PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Yeh Chris , now the hard part. The guidance diverges from here. The CFS stays torched The Euro, Jamstec, SST analog and UKMET force the higher heights back over HB. So that's the last fight left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's pretty obvious that the combo of the strong PV and the El Nino is causing a different flavor of El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yeh Chris , now the hard part. The guidance diverges from here. The CFS stays torched The Euro, Jamstec, SST analog and UKMET force the higher heights back over HB. So that's the last fight left. It's hard to go against the CFS when it did so well but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It's hard to go against the CFS when it did so well but time will tell. Dude they were ALL WARM In NOV DEC what are you missing They all did well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Climo ? The NINO was still east based in July , I first had to be right that the NINO would migrate west , then I have to be right that the forcing remains out bet 160 - 180 No CLIMO was against me in July . NOV/DEC 97 was cold across the CONUS It may that as globe is warming the EL NINO seems to be getting warmer closer to the D/L . 97/98 was east based , so you naturally had greater forcing east . You got it right regardless. I didn't realize the dates didn't mesh until this past post. This (super) Nino still has some tricks up its sleeve. Who would have thought the pac NW would be getting clobbered while SoCal sits relatively dry? This is were our chance still lies in a big second half. If this Nino were playing by the book I would throw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 You got it right regardless. I didn't realize the dates didn't mesh until this past post. This (super) Nino still has some tricks up its sleeve. Who would have thought the pac NW would be getting clobbered while SoCal sits relatively dry? This is were our chance still lies in a big second half. If this Nino were playing by the book I would throw in the towel There is always the chance though we won a lot of the smaller battles but we could still lose the war in terms of how this all ends. If we got the migration right , won the basin wide vs east based argument , stuck a 2 on the ONI ( good call but light ) , kept the warmer water in the EP region intact , got the D/L forcing right and caught the warm start in Nov/Dec only to NOT get a winter like flip from J to M then that would suck from my perspective. I can think of 2 people here that would love that .... I am aware of the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It's pretty obvious that the combo of the strong PV and the El Nino is causing a different flavor of El Nino. No, its a very common flavor of el nino during the month of December. I do not know what in the world you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 No, its a very common flavor of el nino during the month of December. I do not know what in the world you are talking about. Me and ginx and andy have been making reference to occasional ak and us se ridging through the the last month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Me and ginx and andy have been making reference to occasional ak and us se ridging through the the last month or so. The ridging in movie was from the MJO, no? This one kind of has a 1972 feel to it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 In case anyone is wondering if this makes me feel the least bit uncomfortable with my outlook, here is my analog for December, posted in my blog last month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 This el niño is not "different".....its not mutated by the strong PV that everyone and their dog expected.....its doing exactly as many thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 January through March rolled forward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The ridging in movie was from the MJO, no? This one kind of has a 1972 feel to it thus far. That had something to do with that, yea. There appears to be more incoming, however, in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The interesting thing about the pattern coming up for the next few weeks is that it more resembles a strong -PDO era El Nino like December 65 and 72. The NPAC ridge south of the Aleutians and Aleutian Low placement over Western North America has more of a -PDO flavor than the +PDO that we are currently in. But the ridge and warmth over the Northeast is greater than those years were. 500mb.png gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_1.png gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_2.png gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png Yea, def...I mentioned above that this has def. been pulling a 1972 thus far...funny because that was the closest ENSO match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yea, def...I mentioned above that this has def. been pulling a 1972 thus far...funny because that was the closest ENSO match. Well not really..72-73 had a below normal fall and November..December was only slightly above normal..maybe close to Enso but not weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Well not really..72-73 had a below normal fall and November..December was only slightly above normal..maybe close to Enso but not weather I'm not speaking of the sensible weather in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 We started seeing this tendency last May with the trough displaced further east over Western North America. So there were hints to this more -PDO looking El Nino 500 mb pattern early on. It has produced record warmth in the East since May. The pattern coming up the next several weeks is just an extension of this. MAY.png SEP.png NOV.png We'll have to watch that. If that were to ever throw a wrench in things, I'm not sure anyone in the east would have a right to complain after what the west has been subjected to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 We'll have to watch that. If that were to ever throw a wrench in things, I'm not sure anyone in the east would have a right to complain after what the west has been subjected to. I don't think it's a coincidence that the PDO dropped in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I don't think it's a coincidence that the PDO dropped in November Of course it isn't.....its a reflection of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I am wondering if that anomalous blob of warm SST's off the West Coast of the US this year has something to do with it? Notice how the -PDO of May-November 1965 and 1972 had warmer SST's in that region associated with the -PDO. The warmth this year out there well exceeds the typical -PDO composite, but we have never really seen a set up like this before with the very strong El Nino and record warm NPAC. 6572.png 15.png Warm water off of the west coast is indicative of a positive PDO. I can't see those images at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Its starting look like the second half may swing more on the polar fields than perhaps anyone had anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The further west extension of that warm pool is different from your typical +PDO regime. Notice how the classic +PDO signature has a cold pool NE of Hawaii. This year had that record breaking warm pool where cold normally is in a +PDO. That overlap region is where all the warmth was focused in a more -PDO pattern. 15.png comp.gif Interesting. I'll have to look at home....like I said, can't see the images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Is it possible that the atmosphere is telling us a PDO flip is coming? The atmosphere leading the way of the SSTs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Is it possible that the atmosphere is telling us a PDO flip is coming? The atmosphere leading the way of the SSTs? With the Nina coming next year, it's certainly possible. It is striking how there's been so many western troughs since November. I think we're at 5 right now... got 2 more coming in the next week or so (15th and 19th) I just don't know how things are gonna change in the next 2 months. It's possible that we just go back to the western ridge if the Aleutian low retrogrades far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 OLR comparisons from December 1-9 for 1982, 1997, and 2015. And just for comparison... Here is 2009: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 OLR comparisons from December 1-9 for 1982, 1997, and 2015. And just for comparison... Here is 2009: End thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Waiting for the updated numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Region 1+2: +2.4 ( no change ) Region 3: +2.9 ( -0.1 ) Region 3.4: +2.9 ( -0.1 ) Region 4: +1.7 ( -0.1 ) It may be the peak, but another downwelling KW is beginning to push east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Region 1+2: +2.4 ( no change ) Region 3: +2.9 ( -0.1 ) Region 3.4: +2.9 ( -0.1 ) Region 4: +1.7 ( -0.1 ) It may be the peak, but another downwelling KW is beginning to push east. You have last week's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You have last week's. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Those are the latest values. Next week, December 9 values will be released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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