dmillz25 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 ? Im asking is that something you want to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 29, 2015 Author Share Posted June 29, 2015 Im asking is that you want to occur?Still at a loss to answer that question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Still at a loss to answer that questionOk let me rephrase that. Is your ideal niño a strong to super one?I only ask because it seems that you're the only one that really wants that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 A super strong el nino means little snow for NYC area including Rockland county and single digit snowfall for south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 29, 2015 Author Share Posted June 29, 2015 Ok let me rephrase that. Is your ideal niño a strong to super one? I only ask because it seems that you're the only one that really wants that to happen Yeah....Ok......ummm sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 A super strong el nino means little snow for NYC area including Rockland county and single digit snowfall for south of NYC. we're due for a clunker regardless. Outside of 11-12, we've had a hell of a run going back to 08-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 we're due for a clunker regardless. Outside of 11-12, we've had a hell of a run going back to 08-09 I actually don't think we'll see a clunker this year because the pattern we've been in for a couple years now hasn't changed. Also I don't see a 97/98 Nino in terms of strength and it should be on the downside as we approach winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 No super El Nino here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 The daily index just passed +1.5C (strong threshold) for Nino region 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The daily index just passed +1.5C (strong threshold) for Nino region 3.4 I like strong , not super . My peak was always 1.8 . I like how ALL the modeling warms the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region and ALL the models slope this off once past November . They ALL keep the 3.4 region warmer than the 1.2 region for the winter , so that is not a winter time NEG for our area And ALL of the modeling keeps the NEG EPO intact . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 we're due for a clunker regardless. Outside of 11-12, we've had a hell of a run going back to 08-09 If I lived in the NYC area of south of it I would start worrying about the upcoming winter weather of perhaps lack of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 If I lived in the NYC area of south of it I would start worrying about the upcoming winter weather of perhaps lack of it. Huh? Are you saying who ever lives south of NYC should start worrying? Still a bit too early for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11. Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 If I lived in the NYC area of south of it I would start worrying about the upcoming winter weather of perhaps lack of it. Based on what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I like strong , not super . My peak was always 1.8 . I like how ALL the modeling warms the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region and ALL the models slope this off once past November . They ALL keep the 3.4 region warmer than the 1.2 region for the winter , so that is not a winter time NEG for our area And ALL of the modeling keeps the NEG EPO intact . That's the key IMO. Need another winter of that and the goods will be delivered yet again. There was a post in the climate change forum that noted some cooling of the warm waters S of Alaska, let's hope that is temporary since that's a big driver of the -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's the key IMO. Need another winter of that and the goods will be delivered yet again. There was a post in the climate change forum that noted some cooling of the warm waters S of Alaska, let's hope that is temporary since that's a big driver of the -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 looks like a 2009-10 redux. No thanks for my neck of the woods. On another note, what a global TORCH that is. 85% of the globe is well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 With the growing Nino and crazy global torch, I think we're going to see some extreme global weather with it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 If I lived in the NYC area of south of it I would start worrying about the upcoming winter weather of perhaps lack of it.Strong Ninos tend to be better farther south, actually. Remember DCA/BWI in 09-10 and NJ/PHL in 87-88. The Deep South had some winter weather in 72-73 while winter was absent further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Strong Ninos tend to be better farther south, actually. Remember DCA/BWI in 09-10 and NJ/PHL in 87-88. The Deep South had some winter weather in 72-73 while winter was absent further north.Snow may have been absent, but winter certainly wasn't. Besides, many of us would take 09-10 and run (it was obviously progressively worse from south to north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Huh? Are you saying who ever lives south of NYC should start worrying? Still a bit too early for that Agree, I'd wait to see where we are come November. If there is a super Nino (above +2.0c) at that point, it may be time to worry, but we have almost 5 months to go before that point. What you definitely don't want to see at that point is an east-based Nino like PBGFI said. That would be a worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 This looks like a gradient pattern to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 That Jamstec looks like it's currently on the warm side of the guidance envelope for the eventual El Nino strength. It was calling for a moderate El Nino last winter on the June update but a weak one verified. ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2014.gif The CFS is now showing the strongest July WWB in history, way surpassing anything July of '97 had. The cross equatorial tropical cyclones are just boosting the WWB even more. This is an interesting period coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Nice, looks very stormy with baroclinic zone near the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Based on what ? If we get a super strong el nino and if we don't have some blocking like 09-10 to hel.p we have not had that in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 As long as we have a negative epo that could offset a lack of blocking on the atlantic side, I was talking about the philly and NYC areas being in trouble with a super strong el nino like a 97-98 one which also had limited snow in the dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 As long as we have a negative epo that could offset a lack of blocking on the atlantic side, I was talking about the philly and NYC areas being in trouble with a super strong el nino like a 97-98 one which also had limited snow in the dc area. Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area. Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter. Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half. However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible. Lotta "ifs" there . A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter. Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area. Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter. Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half. However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible. Lotta "ifs" there . A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter. Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. . Calling bust now. LOL. Just taking the law of averages into account, we're due for a dud. I don't like the fact that the NAO appears to have gone into a long term positive state. I'm banking on the -EPO saving us yet again this winter and hoping for a quick drop off in the Nino. Still too early, but this will be interesting to watch unfold. With regard to Atlantic canes, assuming this strong nino will squelch most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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