Utrex Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It is true that there is lag between SSTs and the atmosphere, by about 1-2 months (since it takes time for the Pacific jet to strengthen). Still, there is a window, albeit small, for a more eastern transition of the El Niño; any effects on the atmosphere of this possible change would be felt by February-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It is true that there is lag between SSTs and the atmosphere, by about 1-2 months (since it takes time for the Pacific jet to strengthen). Still, there is a window, albeit small, for a more eastern transition of the El Niño; any effects on the atmosphere of this possible change would be felt by February-March. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 It is true that there is lag between SSTs and the atmosphere, by about 1-2 months (since it takes time for the Pacific jet to strengthen). Still, there is a window, albeit small, for a more eastern transition of the El Niño; any effects on the atmosphere of this possible change would be felt by February-March. 3 month lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The ship has sailed on an east based event....put it to bed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Oh, Dr. Cohen... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ All forecasters are using the strong El Niño winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 as analogs or paradigms for this upcoming winter and I don’t see why 2002-03 and 2009-10 couldn’t be analogs or paradigms as well. [Editor’s note: 2002-03 and 2009-10 were extremely snowy winters in the D.C. area].I see no physical or plausible reason why if El Niño is moderate it necessarily forces a cold winter but, if it’s just a little stronger, it forces a warm winter. Sure both the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were relatively mild but that is only a sample size of two. What justification is there to treat those two winters as there own special category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 November ERSST region 3.4 value was +2.35c. This brings the trimonthly SON value to +2.05c. The peak should be the OND trimonthly period, probably +2.0c to +2.2c. Very impressive, basin-wide, super Nino event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 November ERSST region 3.4 value was +2.35c. This brings the trimonthly SON value to +2.05c. The peak should be the OND trimonthly period, probably +2.0c to +2.2c. Very impressive, basin-wide, super Nino event. Nice adjustment ASO now 1.8 SON - 2.0, on the cusp of 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just when I thought the Nino was going to have a final peak in a week or two from now, mother nature just threw a huge curveball. Strong WWB organizing, new downwelling kelvin wave just formed and the SOI has gone severely negative. This thing is just a beast. The peak may have to wait more than a couple weeks, more warming is certain to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 2.3 for OND is actually a possibility, particularly if November gets adjusted up like Sep and Oct did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 2.1 +/- .1c looks like a good call... might be a little low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Could get to 1.8 - 2 But then pulls back west in D-J- F . FROM MAY. Low , but was fair from some distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 most of you lowballed it because you want it to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just looking back early in the thread , 1.8 to 2 was actually above the 1.5 that many were touting and this turned out pretty good from 6 months away. The pull back west was the weenie part but it was showing up in guidance so it had support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The difference between the monthly 3.4 OISSTv2 and ERSSTv4 is still larger than it was in 1997. But the November v4 is similar to November 1997. November 2015....v2...2.96.....v4......2.35 1997....v2...2.67.....v4......2.33 ENSO blog has a detailed post on why the two datasets can vary. Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/exactly-same-completely-different-why-we-have-so-many-different-ways v2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices v4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Just when I thought the Nino was going to have a final peak in a week or two from now, mother nature just threw a huge curveball. Strong WWB organizing, new downwelling kelvin wave just formed and the SOI has gone severely negative. This thing is just a beast. The peak may have to wait more than a couple weeks, more warming is certain to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Just when I thought the Nino was going to have a final peak in a week or two from now, mother nature just threw a huge curveball. Strong WWB organizing, new downwelling kelvin wave just formed and the SOI has gone severely negative. This thing is just a beast. The peak may have to wait more than a couple weeks, more warming is certain to follow Here is a view of the latest downwelling kelvin wave forming. This Nino isn't done yet, this is pretty incredible, just when you thought we were nearing the finish line. More warming to come. Couple this with the WWB and the SOI approaching -50, there will be more intensification. This is most likely the last time we will ever see something of this magnitude. Kelvin wave: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/672094689386983425 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Here is a view of the latest downwelling kelvin wave forming. This Nino isn't done yet, this is pretty incredible, just when you thought we were nearing the finish line. More warming to come. Couple this with the WWB and the SOI approaching -50, there will be more intensification. This is most likely the last time we will ever see something of this magnitude. Kelvin wave: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/672094689386983425 It definitely isn't going to collapse East to West abruptly. The massive warm pool might be so strong that it forces the trades to be weak as long as those huge ssts exist so far East. Eventually it will burn through the warm water supply and collapse Unless it weakened enough to diffuse heat Westward info the budding cold pool. Basically mixing both out and taking us back towards enso neutral. But it's more likely it uses up the warm pool and we get vaulted into Nina. That's incredible. Absolutely massive. Fu**ing 90F water out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Here is a view of the latest downwelling kelvin wave forming. This Nino isn't done yet, this is pretty incredible, just when you thought we were nearing the finish line. More warming to come. Couple this with the WWB and the SOI approaching -50, there will be more intensification. This is most likely the last time we will ever see something of this magnitude. Kelvin wave: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/672094689386983425 It definitely isn't going to collapse East to West abruptly. The massive warm pool might be so strong that it forces the trades to be weak as long as those huge ssts exist so far East. Eventually it will burn through the warm water supply and collapse Unless it weakened enough to diffuse heat Westward info the budding cold pool. Basically mixing both out and taking us back towards enso neutral. But it's more likely it uses up the warm pool and we get vaulted into Nina. That's incredible. Absolutely massive. Fu**ing 90F water out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 mei was up a fraction over last months readings...Still way up there at +2.308... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 soi has been positive for a few days on and off recently...1997 soi was still way lower around this time of the year... second check shows the soi went positive from day 314-321 in 1997...after it went back to very negative numbers...is this year's latest soi a blip on the radar like 1997?...twt... soi minimums ...yesterday's soi was third lowest number of this event...It went up today to -29.43... day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........204...-11.39 215...-15.82..........215...-37.87 233...-33.88..........233...-21.85 254...-17.27..........254...-33.75 260...-26.63..........260...-04.93 278...-32.98..........276...-49.77 308...-56.59..........308...-11.65 318....20.56..........318...-04.65 331...-44.58..........321....11.51 337...-21.19..........337...-47.59 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Just looking back early in the thread , 1.8 to 2 was actually above the 1.5 that many were touting and this turned out pretty good from 6 months away. The pull back west was the weenie part but it was showing up in guidance so it had support. Yeah, my thinking from mid June was a peak in the 1.7-2.0c range, which, at a time when the IRI mean forecast was around +1.5c, so we were already projecting above guidance. To me, forecasting a super Nino event from back in May/June would have been akin to forecasting a 60"+ winter in NYC in a winter outlook. It's simply not wise to make such risky, extreme predictions from long lead times. Not a knock on anyone who did believe we'd see a super event back in June, but the probability of verification is generally significantly lower when you forecast an extreme event. Truth be told, I don't believe anyone anticipated the orientation of this ENSO event -- not an east-based super Nino, but a basin-wide super Nino, with the predominant upper divergence cell similar to basin wide years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Yeah, my thinking from mid June was a peak in the 1.7-2.0c range, which, at a time when the IRI mean forecast was around +1.5c, so we were already projecting above guidance. To me, forecasting a super Nino event from back in May/June would have been akin to forecasting a 60"+ winter in NYC in a winter outlook. It's simply not wise to make such risky, extreme predictions from long lead times. Not a knock on anyone who did believe we'd see a super event back in June, but the probability of verification is generally significantly lower when you forecast an extreme event. Truth be told, I don't believe anyone anticipated the orientation of this ENSO event -- not an east-based super Nino, but a basin-wide super Nino, with the predominant upper divergence cell similar to basin wide years. Totally reasonable forecasting approach. A big big win for the dynamical models all the way from the spring barrier. After a few years of total failure, it was hard to trust their magnitude from that lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Totally reasonable forecasting approach. A big big win for the dynamical models all the way from the spring barrier. After a few years of total failure, it was hard to trust their magnitude from that lead time. I think the spring forecast barrier didn't really come into play this year since it was a two year event. Maybe initializing the El Nino stronger early on helped the models make a more accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Totally reasonable forecasting approach. A big big win for the dynamical models all the way from the spring barrier. After a few years of total failure, it was hard to trust their magnitude from that lead time. Yeah, the dynamical model mean proved to be much more accurate than the statistical guidance. Even the April-June dynamical guidance underestimated by quite a bit. This was one year in which the conservative approach failed. I think the spring forecast barrier didn't really come into play this year since it was a two year event. Maybe initializing the El Nino stronger early on helped the models make a more accurate forecast. APR.png MAY.png I disagree. The ECMWF and CFS were the only models to detect the super intensity from the spring. The mid April dynamical average peak was around +1.4c, with the statistical around +0.7c. Most of the dynamical didn't detect correct intensity until later in summer. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2015-April-quick-look/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 most of you lowballed it because you want it to snow I originally guessed 1.8 (1.7-1.9) back over the summer, so if you want to call that a low-ball, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Yeah, the dynamical model mean proved to be much more accurate than the statistical guidance. Even the April-June dynamical guidance underestimated by quite a bit. This was one year in which the conservative approach failed. I disagree. The ECMWF and CFS were the only models to detect the super intensity from the spring. The mid April dynamical average peak was around +1.4c, with the statistical around +0.7c. Most of the dynamical didn't detect correct intensity until later in summer. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2015-April-quick-look/ Those were the models that I was talking about. But most of the dynamical guidance was pointing to a very impressive event and eventually caught up to the CFS and Euro. It's interesting how the development of the El Nino was stopped in September 2012. The WWB and kelvin wave were really impressive in March 2014 but faded and the El Nino was weak for winter 14-15. The El Nino needed a third try last spring to launch into such strong territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 November ERSST region 3.4 value was +2.35c. This brings the trimonthly SON value to +2.05c. The peak should be the OND trimonthly period, probably +2.0c to +2.2c. Very impressive, basin-wide, super Nino event. I'd bet it's 2.3 next month. November will likely be adjusted upward...just like what happened the previous few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I just want to clarify for a second here. September 1.75 October 2.04 November 2.35 Current weekly is 3c...which translates to about 2.5C in ONI. In order to have a 2.0c average...October gets dropped...November gets no adjustment...and December somehow dropped like a rock the rest of the month and ends up at 1.61C. In order to even get 2.1C, October gets dropped, November gets no adjustment and December drops incredibly rapidly and it ends at 1.91C...after starting the month way above 2C... Is this just bad math or an agenda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 I just want to clarify for a second here. September 1.75 October 2.04 November 2.35 Current weekly is 3c...which translates to about 2.5C in ONI. In order to have a 2.0c average...October gets dropped...November gets no adjustment...and December somehow dropped like a rock the rest of the month and ends up at 1.61C. In order to even get 2.1C, October gets dropped, November gets no adjustment and December drops incredibly rapidly and it ends at 1.91C...after starting the month way above 2C... Is this just bad math or an agenda? I agree, we are surpassing 97-98 on the trimonthly level, strongest Nino in history right now IMO. Given the major SOI drop, the oncoming strong WWB, the continued subsurface warmth in 3.4 on east, and the latest downwelling kelvin wave that formed, we are at the very least, at minimum maintaining above +3.0C on the weeklies for several weeks, and the more likely outcome, warming in region 3.4 and 3 even further, I think region 3.4 maxes out at +3.2C on the weeklies, seems very, very likely right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 That's incredible. So I guess not collapsing into a modoki. Or peaking in late Nov very early December and abruptly collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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