Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[snowman19]

The latest model runs have the Nino peaking in region 3.4 at +3.2C or +3.3C come next month. This has been one hell of an extreme weather event and was a ton of fun tracking since the end of March. The final plateau should come in the next 2 weeks from now

[Utrex]

Monster downwelling pushing east. Expect this to impact Niño 1+2 by mid-December.

[bluewave]

You don't often get to see 4C+ areas spread out from 100W to 155W.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

Monster downwelling pushing east. Expect this to impact Niño 1+2 by mid-December.

Not all the sub surface heat will make it to the surface and the winds and what does will not make much of an impact.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah, I highly doubt Nino 1+2 will see much of a foreseeable increase. Zonal wind forecasts also show increasing easterlies over that region, making it harder for anything to surface.

 

[snowman19]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

[HailMan06]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

Never say never in the world of weather. But I agree that the chances of another Niño of such strength occuring again within the coming decades are extremely low.

[Snow_Miser]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

 

The one who has been constantly bringing up Nino 1+2 since this event began, was you:

 

That's impressive, region 3.4 up to +1.1C this early in the season and region 1+2 is ridiculously warm already

 

[mitchnick]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

I'll see it again every day and as many times a day as I want. There are plenty of sites that maintain old ssta maps.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

I wouldn't say we won't see another one of these in our lifetimes. I realize I'm younger than most here, but the 2 other major Ninos happened 15 years from eachother (82-83 to 97-98), and now this one is happening 18 years from the last (97-98 to 15-16). There's certainly at least a chance we'll all see another Nino break into the top 5... an even slighter chance that we'll beat #1, especially for people my age. 

 

BTW I don't know if this can officially be declared as the strongest on record. I think that's measured by ONI... in which case, we're going to stay below 97-98 (as we should), but still maintain a spot in the top 5. But if we're going by Region 3.4 alone, then yeah. But I think that's misleading because 97-98 was in a league of its own with regard to SSTA. ONI reflects that.

[thunderbolt]

Let's stop arguing about 1+2 already. 3.4 is what counts and on the weeklies this is the strongest Nino in history. It's something we will most likely never see again in our lifetimes. Enjoy witnessing history right now, let the chips fall where they may. If it turns out not to be a cold and snowy winter who cares? We just had 3 in a row

calm down there tiger you like to bring up region 3/4 other people like to bring up region 1/2 it is what it is

[Isotherm]

I wouldn't say we won't see another one of these in our lifetimes. I realize I'm younger than most here, but the 2 other major Ninos happened 15 years from eachother (82-83 to 97-98), and now this one is happening 18 years from the last (97-98 to 15-16). There's certainly at least a chance we'll all see another Nino break into the top 5... an even slighter chance that we'll beat #1, especially for people my age. 

 

BTW I don't know if this can officially be declared as the strongest on record. I think that's measured by ONI... in which case, we're going to stay below 97-98 (as we should), but still maintain a spot in the top 5. But if we're going by Region 3.4 alone, then yeah. But I think that's misleading because 97-98 was in a league of its own with regard to SSTA. ONI reflects that.

 

 

Agree. Even considering all the hype over this El Nino, it's likely to fall short of 1997-98 on the official ONI data. I've / we've discussed this quite a bit already, but there are numerous indicators which support the notion that 1997-98 was a more potent event. The westerly wind bursts are not nearly as strong or extensive / persistent in the eastern tropical Pacific. We have broken weekly records in region 4 and 3.4, but 1997-98 maintained anomalous warmth exceptionally long, with +2.5c region 3.4 temperatures lasting until the second week of February.

[dmillz25]

I want to see Niño 4 hit plus 2.5 in the future

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree. Even considering all the hype over this El Nino, it's likely to fall short of 1997-98 on the official ONI data. I've / we've discussed this quite a bit already, but there are numerous indicators which support the notion that 1997-98 was a more potent event. The westerly wind bursts are not nearly as strong or extensive / persistent in the eastern tropical Pacific. We have broken weekly records in region 4 and 3.4, but 1997-98 maintained anomalous warmth exceptionally long, with +2.5c region 3.4 temperatures lasting until the second week of February.

This, coupled with the eastern forcing, is why that seasons did not feature a second half come back.

[Utrex]

Agree. Even considering all the hype over this El Nino, it's likely to fall short of 1997-98 on the official ONI data. I've / we've discussed this quite a bit already, but there are numerous indicators which support the notion that 1997-98 was a more potent event. The westerly wind bursts are not nearly as strong or extensive / persistent in the eastern tropical Pacific. We have broken weekly records in region 4 and 3.4, but 1997-98 maintained anomalous warmth exceptionally long, with +2.5c region 3.4 temperatures lasting until the second week of February.

That is true, but we had a bunch more heat over in the WPac than in 1997. If our El Niño has westerly winds as strong as in 1997, we would have an unbelievably warm ENSO...

[JBG]

That's definitely not what I said but ok. I said I would not predict a cold and snowy winter myself based on how strong this Nino is nothing more nothing less

I worry more that Niño cuts out very fast, as it did in late 1972, and we get robbed of the back-loaded storms, just as we did that winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I worry more that Niño cuts out very fast, as it did in late 1972, and we get robbed of the back-loaded storms, just as we did that winter.

I wouldn't worry about that.

[snowman19]

Weekly ENSO region numbers 1+2: +2.4C, 3: +3.0C, 3.4: +3.0C, 4: +1.8C

[Morris]

Weekly ENSO region numbers 1+2: +2.4C, 3: +3.0C, 3.4: +3.0C, 4: +1.8C

From this:

18NOV2015 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8

[Deck Pic]

IF SON ONI is less than 2.0, ERSST is a joke....

[OSUmetstud]

IF SON ONI is less than 2.0, ERSST is a joke....

November would have to come in at 2.39C to make that happen.  Maybe October gets adjusted upward in the update?  I don't know.  

[Utrex]

Powerful downwelling has directly been heating up the Niño 1+2 region:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-79.17,1.69,524

[easternsnowman]

Powerful downwelling has directly been heating up the Niño 1+2 region:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-79.17,1.69,524

Too little too late.

[ClicheVortex2014]

There's been some big changes in the subsurface. I recommend you right click the images and open them in a new tab so you can click between the tabs to compare to see the changes.

 

 

These are the changes I see. I don't know the technical terms, but there's a temp gradient that's flattening out to a horizontal gradient. The cold subsurface waters seem to be attempting to "hide under" the warm waters that are closer to the surface. It also seems to be putting pressure on the warm subsurface blob in the east. Most of it refuses to peak at the surface, but some has... most notably at 120W. But the 5C+ gradient isn't willing to cross the 50 meter mark.

 

 

I dunno what this all means... I'm sure someone does and can expand on it.

[Deck Pic]

November would have to come in at 2.39C to make that happen.  Maybe October gets adjusted upward in the update?  I don't know.  

 

 2.25 would get us to 1.95 for SON assuming no adjustment to Oct

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[Utrex]

There's been some big changes in the subsurface. I recommend you right click the images and open them in a new tab so you can click between the tabs to compare to see the changes.

These are the changes I see. I don't know the technical terms, but there's a temp gradient that's flattening out to a horizontal gradient. The cold subsurface waters seem to be attempting to "hide under" the warm waters that are closer to the surface. It also seems to be putting pressure on the warm subsurface blob in the east. Most of it refuses to peak at the surface, but some has... most notably at 120W. But the 5C+ gradient isn't willing to cross the 50 meter mark.

I dunno what this all means... I'm sure someone does and can expand on it.

And this is interesting because the +6 degree mark has hit the South American coast. I posted a link to a website that depicts downwelling along the coast... Could the downwelling cause that +6 degree mark to bubble up to the surface (or weaken but remain between +4 and +5)? If so, things can get interesting.

Too little too late.

We shall see how long the downwelling lasts! It could potentially stir things in the Niño 1+2 territory (I know many of the East Coasters do not want to see this).

[easternsnowman]

And this is interesting because the +6 degree mark has hit the South American coast. I posted a link to a website that depicts downwelling along the coast... Could the downwelling cause that +6 degree mark to bubble up to the surface (or weaken but remain between +4 and +5)? If so, things can get interesting.

We shall see how long the downwelling lasts! It could potentially stir things in the Niño 1+2 territory (I know many of the East Coasters do not want to see this).

That will be problem for NYC south and the coastal plain not so much for elevated inland areas which I felt all along is where you want to be this winter if you like snow!

[snowman19]

The Nino is peaking right now, there are SST anomalies of +3C and +4C showing up today from region 3.4 to the South American coast. There should be one more spike in region 3.4 over the next week or two and that's it. The subsurface cold pool continues its push east

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think it really matters at this point.

[Yanksfan]

I don't think it really matters at this point.

I agree. It's how the other features around it sets up now.