rundown: Region 1+2: 2.3 (-0.1) Region 3: 2.9 no change Region 3.4: 2.8 (-0.1) Region 4: 1.7 no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 December 9 values are already out. Here's the latest rundown: Region 1+2: 2.3 (-0.1) Region 3: 2.9 no change Region 3.4: 2.8 (-0.1) Region 4: 1.7 no change Don't mind me. My internet is just... terrible at updating pages. I need a few good refreshes for the page to update. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thanks No problem. Bottomline we better start seeing some significant cooling in the coming weeks if we're going to salvage this winter. I know there are other anomalies at play here, but strong Nino's normally do not work out well for us as far as cold and snow is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Interesting... 2015's subsurface isn't even that great in comparison to 1982 and 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Interesting... 2015's subsurface isn't even that great in comparison to 1982 and 1997. At depth. The 20C isotherm moves 20M up or down over large areas of the epac between certain depths and anomalies change from 2C+ to 8C+. But this has no direct effect on the actual ssts in that moment. Only later when the mixing takes place will that heat come to the surface. Secondly downwelling thermal radiation is likely a stronger component at the surface now than it was in 1982/83 and 1997/98. This is likely having a small effect. Somewhere between 0.2-0.4C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 for the first time and pretty much 2015 the Pacific equatorial trade winds are starting to hint at a retro grading collapse look. and taking a second look at that they have backed off on that as well but are not as East and vigorous with the weaker trades. however CFS is starting to show and absolutely massive westerly wind burst originating out of the Date Line and slamming the entire eastern equatorial Pacific region with that said even if that happens it would probably only delay the weakening of the ninja vs strengthening it since thermal inertia due to changes in seasonal solar insolation is going to force the warm pool to weaken considerably regardless of the trades with that being said This would allow the colder subsurface to actually surface over the far WPAC while the Nino roars. This would ensure this nino stays put. Infact enso 1-2 and eastern 3 are actually warming due to climo even tho the anomalies are essentially unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 too fast It agrees with the CFS as it is slower on the front end but they agree on where it`s heads to by July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Many of the analogs point to a warm Dec - so scratch month 1 .Winter should appear from mid Jan into March , What that means in terms of snow - NO ONE knows . You always run the risk of being too blocky and watching that STJ go off to your South . I am just looking at temp profiles . No change here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I changed to " should " , so we almost agree I will stay away from temps , Dec could start off so warm that N would not shock me . That 500 mb map is wet on the EC . I like AN snow - I don`t think i`m reaching. Mods can see no edits here . No changes . Please calm down , I am getting dizzy watching some of you so high up on the ledge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Mods can see no edits here . No changes . Please calm down , I am getting dizzy watching some of you so high up on the ledge . I'd venture to guess no one predicted a strong SE ridge and the warmest december on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I'd venture to guess no one predicted a strong SE ridge and the warmest december on record. Well saying Dec could start off so WARM meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept . That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct . So the mid Jan call after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Well saying Dec could start off so WARM meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept . That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct . So the mid Jan call after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . If J-M ends a torch, it won't be counted as 2/3. It will be 0/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 If J-M ends a torch, it won't be counted as 2/3. It will be 0/3. I am sure. What were they in the ENSO thread - 0 for the summer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I am sure. What were they in the ENSO thread - 0 for the summer ? Sorry I overlooked that point. I counted N and D as two things. They really should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 too fast In the previous 4 strongest Ninos, region 3.4 hit 0C in the same time period as JAMSTEC has it. Then again... this Nino has farther to fall than the rest... about 0.5C more. Well saying Dec could start off so WARM meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept . That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct . So the mid Jan call after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . Pretty sure the calls for a very warm December were on the basis of +++EPO causing zonal flow. Did you think that, in a Super Nino and +++PDO, we'd see a 60 day period of troughs consistently digging into the west? -- I think we might've talked about how the 1972-73 Nino is similar, but it's not suitable as an analog because of the PDO. Surprisingly, the pattern so far has been similar. They're off in magnitude, but similar with the positions of troughs and ridges in the US. January 1973 looks somewhat similar to the CFS forecast for next month And February 1973 finally brought winter. Some pretty impressive similarities. But just for the record, I'm expecting the pattern change to happen later in January. Not sure I buy CFS's output of basically a continuation of this December. But certainly, stranger things have happened... for example, November and December of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 57 58 65 66. 72 73. 82 83. Are all good analogs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The pattern we've seen so far is most similar with 72-73 though. 1956 is a world apart. 1956: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/OcRqSK0xaR.png 1965: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/liFYPvxEqL.png 1982: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/c9yZ_5w4N7.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I think Paul meant 57-58 (possibly) Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 If you group El Ninos into what the PDO averaged from Nov-Apr and then look at the individual months of those El Nino years, it looks like Dec meets the El Nino, PDO Neutral combo somewhat closely. Certainly closer than El Nino warm PDO or El Nino cold PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I think Paul meant 57-58 (possibly) Sent from my SM-G925V Yes man , thank you. 57 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The pattern we've seen so far is most similar with 72-73 though. 1956 is a world apart. 1956: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/OcRqSK0xaR.png 1965: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/liFYPvxEqL.png 1982: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/c9yZ_5w4N7.png 57/58 just saw this my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'd venture to guess no one predicted a strong SE ridge and the warmest december on record. My # 1 analog was the warmest December on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I agree that 1972 is the best match thus far, but that means little moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 58 is a wishcast analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 58 is a wishcast analog Why? Some meteorological reasoning would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Here`s some reasoning for 57/58 . The positive anomalies stretch across the entire basin , both had warm Dec and both collapse ( will collapse ) quickly . This years forecast is even quicker . ( The JMA and CFS agree ) . No 2 NINOs are ever alike , but I assume the fact that the back end turns colder that make some think this is a wishcast . 57/58 seem to be in many forecast analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Note the way the eastern ridge lifts poleward into se Canada....that is what much of the favorable guidance does. This is why the STJ hasn't been much of a factor...it has been squashed by that monster ridge....once that lifts into Canada, the STJ will lift northward and heights will be able to lower. Hopefully that ridge can ultimately manifest itself into some blocking. Maybe it won't be as pronounced as 1958, bit it will end this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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