Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ok guys, this one is going to linger for a bit on the NC/SC coast so I think we need a separate thread to document/discuss observations. 4km NAM really gets this thing going later this afternoon with gust of 65+mph. It wouldn't take much for this to reach hurricane threshold, but I still have my doubts. One thing is for sure though, it is in a good spot to strengthen over the next day or so. Most models bring good rain to the Triangle and the whole Eastern part of NC so I think we could see a bit of flash flooding inland by the end of the weekend. Murrells Inlet, SC through Southport, NC looks to be ground zero for landfall but places like Wilmington and Jacksonville will take the brunt of the rain. It will be interesting to see how the Cape Fear River reacts with the storm moving more perpendicular to the coast compared to a parallel approach. Below are some great webcams to watch the storm come ashore. Not as many chasers are going to chase imo because of the threat out in the plains, so these webcams will most likely be the best source for video. If this weekend wasn't Mothers Day, I would have probably made the trip to ILM but I think I will save my hurricane chase for something later in the year. All and all this storm will be a prolonged event with strong rip currents, storm surge, and torrential rain that could pack a somewhat unexpected punch to those along the SC/NC coast today into tomorrow! Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd http://www.crownreef.com/webcam/ http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/compass-cove-schooner-live-cam http://www.beachcove.com/webcam/ http://www.breakers.com/myrtle-beach-web-cam/ http://www.oceancreek.com/webcam/ http://www.northmyrtlebeachchamber.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=Webcam&category=Main Folly Beach, SC: http://surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php Murrells Inlet, SC: http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/dead-dog-saloon-live-cam-marshwalk Isle of Palms, SC: http://www.carolinacoastsurfclub.org/surfcamnew.shtml Holden Beach, NC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc http://www.brunswicklandrealty.com/beachcam Southport, NC: http://www.fishyfishycafe.com http://www.beachcamsusa.com/me/southport/southport-maine-webcam Bald Head Island, NC: http://rentals.coastalurge.com/bhi-marina-cam/ Wrightsville Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/index.php http://www.surfchex.com/wrightsville-beach-waterway-live-sup-cam.php Kure Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Carolina Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Haha damn just posted this in the other thread put will stick it here as well if we get some strong storms I would watch out for weak spin ups.... They got this now as my forecast for Sunday night Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 68. Southeast wind 12 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Haha damn just posted this in the other thread put will stick it here as well if we get some strong storms I would watch out for weak spin ups.... They got this now as my forecast for Sunday night Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 68. Southeast wind 12 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Yeah man helicity is ramping up down your way. 12z 4km NAM kepts the CoC coming ashore farther south then what the 6z showed. It also shows a higher peak wind gust compared to the 6z with the 12z now showing a max gust of 77.2kts (88mph). This gust should occur offshore, but that would certainly put it up to Cat One status. We will see, but this one should be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Of course the plane would be there a hr before this latest flare up begins, if the center is under all that heaviest convection and that can maintain through the afternoon it could get its act together but in order to really make a run at something more than a meh storm, it needs to pick up speed, and cross the cooler waters quicker if it keeps the speed of 3mph till landfall it will be sitting over 70 degree water to long and that should kill it.....its also pretty small its 100 miles offshore of ILM and the west side is pretty dry unless your right on the center....it will end up being a very localized event with the heaviest rains being those in a area from the COC out say 50-60 miles.....especially N and NE of the center ( yay me lol ) Of course I just had a torrential downpour that lasted 5 mins and when and how many of those hits you will greatly effect rain totals..we had one yesterday from ANA that came in and dumped .45" of rain in 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 Frying Pan Shoals buoy gusting to 50 or so off and on and its a good 60-70 miles north of the center so that's not to shabby I suspect the immediate coast N of the center coming in will see winds 30-40 gusting to 50 and locally 60-70 in storms if the strength stays the same.....especially Cape Fear etc. Water temp is 76 there though so that's up a few degrees from the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Rain down our way has been spotty at best, I've had only 03, but areas down towards Havelock and points east have had much more rain and heavy downpours. Looking at the radar it looks like the first real big band of rain is heading inland from just south of J-ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks better than earlier. Also looking at radar, the MLC and LLC appear to be dislocated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Rain down our way has been spotty at best, I've had only 03, but areas down towards Havelock and points east have had much more rain and heavy downpours. Looking at the radar it looks like the first real big band of rain is heading inland from just south of J-ville. I am just east of Greenville on Hwy 33 and we are getting downpours every 20 mins as the band we are in rotates through and the sky looks very much like we are getting a tropical system.....I can hear the rain pounding on the roof as I type. Looks like some weak rotation on the cells headed for Jville wouldn't be surprised to see some spouts or weak tornados...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 I am just east of Greenville on Hwy 33 and we are getting downpours every 20 mins as the band we are in rotates through and the sky looks very much like we are getting a tropical system.....I can hear the rain pounding on the roof as I type. Looks like some weak rotation on the cells headed for Jville wouldn't be surprised to see some spouts or weak tornados...... Yep, N Topsail Beach/Surf City, NC and Sneads Ferry, NC need to watch those cells. Decent structure per radar and could be cycling. Topsail Island webcam: http://www.surfchex.com/topsail-island-web-cam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks better than earlier. Also looking at radar, the MLC and LLC appear to be dislocated though. Looks like a borderline hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 The cell currently N of White Lake, NC heading towards Elizabethtown/Dublin, NC has good shape to it and is developing in an environment of 200 Shr M2/S2 so that one could also be one to watch. Has marginal rotation on it as of now but looks to be strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Sorry --- this made me seriously LOL.... 2 ESE Wilmington [New Hanover Co, NC] PUBLIC reports TROPICAL STORM at 12:20 PM EDT -- TREE DOWN ON PINE CONE ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Sorry --- this made me seriously LOL.... LOL WOW THEY BLAMED THE STORM It isn't even close enough for that ahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks like a borderline hurricane. Let's not get carried away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Let's not get carried away... Why is that carried away? I have seen worse looking storms get called hurricanes. It looks extremely impressive and better than last night and it was 60 MPH last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks like a borderline hurricane.Lmao. Well according to TWC its a winter storm. Their headline just said "Winter Storm Ana spins Closer to Coast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Lmao. Well according to TWC its a winter storm. Their headline just said "Winter Storm Ana spins Closer to Coast". LOL Well all I know is it is the best it has looked right now and last night it was 60 mph. I bet if recon was in that storm it would show hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Why is that carried away? I have seen worse looking storms get called hurricanes. It looks extremely impressive and better than last night and it was 60 MPH last night. I would hardly call it "extremely impressive". It's shallow, vertically slanted, convectively lopsided, and plagued by dry air on the western semicircle. For early May, compared to yesterday, etc., yes... it looks better. It's definitely not 65 kts though. This is "extremely impressive". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Really for the first time she has all the dry air pushed away from the center, and the center appears to be more or less co located under the small CDO that has formed, at worst its right under the SW side of it but the center should have storms on all sides and the MLC it tightening up on the ILM radar ......there is dry air around but there in none currently being drawn into the COC, so while its not nearly a hurricane it is a fairly healthy TS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-wv-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Our dew point has really shot up in the last few hours. Currently sitting at 73. Temp is at 81 and the sun is shining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Really for the first time she has all the dry air pushed away from the center, and the center appears to be more or less co located under the small CDO that has formed, at worst its right under the SW side of it but the center should have storms on all sides and the MLC it tightening up on the ILM radar ......there is dry air around but there in none currently being drawn into the COC, so while its not nearly a hurricane it is a fairly healthy TS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-wv-short.html I disagree if it looks better than yesterday and it was 60 mph it could very well be a hurricane. By extremely impressive I did mean for this time, this storm, and in this water so yeah. I have seen impressive and been in impressive storms being from North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looking at the water vapor image. Does it seem like a center is forming right in the middle of the green blob? Also noticed that the dense overcast is expanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looking at the water vapor image. Does it seem like a center is forming right in the middle of the green blob? Also noticed that the dense overcast is expanding. Its not vertically stacked so the rotation you see on the ILM radar is not the actual surface center its the MLC which isn't the best I can tell over the LLC......on the Vis loop you cant see a naked swirl so the LLC is tucked up on the SW side of the main area of storms but it still isn't under the MLC yet....if it does get there you would see the main area of storms expand pretty quick I would think. To bad there isn't a plane out there...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Its not vertically stacked so the rotation you see on the ILM radar is not the actual surface center its the MLC which isn't the best I can tell over the LLC......on the Vis loop you cant see a naked swirl so the LLC is tucked up on the SW side of the main area of storms but it still isn't under the MLC yet....if it does get there you would see the main area of storms expand pretty quick I would think. To bad there isn't a plane out there...... Me and you finally agree on something about the storm lol. The Hurricane Hunters should be out there. They have been cheap on flights the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ragged eye feature beginning to take shape on radar with lightning present.. Lets see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Been at work all day so been unable to check but surprised at the presentation on satellite, if this keeps up going into Dmax I would not be surprised if it did strengthen. Here in jville we have had some nasty little cells come thru on and off, we'll have to start looking for weak spin ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ragged eye feature beginning to take shape on radar with lightning present.. Lets see where this goes. Yeah lol there is a "eye" on the vis and IR loops now too......prolly means it is stacked up or darn close.....need a plane out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 We're on the very northern edge of this, but it's sliding up towards us... AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ANBAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR FREMONT TO NEAR LILLINGTONTO LAURINBURG... MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESESHOWERS.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...SANFORD...LAURINBURG...SOUTHERN PINES...SMITHFIELD...ROCKINGHAM...RAEFORD...MOUNT OLIVE AND LILLINGTON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS... AND MAY LEADTO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODEDROADWAYS.DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH A FEW OF THESESHOWERS. IF THESE SHOWERS INTENSIFY AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS... AWARNING MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 If you want to see vertically stacked , take a peek at Dolly Parton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Bonus ----- we've got THUNDER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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