Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[The_Global_Warmer]

most of you lowballed it because you want it to snow

You, me, snowman19 and so on want it to snow too.

Instead we get an epic NA mid level horse torch.

Unless snowfall climo for pretty much everyone North of 35N and East of 95WW has dramatically shifted upwards the law of averages says sh•• years are inevitably coming.

[PB GFI]

This was never collapsing into a Modoki. DT s point was that the greatest upward motion may mimic where you would typically find it during Modoki events because the record warmth In R 3.4 and R 4.

I not sure why some continue to conflate the 2 .

The call has been this strengthens until mid Dec and the turn down will once again start from east to west.

Keep in mind the plus 2 calls were made in SEPT after 70 pages of guidance vs the calls made in MAY.

[KEITH L.I]

You, me, snowman19 and so on want it to snow too.

Instead we get an epic NA mid level horse torch.

Unless snowfall climo for pretty much everyone North of 35N and East of 95WW has dramatically shifted upwards the law of averages says sh•• years are inevitably coming.

What does that mean?  we have had some horrible winters in the last 15 years 01-02,06-07,07-08,11-12..it all averages out! obviously in a strong nino your going to get a mild winter in the east

[easternsnowman]

What does that mean?  we have had some horrible winters in the last 15 years 01-02,06-07,07-08,11-12..it all averages out! obviously in a strong nino your going to get a mild winter in the east

A mild winter on the coastal plain especially south of NYC could mean a snowless winter but inland could be okay because a few degrees above normal is not as important to them as opposed to the big cities.

[donsutherland1]

Overall, my thoughts of a tri-monthly peak at +2.1°C (e.g., http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46340-possible-strongsuper-el-ni%C3%B1o-forming/page-27#entry3653362) will likely wind up too low.

 

Assuming no revisions to the October-November monthly anomalies (ERSSTv4), one would need the following figures to achieve various OND tri-monthly figures:

 

2.1°C: 1.91°C

2.2°C: 2.21°C

2.26°C: 2.39°C (would tie the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak)

2.27°C: 2.42°C (would break the 1997-98 record tri-monthly peak)

2.3°: 2.51°C

 

It appears increasingly likely that the 2015-16 El Niño event will challenge or perhaps even break the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak with a tri-monthly peak coming out somewhere beween 2.2°C and 2.3°C. Monday's weekly data should provide some good insight into the current state of the ongoing El Niño.

[Deck Pic]

Overall, my thoughts of a tri-monthly peak at +2.1°C (e.g., http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46340-possible-strongsuper-el-ni%C3%B1o-forming/page-27#entry3653362) will likely wind up too low.

 

Assuming no revisions to the October-November monthly anomalies (ERSSTv4), one would need the following figures to achieve various OND tri-monthly figures:

 

2.1°C: 1.91°C

2.2°C: 2.21°C

2.26°C: 2.39°C (would tie the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak)

2.27°C: 2.42°C (would break the 1997-98 record tri-monthly peak)

2.3°: 2.51°C

 

It appears increasingly likely that the 2015-16 El Niño event will challenge or perhaps even break the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak with a tri-monthly peak coming out somewhere beween 2.2°C and 2.3°C. Monday's weekly data should provide some good insight into the current state of the ongoing El Niño.

 

 

3.4 OISST on Monday will be either 3.1 or 3.0...I'd lean toward the latter....there has been a sudden cooling the last 2 days...not sure if it is just a blip.

 

as far as trimonthly ONI peak...I'd lean toward 2.2 rather than 2.3 once rounded, but neither would surprise me...I envision November will be adjusted from 2.34 up to 2.45+ or so

[AvantHiatus]

You, me, snowman19 and so on want it to snow too.

Instead we get an epic NA mid level horse torch.

Unless snowfall climo for pretty much everyone North of 35N and East of 95WW has dramatically shifted upwards the law of averages says sh•• years are inevitably coming.

When you add climate factors into the equation, the picture becomes even more chaotic. The current el nino was fueled by a potent OHC build-up post-2007. Anyone who disagrees simply doesn't understand the science.

 

It's crunch time, don't shoot the messenger. 2009-2010 was the sweet spot and now we risk moving past that indefinitely.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What does that mean? we have had some horrible winters in the last 15 years 01-02,06-07,07-08,11-12..it all averages out! obviously in a strong nino your going to get a mild winter in the east

So that's one crap winter out of 7?

What's the average of those winters versus climo for cities in this region?

[The_Global_Warmer]

What does that mean? we have had some horrible winters in the last 15 years 01-02,06-07,07-08,11-12..it all averages out! obviously in a strong nino your going to get a mild winter in the east

So that's one crap winter out of 7?

What's the average of those winters versus climo for cities in this region?

[PB GFI]

When you add climate factors into the equation, the picture becomes even more chaotic. The current el nino was fueled by a potent OHC build-up post-2007. Anyone who disagrees simply doesn't understand the science.

 

It's crunch time, don't shoot the messenger. 2009-2010 was the sweet spot and now we risk moving past that indefinitely.

 

Part 1 may be correct , but keep in mind  even as the long term trend is up you will head into a LA NINA next year and the response should be like in 98 , 04 and  11 a  slight drop in global temperatures ( even if it is temporary ) is possible . 

 

 

 

 

[Weathergun]

November a SOI -3.23 up from -21.30 in Oct. Highest monthly average value since April:

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 

The 30-day moving average has dropped again recently.

[donsutherland1]

3.4 OISST on Monday will be either 3.1 or 3.0...I'd lean toward the latter....there has been a sudden cooling the last 2 days...not sure if it is just a blip.

 

as far as trimonthly ONI peak...I'd lean toward 2.2 rather than 2.3 once rounded, but neither would surprise me...I envision November will be adjusted from 2.34 up to 2.45+ or so

I agree that R3.4 will probably be near 3.0°C when the weekly anomalies are released tomorrow. It's plausible that the El Niño has already peaked or is very close to it. Also, strong WWBs often occur even as El Niño events are declining, so the most recent one does not necessarily mean that the El Niño grew even stronger. We'll see what tomorrow's data show.

[snowman19]

I agree that R3.4 will probably be near 3.0°C when the weekly anomalies are released tomorrow. It's plausible that the El Niño has already peaked or is very close to it. Also, strong WWBs often occur even as El Niño events are declining, so the most recent one does not necessarily mean that the El Niño grew even stronger. We'll see what tomorrow's data show.

Going by the MW imagery, it looks like Nino 3.4 is around +3.1C at the moment

[snowman19]

There may be a problem with the east to west collapse idea, if you look at the graphics and animations Mike Ventrice tweeted yesterday, this is showing the beginnings of a west to east collapse. Notice the upwelling kelvin wave taking shape over the extreme western Nino regions, also note the cold subsurface anomalies there. This needs to be watched closely because at its face, this is strongly suggesting a west to east collapse. Links: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/673132709217214464 And: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/673131743256383490

[donsutherland1]

There may be a problem with the east to west collapse idea, if you look at the graphics and animations Mike Ventrice tweeted yesterday, this is showing the beginnings of a west to east collapse. Notice the upwelling kelvin wave taking shape over the extreme western Nino regions, also note the cold subsurface anomalies there. This needs to be watched closely because at its face, this is strongly suggesting a west to east collapse. Links: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/673132709217214464 And: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/673131743256383490

The collapse of El Niño events is a complex phenomenon. Currently, both the ECMWF and CFSv2 favor a more rapid cooling in the Est than the West. In fact, some of the more recent CFSv2 ensemble members suggest that Regions 3.4 and 4 may feature a little more warming in the near-term, especially Region 4 followed by a gradual cooling. That model may be rushing the cooling in Region 1+2, though I think that region will be cooling gradually in the weeks ahead with some week-to-week fluctuations. A weekly anomaly below +2°C before the end of December remains a distinct possibility even when assuming a more gradual cooling than is currently shown on the CFSv2.

 

[donsutherland1]

Weekly ENSO Anomalies:

Region 1+2: +2.4°C (No change)

Region 3: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 3.4: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 4: +1.7°C (-0.1°C)

[Yanksfan]

Weekly ENSO Anomalies:

Region 1+2: +2.4°C (No change)

Region 3: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 3.4: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 4: +1.7°C (-0.1°C)

Pretty safe to say the peak of this event has been attained. Depending on how fast it  cools  from here on out will determine our upcoming winter.

[snowman19]

Pretty safe to say the peak of this event has been attained. Depending on how fast it cools from here on out will determine our upcoming winter.

Maybe not. Give it another week, a new kelvin wave has formed. Region 3.4 may go up again

[MJO812]

Pretty safe to say the peak of this event has been attained. Depending on how fast it  cools  from here on out will determine our upcoming winter.

The end is finally near .

[donsutherland1]

Pretty safe to say the peak of this event has been attained. Depending on how fast it  cools  from here on out will determine our upcoming winter.

This could still be a weekly fluctuation, so we'll probably have to wait for some subsequent data before we know for sure whether the El Niño has already peaked. Such an outcome is certainly plausible.

[donsutherland1]

As the strong El Niño continues and the powerful polar vortex maintains an AO+ regime that has seen the first 7 days of December experience AO values of +1 or above, some historical context might be helpful. Since 1950, there have been 9 El Niño events that saw AO+ values for all of the first seven days of December: 1951-52, 1953-54, 1972-73, 1979-80, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2004-05, and 2006-07. The 1972-73 case was the only one in which the AO averaged > 0 for all three winter months (December, January, February).

 

Below is the percentage of cases for which the AO averaged > 0 during the above El Niño cases:

 

December: 100%

January: 67%

February: 33%

 

So, even as it might take awhile for sustained blocking to develop, the first seven days of December do not provide basis to assume that there won't be such blocking this winter. As noted on numerous occasions, the AO cannot reliably be forecast for more than a few weeks time, so one will need to continue to monitor the data. However, past El Niño cases that started out in similar fashion to winter 2015-16 did, in fact, wind up experiencing blocking, especially toward that latter part of winter.

[donsutherland1]

The September-November tri-monthly average for the ONI Index was +2.04°C. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events had peak tri-monthly anomalies higher than that figure.

 

Peak Tri-Monthly ONI:

1. 1997-98 +2.26°C, October-December

2. 1982-83: 2.12°C, November-January

3. 2015-16: +2.04°C, September-November (Still Increasing)

 

Below is a chart that compares the tri-monthly ONI anomalies for past strong El Niño events (Peak tri-monthly ONI of +1.5°C or above):

 

 

If the evolution of the ongoing El Niño event is consistent with the mean path of the above ENSO events, the October-December tri-monthly figure should finish at approximately +2.24°C +/- 0.10°C (largest difference in the last 3 months when rolling forward). That means that the current El Niño event is very likely to reach the 2nd highest ONI anomaly on record and there is some chance that it could approach or surpass the 1997-98 tri-monthly peak.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Peaked?

[PB GFI]

Peaked?

 

 

DT pointed out as the cold water continues to undercut the warmer water and spreads east , it could  be sign that the NINO is peaking . 

 

I had thought we would strengthen into the 2nd week of Dec and maybe there is 1 more tick up in a region or 2 , but we are nearing the end of this event . 

 

Weekly ENSO Anomalies:

Region 1+2: +2.4°C (No change)

Region 3: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 3.4: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)

Region 4: +1.7°C (-0.1°C)

 

 

 

 

 

[Wannabehippie]

The end is finally near .

Isn't there a delay in the atmosphere reaction, once the waters do start to cool off? Which would mean no immediate change in weather pattern?

[Utrex]

This El Niño isn't dying just yet.

[raindancewx]

Will be interesting to see how the AMO impacts the flavor of the winter this year with El Nino so much stronger. The November value implies a different pattern than last year - the AMO crashed hard from Oct 14 (0.33) to March 15 (-0.11), the figures this year imply a much warmer Atlantic in the winter although the Atlantic is cooling again relative to average so far. The cooling is taking place at a slower rate now, which to me implies the AMO will be positive (Nov-Apr AMO will be >~0.15) rather than neutral (Nov-Apr AMO of -0.15 to 0.15) like last year. September/October were trending very similarly in 2014-2015 for the AMO, it's interesting seeing November break away.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

 

Closest November AMO values (in El Nino years since 1931) are 1945, 1951, 1953, 1958, 2004, 2006. Some fairly legendary snow years in parts of the West. PDO should be less warm than last year too.

[PB GFI]

I do think Nov - Dec will start out A normal .

 

If we do happen to evolve to what I think could  happen I do like a back ended winter .

Jan - Feb - March type winter on tap .

 

Far away , so that`s just my 1st stab at it . Agree prob better to wait until the fall to make such a call .

Bump.

There is one earlier calling for AN November December.

But since I highlighted it , I will use this one.

So it's not like this was not seen.

All is not lost.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Bump.

There is one earlier calling for AN November December.

But since I highlighted it , I will use this one.

So it's not like this was not seen.

All is not lost.

Good call but you did side somewhat with climo.

This is Nino is not playing by the rules regardless. SoCal is dry the pac northwest stormy and the northern New England mountains snowless. All of these were opposite in 97-98 and I feel some of it has to do with the west coast warm pool shunting things north and locking in the east coast ridge

[PB GFI]

Good call but you did side somewhat with climo.

This is Nino is not playing by the rules regardless. SoCal is dry the pac northwest stormy and the northern New England mountains snowless. All of these were opposite in 97-98 and I feel some of it has to do with the west coast warm pool shunting things north and locking in the east coast ridge

Climo ? The NINO was still east based in July , I first had to be right that the NINO would migrate west , then I have to be right that the forcing remains out bet 160 - 180

No CLIMO was against me in July .

NOV/DEC 97 was cold across the CONUS

It may that as globe is warming the EL NINO seems to be getting warmer closer to the D/L .

97/98 was east based , so you naturally had greater forcing east .