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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Those are the latest values. Next week, December 9 values will be released.

December 9 values are already out. Here's the latest rundown:                                                                                                                      Region 1+2: 2.3 (-0.1)                                                                                                                                                                                        Region 3: 2.9 no change                                                                                                                                                                                     Region 3.4: 2.8 (-0.1)                                                                                                                                                                                          Region 4: 1.7 no change  

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December 9 values are already out. Here's the latest rundown:                                                                                                                      Region 1+2: 2.3 (-0.1)                                                                                                                                                                                        Region 3: 2.9 no change                                                                                                                                                                                     Region 3.4: 2.8 (-0.1)                                                                                                                                                                                          Region 4: 1.7 no change

Don't mind me. My internet is just... terrible at updating pages. I need a few good refreshes for the page to update. Thanks.

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OISSTv2_Nov_export.png

ERSSTv4cent_Nov_export.png

Interesting... 2015's subsurface isn't even that great in comparison to 1982 and 1997.

At depth.

The 20C isotherm moves 20M up or down over large areas of the epac between certain depths and anomalies change from 2C+ to 8C+.

But this has no direct effect on the actual ssts in that moment.

Only later when the mixing takes place will that heat come to the surface.

Secondly downwelling thermal radiation is likely a stronger component at the surface now than it was in 1982/83 and 1997/98.

This is likely having a small effect. Somewhere between 0.2-0.4C+.

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for the first time and pretty much 2015 the Pacific equatorial trade winds are starting to hint at a retro grading collapse look.

and taking a second look at that they have backed off on that as well but are not as East and vigorous with the weaker trades.

however CFS is starting to show and absolutely massive westerly wind burst originating out of the Date Line and slamming the entire eastern equatorial Pacific region

with that said even if that happens it would probably only delay the weakening of the ninja vs strengthening it since thermal inertia due to changes in seasonal solar insolation is going to force the warm pool to weaken considerably regardless of the trades with that being said

This would allow the colder subsurface to actually surface over the far WPAC while the Nino roars.

This would ensure this nino stays put.

Infact enso 1-2 and eastern 3 are actually warming due to climo even tho the anomalies are essentially unchanged.

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Many of the analogs point to a warm Dec - so scratch month 1 .Winter should appear from mid Jan into March ,

What that means in terms of snow - NO ONE knows .  You always run the risk of being too blocky and watching that STJ go off to your South .

 

I am just looking at temp profiles . 

 

No change here 

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I changed to " should " , so we almost agree 

I will stay away from temps , Dec could start off so warm that N would not shock me .

 

That 500 mb map is wet on the EC . I like AN snow - I don`t think i`m reaching. 

 

 

Mods can see no edits here . 

 

No changes .

 

 

Please calm down , I am getting dizzy watching some of you so high up on the ledge  . 

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I'd venture to guess no one predicted a strong SE ridge and the warmest december on record. 

 

 

Well saying Dec could start off so WARM  meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. 

 

The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . 

 

Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept .

 

That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct .

 

So the mid Jan call  after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . 

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Well saying Dec could start off so WARM  meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. 

 

The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . 

 

Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept .

 

That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct .

 

So the mid Jan call  after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . 

 

If J-M ends a torch, it won't be counted as 2/3. It will be 0/3.

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too fast

In the previous 4 strongest Ninos, region 3.4 hit 0C in the same time period as JAMSTEC has it. Then again... this Nino has farther to fall than the rest... about 0.5C more.

 

post-13588-0-16901700-1449025856.png

 

Well saying Dec could start off so WARM  meant the ridge was in the E , but as we got closer I did not see plus 10. 

 

The trough dug so deep in the SW its the natural response . 

 

Point is for those who think we pushed anything back it`s false . N/D was written off in Aug/Sept .

 

That was on the heels of getting the westward migration of the NINO correct .

 

So the mid Jan call  after an expected warm Dec will determine if we go 3 for 3 . 

Pretty sure the calls for a very warm December were on the basis of +++EPO causing zonal flow. Did you think that, in a Super Nino and +++PDO, we'd see a 60 day period of troughs consistently digging into the west?

 

 

--

 

I think we might've talked about how the 1972-73 Nino is similar, but it's not suitable as an analog because of the PDO. Surprisingly, the pattern so far has been similar. 

 

tHS1ydY8sp.png
compday.NlZRbxU52r.gif
 
They're off in magnitude, but similar with the positions of troughs and ridges in the US.
 
January 1973 looks somewhat similar to the CFS forecast for next month
AdGR_0uivS.png
QhsXKG7.gif
 
And February 1973 finally brought winter.
LFB9WdQMRA.png
 
Some pretty impressive similarities. But just for the record, I'm expecting the pattern change to happen later in January. Not sure I buy CFS's output of basically a continuation of this December. But certainly, stranger things have happened... for example, November and December of 2015.
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Here`s some reasoning for 57/58 .  

 

The positive anomalies stretch across the entire basin , both had warm Dec and both collapse ( will collapse ) quickly . This years forecast is even quicker . ( The  JMA and CFS agree ) .

 

No 2 NINOs are ever alike , but I assume the fact that  the back end turns colder that make some think this is a wishcast .

 

57/58 seem to be in many forecast analogs. 

 

 

 

1957_58_wintertemps.jpg

post-7472-0-49373300-1450449907_thumb.pn

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Note the way the eastern ridge lifts poleward into se Canada....that is what much of the favorable guidance does.

This is why the STJ hasn't been much of a factor...it has been squashed by that monster ridge....once that lifts into Canada, the STJ will lift northward and heights will be able to lower.

Hopefully that ridge can ultimately manifest itself into some blocking.

 

Maybe it won't be as pronounced as 1958, bit it will end this crap.

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