downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Starting to move NNW pretty good now this thing will be making landfall in 8-12 hrs unless it stalls out again.......I also bet there are hurricane force gust in the NE side of the COC right now no problem..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Had one of the feeder bands go over us in Harnett Co. ... a monsoon-sort of downpour. No wind to speak of, no lightning. Just suddenly thump! It kept up for about an hour, too. It'll be interesting to check the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Had a very quick storm come thru but only dropped .11". Wind blew pretty good when it came thru, probably up near 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Impressive.... 1.21" in 70 minutes with several rumbles of thunder. Didn't see any lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I would be shocked if anyone other than Cape Fear reports sustained tropical storm force conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 Has sustained TS force conditions and its roughly 50 miles NNW of the center.....I think all the south beaches get decent winds and rain nothing strong enough to do any damage etc but it will be a stormy night in ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Excited to see what recon finds, satellite presentation is improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Excited to see what recon finds, satellite presentation is improving Yeah sucks they are only doing 12 hr fixes with a storm that's going to impact the US..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 When is the next recon? Edit: never mind they are enroute now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 When is the next recon? IF you have google earth use this link and click on the Google Earth link on the right side under Live Atlantic recon mapping to track the flights and the drops etc....its not the quickest site that updates but it gives you a good idea....currently there is no plane inbound I think the next flight should get to the storm around 8-9 tonight it takes it a 1-2 hrs to reach it from LA.....and its not lifted off yet according to that link. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 IF you have google earth use this link and click on the Google Earth link on the right side under Live Atlantic recon mapping to track the flights and the drops etc....its not the quickest site that updates but it gives you a good idea....currently there is no plane inbound I think the next flight should get to the storm around 8-9 tonight it takes it a 1-2 hrs to reach it from LA.....and its not lifted off yet according to that link. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Recon just left a little while ago and they will be flying out to inspect this suspected HURRICANE. lol. Recon will get to the storm around 8 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Outflow has gotten better on the east side and thunderstorms continue to blossom http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Outflow has gotten better on the east side and thunderstorms continue to blossom http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif To little to late if it was 150 miles further SE it might have time to make a run at a weak cane but as it is, its run out of room and I am not sure how efficient it is at getting the FL winds down to the surface....the Frying Pan Buoy isn't really going nuts and it should be getting close to the center if on its next update we don't see gust over 60 mph then that should be a big hint as to what this storm will bring to the immediate coast from Cape Fear up to Topsoil....all we will see inland is gusty wins and rain.....but I will consider it a win if we get gust over 40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah I agree a little too late.. Radar velocities are pretty high but like you said probably not mixing them down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah I agree a little too late.. Radar velocities are pretty high but like you said probably not mixing them down to the surface It is getting rough here in the Southport/Boiling Spring Lakes area. You can hear the wind and rain beating already. Edit: Anyone else see the eye forming? That is a clear indication of a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 It is getting rough here in the Southport/Boiling Spring Lakes area. You can hear the wind and rain beating already. Edit: Anyone else see the eye forming? That is a clear indication of a hurricane. Just because it has an eye doesn't necessarily make it a hurricane. You have been all over the place with this one man. First you said it was dying, now you say it is a hurricane. Lets just wait and see what recon has to say instead of speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Just because it has an eye doesn't necessarily make it a hurricane. You have been all over the place with this one man. First you said it was dying, now you say it is a hurricane. Lets just wait and see what recon has to say instead of speculating. I have been all over the place and so has the forecasters too lol. I guess I would make a good weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I have been all over the place and so has the forecasters too lol. I guess I would make a good weatherman. Meh the forecast so far has been right on the money.....weakish TS at best has been the call all along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Recon just found 54 mph surface 10-sec in NW quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Meh the forecast so far has been right on the money.....weakish TS at best has been the call all along.... This thing is not a weak TS it is a borderline hurricane and the structure and wind speeds back that up. They were preaching a landfall in Charleston, SC and a very weak TS. Hell almost everyone thought it was going to die out the other night and it sure did look like that a few times after that too. I am not a weatherman of course and well a lot of people on here are not I am sure. I have rode out many upon many TS storms and Hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 This thing is not a weak TS it is a borderline hurricane and the structure and wind speeds back that up. They were preaching a landfall in Charleston, SC and a very weak TS. Hell almost everyone thought it was going to die out the other night and it sure did look like that a few times after that too. I am not a weatherman of course and well a lot of people on here are not I am sure. I have rode out many upon many TS storms and Hurricanes. I think it was you preaching that it was going to die... The storm looks to be dying. Good bye Ana chances. Lol what storm are you looking at? Has some lightning near the center which indicates some strengthening, recon data found surface winds of 44 mph at one spot on the SE side so it is above the TS threshold. GFS says moisture will have a hard time making it anywhere beyond the immediate coast, but if this thing lingers long enough it will cause problems. While it may weaken in the near future, good convection looks to fire up Saturday around the CoC so I wouldn't call anything off just yet. It does look to be dying lol either that or limping to the finish line. Diurnal minima. More than likely when we the normal nocturnal maxima, renewed convection refires, much like overnight last night. Pretty typical in developing systems like this one. Yeah the Dmin didn't hurt it to bad, it didn't have a pressure spike it just maintained and it has the dry air issue as well, lets see if Dmax is good to it..... Yeah I think in my opinion that it dissipates later tonight. Maybe so but really it is dying out so not much to talk about. it's not dying. this is different than a warm core system. There is no evidence this is going to happen, all the models hold it together and bring it inshore, add to that that it was never suppose to be much more than it is right now and inland areas would get mostly light to moderate rain with the outside potential that it would be more rain. From the beginning EVERY met office trying to forecast this thing has said the forecast was low confidence due to the erratic steering flow etc.....so its hard to say the forecast has been awful when the flat out tell you they are not sure about the timing or track. Ana does appear to be trying to tighten up a bit this morning, really decent blow up in the S/SE side if fact one of the better ones I have seen the last day or so but its still away from the actual "COC" . The plane also found a pressure of 1001 MB that's down from 1005 MB....the buoys to the NW also have pressure rises and drops in wind speed so that plus the stronger storms on the opposite side and the drop of a few MB's suggest to me at least that ANA is actually getting a bit better organized or at least trying to consolidate a better COC. Let us see if we can get an eye first lol. I noticed the same now looking back at it. It is trying its best but sometimes that is not enough. Then 8 hrs later..... I think it can reach hurricane strength tonight. I was ready to mark it off but this thing is a fighter. Well that's a bit of a stretch IMO....that would require it to really wrap the center with storms and get that dry air choked out for them to pull the trigger on that.....the surface winds were never above 50-55 mph so the storm isn't really organized enough to get those stronger FL winds to the surface. However it looks to be pretty much truly a tropical storm with winds 50-55 mph which is a bit more that looked possible yesterday. I guess anything is possible though and if it does really well overnight and gets more symmetrical it could make a run at a cane but that is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely IMO with the current setup. It has really done great today though and right now the loops show a system really trying to be something so who knows....its moving NW a bit already to and they will most likely speed the timetable up at 11 Stop making us Tarheel fans look bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I think it was you preaching that it was going to die... Then 8 hrs later..... I preached that the storm was looking like it was dying and it sure did most wrote the storm off and here we stand letting the chance of it being a hurricane be an argument. Let us not fight and understand that I do not care how much stuff I got wrong because I am not a weatherman. I am just letting you know that even the forecasters got this one wrong in terms of track and intensity. Even the models did over and over again (of course the models are about as accurate as me the dumb weather guy). I SUCK at predicting the weather but at least I admit it and so what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 On to the storm. Is it an eye or dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 No, it's not an eye, just a hole in the clouds. That's not even where the coc is located! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 No, it's not an eye, just a hole in the clouds. That's not even where the coc is located! Where is the COC then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I have been all over the place and so has the forecasters too lol. I guess I would make a good weatherman. Let's first concentrate on becoming a good poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Let's first concentrate on becoming a good poster. I have been a bad boy haven't I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Let's first concentrate on becoming a good poster. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Just like most message boards this one is dying. It is mainly because the people who are wrong a lot call out people for being wrong who express their opinions (right or wrong) and those people in turn say well there is always twitter. You folks have a good night and remember weather is something ALL people can and will get wrong a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Recon reports show FL level winds are 68kt ~78 mph just wish we could get it to mix down to the surface lol pressure relatively unchanged, if this would have been later on in the season with warmer waters this could have been trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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